The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[YM!]

3 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Pure family film to me is unlikely. Many kids will have zero interest in this. It's targeting adults and older kids who like/love Pokemon. I think people exaggerate the size of the target market. It's a similar problem that Shazam faced due to darker content and PG-13 rating. Still the target market is much bigger for Pika. 

Anecdotal Evidence I know but from I’ve seen for most movies I have gotten this with and what I’ve heard from other tends to kill it with kids.

[XXR vs XXR]

@Menor Can you run an update for your Cinemark tracking?

[cdsacken]

56 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Anecdotal Evidence I know but from I’ve seen for most movies I have gotten this with and what I’ve heard from other tends to kill it with kids.

Some kids not younger ones. This will work for kids probably 8+ somewhat, really well for like 11+. That's why I'm cautious on WW numbers.

Edited April 15, 2019 by cdsacken

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Numerous? Apart from one or two no one is predicting $1.5B-$2B

Lol there are loads of them

[Premium George]

5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Lol there are loads of them

I think you are missing the jokes. 

[cdsacken]

I'd love to see someone make a Pikachu over Lion King club. I bet several would be in. They are crazy as well, I was chastised for suggesting 1.2-1.5 billion for Lion King.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I'd love to see someone make a Pikachu over Lion King club. I bet several would be in. They are crazy as well, I was chastised for suggesting 1.2-1.5 billion for Lion King.

I did make one for biggest of the summer DOM (excluding Endgame) but that was me being bold. I have made tons of club that have failed (Lego Batman over $300M, and there’s probably a dozen more, I honestly have lost track at the amount of clubs I’ve made here) and made tons that have succeeded (I2 biggest of the summer, Ant Man 2 over Solo) just like many people here, we overpredict, we underpredict. But I don’t really think Pikachu will be the biggest of the summer.

 

 

There’s only 2-3 real people who think $1.5B or anything over Lion King is happening, one a hardcore WB stan, and the other is The Panda. Frankly, the only reason why some of you are so in arms is because of the joke Endgame comparisons

[filmlover]

25 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Frankly, the only reason why some of you are so in arms is because of the joke Endgame comparisons

But are they?

 

[Premium George]

46 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I'd love to see someone make a Pikachu over Lion King club. I bet several would be in. They are crazy as well, I was chastised for suggesting 1.2-1.5 billion for Lion King.

Or you are not good at detecting jokes. You should work on that.

[cdsacken]

14 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Or you are not good at detecting jokes. You should work on that.

Some are jokes, many are not. When you joke about it 500 times at some point it's not a joke.

[Premium George]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Some are jokes, many are not. When you joke about it 500 times at some point it's not a joke.

98% are jokes. Very very annoying, but still jokes. And they are so obvious that you have to have no humor to detect them. Still very annoying.

[cdsacken]

I'd say like 90% and that's way too many. To be frank I got killed for saying it would be closer to 500 than 1.5 billion. Mind you if it's 999 million I'm still right so it's not much of a stretch to say that. Let's agree to disagree.

[YM!]

10 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I'd say like 90% and that's way too many. To be frank I got killed for saying it would be closer to 500 than 1.5 billion. Mind you if it's 999 million I'm still right so it's not much of a stretch to say that. Let's agree to disagree.

Again, the most obnoxious tend to amplify, we know that for all fanbases, like take the CBM/SW fanboys scourge, we have a lot of good fans who are members of the board where as the obvious fanboys ruin the image.

[cdsacken]

Fair enough I actually hope it does well. If it does 1 or even 1.5 billion and I'm wrong all the better. I've been wrong countless times and often it's been to my benefit  

 

I remember telling my boss in 2016, 99% chance my wife doesn't get the job in England then a week later saying just kidding I was wrong.

Edited April 15, 2019 by cdsacken

[Boxofficerules]

Do you guys seriously believe that Endgame is going to be able to fend off Hellboys 3rd weekend?

 

[Eric Lasagna]

Movie/Time	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Avengers: Endgame	28,434	23,630	25,480	23,680	15,554	10,718	16,568
	18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days	14 days	13 days	12 days
Detective Pikachu			1,329	766	368	221	238
			30 days	29 days	28 days	27 days	26 days
John Wick 3	99	59	56	32	21	21	24
	39 days	38 days	37 days	36 days	35 days	34 days	33 days
Secret Life of Pets 2			1	84	28	20	19
			58 days	57 days	56 days	55 days	54 days

 

Avengers

Day 17-12

178% of Black Panther (360.7M)

 

Last 7 days (18-12)

208% of Infinity War (535.6M)

653% of Captain Marvel (1B)

 

Day 22-12

248% of Infinity War (640.4M)

813% of Captain Marvel (1.2B)

 

Cumulative

96% of Infinity War (246.6M)

288% of Captain Marvel (442.1M)

 

Pikachu

First 5 days

14% of Captain Marvel (21.4M)

765% of Dragon 3 (420.9M)

114% of Dumbo (52.7M)

136% of Shazam! (72.8M)

 

Day 30-26

544% of Dragon 3 (299.4M)

45% of Captain Marvel (69.5M)

 

Cumulative

318% of Dragon 3 (174.9M)

 

So yeah, Avengers doing fantastic and Pokemon doing fine. Too tired to deal with Wick/Pets, but maybe in the next couple o weeks?

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, Premium George said:

Or you are not good at detecting jokes. You should work on that.

Problem with jokes (I am aware there are mostly jokes) is,

- too much repeats,

- not considering newbies not aware about whats probably reality

- some wordings are very sloppy, or telegram style, a foreign language speaker not knowings what up, will not see there is a joke with a high probability in that case.

- ppl not soooo much into a certain material, that might not be often in a certain thread, too can get a wrrong impression

 

But if the impression is already planted, future post often get understood the same way.

 

Only if someone points it out, something triggers doubt, ... a reavulation might happen for enough to be not the cause for misunderstandings, strange irritations and so on later on.

 

Maybe make it simpler for those per e.g. using matchin emotjis, joke hints, .... more often?

 

 

[Nova]

A movie that’s rated PG and has talking animal like creatures is no longer targeting families? 

 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

43 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

So yeah, Avengers doing fantastic and Pokemon doing fine. Too tired to deal with Wick/Pets, but maybe in the next couple o weeks?

 

That would be great. Thank you. 

 

Definitely going to be more frontloaded. 

Edited April 15, 2019 by EarlyDeadlinePredictions

[charlie Jatinder]

75 + 12 FSS : 87

say around 13cr in weekdays : 100

15cr in next weekend : 115

25cr in next 4 days: 140

 

round down to 130. 

 

+25% TFA

+50% TLJ

+120% IW

 

these are basically estimates for EG and believe me very conservative.

 

I can do some math on opening day final pre-sales, that's almost +/- 5% accurate.