The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[HouseOfTheSun]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

You have NO IDEA how tempted I was to drop a "" reaction on your post there.

 

(or maybe you do )

Porthos you need a week sabattical atleast 

[Thrylos 7]

Movies like the Pokémon one, John Wick 3, Aladdin are not true competition for endgame. If these are the “blockbuster after blockbuster” people are referring to then endgame has nothing to be afraid of.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Porthos you need a week sabattical atleast 

I might have to settle for a four-day weekend.

 

(thankfully right now I can knock out Pika Pika in a heartbeat)

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

That’s just a guessing, though

 

According to Forbes the official tracking is + $ 50M OW (which obviously will increase).

 

 

This is a very common misconception about tracking that the trades don't explain very well. Anytime you see the words "official tracking", it's almost always just a managed number derived by assessing audience interest surveys across several different tracking agencies. Those agencies often deviate from one another by a large margin, and when that happens, the trades generally just report the lowest figure because that's what will keep the studios happy by limiting over-projections.

 

It's also important to note that most of the writers putting together those trade reports don't interpret the numbers themselves (the exception being Boxoffice since we interpret and report on our data). Most (if not all) of the trades just report what they're told by someone else, who is getting the numbers from someone else. Technically, none of this information is even supposed to be available because it's a paid service, but it's become so common that there's no stopping the reports now.

 

For instance, only one tracking service was at $50M for Pika last week. At least two others were over $70M, and Boxoffice, as you know, is at $90M. All of these examples (including Boxoffice) rely on data-driven surveys and metrics -- not wild "guesses" by any means. (Though no system is perfect!)

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, Shawn said:

This is a very common misconception about tracking that the trades don't explain very well. Anytime you see the words "official tracking", it's almost always just a managed number derived by assessing audience interest surveys across several different tracking agencies. Those agencies often deviate from one another by a large margin, and when that happens, the trades generally just report the lowest figure because that's what will keep the studios happy by limiting over-projections.

 

It's also important to note that most of the writers putting together those trade reports don't interpret the numbers themselves (the exception being Boxoffice since we interpret and report on our data). Most (if not all) of the trades just report what they're told by someone else, who is getting the numbers from someone else. Technically, none of this information is even supposed to be available because it's a paid service, but it's become so common that there's no stopping the reports now.

 

For instance, only one tracking service was at $50M for Pika last week. At least two others were over $70M, and Boxoffice, as you know, is at $90M. All of these examples (including Boxoffice) rely on data-driven surveys and metrics -- not wild "guesses."

I took a screen shot of this comment because I honestly never knew that this is how tracking works.  Thank you so so much for explaining how it works. Should be bookmarked to the front page of this thread tbh 

 

Also, just so I am not spreading false info on the boards, BOP has access to that data you mentioned and that's how you guys make your predictions, correct? So you're technically using the same info that the trades are using but you actually have direct access to it? Did I understand that correctly? 

Edited April 24, 2019 by Nova

[HouseOfTheSun]

BoP has their own surveys they conduct right? 

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, Shawn said:

This is a very common misconception about tracking that the trades don't explain very well. Anytime you see the words "official tracking", it's almost always just a managed number derived by assessing audience interest surveys across several different tracking agencies. Those agencies often deviate from one another by a large margin, and when that happens, the trades generally just report the lowest figure because that's what will keep the studios happy by limiting over-projections

Do you know if the formula that traduce the awareness, top 3, first choice, etc... use days before release has a variable ?

 

Or the result talked about in the trade are if release next weekend type ?

[YM!]

46 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Movies like the Pokémon one, John Wick 3, Aladdin are not true competition for endgame. If these are the “blockbuster after blockbuster” people are referring to then endgame has nothing to be afraid of.

I think the three will all do okay (both Pikachu and Aladdin should benefit from lack of family fare) just not as big as Endgame. In fact, in hindsight Endgame has no direct competition in terms of action tentpoles until Godzilla, which should help legs.

[Thrylos 7]

6 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I think the three will all do okay (both Pikachu and Aladdin should benefit from lack of family fare) just not as big as Endgame. In fact, in hindsight Endgame has no direct competition in terms of action tentpoles until Godzilla, which should help legs.

Agreed. They might do well, I doubt for Aladdin, but they won’t really affect endgame.

[Porthos]

 

 

The showtimes keep adding no matter what. The pre-sales are not ramping down. We're just getting started.

 

Nothing stops this train.

 

Nothing.

[Lordmandeep]

only thing I see effecting Endgame and that is if Pika breaks out huge...

 

that will mean a 50% drop in the third weekend instead of 45%

 

Seeing

 

285 million

129 million -55%

65 million -50%

36 million - 44%

27 million - 25% (4 day)

 

(total 720 million) 

 

I just think the hype is gonna bring in a lot of casuals and people will be watching this 2-3 times who normally dont watch movies 2-3 times.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Lordmandeep

[Stewart]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

The showtimes keep adding no matter what. The pre-sales are not ramping down. We're just getting started.

 

Nothing stops this train.

 

Nothing.

30,000 seats yet? 

[XXR vs XXR]

Not doing the full update for my theater until 830pm CST to match with my final update for Infinity War, but I just did a preliminary check of a few of the latest show times and yeeaaaa....

 

Gonna be a big jump from my Saturday number.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Stewart said:

30,000 seats yet? 

Spoiler

This is neither confirmation nor denial, BTW. 

 

[Krissykins]

11 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Seeing

285 million

I just can’t see at this stage and after China previews more than tripling IW, anything under $300m. 

 

 

[Ars]

It's the eve of the big day, I pulled some post RT score ticket sales numbers for Endgame at the Cineplex VIP in Ottawa:

 

Cineplex Cinemas Lansdowne and VIP

Thursday April 25, 2019

 

VIP 3D

6:40pm - 75/78 (96% sold) - Only handicap seats left

8:00pm - 77/82 (94% sold)

10:50pm - 76/78 (97.4% sold) - Only handicap seats left

12:15pm - 66/82 (80.5% sold)

 

VIP

6:00pm - 63/66 (95.5% sold) - Only handicap seats left

7:20pm - 106/111 (95.5% sold) - Only handicap seats left

10:10pm - 61/66 (92% sold)

11:30pm - 106/111 (95.5% sold) - Only handicap seats left

 

UltraAVX 3D Atmos

7:00pm - 246/253 (97% sold) - Only handicap seats left

11:00pm - 233/253 (92% sold)

 

Regular 3D

6:30pm - 207/276 (75% sold)

10:30pm - 116/276 (42% sold)

 

Regular

6:00pm - 209/245 (85.3% sold)

10:00pm - 122/245 (50% sold)

11:15pm - 51/150 (34% sold)

 

Compared to yesterday, one more VIP showing is sold out(minus handicap/handler seats), and there are now only two showings that are under 50% sold(both non-premium late night showings), and I suspect that they will quickly fill up as well as the Endgame hype reaches its fever pitch.

[Deep Wang]

2 hours ago, Nova said:

I said sales were good days ago based on Deep Wang's update at the MTC he gets info from BUT its Fandango sales have been abysmal especially the last couple days.  

 

Starting on Monday, EG had already sold more in presales than any other movie in MTC's history. So let's look at this a few different ways:

 

1) What the hell else is left to sell??  The best times and best seats are all most likely gone. 

 

2) Keep in mind that it's still selling above the pace of IW's final week daily numbers(which is usually when a large share, if not the largest share of tickets are sold) 

 

3)Now, think about how it had already sold double what IW sold by Monday and it's still outpacing it daily on the final approach.  

 

4)Then think again about number 1 above and how it's STILL outselling IW with non-prime showtimes!  

 

I know I mentioned it before, but we are in uncharted territory with presales.  Everyone else has been assuming this was going to get to 50m MTC, but I haven't been as confident, mostly because of reason #1.  We shall see.

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

  Reveal hidden contents

This is neither confirmation nor denial, BTW. 

 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Starting on Monday, EG had already sold more in presales than any other movie in MTC's history. So let's look at this a few different ways:

 

1) What the hell else is left to sell??  The best times and best seats are all most likely gone. 

 

2) Keep in mind that it's still selling above the pace of IW's final week daily numbers(which is usually when a large share, if not the largest share of tickets are sold) 

 

3)Now, think about how it had already sold double what IW sold by Monday and it's still outpacing it daily on the final approach.  

 

4)Then think again about number 1 above and how it's STILL outselling IW with non-prime showtimes!  

 

I know I mentioned it before, but we are in uncharted territory with presales.  Everyone else has been assuming this was going to get to 50m MTC, but I haven't been as confident, mostly because of reason #1.  We shall see.

I was talking about Pikachu’s (and Wick’s) presales not End Games  End Game could stop selling tickets right now and no way no how would I call it’s presales abysmal  

[Deep Wang]

Just now, Nova said:

I was talking about Pikachu’s (and Wick’s) presales not End Games  End Game could stop selling tickets right now and no way no how would I call it’s presales abysmal  

 

 

oops.