The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Barnack]

For RT audience score it is important to compare them with Rt score at similar release day's, they tend and very often go down after the previews, after the first weekend and again after home video release has you get less and less the perfect enthusiast target audience to watch the movie.

[Dandeak2000]

Rampage hits $2.4M Thursday

 

Truth or Dare at $750K

Edited April 13, 2018 by Mike Hunt

[Jaybee]

9 minutes ago, Mike Hunt said:

Rampage hits $2.4M Thursday

somewhere between CI and SA! decent ?

[YLF]

20 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

I'm so thankful that my IMAX has stopped doing that.  They did this with TLJ, but since Black Panther's there's been a trend against it.  Infinity War's showings look like:

 

Thursday Night Previews:

2D IMAX - 7:00PM

3D IMAX - 10:10PM

 

Rest of Week 1:

2D IMAX - 12:00PM, 6:30PM, 9:40PM

3D IMAX - 3:15PM

 

Youre so lucky. My AMC doesn't do that at all. They sometimes offer IMAX showings in 2D, but its rare. For infinity war they aren't offering any 2D IMAX showings purposely. 

 

Are you in Cali?

[Barnack]

58 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

somewhere between CI and SA! decent ?

Decent for sure (that even above Pacific Rim Uprising and that was a sequel and quite higher than Tomb Raider 2.1, this should normally have a better multi), but should be more frontloaded multi wise than CI.

 

You can have a bunch of comp here:

 

http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html

 

Since 2014 opening between 2.1 and 3.1:

 

Title	Preview	opening weekend	OW previewsulti
San Andreas	3.10	54.59	17.61
Warcraft	3.10	24.17	7.80
All Eyez one	3.10	26.44	8.53
Cars 3	2.80	53.69	19.18
Lucy	2.74	43.90	16.02
Interstellar	2.70	47.51	17.60
Fantastic Four	2.70	25.69	9.51
The Mummy	2.66	31.67	11.91
The Purge: Anarchy	2.64	29.82	11.29
Ted 2	2.60	33.51	12.89
Neighbors	2.56	49.03	19.15
The Martian	2.50	54.31	21.72
The Divergent Series: Allegiant	2.35	29.03	12.35
Pacific Rim Uprising	2.35	28.12	11.96
Cinderella	2.30	67.88	29.51
The Revenant	2.30	39.83	17.32
The LEGO Batmanovie	2.20	53.00	24.09
John Wick: Chapter 2	2.20	30.44	13.84
Hercules	2.10	29.80	14.19
Annabelle	2.10	37.13	17.68
Pitch Perfect 3	2.10	19.93	9.49
Tomb Raider	2.10	23.63	11.25
			14.74

 

Average opening weekend was around 15x time the previews, if we remove more family title like Cinderella/Lego batman/Car 3 that do logically less in night time, it goes down to 14x.

 

So 2.4m can give a 33 to 36m OW like tracking suggested quite easily, if it does Lucy multi would go at 38.5m if it does Tomb Raider/The Mummy/PRu just 27m. Because it is not really a franchise title like those, I would imagine closer to 38m than 27m (around 33 to 36).

 

If it does San Andreas good (17.6x), that would go to a big 42m !

 

 

 

Edited April 13, 2018 by Barnack

[Barnack]

Today sales according to (friday the 13th crazy old for AQP ?It is selling online a 250% the rate of a new Blumhouse Horror movie that should be doing at least 13/14M, both being PG-13 horror movie making it maybe a bit valid to do a direct comparison in fandango sales) :

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

Column1	Column2
A Quiet	22251
Avengers	17508
Rampage	13475
Blumhouse	8782
Ready Pla	6220
Blockers	5384
Black Pan	2851
Isle of	2788
Tyler Perry	1753
Chappaqu	1724
I Can Only	1266
Beirut	1004
The Mira	947
Super Troo	850
Sherlock	604
Love, Si	564
Pacific	554
A Wrinkle	498
The Metr	274
Sgt. Stu	251

 

 

 

Yesterday ratio

Rampage	7891
Blumhous	4469

 

With a 2.4m and 750k box office respectively (Rampage did 3.2x Truth or dare box office while selling 1.76x time on fandango, way more walkup heavy, if the ratio stay similar with Rampage selling 1.53 what truth or dare it's selling today we could see a true friday 2.79 time bigger for Rampage). Could be a bad sign to see T&D gaining ratio on Rampage in pre-sales like this, specially that later this night it should become more toward the horror title, but it could be a Friday the 13th uptick and will replace itself saturday.

 

If Rampage end up doing 2.8x Truth or dare that would be excellent, if T&D do 13m, that a 36m OW)

 

 

Edited April 13, 2018 by Barnack

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

 

Sgt. Stu

251

Gotta admit I'm surprised this number is greater than 0

[Barnack]

Last 4 hours fandango sales

 

Column1	Column2
A Quiet	5209
Rampage	3290
Blumhous	2664
Blockers	1375
Ready Pl	1362
Avengers	1133
Black Pa	602
Isle of	566
Tyler Pe	406
Chappaqu	403
I Can On	323
Beirut	238
The Mira	207
Love, Si	136
A Wrinkl	125
Sherlock	107
Pacific	101
Sgt. Stu	88
Super Tr	78

 

Rampage / Blumhouse Truth or Dare fandango ratio down to 1.23 in the last 4 hours, AQP running 150+% over everything else.

 

Last Hour:

A Quiet	884
Rampage	486
Blumhous	441
Blockers	244
Ready Pl	196
Avengers	149
Isle of	99
Black Pa	94
Tyler Pe	69
Chappaqu	67
I Can On	55

[poweranimals]

Does that mean Rampage is going to be #2 this weekend?

[Barnack]

16 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Does that mean Rampage is going to be #2 this weekend?

Probably yes, deadline last update had AQP around 33m for this weekend with Rampage 27-28m:

http://deadline.com/2018/04/dwayne-johnson-rampage-box-office-weekend-a-quiet-place-1202363694/

 

That ranking seem to fit ticket sales, Rampage make more money by ticket sold (many of those are 3d, imax) obviously, is maybe bit more walk up and  is certainly less at night title like horror can be and should be stronger during day times, but that margin is quite wide.

Edited April 14, 2018 by Barnack

[dxmatrixdt]

14 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Isle of	566
Chappaqu	403
Beirut	238
The Mira	207
Love, Si	136
A Wrinkl	125
Sherlock	107
Pacific	101
Sgt. Stu	88

 

 

Last Hour:

Isle of	99
Chappaqu	67
I Can On	55

strong # for Beirut and a good recovery for Chappaquiddick amidst direct competition.  

[poweranimals]

55 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Probably yes, deadline last update had AQP around 33m for this weekend with Rampage 27-28m:

http://deadline.com/2018/04/dwayne-johnson-rampage-box-office-weekend-a-quiet-place-1202363694/

 

That ranking seem to fit ticket sales, Rampage make more money by ticket sold (many of those are 3d, imax) obviously, is maybe bit more walk up and  is certainly less at night title like horror can be and should be stronger during day times, but that margin is quite wide.

Sounds like Rampage is DOA.

[LeoC]

IW opening week may beat TFA?!

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-oceans-8-avengers-infinity-war/

Edited April 14, 2018 by LeoC

[Porthos]

IW GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-13 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

3/118 (nc)

 

2D:  1/77 (nc)

3D:  2/41 (nc)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 84 showings>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

4 (+1)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

6 (-1)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

29 (+2)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 (nc)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/215 (nc)    

St: 0/216 (nc)

Su: 0/209 (nc)  

 

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (84/118 showings):

100%:      3  (nc)

90-99%: 10  (nc)

80-89%:  17  (+1)

70-79%:  20  (-1)

60-69%:  14  (+2)

50-59%:   5  (-1)

40-49%:   7  (+1)

30-39%:   3  (-1)

20-29%:   1  (-1)

10-19%:   4  (nc)

0-9%:       0  (nc)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	118	3541	11295	68.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 94

---

2.6858 times as many seats sold as Black Panther at this point in time (7754 vs 2887)

[Cap]

15 hours ago, YLF said:

Youre so lucky. My AMC doesn't do that at all. They sometimes offer IMAX showings in 2D, but its rare. For infinity war they aren't offering any 2D IMAX showings purposely. 

 

Are you in Cali?

Alas, No.  Been there, done that.  Cost of living was too high.  I'd go back in a heartbeat, though.  I'm up in Maine now.

 

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Said it before; will keep saying it coz it's true.  The 250 million dollar question is:  Are these presales eating into the normal 'walkups' Marvel is justifiably famous for?  And if so, by how much.

 

The subquestion is:  How many presales are shifting from FSS to Preview night, if any, and how many Week One/Two presales are shifting to Weekend One?

 

That might be the difference between a 225 OW and a 250 OW.

I have partial answers for Maine.  No.  The presales are NOT eating up walk-ups, because up here there's neither (A) pre-sales nor (B) pre-sales data due to lack of reserved seating.  Seriously.

 

Only three local theaters offer reserved seating.  They stand at:

 

Fancy Recliners: 

Thursday Previews (4 Showings): 127/331 [38.36%]

FSS (10 Showings A Day): 195/2787 [6.99%]

 

Love Seat Recliners

Thursday Previews (6 Showings): 114/278 [41.00%]

FFS (10 Showings): 146/1920 [7.60%]

 

Reserved Stadium

Thursday Previews (6 Showings): 195/1418 [13.75%]

FFS (36 Showings): 158/9842 [1.60%]

 

* This theater actually has a lower seat count on Saturday (of 454) due to the Met Opera screening at 12:55PM in the Largest Theater They Have.  

 

The elephant in the room is the IMAX theater doesn't have reserved seating.  It has scheduled 7 showings on Thursday, and 14 showings a day on FSS.  It makes sense the Reserved Stadium theater is dead: it's the same company and it's only 20 minutes from the IMAX.  It's also the only IMAX in the state, and the next closest one is 80 miles away.  I have no idea how the IMAX is selling, because there staff is hilariously obtuse about everything. They didn't even know pre-sales were happening when I bought mine.

[Lordmandeep]

The presales at local theaters is outside of previews here.

[Dandeak2000]

Pro.Boxoffice predictions

 

Avengers: Infinity War $235 (+4%)/$600 (+2%)

Ocean's 8 $42/$145

Edited April 14, 2018 by Mike Hunt

[That One Girl]

7 minutes ago, Mike Hunt said:

Pro.Boxoffice predictions

 

Avengers: Infinity War $235 (+4%)/$600 (+2%)

Ocean's 8 $42/$145

 

lmfao @ that IW multi

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, That Ambitious Guy said:

 

lmfao @ that IW multi

Ikr, seems too low. 

[MCKillswitch123]

19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Ikr, seems too low. 

Too low? Not even close to low enough. It's gonna be Deathly Hallows: Part 2 all over again (except maybe it won't have as high a 2nd weekend drop, but it'll have constantly bad drops instead).

Edited April 14, 2018 by MCKillswitch123