The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

BTW, just did a check.  With tonight's update, Captain Marvel (34.26%) has now passed the final percentage of seats sold of both FB2 (32.12%) and Venom (33.96%) locally.

 

This is NOT to say that it's sold as many tickets at final check locally, as there is screen/seat expansion when the final slates go up (not to mention differing amount of theaters the respective movies are playing at).  But I suspect CM won't be dipping under this marker when the final slates start rolling in.

Edited February 21, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

I dunno man, opening over 80M? Seems far fetched with the way tracking keeps dropping    

 

Spoiler

Since this is the internet, guess I should cover my back with an explicit /s   

 

Fun trivia.

 

[efialtes76]

6 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

That's so crazy that MT.com did away with their top 5.  

 

But if CM is already appearing on there, that's a good sign.  

 

If it can stay on there(barring the busy weekend) until release, then that's fantastic.  

No numbers this week? 

[lorddemaxus]

5 hours ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Can you read English?

Hey be nice. English is not his first language.

[Eric Lasagna]

DO NOT QUOTE OR ELSE THE STUFF IN THE SPOILER TAG GETS TAKEN OUT OF THE TAG FOR WHATEVER REASON IF YOU NEED TO QUOTE THIS PLEASE REMOVE THE SPOILER TAG FOR THE SAKE OF THE FORUM MEMBERS

 

Spoiler

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinkle In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1,204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1,282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade (1K expansion)	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching (1K expansion)	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1,469	3,607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Smallfoot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,890	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
Nutcracker	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
The Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Spider's Web	286	718	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	604	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Ralph 2 (Wed)	7,005	12,131	19,183	15,559
Creed II (Wed)	6,712	12,083	15,354	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1,846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (Wed) (1K expansion)	387	922	1,701	2,268
Possession of Hannah Grace	105	285	893	3,053
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	3,475
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	6,235
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (Wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins (Wed)	7,713	9,137	16,304
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063
Bumblebee	1,553	1,817	3,157
Second Act	353	611	1,204
Marwen	299	403	658
Escape Room	111	368	1,543	7,297
Dogs Way Home	259	623	1,516	3,257
On the Basis (2K expansion)	537	1,043	2,200	3,511
Replicas	21	133	336	1,002
Upside	394	1,431	3,669	8,602
Glass	3,106	3,978	6,478	17,810
Kid Who Would Be King	107	318	980	1,892
Serenity	6	128	1,074	2,708
Miss Bala	350	420	1,041	4,220
Lego Movie 2	2,552	4,130	8,601	13,320
What Men Want	1,383	2,505	5,405	9,328
Cold Pursuit	181	827	2,155	4,862
The Prodigy	161	359	847	2,288
Isn't It Romantic (Wed)	3,576	5,367	12,411	12,304
Happy Death Day 2U (Wed)	1,296	1,843	5,445	5,825
Alita Battle Angel (Thu)	4,252	6,072	11,483	15,500
How to Train Your Dragon 3	3,724	6,674	12,935
Fight w/ Family (2.5K expansion)	165	368	1,284
*4pm-12am

 

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

How to Train Your Dragon 3	3,724	6,674	12,935
Fight w/ Family (2.5K expansion)	165	368	1,284

 

 

Dragon 3 Comps:

33% of Incredibles 2 (60.1M)

241% of Christopher Robin (59.4M)

128% of Grinch (86.6M)

131% of Spider-Verse (46.4M)

86% of Aquaman (58.3M)

150% of Lego 2 (51.3M)

 

I still want to be pessimistic, but this sharply outpacing Lego is very good, and it should at least pass the 40M mark.

 

Family Comps:

82% of The Hate U Give's 2K expansion (6.3M)

58% of On the Basis of Sex's 2K expansion (3.5M)

 

Let's hope this follows Give instead of Basis

[Eric Lasagna]

Oh yeah, and upcoming movies.

 

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Captain Marvel

1,902

2,538

4,830

Us

35

48

54

 

 

So from Wednesday to Tuesday, that's about a 190% jump, which is very strong for a movie this far out. Those social media reactions are working their magic

[FlashMaster659]

What's the link you guys are using to access the MT top 5?

[Premium George]

On 6/13/2018 at 12:15 PM, Premium George said:

For those who missed it, there are many useful stuff from akvalley dude, here,

https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/462064

 

On 3/31/2018 at 12:46 AM, akvalley said:

Hey, there, everyone...

I'm not here regularly, but I've seen some chatter regarding MovieTiclets.com tracking and Fandango Pulse tracking.  

A couple of months ago, I created some hourly reports that track this info for a completely different purpose. 
Maybe it will help you out as well.   

Fandango Pulse Pipeline (resets on Mondays) 
http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

MovieTickets.com Top 5 (the MovieTickets.com website does not update overnight from about 8 PM CST - 6 AM CST)
http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/MT_track.txt

 

For everyone new. These links changed BOT forever.

[el sid]

Pulse always 8:50-9:04 EST:

 

HtTYD3: 227/15 minutes – yesterday at that time it were 100/15 (Lego 2 had on Wednesday at that time 120/15); The Grinch had on Thursday at that time 184/15 and Lego 2 had only 110/15 so it looks indeed good for HtTYD3!
Fighting with My Family: 20/15 minutes – yesterday at that time 12/15
 

And Pulse always 10:50-11:04 EST:
 

HtTYD3: 325/15 minutes – yesterday 134/15 (now How to Train Your Dragon 3 was in front of Lego 2 which had 117/15 on Wednesday at that time); The Grinch had 294/15 on Thursday at that time and Lego 2 had 160/15 which means that HtTYD3 is still in front of The Grinch at the moment and way ahead of Lego 2, I'm also surprised
Fighting with My Family: 34/15 minutes – yesterday 15/15; That's not that bad, e.g. better than Miss Bala with 25/15 and Hunter Killer with 24/15 but worse than Cold Pursuit with 47/15

And MT at the moment:

#1 HtTYD3 32.4% - The Grinch had ca. 29% at that time, Lego 2 ca. only the half
#2 Lego2 15.7%
#3 Alita 7.6%

#4 Captain Marvel 4.8%

#5 Isn't It Romantic 4.7%

[tupek]

Looks healthy for Dragon 3

[YM!]

I really want to believe $60M OW can happen for Dragon 3, the marketing has been strong.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Premium George said:

 

For everyone new. These links changed BOT forever.

Also for easy access, there is a repost of these links in the first post of this thread, along with the 24 hour rolling tracker for Fandango (which I'll also repost here):

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_past24hours.txt

[MCKillswitch123]

47 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I really want to believe $60M OW can happen for Dragon 3, the marketing has been strong.

Dammit dude, you said the same for Lego Movie 2, why you jinxing it?

[YM!]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

Dammit dude, you said the same for Lego Movie 2, why you jinxing it?

Don’t you put that evil on me  

[lor15]

HtTYD3 is such a beautiful film, i hope it continues strong with presales and a great ow, $60M would be amazing

[HouseOfTheSun]

Do we have any early indications on “US”. Hoping it can get to 50m

[Biggestgeekever]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-marvel-passes-up-aquaman-wonder-woman-presales-1188788

 

Quote

Advance ticket sales for Captain Marvel are the third biggest for any title in the Marvel Cinematic Universe behind Avengers: Infinity Warand Black Panther, according to Fandango.

 

To boot, Marvel and Disney's first female-fronted superhero pic is pacing ahead of DC's Aquaman and Wonder Woman in terms of presales at the same point in the cycle, according to the online ticket sales.

 

[Napoleon]

I would take these Fandango reports with a grain of salt considering Ant-Man and the Wasp was the #4 MCU movie at the time it was released but it had one of Marvel's lowest opening weekends. Maybe MCU has become very presales heavy especially after Avengers Infinity War.

 

I'm not rooting against Captain Marvel, I just hope fans don't set their expectations too high and then feel disappointed when the movie does less than the $200 million they are predicting. Anything over $100 million would be excellent for it. The budget clearly isn't high, and it's going to be a very profitable movie for Marvel. It will prove them female superheroes are just as commercially viable as the white male heroes they have been put front and center for an entire decade.

[HouseOfTheSun]

5 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

I would take these Fandango reports with a grain of salt considering Ant-Man and the Wasp was the #4 MCU movie at the time it was released but it had one of Marvel's lowest opening weekends. Maybe MCU has become very presales heavy especially after Avengers Infinity War.

 

I'm not rooting against Captain Marvel, I just hope fans don't set their expectations too high and then feel disappointed when the movie does less than the $200 million they are predicting. Anything over $100 million would be excellent for it. The budget clearly isn't high, and it's going to be a very profitable movie for Marvel. It will prove them female superheroes are just as commercially viable as the white male heroes they have been put front and center for an entire decade.

Could have fooled us 

Edited February 21, 2019 by HouseOfTheSun

[Alli]

Ant Man/wasp article said it was outpacing Doctor Strange. That's all. they were more reserved. DR Starnge earned 85M OW, but it was released two years earlier

Edited February 21, 2019 by Alli