The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Matthew]

Whatever you think and whichever side you are on.. This weekend is turning out to be very interesting atleast for me. I think Shazam is going to surprise people. 👨‍🎤👨‍🎤👨‍🎤

[Krissykins]

Just back from Pet Sematary and it deserves to do well.

 

Really well. 

[PenguinHyphy]

14 minutes ago, Lucasmessi12 said:

I'm sure Shazam will make at least $60m OW, these Fandango pre sales comps means nothing (US is another example), and I remember very well in December 2018 in Aquaman's debut week,  Mary Poppins was going to do more than Aquaman because they were selling pretty much the same, and that DC movies were a lot more presales heavy than  Disney live actions and blah blah  and What happened? these predictions all failed!

 

And  Lodrnox and Matthew are obvious trolls accounts (most likely from old members of this site, I doubt they are new). Just ignore what they say.

I do not get that example. Us' pre sales pointed at $70,000,000+, and that is where it opened. The pre sales for Captain Marvel pointed to $150,000,000+, and that is where it opened. The pre sales for Shazam appear to be more of a Glass situation, where the numbers suggest way lower than many posters are expecting. It is still early, but even if the movie opens to $45,000,000+, that is still not terrible. The numbers that posters have been baselessly throwing around are what has those numbers appearing to be terrible. Tracking has been around those numbers, so it is not going to be an underperformance if it opens there.     

Edited April 1, 2019 by PenguinHyphy

[DeeCee]

@LordNox has been threadbanned until 1st May 2019.

[cax16]

19 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

I do not get that example. Us' pre sales pointed at $70,000,000+, and that is where it opened. The pre sales for Captain Marvel pointed to $150,000,000+, and that is where it opened. The pre sales for Shazam appear to be more of a Glass situation, where the numbers suggest way lower than many posters are expecting. It is still early, but even if the movie opens to $45,000,000+, that is still not terrible. The numbers that posters have been baselessly throwing around are what has those numbers appearing to be terrible. Tracking has been around those numbers, so it is not going to be an underperformance if it opens there.     

The only difference with Shazam is it had the 3.3m of demand already burned, what does that mean in the end for this weekend? I think most people are having a hard time trying to figure that out cause there’s no real good comps for Shazam. 

Edited April 1, 2019 by cax16

[Nova]

I said early last week, that Shazam wasn't selling too hot at my theater and it's still the same scenario. I thought with really good reviews that it could push sales but that hasn't seemed to happen yet. That doesn't mean there won't be a last minute push in sales but I am starting to think that a $40-$50M OW is actually where Shazam will be heading rather than the $70M+ I thought it could hit with good reviews. 

[Matthew]

GOOD NEWS

 

SHAZAM IS IN MT.COM TOP 5 

 

AT 5TH POSITION AT 3.6%

 

50M+ OW INCOMING

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

I said early last week, that Shazam wasn't selling too hot at my theater and it's still the same scenario. I thought with really good reviews that it could push sales but that hasn't seemed to happen yet. That doesn't mean there won't be a last minute push in sales but I am starting to think that a $40-$50M OW is actually where Shazam will be heading rather than the $70M+ I thought it could hit with good reviews. 

Said it before, and I'll say it again.  If Shazam! is in the ballpark of Ant-Man unadjusted, it's a pure win.  57/180 might be a tough climb with Endgame out there, but I think 52/160 or thereabouts would have to be viewed as a success when everything is taken into context.  

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Said it before, and I'll say it again.  If Shazam! is in the ballpark of Ant-Man unadjusted, it's a pure win.  57/180 might be a tough climb with Endgame out there, but I think 52/160 or thereabouts would have to be viewed as a success when everything is taken into context.  

 

Agreed. Honestly with the low budget this could make significantly less than Ant-Man WW and still be profitable. Not sure why a 45ish million opening would be considered so terrible.

[PenguinHyphy]

4 minutes ago, cax16 said:

The only difference with Shazam is it had the 3.3m of demand already burned, why does that mean in the end for this weekend? I think most people are having a hard time trying to figure that out cause there’s no real good comps for Shazam. 

Aquaman is the perfect comparison to it for that very reason. It is a DC origin movie that has Amazon pre sales. Aquaman also opened around that number with Amazon shows, right? No, Shazam is not opening in December, but Shazam is not opening in the same season as the other movies to which posters are comparing it to either. I am not understanding the hesitation with December either. If the argument is that December suppresses openings but gives better legs, Shazam oughta have much better pre sales than Aquaman, right? The Monday numbers are not out yet, but there is nothing to suggest that it is extreme to compare it to Aquaman. Aquaman actually opened pretty much at its tracking numbers, and that appears to be where Shazam is right now. Posters appear to be refuting the Aquaman comparisons because they have been propagating the $70,000,000+ or $80,000,000+ notions, but Shazam's opening is not going to be terrible if it opens where industry projections suggest.  

[cax16]

2 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Aquaman is the perfect comparison to it for that very reason. It is a DC origin movie that has Amazon pre sales. Aquaman also opened around that number with Amazon shows, right? No, Shazam is not opening in December, but Shazam is not opening in the same season as the other movies to which posters are comparing it to either. I am not understanding the hesitation with December either. If the argument is that December suppresses openings but gives better legs, Shazam oughta have much better pre sales than Aquaman, right? The Monday numbers are not out yet, but there is nothing to suggest that it is extreme to compare it to Aquaman. Aquaman actually opened pretty much at its tracking numbers, and that appears to be where Shazam is right now. Posters appear to be refuting the Aquaman comparisons because they have been propagating the $70,000,000+ or $80,000,000+ notions, but Shazam's opening is not going to be terrible if it opens where industry projections suggest.  

You could be right, I have no idea. And for the record I think Shazam opening around initial tracking is more then fine. 

[grim22]

Moderation: NOT the fanboy wars thread. Please report anyone trying to start something and the mods will take care of it. Do not engage in troll fights.

[JB33]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Just back from Pet Sematary and it deserves to do well.

 

Really well. 

Great to hear!! Can't wait! Doing Shazam! on opening day Friday and Pet Sematary on Saturday.

[AnDr3s]

2019-04-01 23:00:21.284426 UTC
1       26.7%	Dumbo
2	24.1%	Us
3	14.1%	Captain Marvel
4	8%	Unplanned
5	4%	Shazam

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Aquaman is the perfect comparison to it for that very reason. It is a DC origin movie that has Amazon pre sales. Aquaman also opened around that number with Amazon shows, right? No, Shazam is not opening in December, but Shazam is not opening in the same season as the other movies to which posters are comparing it to either. I am not understanding the hesitation with December either. If the argument is that December suppresses openings but gives better legs, Shazam oughta have much better pre sales than Aquaman, right? The Monday numbers are not out yet, but there is nothing to suggest that it is extreme to compare it to Aquaman. Aquaman actually opened pretty much at its tracking numbers, and that appears to be where Shazam is right now. Posters appear to be refuting the Aquaman comparisons because they have been propagating the $70,000,000+ or $80,000,000+ notions, but Shazam's opening is not going to be terrible if it opens where industry projections suggest.  

My hesitation with Aquaman is that a lot of folks prebuy the "family" excursion for the entire Xmas season early (and they gift tickets, too)...so the presales aren't just opening weekend presales, more for that timeframe than pretty much any other time frame.

 

I still like the comp b/c presales have only been getting stronger, so Shazam should need a higher presale number to open as high as Aquaman, all else equal (which it isn't quite), so Aquaman having some presales that weren't for OW in their number should combat that...

 

For example, in layman's terms...

 

Aquaman presales of 5000 might have 4000 for OW and 1000 for the following week

Shazam presales of 5000 might have 4900 for OW and 100 for the following week (probably cheap Tuesday)

 

In this scenario, Shazam would actually have the higher presales for OW, even though they both had presold the same...

 

[XXR vs XXR]

12 hours until Endgame tickets go on sale! 

 

[TalismanRing]

48 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

My hesitation with Aquaman is that a lot of folks prebuy the "family" excursion for the entire Xmas season early (and they gift tickets, too)...so the presales aren't just opening weekend presales, more for that timeframe than pretty much any other time frame.

 

I still like the comp b/c presales have only been getting stronger, so Shazam should need a higher presale number to open as high as Aquaman, all else equal (which it isn't quite), so Aquaman having some presales that weren't for OW in their number should combat that...

 

For example, in layman's terms...

 

Aquaman presales of 5000 might have 4000 for OW and 1000 for the following week

Shazam presales of 5000 might have 4900 for OW and 100 for the following week (probably cheap Tuesday)

 

In this scenario, Shazam would actually have the higher presales for OW, even though they both had presold the same...

 

Considering how well the AQM pre-sales lined up with Venom etc and that the o/w bore out those numbers later buying for AQM doesn't seemed to have skewed pre-sales to any noticeable effect.

 

We've also gone though this before - like when when JL and FB2 came out - people insisting that the pre-sales weren't telling us what they were telling us and that they'd be walk up heavy.

[TMP]

10 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

We've also gone though this before - like when when JL and FB2 came out - people insisting that the pre-sales weren't telling us what they were telling us and that they'd be walk up heavy.

Justice League and a Harry Potter film are gonna be more pre-sale heavy than a family film like Shazam. The former are both follow ups/culminations to big IP franchises, and also didn't burn off demand with early fan screenings. Also neither film had great reviews or positive WOM, which would both only encourage walkups

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, TMP said:

Justice League and a Harry Potter film are gonna be more pre-sale heavy than a family film like Shazam. The former are both follow ups/culminations to big IP franchises, and also didn't burn off demand with early fan screenings. Also neither film had great reviews or positive WOM, which would both only encourage walkups

I know they are, and I've said so several times.

 

I'm disagreeing with the idea that AQM numbers weren't indicative of it's ow - b/c Christmas planning skewed them - when it was - to explain why the Shazam numbers aren't as low as they currently look.  and that Shazam's numbers could be pointing toward an o/w as big or bigger than AQM

 

Also, while it skews more family and younger it still a PG-13 CBM who's strong sneak peaks show it has a significant fan base.   It's going to behave more like AM, AM&TW than BVS, SS, JL, Venom but not like an animated films or even  Jurassic World.

[Brinatico]

	Monday	tuesday	Wen.	Thursday
Dumbo	3,069	4,624	9,193	16,102

 

This was Dumbo last week and some around here make a prediction of 60M+. I going to follow Shazam! Numbers this week and get a idea base on Dumbo numbers.  Both are family movies.

Edited April 2, 2019 by Brinatico