The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Deep Wang]

@IronJimbo  @JamesCameronScholar

 

Alita's presales are actually pretty good!  Since presales double the week of, lets just assume this is going to do at least 500k - that means that of the films I have data for, this would put it right between Emoji Movie and Orient Express.  Those opened to 24m and 28m respectively.  Next up would be Jumanji's 569k/36m opening weekend.

 

HOWEVER - the funny thing is that those aren't great comps in terms of films, just that they had similar presale/OW numbers.  The best comp to Alita on my list is Valerian which was right above Jumanji with 630k in presales but only scored a 17m OW.  😬

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

The best comp to Alita on my list is Valerian which was right above Jumanji with 630k in presales but only scored a 17m OW.  😬

 

Keep in mind that Valerian sales were boosted by me buying out multiple AMC theaters.

[Deep Wang]

18 minutes ago, Wonder89 said:

Still no 3m ?

Not yet, but 410k in a little under 2 weeks is not bad.  That's more than Lego has done in total!  

 

On my chart that ranks by presales, the 2.9m ranks right behind ITs 3.8m.  This number will double, which puts it at 6m. That would place it right above Ragnarok, and about 2m shy of GOTG2.   And that's if it ONLY doubles the number.  

 

There are obviously a lot of things that can go wrong in the next 31 days.  The presales could stall out, and/or the reviews could be bad.  But if it doesn't, I don't see how we can't lock down at least 130m for now.

 

 

Edited February 4, 2019 by Deep Wang

[RealLyre]

32 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

CM - 2.9m(+410k in last 12 days)

 

does this number bode well for Captain Marvel's 150M OW chances?

 

 

[JB33]

I have a hunch walk-ups are going to be very strong for Captain Marvel. We've already discussed the barren market. People just showing up at the cinema will have a pretty easy choice in CM.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

Not yet, but 410k in a little under 2 weeks is not bad.  That's more than every Lego has done in total!  

 

On my chart that ranks by presales, the 2.9m ranks right behind ITs 3.8m.  This number will double, which puts it at 6m. That would place it right above Ragnarok, and about 2m shy of GOTG2.   And that's if it ONLY doubles the number.  

 

There are obviously a lot of things that can go wrong in the next 31 days.  The presales could stall out, and/or the reviews could be bad.  But if it doesn't, I don't see how we can't lock down at least 130m for now.

 

 

 Also something to consider is that female skewing movies tend to be more presale heavy. Don’t know if it applies in this case since it’s CBM and will still have a big male audience but I’ve been burned several times in the last year by that lol I’m gonna go ahead and guess $140M-$150M OW for now though 

[Deep Wang]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

 Also something to consider is that female skewing movies tend to be more presale heavy. Don’t know if it applies in this case since it’s CBM and will still have a big male audience but I’ve been burned several times in the last year by that lol I’m gonna go ahead and guess $140M-$150M OW for now though 

 

You are absolutely correct.  When I initially saw it at almost 2m in three days I was like, holy shit - this could challenge March OW record.  But it definitely has slowed down and "only" done another million since then.  That's still more than most movies EVER do, so it's really impressive.  

 

The other thing I think about it is BATB.  It did something very similar, where the first days of presales was so fucking high(I think highest 24 sales I had seen at that point), then it settled down to a slow and steady rhythm.  The last piece of data I have for it personally, is 4.1m 7 days from release.  Someone here, can't remember who, reminded me that I came forward with about 10m the day of or the day before. So that thing sold another 6m in just a week.  Not saying that this will follow that trend, but just saying that it's not outside the realm of possibility to explode as we get closer.  

[IronJimbo]

24 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

@IronJimbo  @JamesCameronScholar

 

Alita's presales are actually pretty good!  Since presales double the week of, lets just assume this is going to do at least 500k - that means that of the films I have data for, this would put it right between Emoji Movie and Orient Express.  Those opened to 24m and 28m respectively.  Next up would be Jumanji's 569k/36m opening weekend.

 

HOWEVER - the funny thing is that those aren't great comps in terms of films, just that they had similar presale/OW numbers.  The best comp to Alita on my list is Valerian which was right above Jumanji with 630k in presales but only scored a 17m OW.  😬

Nice infos Wang.

 

What are you personally feeling the 3DAY now?

[NCsoft]

28 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 The best comp to Alita on my list is Valerian which was right above Jumanji with 630k in presales but only scored a 17m OW.  😬

That is quite surprising!

Let's just hope Alita both has better WOM (it is going to be a much better movie), and more walk up friendly.

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Nice infos Wang.

 

What are you personally feeling the 3DAY now?

 

It's still really tough to call, but I guess I'll go with between 21-24m 3day.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

It's still really tough to call, but I guess I'll go with between 21-24m 3day.

For me second week has always been more important but those original $15m 3days were always too low. I'm thinking low 30s.

WOM is everything! preach it

 

Also it's cool we get to see daily stats from South Korea, it will be a taster of whats to come for sure.

Edited February 4, 2019 by IronJimbo

[Deep Wang]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

For me second week has always been more important but those original $15m 3days were always too low. I'm thinking low 30s.

WOM is everything! preach it

 

Also it's cool we get to see daily stats from South Korea, it will be a taster of whats to come for sure.

 

I'm very curious what your prediction for the second weekend drop is, lol.

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I'm very curious what your prediction for the second weekend drop is, lol.

I suspect his prediction is probably not a drop at all

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I'm very curious what your prediction for the second weekend drop is, lol.

Can you drop upwards?

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Can you drop upwards?

Called it.

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Can you drop upwards?

Of course you can, but I promise you that isn't possible for Alita.

[RealLyre]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Can you drop upwards?

in Christmas 

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

in Christmas 

Yup, literally 99% of all movies that increased on second weekend were because of Christmas.

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Yup, literally 99% of all movies that increased on second weekend were because of Christmas.

I suspect all except Mother's Day (which had MD in its 2nd weekend) and maybe some pre-Thanksgiving release

 

EDIT: you were right, all were Christmas period except:

• Mother's Day
• The Blind Side (Thanksgiving)
• Jingle All The Way (Thanksgiving)
• My Dog Skip (??? - March 2000)
• Leap! (??? - August 2017)
• Shrek (Wow! I think it had Memorial Day 2nd weekend though)

 

That's it for >2000 theaters

Edited February 4, 2019 by feasby007

[DAJK]

15 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I'm very curious what your prediction for the second weekend drop is, lol.

IMO I personally don't think the 2nd weekend drop will be too bad given complete lack of direct competition. I could definitely see it doing 25M 3-day, low 31-32 4-day and then something like 13M on the 22nd, 8M on the 1st, but then big drop after that because of CM. 

 

All in all, I can still definitely see it reaching 70M domestic. Maybe 80 if it's well-received by audiences.