The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[That One Girl]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	118	9224	12097	23.75%

 

Total Showings Added Today:    7

Total Seats Added Today:      834

Total Seats Sold Today:         443

 

.2843x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 3 days before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.6366x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 3 days before release (BP had 16 more days of pre-sales) 

.6576x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  3 days before release (DP2 had one plus more days of pre-sales) 

.6736x as many tickets sold as Solo 3 days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales) 

 

====

 

More detailed T-3 comps:

 

IW:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	6	151	3858	13963	72.37%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          549

 

BP:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	6	81	3766	8279	54.51%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          311

 

DP2:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	127	9812	14181	30.81%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          374

 

Solo:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	103	6745	11010	38.74%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          196

 

================

 

Very good day for JK:FK locally in Sacratomatoes.  Now let's see if it can keep up the momentum as premiere night approaches.

 

WOO DINOSAURS

[TLK]

JW2's Monday presales (9310) are quite a bit lower than Solo(13688), Deadpool 2 (23134) and Incredibles 2 (20872).

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

[Mojoguy]

I mean Solo ended up being a flop... so...

[abra]

[Andreas]

41 minutes ago, abra said:

Can't wait for the I2 Monday numbers.

[Nova]

6 hours ago, TLK said:

JW2's Monday presales (9310) are quite a bit lower than Solo(13688), Deadpool 2 (23134) and Incredibles 2 (20872).

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

“JW2 isn’t as presales heavy as those films.” 

 

Yea no shit but the fact that it’s that far behind those films in a day and age where presales matter is why it’s concerning. 

 

Also I might add that I2 is a family film so it’s not gonna rely on presales the way DP2 and Solo did. Hence why it had lower presales than DP2 on Monday and yet out opened it by $60M. So if you’re using that “excuse” for JW2, JW2 is less than half of I2 on the Monday before release. 

Edited June 19, 2018 by Nova

[The Panda]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

“JW2 isn’t as presales heavy as those films.” 

 

Yea no shit but the fact that it’s that far behind those films in a day and age where presales matter is why it’s concerning. 

 

Also I might add that I2 is a family film so it’s not gonna rely on presales the way DP2 and Solo did. Hence why it had lower presales than DP2 on Monday and yet out opened it by $60M. So if you’re using that “excuse” for JW2, JW2 is less than half of I2 on the Monday before release. 

I think JW2 will be more walk up based than I2, but not twice as walk up friendly (or anything like that).  I reckon that could mean an OW in the low 100 range.

[Taruseth]

6 hours ago, TLK said:

JW2's Monday presales (9310) are quite a bit lower than Solo(13688), Deadpool 2 (23134) and Incredibles 2 (20872).

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

That would be like a opening somewhere between 50M and Solo's OW.

I guess it could still get to 140M (can't imagine it falling more, despite most things pointing that way) Especially the fact how high I2 is compared to this is worrisome, as it was significantly less presale heavy than Solo, DP2 and IW.

Edited June 19, 2018 by Taruseth

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, The Incredible Panda said:

I think JW2 will be more walk up based than I2, but not twice as walk up friendly (or anything like that).  I reckon that could mean an OW in the low 100 range.

Even if it isn’t as presales heavy as I2, my whole point was that even if you’re relying on walk-ups for the film, it’s presales is so far behind a film that didn’t rely as much on presales (like DP2 and Solo did) in I2 that I’m not sure how in the hell its supposed to hit $140M-$150M which is what most folks on here (and tracking) think it’s going to open at. 

 

But i agree with you that it’s looking at an opening in the low $100M. I had it at $110M-$115M based on sales at my theater so I’m thinking anywhere from $105M-$115M now. I’ll do a sales check at my theater for it either today or tomorrow to see how much the sales have changed since the last time I did a check. 

[Premium George]

FK doing less than $130m OW will be more shocking than JL OW. 

[Rebeccas]

JW2 is supposed to be less walk up-y than Incredibles 2? Um ok. I know the first one was big on walk ups but this is a sequel and I2 is a kids/family film that's VERY walk-up friendly. They are both sequels to GA/walk-up driven films so I feel like that's actually the most apt comparison.

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

JW2 is supposed to be less walk up-y than Incredibles 2? Um ok. I know the first one was big on walk ups but this is a sequel and I2 is a kids/family film that's VERY walk-up friendly. They are both sequels to GA/walk-up driven films so I feel like that's actually the most apt comparison.

It needs to be, if not, it's opening like Solo😂

[RealLyre]

17 minutes ago, Nova said:

Even if it isn’t as presales heavy as I2, my whole point was that even if you’re relying on walk-ups for the film, it’s presales is so far behind a film that didn’t rely as much on presales (like DP2 and Solo did) in I2 that I’m not sure how in the hell its supposed to hit $140M-$150M which is what most folks on here (and tracking) think it’s going to open at. 

 

But i agree with you that it’s looking at an opening in the low $100M. I had it at $110M-$115M based on sales at my theater so I’m thinking anywhere from $105M-$115M now. I’ll do a sales check at my theater for it either today or tomorrow to see how much the sales have changed since the last time I did a check. 

If it opens in the $110M-$115M range then it probably won't reach $300M domestic total.

 

and maybe miss the 1 billion club worldwide 

 

Edited June 19, 2018 by RealLyre
.

[Jonwo]

I don't think JWFK will miss $100m but $125m wouldn't be a shock.

Edited June 19, 2018 by Jonwo

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, abra said:

Does JW2 leans more towards Movietickets, as this percentage for JW2 is just a little below I2 on Tuesday (taking into account the fact, that this weekend was 2.5x as large as the one before)

Edited June 19, 2018 by Taruseth

[The Panda]

33 minutes ago, Nova said:

Even if it isn’t as presales heavy as I2, my whole point was that even if you’re relying on walk-ups for the film, it’s presales is so far behind a film that didn’t rely as much on presales (like DP2 and Solo did) in I2 that I’m not sure how in the hell its supposed to hit $140M-$150M which is what most folks on here (and tracking) think it’s going to open at. 

 

But i agree with you that it’s looking at an opening in the low $100M. I had it at $110M-$115M based on sales at my theater so I’m thinking anywhere from $105M-$115M now. I’ll do a sales check at my theater for it either today or tomorrow to see how much the sales have changed since the last time I did a check. 

Yeah, I was agreeing with you there.  It's looking like that 50% OW decrease from the first could actually happen.

 

In regards to its trailer views, I think that's just another nail to say trailer views are global, therefore high views doesn't indicate where the interest is coming from (in this case, the higher views showed higher interest from OS).

[abra]

[Andreas]

MT Update:

 

I2: 65.7%

JW2: 11.3%

O8: 4.2%

Tag: 3.2%

Solo: 1.9%

 

JW2 just went down from 11.6%, not a good sign at all 

[poweranimals]

2 minutes ago, Andreas said:

MT Update:

 

I2: 65.7%

JW2: 11.3%

O8: 4.2%

Tag: 3.2%

Solo: 1.9%

 

JW2 just went down from 11.6%, not a good sign at all 

This movie just can't seem to catch a break.

[Premium George]

Discount tuesday, so it will go down. This weekend is gonna be interesting.