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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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MattW Box Office Gold

MattW

Posted
Posted (edited)

I would have agreed with a2knet on the legs but releasing a week earlier I think bumps the range up a little, 2.3-2.5 -ish (am I splitting hairs?).  Avengers, IM3, Ultron and Cap3 all had reasonable to hard competition the 2nd or 3rd weekends while Infinity War won't have anything remotely competitive until Deadpool on its 4th weekend.  

 

Funnily enough Cap3 I would say had the weakest competition and yet the worst legs,  while Avengers had the worst competition and because it was so good it bowled them over and I think made them all do worse (Dark Shadows, Battleship, Dictator).  Ultron had it pretty tough as well with PP2 and MM:FR. I wonder if AoU being a slight disappointment is partly what let those two do so well, but that might be my own biases talking.

Edited by MattW
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Life goes on Straight-to-DVD

Life goes on

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Cold hard evidence as to why Infinity War will not have legs on par with Black Panther or Avengers 1 is utter bullshit to you?

 

Someone's mad and it ain't me.

Cold hard evidence? LOL.. the movie isn’t released yet and you’re already made your conclusion. 

 

I can only say one thing.....see you in a month, If you  still have the guts to visit this forum, when you should eat all your words.

And when i say to you: EAT DEFEAT!!

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MCKillswitch123 Summer Tentpole

MCKillswitch123

Posted
Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, Tower said:

But your post wasn't evidence, it was conjecture. When you say that AIW won't be "supremely entertaining and easily GA-friendly four-quadrant films" that's just your speculation, others will think that's exactly what it will be, and since the film hasn't opened yet neither side can prove that they are correct.

 

Ok, fair enough, the supremely entertaining part was exaggerated, but why would this movie be GA-friendly? It will borrow knowledge from 18 previous movies! It's gonna be a fan event from OW forward. They will drive to the theater to watch it 10000 times, casuals are just gonna be like "WTF is going on and who the fuck are these people". And if the movie ends on a cliffhanger (which is very possible), who knows how even fans would react. I don't see any indication, from marketing, that the movie will be an easy watch to casuals who aren't as caught up in the Marvel hype.

 

35 minutes ago, Life goes on said:

Cold hard evidence? LOL.. the movie isn’t released yet and you’re already made your conclusion. 

 

I can only say one thing.....see you in a month, If you  still have the guts to visit this forum, when you should eat all your words.

And when i say to you: EAT DEFEAT!!

Sure, even though I want to be wrong about this movie, I shall obey the mentality of "I'm saying something negative about this movie's BO potential therefore I'm anti-Marvel" and never return to the forum in shame. God, some of you people :rofl: Look, I may have a pre-estabilished conclusion of this movie already, but considering that I've seen all 18 previous MCU's, followed the majority of their BO runs, and have information on the movie based on marketing and the awareness of next year's 4th movie which could make this one have a cliffhanger ending or not, it's hard not to have one.

Edited by MCKillswitch123
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Stewart Box Office Gold

Stewart

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

Ugh...can we please go back to using this thread for what it’s meant for and not repetitive arguments about IW’s legs or whatever? Thanks. 

I'll helpout with that!

 

Movietickets:

23.5% - A Quiet Place

20.6% - Rampage

8.3%   - Truth or Dare

7.6%   - Ready Player One

7.2%   - Blockers

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

I look forward to the time where IW's direction in regards to its multiplier is clear. Then these (honestly) tiring discussions can come to an end. This is my only take on that thematic.

 

For me, both sides have good arguments, why IW might perform the way they anticipate it: @MovieMan89 has a good point that this FEELS like an event, that outshines both Ultron and Civil War and could just have a run on steroids because of its massive hype, elevating itself along the way. But i also agree with people like @That Ambitious Guy, that History has shown us relatively similar patterns for massively anticipated Marvel sequels which point to a lower multi; furthermore, the hype that this movie has generated could very well lead to an Opening Weekend like DH2; now the Avengers/MCU has a lot more GA-appeal than Potter, so IW could stabilize after such a hypothetical Incredibly-Frontloaded OW, but no matter how we see all this: It always comes down to the Audience Reception.

 

The vast majority of the people who will see this movie have no idea that this is a Part One. We internet nerds know of course, but Joe Miller does not. This movie's ending will be the most important factor for its run i truly believe. If its a downbeat cliffhanger, it wont go past Civil War's multi that i am sure of. It could ofc be something entirely different, even something uplifting, what do i know. But whatever Marvel cooks up, they must satisfy the people who will be surprised to decover, that this is not the ending to the MCU as we know it, but the first half of it.

 

At this point, as long as nobody knows the ending of this movie, any projections for its multiplier are pure speculation without any weight imo.

For the record, I do agree with you that it's pretty impossible to say what the multi will be right now with no one having seen the film yet. I'm not arguing that there's no way IW gets a poor multi, obviously a film that disappoints or divides audiences would lead to that. And yeah, something too part 1-ish/cliffhanger-ish could be bad for WOM.

 

I'm just arguing against those claiming it's locked into a CW-esque multi. It absolutely is not. It very well could defy the multi odds the exact same way every non-TLJ 200 opener before it did. All of those movies had being a true event in common, and all of them except TLJ had being true audience pleasers in common. That's what I'm banking on IW being, and if it is then there's no way I will back out of my 2.5-3x multi range. 

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Stewart Box Office Gold

Stewart

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:
  • rmpge_vert_online_teaser_dom_2764x4096_mRampage (2018)
    Rel. date Apr 13
  • blockers-full.jpgBlockers
    Rel. date Apr 6
  • rpo_new_main_vert_dom_2764x.jpgReady Player One
    Rel. date Mar 29
  • truthordare2018.jpgBlumhouses Truth or Dare (2018)
    Rel. date Apr 13

No Avengers?? 

 

1332955794_big_domino_pyramid_collapses.

 

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

No Avengers?? 

 

1332955794_big_domino_pyramid_collapses.

  

Add the formats and it's in 3rd place.  Feel better now?  :lol:

dated by @akvalley: 2018-04-15 16:57:23 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-04-15 16:00:00	787	A Quiet Place
2018-04-15 16:00:00	430	Rampage (2018)
2018-04-15 16:00:00	239	Blockers
2018-04-15 16:00:00	218	Ready Player One
2018-04-15 16:00:00	188	Blumhouses Truth or Dare (2018)
2018-04-15 16:00:00	176	Avengers Infinity War
2018-04-15 16:00:00	113	Black Panther
2018-04-15 16:00:00	107	Isle of Dogs
2018-04-15 16:00:00	83	Rampage 3D
2018-04-15 16:00:00	56	Tyler Perrys Acrimony
2018-04-15 16:00:00	53	Chappaquiddick
2018-04-15 16:00:00	52	Avengers Infinity War 3D
2018-04-15 16:00:00	50	I Can Only Imagine
2018-04-15 16:00:00	46	Beirut
2018-04-15 16:00:00	42	Ready Player One 3D
2018-04-15 16:00:00	38	Rampage The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-04-15 16:00:00	33	Avengers Infinity War An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-04-15 16:00:00	31	The Miracle Season
2018-04-15 16:00:00	26	Avengers Infinity War The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-04-15 16:00:00	24	A Wrinkle in Time
2018-04-15 16:00:00	24	Sherlock Gnomes
2018-04-15 16:00:00	24	Survival Sunday The Walking DeadFear the Walking Dead
2018-04-15 16:00:00	21	Super Troopers 2
2018-04-15 16:00:00	20	Pacific Rim Uprising (2018)
2018-04-15 16:00:00	19	Love, Simon
2018-04-15 16:00:00	19	Sgt. Stubby An American Hero
2018-04-15 16:00:00	9	I Feel Pretty
2018-04-15 16:00:00	5	Paul, Apostle of Christ
2018-04-15 16:00:00	5	Ready Player One An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-04-15 16:00:00	5	The Death of Stalin
2018-04-15 16:00:00	4	Game Night (2018)
2018-04-15 16:00:00	3	Tomb Raider (2018)
2018-04-15 16:00:00	3	October (2018)
2018-04-15 16:00:00	3	Back to the Future
2018-04-15 16:00:00	3	Bharat Ane Nenu
2018-04-15 16:00:00	3	Peter Rabbit
2018-04-15 16:00:00	3	Golak Bugni Bank Te Batua
2018-04-15 16:00:00	3	You Were Never Really Here
2018-04-15 16:00:00	2	La Boda de Valentina
2018-04-15 16:00:00	2	Rangasthalam (Telugu)
2018-04-15 16:00:00	2	Labyrinth (1986) Event
2018-04-15 16:00:00	2	Deadpool 2
2018-04-15 16:00:00	2	Finding Your Feet
2018-04-15 16:00:00	2	Pacific Rim Uprising 3D (2018)
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Forever My Girl
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Black Panther 3D
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Hector El Father Conoceras la Verdad
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Back to the Future Part II
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Annihilation
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	The Leisure Seeker
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	The Dating Project
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	The Metropolitan Opera Luisa Miller Encore
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Subedar Joginder Singh
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	PITFALLJEALOUSY
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	KISS ME DEADLYCITY OF FEAR
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Like Arrows
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	The Metropolitan Opera Cendrillon
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Ferdinand
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Krystal
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Be With You
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Krishnarjuna Yudham
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Lean on Pete
2018-04-15 16:00:00	1	Final Portrait
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Stewart Box Office Gold

Stewart

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: 

Add the formats and it's in 3rd place.  Feel better now?  :lol:

dated by @akvalley: 2018-04-15 16:57:23 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-04-15 16:00:00	787	A Quiet Place
2018-04-15 16:00:00	430	Rampage (2018)
2018-04-15 16:00:00	239	Blockers
2018-04-15 16:00:00	218	Ready Player One
2018-04-15 16:00:00	188	Blumhouses Truth or Dare (2018)
2018-04-15 16:00:00	176	Avengers Infinity War
2018-04-15 16:00:00	113	Black Panther
2018-04-15 16:00:00	107	Isle of Dogs
2018-04-15 16:00:00	83	Rampage 3D
2018-04-15 16:00:00	56	Tyler Perrys Acrimony
2018-04-15 16:00:00	53	Chappaquiddick
2018-04-15 16:00:00	52	Avengers Infinity War 3D
2018-04-15 16:00:00	50	I Can Only Imagine
2018-04-15 16:00:00	46	Beirut
2018-04-15 16:00:00	42	Ready Player One 3D
2018-04-15 16:00:00	38	Rampage The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-04-15 16:00:00	33	Avengers Infinity War An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-04-15 16:00:00	31	The Miracle Season
2018-04-15 16:00:00	26	Avengers Infinity War The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-04-15 16:00:00	24	A Wrinkle in Time
2018-04-15 16:00:00	24	Sherlock Gnomes

*phew*

 

Back to partying again then! :wiggle:

Edited by feasby007
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

IW GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-11 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

3/118 (nc)

 

2D:  1/77 (nc)

3D:  2/41 (nc)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 84 showings>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

5 (nc)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

5 (nc)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

31 (+1)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 (nc)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/215 (nc)    

St: 0/216 (nc)

Su: 0/209 (nc)  

 

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (84/118 showings):

100%:      3  (nc)

90-99%: 10  (nc)

80-89%:  19  (nc)

70-79%:  19  (+1)

60-69%:  15  (nc)

50-59%:   4  (-1)

40-49%:   6  (nc)

30-39%:   4  (+1)

20-29%:   2  (-1)

10-19%:   2  (nc)

0-9%:       0  (nc)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

3

118

3422

11295

69.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 57

---

2.5537 times as many seats sold as Black Panther at this point in time (7873 vs 3083)

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, manny1234 said:

Man the gap is getting smaller between IW and BP @Porthos.

It's expected.   IW needed to sell 3 tickets to every one BP did to keep it at 3x, and there was NO WAY that was going to happen.  Hell, there was no way it was going to sell two tickets for every one BP did in the last few days* (especially since BP was riding its post-premiere/initial reviews buzz).

 

* If it does end up as twice as many tickets as BP when all is said and done, that might herald a 50m preview night.  Something to keep in mind before one gets too disappointed. ;)

 

Also, IW has reached a plateau of sorts, as folks are waiting for showings to be added so they don't get stuck in the first few rows/aisles. 

 

Showings should be added Real Soon Now™, though.  When they do, the ticket pace will pick back up.

 

...

 

Of course, it did for BP as well. :lol:

 

Here is the last two weeks of Black Panther's presales:

 

 

Showings

Seats Left

Total Seats

Percet Sold

Total Seats

      Sold

Seats Sold

  That Day

T-14:

68

4063

6815

40.38%

2752

178

T-13:

68

3928

6815

42.36%

2887

135

T-12:

68

3810

6815

44.09%

3005

118

T-11:

68

3732

6815

45.24%

3083

78

T-10:

69

3696

6850

46.04%

3154

71

T-9:

70

3831

7110

46.12%

3279

125

T-8:

73

4147

7601

45.44%

3454

175

T-7:

73

3969

7601

47.78%

3632

178

T-6:

73

3785

7601

50.20%

3816

184

T-5:

74

3708

7710

51.91%

4002

186

T-4:

74

3508

7710

54.50%

4202

200

T-3:

81

3766

8279

54.51%

4513

311

T-2:

111

5080

10359

50.96%

5279

766

T-1:

121

4597

10526

56.33%

5929

650

T-0.5:

136

4512

11481

60.70%

6969

1040

T-0:

136

3421

11481

70.20%

8060

1091

T-0*:

136

3377

11481

70.59%

8104

44

 

NOTE: T-0* = 30 minutes before 7pm showings on Opening Night with ALL showings with five seats or less left counted as sellouts.  No further data recorded through the night.

====

One might note how it started to drop and plateau out as well.  But as the showings were added, and as it got closer to release, it picked back up again.

 

If I wasn't terminally lazy, I might plot out those per-day figures on a graph.  While there is some variance, it'd show a clear upward swing the closer it got to release. :)

Edited by Porthos
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

I would also point out that BP had far fewer showings already scheduled than IW already has, so it had more room to grow. 

 

That being said, I do think there's room for around 30 to 35 more showings for IW*.  Maybe more.  Just depends on how deep into the night theaters locally think it'll be worth it to hold screenings. :)

 

* That's about 10-17 more screenings than BP ultimately had, but that's mostly because of the new theater that opened in town, plus my anticipation of more post 1am showings here.

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fabiopazzo2 Summer Tentpole

fabiopazzo2

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, feasby007 said:

No Avengers?? 

 

1332955794_big_domino_pyramid_collapses.

  

Fandango Pulse
1) Avengers Infinity War: 257
2) A Quiet Place: 137
3) Rampage: 76
4) Avengers Infinity War3D: 58
5) Avengers Infinity War The IMAX 2D Experience: 38
Edited by fabiopazzo2
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