The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[a2k]

tough to think JW2 can go below:

16 + 41 + 50 (+24%) + 38 (-24%) = 145

2.48x gives 360 dom

 

360 dom (-45% from JW1) + 205 china (-10.5%) + 510 os-china (-35%) = 1075 ww (-36%)

Edited June 16, 2018 by a2k

[Stewart]

26 minutes ago, a2k said:

tough to think JW2 can go below:

16 + 41 + 50 (+24%) + 38 (-24%) = 145

2.48x gives 360 dom

 

360 dom (-45% from JW1) + 205 china (-10.5%) + 510 os-china (-35%) = 1075 ww (-36%)

That would be a fine drop, given how big the first was

[Nova]

So I'm going to start tracking JW2 at my theater from now simply to see if it's walk up based or not. I did something similar for Solo. I started tracking that on May 20th. So I figured I'd started tracking JW2 now. 

 

Here's what I have for JW2 at my theater as of now. 

7PM 106/142 
10:30PM 30/142 

 

3D 
7PM 68/142 
10PM 12/142 

 

So it's starting at 4 showtimes for Thursday night. For comparison Han Solo had 5 showtimes and this is what it looked like on the 20th: 

2D 
7:00 PM 85/116 
9:15 PM 88/142 
10:45 PM 36/142 

 

3D 
7:00 PM 84/142 
10:15 PM 30/116 

 

*Now I don't think Solo is a good comp because that's 100% presales driven but I'm just putting it here because it's a recent blockbuster that I tracked that I thought would be walk up driven. Another comp I have is for Deadpool 2 but I didn't track that until the night before because I wasn't sure how walk up driven it would. But it had 6 showtimes at the same point in time. 

 

In the end DP2 ended with 9 showtimes for Thursday night and Solo ended up with 9 showtimes as well (but a 4 2D and 5 3D breakdown). I think Jurassic World may end up with 8-9 showtimes as well but I'm not sure because while I don't remember exactly how DP2 did this far out, I do remember it selling a significant amount of seats with the showtimes it had which warranted the increase in showtimes. Whereas my theater added the showtimes for Solo in hopes that walk ups would happen and they never did so my theater might be more cautious in giving JW2 more showtimes if the sales aren't indicating that it would need more showtimes. But I think this will all depend on how much sales increase by in the coming days. 

 

Right now I'm still thinking $110M-$115M for the 3-day as in my eyes its trailing DP2 by a significant amount and even if I consider that DP2 will be more frontloaded/presales base, im

not sure JW2 can make up the ground with walk ups....but we shall see. 

[Porthos]

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-5 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	111	9053	11263	19.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:          124

 

.2389x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 5 days before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.5522x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 5 days before release (BP had 16 more days of pre-sales) 

.5923x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  5 days before release (DP2 had one plus more days of pre-sales) 

.5641x as many tickets sold as Solo 5 days before release pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales) 

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-5 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	111	9053	11263	19.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:          124

 

.2389x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 5 days before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.5522x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 5 days before release (BP had 16 more days of pre-sales) 

.5923x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  5 days before release (DP2 had one plus more days of pre-sales) 

.5641x as many tickets sold as Solo 5 days before release pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales) 

Soon it will achieve the amazing milestone of 60% DP2     

 

Reaaaaally leaning on those walk ups with this movie, see how it goes.

[MovieMan89]

10 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Soon it will achieve the amazing milestone of 60% DP2     

 

Reaaaaally leaning on those walk ups with this movie, see how it goes.

If we were to assume DP2 will act 20% more frontloaded than FK because it's a CBM, then we could bump FK up to 80% of DP2. If that ratio stuck for OW, it would still only be at 100m. 

[RealLyre]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

If we were to assume DP2 will act 20% more frontloaded than FK because it's a CBM, then we could bump FK up to 80% of DP2. If that ratio stuck for OW, it would still only be at 100m. 

100M OW sounds about right tbh.

 

I don't know why tracking for this movie is still 130M-150M when it doesn't seem to show any sign of breaking out 

[YM!]

On 6/5/2018 at 8:15 PM, YourMother the Edgelord said:

‘Nother North Shore Cinema Update

 

Fallen Kingdom is running 88% ahead of Homecoming, 16% ahead of Rangarok and 4% behind Justice League at the same point in time.

 

Looking at a wide range from $89.3M (if it’s frontloaded like JL) to $141.5M to $220M OW (if it’s backloaded like HC) using them comparison.

Fallen Kingdom is running 7.5% ahead of Justice League and 46.8% ahead of Homecoming.

 

This gives us a range between barely at $100M to $171M, however the Jurassic Park franchise has always been more walk up based but at the same time, Homecoming is one of the easier films big films tend to outpace and it is alarming close to Justice League. My guess is somewhere between $120M-$150M.

[Sam]

Fallen Kingdom is also on the slower side of pre-sales at my theaters. Showtimes currently at the same amount of Deadpool 2.

 

- Thursday previews look pretty good for showtimes with 7PM start (50-70% full). But it’s totally dead for anything after 9PM. 

 

- Weekend FSS atm I see it’s selling decently for matinee shows, ok/good for 6PM-8PM shows, and also dead for after 9PM.

 

Walk-ups better be on MCU sequels level for 150M+ I think. 

[Legion Again]

On 6/16/2018 at 5:59 AM, a2k said:

tough to think JW2 can go below:

16 + 41 + 50 (+24%) + 38 (-24%) = 145

2.48x gives 360 dom

 

360 dom (-45% from JW1) + 205 china (-10.5%) + 510 os-china (-35%) = 1075 ww (-36%)

Not saying it will definitely go below there, but it does not seems at all tough to imagine.

[dxmatrixdt]

any comparisons with Jurassic World vs Incredibles w/ presales?

[Rebeccas]

Um, yeah I'm starting to believe the underperformance hype now. Feels like Incredibles 2 stole all its thunder. 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

5 minutes ago, mathemetrics said:

any comparisons with Jurassic World vs Incredibles w/ presales?

Don’t have an exact number for Sunday night, but it’s probably running at around 70% of I2’s presales for Thursday/Friday 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Don’t have an exact number for Sunday night, but it’s probably running at around 70% of I2’s presales for Thursday/Friday 

And JW made the same as I2 in previews. This shit is gonna get ugly unless pre-sales are being wildly misleading for it for some reason. 

[filmlover]

Jurassic World has sold 105 out of 218 seats for the 7:00 Thursday show in XD at my theater so some y'all need to calm the hell down. lol.

[Morieris]

My dad went to see Superfly at the same theater with Incredibles 2 and he was stymied at the crowd size.

Outside of Black Panther, I've never been happier that something is such a hit.

[dxmatrixdt]

3 minutes ago, Morieris said:

My dad went to see Superfly at the same theater with Incredibles 2 and he was stymied at the crowd size.

Outside of Black Panther, I've never been happier that something is such a hit.

big crowd size for Superfly?

[Morieris]

20 minutes ago, mathemetrics said:

big crowd size for Superfly?

 

Incredibles 2.

 

Honestly if anyone besides himself saw Superfly I'd be very surprised.

[WrathOfHan]

Skyscraper is getting two screens at my AMC: the second biggest auditorium for 2D and an average one for 3D. I’m guessing Ant-Man is keeping the biggest

[The Panda]

Honestly, I’d probably prefer seeing I2 a third time vs FK a first