The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Deadpool 2 Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-15 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	104	10642	12969	17.94%

 

Total Shows Added Today:    9

Total Seats Added Today:  704

Total Seats Sold Today:     134

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

MT.com Update:

 

1. Avengers: Infinity War: 84.1%

2. I Feel Pretty: 2%

3. Deadpool 2: 1.9%

4. A Quiet Place: 1.7%

5. Overboard: 1.2%

Gonna be real curious to see what happens when Solo starts presales on the 4th.

 

I was digging back through some of my old posts to pull out some historical data and found out that and when Rogue One first went on sale it hit 70% on MT.

With Infinity War still crushing all in its path, there is a 0% chance of Solo hitting that number.  But I am curious to see what number it does hit.  Especially since it'll be Friday and IW will have sky high sales. 

Edited May 3, 2018 by Porthos

[TLK]

Fandango Presales Volume.

 

Date           Name                      Monday      Tuesday       Wednesday
04/06/18    A Quiet Place           2177          4003            10665
04/06/18    Blockers                  504            1106            2931
04/13/18    Rampage                705            1508            4109
04/13/18    Truth Or Dare         385            760              2133
04/20/18    Super Troopers 2    2825          3447            6811
04/20/18    I Feel Pretty             871            1610           4423
04/27/18    Avengers 3              49836        54892         68826   
05/04/18    Overboard               84              409             1044

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse: 

 

1. Infinity War

2. Infinity War 3D

3. Infinity War IMAX

4. Deadpool 2

5. Infinity War IMAX 3D

 

5 minutes of watching:

 

9 Overboard

4 Bad Samaritan

4 Tully

2 Breaking In

1 Life of the Party

 

idk, i'm kind of feeling that Overboard might not beat Latin Lover despite 400-500 more theaters

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

SOLO tracking 170M+ 4 Day OW

 

http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-box-office-projection-1202381856/

 

Sources tell Deadline that Solo‘s tracking is “pretty strong” with an unaided score of 28 that’s higher than Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($155M, 23 score) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($146.5M, 23). Unaided awareness indicates how strong the buzz is on a title among those who are unprompted in polling and it’s a priceless stat off which studios buy their TV ads. Definite interest of 55 is higher than Spider-Man: Homecoming‘s 53 and that latter pic opened to $117M. Males under and over 25 are the dominant demo here for Solo.

[KeepItU25071906]

2 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

SOLO tracking 170M+ 4 Day OW

i don't think so

[The Mad Titan]

4 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

SOLO tracking 170M+ 4 Day OW

 

http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-box-office-projection-1202381856/

 

Sources tell Deadline that Solo‘s tracking is “pretty strong” with an unaided score of 28 that’s higher than Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($155M, 23 score) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($146.5M, 23). Unaided awareness indicates how strong the buzz is on a title among those who are unprompted in polling and it’s a priceless stat off which studios buy their TV ads. Definite interest of 55 is higher than Spider-Man: Homecoming‘s 53 and that latter pic opened to $117M. Males under and over 25 are the dominant demo here for Solo.

That would be a good start. About 10% ahead of my prediction. 

[Stewart]

5 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

SOLO tracking 170M+ 4 Day OW

 

http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-box-office-projection-1202381856/

 

Sources tell Deadline that Solo‘s tracking is “pretty strong” with an unaided score of 28 that’s higher than Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($155M, 23 score) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($146.5M, 23). Unaided awareness indicates how strong the buzz is on a title among those who are unprompted in polling and it’s a priceless stat off which studios buy their TV ads. Definite interest of 55 is higher than Spider-Man: Homecoming‘s 53 and that latter pic opened to $117M. Males under and over 25 are the dominant demo here for Solo.

Roughly on track with BOP's long range tracking of $150m for 3-day

[JB33]

There goes my Solo under the PotC: AWE Memorial day weekend record club.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

SOLO tracking 170M+ 4 Day OW

 

http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-box-office-projection-1202381856/

 

Sources tell Deadline that Solo‘s tracking is “pretty strong” with an unaided score of 28 that’s higher than Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($155M, 23 score) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($146.5M, 23). Unaided awareness indicates how strong the buzz is on a title among those who are unprompted in polling and it’s a priceless stat off which studios buy their TV ads. Definite interest of 55 is higher than Spider-Man: Homecoming‘s 53 and that latter pic opened to $117M. Males under and over 25 are the dominant demo here for Solo.

[The Panda]

Only 170m 4-Day???

 

Star Wars is guys, nobody cares about it anymore, it’s OW might be under Ant-Man 2’s DOM total!!

[Barnack]

Rogue One was at 172.6m after 4 days.

[narniadis]

26 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Rogue One was at 172.6m after 4 days.

Seems like a reasonable expectation and in line with my own predictions...

 

a 150/380 run would be about right to me. reminiscent of what Ep3 did 13 years ago. 

[Poseidon]

Mh, unaided awareness is not the score I would look at in an environment, where Infinity War, Deadpool and Solo open within a month. It's SW, of Course people know it's coming...

 

I still doubt, it's opening that high, but I have been wrong on SW before.

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Mh, unaided awareness is not the score I would look at in an environment, where Infinity War, Deadpool and Solo open within a month. It's SW, of Course people know it's coming...

 

I still doubt, it's opening that high, but I have been wrong on SW before.

There is enough audience to get Rouge One to 150m the only thing that is making me hesitate is Deadpool, but we saw in 2007 that the big three all survived at least their openings (legs were a different matter of course).

[MovieMan89]

170m 4 day would be amazing for Solo and I will definitely have some crow to eat if it happens. IF it happens. 

[That One Girl]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

170m 4 day would be amazing for Solo and I will definitely have some crow to eat if it happens. IF it happens. 

 

Very comparable situation to my infinity war prediction if it happens

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

170M would be terrific.150M would still be great.Hell 130 is still awesome.I hope Deadline is right and 170M happens because i want Emilia Clarke in my life long after GoT finishes its run.

[fabiopazzo2]

Lol another great super fantastic year for the Disney studios 

[Poseidon]

41 minutes ago, narniadis said:

There is enough audience to get Rouge One to 150m the only thing that is making me hesitate is Deadpool, but we saw in 2007 that the big three all survived at least their openings (legs were a different matter of course).

 

"Rogue One", in my opinion, is a different story. It completely lived off the hype, the big comeback named A force Awakens left behind. 

 

Just as a comparison: Rogue One was the #1 most anticipated Movie on Fandangos List for 2016.

"Solo" only was #5 (and #3 behind Avengers and Deadpool for the Summer Season).

 

I think that this is quite telling, how much interest it lost by the general audience.

Paired with the incredibly low trailer views and the negative press TLJ got and the gap of only a couple of months, I think that this might turn out as one of the rare underperformers for Disney. Hell, when was the last time, a Premium-Disney-Sequel came in under early expectations?

 

I never thought, that there was any possibility, that a Justice League Movie could open to under $100m, but still it did. 

 

But we'll see, how things go from here, after Avengers are done and the big marketing push for Solo starts.