The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nova]

10 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Pika is tracking on BOP for a 90+ OW.

BOP isn't a magic eight ball. 

 

Still love all the work you guys do @Shawn

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Pika is tracking on BOP for a 90+ OW.

That’s just a guessing, though

 

According to Forbes the official tracking is + $ 50M OW (which obviously will increase).

 

 

[Nova]

14 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Nothing has recovered cause Endgame is here and that's what all the trades said. Why not wait till Monday to start this? Geez in the other thread you said sales are good and now it's bad. I don't understand this back and forth mentality but then again I don't understand tracking box office yet. So IDK how it works.

I said sales were good days ago based on Deep Wang's update at the MTC he gets info from BUT its Fandango sales have been abysmal especially the last couple days.  

Edited April 24, 2019 by Nova

[Legion Again]

22 minutes ago, Nova said:

$750M-$1B domestically imo

Come join me in the sun Nova.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Wow, outstanding day for EG it appears. Where does it get to now if it sells the same amount of seats as IW thru your final report tomorrow evening?

Not much of a change, as it "only" did 350 more tickets on the day-to-day, so if you're again "only" adding 350 tickets to a hypothetical 20600 ticket pile, it just doesn't move the needle much.

 

I think the better question is:  What happens if EG does 33% to 50% better than IW did over the last two days locally? (EG did approx 50% more on an adj basis yesterday)

The showtimes that got added last night (and this morning*) tells me it is very possible for EG adj to do around 3k to 3.5k ticket sales (IW sold 2368 tickets over the last two days until stop of tracking).

 

* Whoops, spoiler alert 

 

If that happens, I think that while it still doesn't beat TFA in so-called World Two (the comps from Solo, JW2, and AM2 point to 54-55m in that scenario) it does show that we are MUCH more likely to be in World One (the comps from IW and BP point to 65-68m) where it beats TFA like a red headed stepchild.

 

Which is... probably still not going to happen. Maybe. So instead consider World Three, an mid-point between World One and Two:  60.5m

 

That might be close to my final answer, depending on how the last couple of days go.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Porthos

[HouseOfTheSun]

Also, Breakaway is a A+ banger

[Nero]

16 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Pika is tracking on BOP for a 90+ OW.

That is prediction not tracking

[Nova]

The whole Breakaway album right 

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Come join me in the sun Nova.

I mean at this point I am hoping it takes down Gone With the Wind 

 

Come through Japan. Come through China. Come through South America. 

 

Come through repeat viewings!

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

If that happens, I think that while it still doesn't beat TFA in so-called World Two (the comps from Solo, JW2, and AM2 point to 54-55m in that scenario) it does show that we are MUCH more likely to be in World One (the comps from IW and BP point to 65-68m) where it beats TFA like a red headed stepchild.

 

Which is... probably still not going to happen. Maybe. So instead consider World Three, an mid-point between World One and Two:  60.5m

 

That might be close to my final answer, depending on how the last couple of days go.

By the way, I'm really not trying to equivocate here or have it both ways.  My comps really are pointing to two distinct scenarios (just short of TFA Thr or obliterating it) and I really don't know which one it is. 

 

When it comes right down to it, the flood of showtimes will probably overwhelm TFA.  If it doesn't, literally the ONLY reason will be run-time, as the demand is clearly there to topple TFA's preview number.

[Eric Burnett]

Guess my reporting struck a nerve.

 

While I have no scientific proof, I do agree with @HouseOfTheSun that Endgame weekend is hurting Pulse sales this week. It's fair to say when it comes to people purchasing tickets on Fandango, people want to get tickets for a movie that's getting rapidly sold out across the country, and other movies are on the back burner. Besides, neither Pikachu nor Wick are all that pre-sales driven in the first place.

 

Now if Monday or Tuesday roll around, and they're still selling around 150-400 tickets, then there's reason for concern.

[stfletch]

AIW Date	Days to Open	AIW Tickets	AEG Date	AEG Tickets	AEG/AIW	Notes
2018-03-16	41	29,410
2018-03-17	40	16,237
2018-03-18	39	10,631
2018-03-19	38	14,574
2018-03-20	37	9,366
2018-03-21	36	8,281
2018-03-22	35	6,101
2018-03-23	34	3,753
2018-03-24	33	2,426
2018-03-25	32	3,655
2018-03-26	31	5,191
2018-03-27	30	4,647
2018-03-28	29	4,241
2018-03-29	28	3,060
2018-03-30	27	2,134
2018-03-31	26	2,471
2018-04-01	25	3,662
2018-04-02	24	7,257
2018-04-03	23	6,866	2019-04-02	330,000		Pulse down entire day
2018-04-04	22	7,917	2019-04-03	40,000		Pulse down until around 7pm CST
2018-04-05	21	5,692	2019-04-04	30,292	5.3
2018-04-06	20	3,618	2019-04-05	17,428	4.8
2018-04-07	19	3,383	2019-04-06	11,697	3.5
2018-04-08	18	6,363	2019-04-07	16,137	2.5
2018-04-09	17	10,828	2019-04-08	28,219	2.6
2018-04-10	16	8,670	2019-04-09	24,701	2.8
2018-04-11	15	13,960	2019-04-10	25,617	1.8
2018-04-12	14	13,332	2019-04-11	23,680	1.8
2018-04-13	13	7,614	2019-04-12	15,554	2.0
2018-04-14	12	5,602	2019-04-13	11,720	2.1
2018-04-15	11	9,314	2019-04-14	17,436	1.9
2018-04-16	10	18,403	2019-04-15	26,081	1.4
2018-04-17	9	19,431	2019-04-16	28,287	1.5
2018-04-18	8	23,790	2019-04-17	34,783	1.5
2018-04-19	7	18,788	2019-04-18	28,851	1.5
2018-04-20	6	14,281	2019-04-19	23,629	1.7
2018-04-21	5	12,368	2019-04-20	20,956	1.7
2018-04-22	4	27,180	2019-04-21	36,215	1.3
2018-04-23	3	48,861	2019-04-22	55,387	1.1
2018-04-24	2	55,376	2019-04-23	59,396	1.1
2018-04-25	1	68,137
2018-04-26	0	76,734
* Estimate based on using Fandango Comment that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week
**Estimate based on the fact we had about 1/4th of the days data

[IceFire9yt]

Lets just take a look at the top 10 best opening weekends

 

Infinity War - 2.63x

The Force Awakens - 3.78x

The Last Jedi - 2.82x

Jurassic World - 3.12x

The Avengers - 3.01x

Black Panther - 3.47x

Age of Ultron - 2.4x

Incredibles 2 - 3.33x

Civil War - 2.28x

Beauty and the Beast - 2.88x

 

That is a really solid set of multipliers.  The only two that have poor multis are Age of Ultron and Civil War, but its kind of hard to claim that the size of the opening weekend is the cause of this, since Infinity War, The Avengers, and Black Panther had better multipliers off of better opening weekends.  Like, the lowest opening Avengers movie has the worst legs.  Or look at TFA, which has a better multiplier than Rogue One or TLJ, again despite having a larger opening weekend. Or look at Jurassic World, which has a better multiplier than The Fallen Kingdom despite opening far higher.

 

This idea that a big opening week leads to a poor multiplier strikes me as one of those 'common sense' things that actually has no support if you look at the data.  The more people who see a movie on opening weekend, the more people who would consider re-watching it later, and the more people there are to tell their friends and family about the movie, and the more media buzz the movie generates to entice more people to see it.  To be fair, there are going to be some diminishing returns on these effects as a movie reaches saturation, but even a 300M OW would be less than 10% of the US population.

[Biggestgeekever]

re: beating TFA's preview numbers. At the risk of this biting me in the ass, I think it's about a 90% certainty at this point. The biggest concern right now is it being super frontloaded to presales, but that said the way its performing overseas so far seems pretty suggestive that there will still be a ton of late ticket buyers here too (and they're probably gonna be in for a shock at the seats that are left).

[cdsacken]

11 minutes ago, Nero said:

That is prediction not tracking

Indeed tracking is nowhere near that and it's sales in China are non-existent.

We will know more after Japan premier and reviews. Could improve rapidly or they may not need it. We shall see but I'm definitely assuming End Game is going to hurt it. No guarantee it even beats End Game on week 3.

 

But it's also possible End Game does 75 in it's 3rd weekend and Pika does 90. We shall see.

Edited April 24, 2019 by cdsacken

[Eric Burnett]

Moving the conversation away a little bit...

 

Aladdin has showtimes up, but not available for purchase at one or two theaters near me. Nothing all that exciting right now, but there are a few interesting tidbits: For starters, previews look to start at 6. Good news for comparisons, as it will be much easier to compare Aladdin with Solo and Pirates 5 (the latter especially seems like a great comp).

 

Also, this is getting the "Opening Night Fan Event" treatment. Good for it I guess.

[cdsacken]

Aladdin so better be good. I'm bitter after Dumbo

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Moving the conversation away a little bit...

Aladdin has showtimes up

You have NO IDEA how tempted I was to drop a "" reaction on your post there.

 

(or maybe you do )

[Porthos]

41 minutes ago, stfletch said:

Estimate:

	AIW		Factor		AEG Est.
THU	$39,000,000	x	1.56	=	$60,999,464

 

I swear I didn't see this post when I gave a "World Three" projection of 60.5m.

(I was busy typing away for one thing )

 

[Eric Burnett]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

You have NO IDEA how tempted I was to drop a "" reaction on your post there.

 

(or maybe you do )

I would, but here's the thing: Rumors are that Aladdin will start ticket sales on Monday, after Endgame is done. So the most annoying movie of the bunch is out of there. At least for my Fandango tracking, that's good for me.