The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	83	7320	10704	31.61%

 

Total Showings Added Today:      2 [1 non-reserved seating]

Total Seats Added Today:           88

Total Seats Sold Today:              62

 

.4758x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 20 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.8863x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 20 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

3.8852x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 20 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.5598x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 20 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

 

Day T-20 Comp:

 

IW:      116 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4013/11125 seats left  | 63.93% sold]

DP2:     82 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings  |   9963/11757 seats left  | 15.26% sold]

JW2:     96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings  |   9242/10113 seats left  |   8.61% sold]

FB2:     50 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings |  12055/13377 seats left  |  9.88% sold]

Edited February 17, 2019 by Porthos

[Cooper Legion]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

3.8852x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2

600M OW is a go      

 

Spoiler

This really drives home what a crazy long presale period CM has had. The % of IW has been pretty consistent for a while, and if that can hold it’ll do pretty good.

 

[john2000]

2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

600M OW is a go      

 

  Hide contents

This really drives home what a crazy long presale period CM has had. The % of IW has been pretty consistent for a while, and if that can hold it’ll do pretty good.

 

so it can hit 160 or more ?

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, john2000 said:

so it can hit 160 or more ?

Can it hit 160?  Sure.  That's on the optimistic side right now, but it might happen.

 

Will it?  A lot depends on reviews, buzz and a dozen other unknowable factors right now. 

Edited February 16, 2019 by Porthos

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

so it can hit 160 or more ?

The current data from Sacramento tells a story pretty consistent with a high teens to low 20s preview figure, which could lead to a 160M OW with a very reasonable internal multiplier. However, there are still a lot of known unknowns at this point:     

Sacramento is only one market that could be unusually pro or anti CM relative to the nation   

Presales could go much better or worse than average over the next 3 weeks  

The Thursday presale:Thursday gross ratio could be unusually high or low   

The multiplier off of previews could be unusually high or low     

 

Porthos’s updates paint a broadly positive figure at the moment, but they aren’t a high precision tool 20 days out.

[john2000]

11 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

The current data from Sacramento tells a story pretty consistent with a high teens to low 20s preview figure, which could lead to a 160M OW with a very reasonable internal multiplier. However, there are still a lot of known unknowns at this point:     

Sacramento is only one market that could be unusually pro or anti CM relative to the nation   

Presales could go much better or worse than average over the next 3 weeks  

The Thursday presale:Thursday gross ratio could be unusually high or low   

The multiplier off of previews could be unusually high or low     

 

Porthos’s updates paint a broadly positive figure at the moment, but they aren’t a high precision tool 20 days out.

agreed,also lets wait and see the reactions to the movie in about 3 days i hope its good movie

[Porthos]

10 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

The current data from Sacramento tells a story pretty consistent with a high teens to low 20s preview figure, which could lead to a 160M OW with a very reasonable internal multiplier. However, there are still a lot of known unknowns at this point:     

Sacramento is only one market that could be unusually pro or anti CM relative to the nation   

Presales could go much better or worse than average over the next 3 weeks  

The Thursday presale:Thursday gross ratio could be unusually high or low   

The multiplier off of previews could be unusually high or low     

 

Porthos’s updates paint a broadly positive figure at the moment, but they aren’t a high precision tool 20 days out.

Agreed to all of this. 

 

I've seen a few "" reactions to my last couple of updates with expanded comps.  Well, I just want to remind that the "there but for the grace of Walt go I" cautionary tale is entering the comp system in a day or so.  No prizes (except a Marvel one, perhaps) for guessing which comp I'm referring to. 

 

But, as a sneak preview:  Captain Marvel has 1.29x as many seats sold after 39 days of pre-sales as The Movie Which Shall Not Be Named did after 1 day of pre-sales. 

 

And while that's fine (it would suggest an 18.1m Opening Night for CM), that percentage WILL go down over the next few days, as The Movie Which Shall Not Be Named will almost certainly outsell it by a handy amount over the next three days or so before The Movie Which Shall Not Be Named starts its slow, inexorable, slowdown.

 

===

 

Now, even here, it's looking good between Captain Marvel and The Movie Which Shall Not Be Named, as Marvel movies historically have a very good run up in their last few days of pre-sales (especially day of premiere) and, for whatever reason, The Movie Which Shall Not Be Named... didn't.

 

But, as many of us have said before:  Just because it's happened before, doesn't necessarily mean it will happen again.

 

For me, the biggest wild card isn't so much reviews and initial reactions, though that's always important; it's the sheer length of pre-sales.  Just how much demand has already been burnt up in this unusually long (for a non-SW saga movie at least) pre-sale window?

 

That question will get answered more and more in the coming days.  But if one wants a Yellow Caution Flag outside of the normal concerns about reviews and buzz, that's it.

Edited February 16, 2019 by Porthos

[RealLyre]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

Agreed to all of this. 

 

I've seen a few "" reactions to my last couple of updates with expanded comps.  Well, I just want to remind that the "there but for the grace of Walt go I" cautionary tale is entering the comp system in a day or so.  No prizes (except a Marvel one, perhaps) for guessing which comp I'm referring to. 

  

But, as a sneak preview:  Captain Marvel has 1.29x as many seats sold after 39 days of pre-sales as The Movie Which Shall Not Be Named did after 1 day of pre-sales. 

 

And while that's fine (it would suggest an 18.1m Opening Night for CM), that percentage WILL go down over the next few days, as The Movie Which Shall Not Be Named will almost certainly outsell it by a handy amount over the next three days or so before The Movie Which Shall Not Be Named starts its slow, inexorable, slowdown.

  

===

 

Now, even here, it's looking good between Captain Marvel and The Movie Which Shall Not Be Named, as Marvel movies historically have a very good run up in their last few days of pre-sales (especially day of premiere) and, for whatever reason, The Movie Which Shall Not Be Named... didn't.

 

But, as many of us have said before:  Just because it's happened before, doesn't necessarily mean it will happen again.

 

For me, the biggest wild card isn't so much reviews and initial reactions, though that's always important; it's the sheer length of pre-sales.  Just how much demand has already been burnt up in this unusually long (for a non-SW saga movie at least) pre-sale window?

 

That question will get answered more and more in the coming days.  But if one wants a Yellow Caution Flag outside of the normal concerns about reviews and buzz, that's it.

It's Solo isn't it

 

[Porthos]

(Ah, cool.  We're back. 👍)

((Data compiled late last night at roundabout the normal time))

 

====

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	83	7247	10709*	32.33%

*NOTE: A few theaters adjusted their blacked-out/unavailable seats in both directions, resulting in a net increase of five available seats

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              78

 

.4822x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 19 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.8211x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 19 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

3.6138x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 19 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.5344x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 19 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

 

Day T-19 Comp:

 

IW:        67 tickets sold [2 sellouts/116 showings |   3946/11125 seats left  | 64.53% sold]

DP2:   107 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings  |   9856/11757 seats left  | 16.17% sold]

JW2:     87 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings  |   9155/10113 seats left  |   9.47% sold]

FB2:     44 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings |  12011/13377 seats left |  10.21% sold]

Edited February 19, 2019 by Porthos
Forgot to add the second IW sellout

[Porthos]

15 hours ago, RealLyre said:

It's Solo isn't it

 

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

(Ah, cool.  We're back. 👍)

((Data compiled late last night at roundabout the normal time))

 

====

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	83	7247	10709*	32.33%

*NOTE: A few theaters adjusted their blacked-out/unavailable seats in both directions, resulting in a net increase of five available seats

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              78

 

.4822x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 19 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.8211x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 19 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

3.6138x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 19 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.5344x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 19 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

 

Day T-19 Comp:

 

IW:        67 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   3946/11125 seats left  | 64.53% sold]

DP2:   107 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings  |   9856/11757 seats left  | 16.17% sold]

JW2:     87 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings  |   9155/10113 seats left  |   9.47% sold]

FB2:     44 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings |  12011/13377 seats left |  10.21% sold]

nice it continues to sell well ,now lets just wait and see

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

(Ah, cool.  We're back. 👍)

((Data compiled late last night at roundabout the normal time))

 

====

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	83	7247	10709*	32.33%

*NOTE: A few theaters adjusted their blacked-out/unavailable seats in both directions, resulting in a net increase of five available seats

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              78

 

.4822x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 19 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.8211x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 19 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

3.6138x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 19 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.5344x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 19 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

 

Day T-19 Comp:

 

IW:        67 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   3946/11125 seats left  | 64.53% sold]

DP2:   107 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings  |   9856/11757 seats left  | 16.17% sold]

JW2:     87 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings  |   9155/10113 seats left  |   9.47% sold]

FB2:     44 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings |  12011/13377 seats left |  10.21% sold]

Can you add Ant Man and The Wasp in comp. Will be nice to compare with best and worst MCU opener in recent time.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Can you add Ant Man and The Wasp in comp. Will be nice to compare with best and worst MCU opener in recent time.

Didn't track AM&tW until about 3 or 4 days before release, so you'll have to wait I'm afraid.  Do plan on giving it (along with Venom ) when I have the data, though.

Edited February 18, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	83	7220	10705*	32.55%

*NOTE: One theater adjusted their blacked-out/unavailable seats in the downward direction for two of their showings, resulting in a decrease of four available seats

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              23

 

.4805x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 18 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.7566x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 18 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.1964x as many tickets sold as Solo 18 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

3.3033x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 18 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.4646x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 18 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

 

Day T-18 Comp:

 

IW:        74 tickets sold [2 sellout/116 showings |   3872/11125 seats left  | 65.20% sold]

DP2:     83 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings  |   9773/11757 seats left  | 16.88% sold]

Solo:   122 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings  |     6435/9348 seats left  | 32.40% sold]

JW2:      97 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings  |   9058/10113 seats left  | 10.43% sold]

FB2:      48 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings |  11963/13377 seats left  | 10.76% sold]

Edited February 19, 2019 by Porthos
Added second IW sellout

[Shivampa]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	83	7220	10705*	32.55%

*NOTE: One theater adjusted their blacked-out/unavailable seats in the downward direction for two of their showings, resulting in a decrease of four available seats

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              23

 

.4805x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 18 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.7566x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 18 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.1964x as many tickets sold as Solo 18 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

3.3033x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 18 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.4646x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 18 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

 

Day T-18 Comp:

 

IW:        74 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   3872/11125 seats left  | 65.20% sold]

DP2:     83 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings  |   9773/11757 seats left  | 16.88% sold]

Solo:   122 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings  |     6435/9348 seats left  | 32.40% sold]

JW2:      97 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings  |   9058/10113 seats left  | 10.43% sold]

FB2:      48 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings |  11963/13377 seats left  | 10.76% sold]

Wow.. This movie is like Solo.. So near the release and sold very less seats.. 

 

I think this gonna pull another solo.. The excitement had died down 

[raulbalarezo]

18 minutes ago, Shivampa said:

Wow.. This movie is like Solo.. So near the release and sold very less seats.. 

 

I think this gonna pull another solo.. The excitement had died down 

Lmao 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	83	7220	10705*	32.55%

*NOTE: One theater adjusted their blacked-out/unavailable seats in the downward direction for two of their showings, resulting in a decrease of four available seats

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              23

 

59 minutes ago, Shivampa said:

Wow.. This movie is like Solo.. So near the release and sold very less seats.. 

 

I think this gonna pull another solo.. The excitement had died down 

 

Strange how you didn't make this post about yesterday's or the day before yesterday's reports... 

 

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	83	7247	10709*	32.33%

*NOTE: A few theaters adjusted their blacked-out/unavailable seats in both directions, resulting in a net increase of five available seats

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              78

 

On 2/15/2019 at 10:50 PM, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	83	7320	10704	31.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              62

 

Yes.  Very strange indeed.   

Edited February 18, 2019 by Porthos

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, Shivampa said:

Wow.. This movie is like Solo.. So near the release and sold very less seats.. 

 

I think this gonna pull another solo.. The excitement had died down 

 

[terrestrial]

On 2/15/2019 at 5:00 AM, Porthos said:

Who, exactly, was 'expecting' $200m OW for Captain Marvel on this board?

 

No one I've seen, that's for sure.

 

On 2/15/2019 at 5:36 AM, Thanos Legion said:

I’ve seen at least 4 people repeatedly predict 200M in the CM thread, though I don’t know how many are being serious.

I think a few who seem to be actually anti the movie wrote those kind of numbers, it seemed to me maybe in the way to egg on others to heigh number expectations. Some wordings seem to prepare for ~ if it does 'only' $130m OW its proof for being inferior / reason why-ever they do wish it bad BO

Incl to ~ attack members with more reasonable approach (max possible if ratings are excellent,... are not the minimum to expect, an origin movie usually dos not make team-up numbers, not enough is known about trailers / promo for e.g. Endgame to be able to calculate Endgame's potential impact on CMs BO,...)

 

If I remember it right 1 of them got thread banned

 

Edited February 18, 2019 by terrestrial

[Napoleon]

Captain Marvel looking more and more like another Disny movie called Mary Poppins Returns