The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Hmmm.  Not sure I really have much to say.

 

Aladdin was kinda flatish.  Tied Pikachu on a per-day basis for the first time, which isn't the greatest of signs.  Just kinda sat there.

 

 ...

 

Yeah, just kinda sat there might be the perfect way to describe it.   Which really isn't a great sign 11 days away.

 

===

 

KotM?  It definitely is in a slow period now. Not seeing as much growth at the PLF screens that I kinda thought I would be.  Those missing theaters are making it tough to adjust, especially since I can't know for sure if people are sayin' eff-it and going to a different theater or just waiting in the wings.

 

It's doing decent.  Good.  Slow but sure.  It ain't busting out and it ain't flatlining.  I think I might like to see it be a little more lively, but it's hard to say with 20% of the local market missing.  

 

As I check, it's outsold Pika Pika and Aladdin each of its first three days, so it's go that going for it.  Which is nice.

 

Honestly, I'm at the stage of the game where I like to look at groups of days instead of day-to-day.  I'll probably shift to X-days from release within the next couple of days, for what it's worth. 

 

Ask me again on Thursday or so for some more KotM thoughts as by then I think I might have a good enough look at the patterns to solidify my current thoughts.

 

Unless I see something that makes me want to offer some on my own, of course.

Got it, thanks Porthos! Interesting that my theater's basically doing the same thing as your area @KoTM outselling Pikachu and Aladdin.

[Eric Prime]

With the week over with...

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

John Wick 3	1,076	1,134	1,355	1,178	1,076	1,199	2,658
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days	5 days
Aladdin	663	687	804	747	495	528	792
	18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days	14 days	13 days	12 days
Pets 2 Early		1,402	531	234	129	103	175
		18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days	14 days	13 days
Godzilla	16	180	426	376	1,391	734	639
	25 days	24 days	23 days	22 days	21 days	20 days	19 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	28	33	26	24	17	21	30
	32 days	31 days	30 days	29 days	28 days	27 days	26 days
Dark Phoenix	0	12	56	89	92	84	116
		31 days	30 days	29 days	28 days	27 days	26 days
Spider-Man FFH	13,647	3,356	1,669	1,073	591	383	437
	57 days	56 days	55 days	54 days	53 days	52 days	51 days

 

And here we go...

John Wick

Last 7 Days (11-5)

181% of Glass (73.1M)

182% of Alita (52M using Fri-Sun, 67.9M using Thu-Sun)

 

Day 18-5 (minus 14-12)

14% of Captain Marvel (21.8M)

 

Day 39-5 (minus 21-19, 14-12)

15% of Captain Marvel (23.3M)

 

Yeah, I think it's best to look at just the Glass and Alita comps. I don't think it'll go that high, but it's clear that Wick 2's OW is the floor at this point. We'll be getting a bunch more comps tomorrow, so hopefully they bring in good results too.

 

Aladdin

Last 7 Days (18-12)

50% of Incredibles 2 (92.1M)

251% of Lego 2 (85.7M)

161% of Dragon 3 (88.9M)

154% of Dumbo (71M)

232% of Shazam (124M)

 

Day 23-12 (minus 21-19)

161% of Shazam (86M)

303% of Lego 2 (103.4M)

 

Day 25-12 (minus 21-19)

63% of Incredibles 2 (114.7M)

193% of Dragon 3 (106.4M)

291% of Detective Pikachu (168.7M) (I also excluded 14-12)

 

Cumulative (minus 21-19)

37% of Incredibles 2 (67.4M)

155% of Dragon 3 (85.5M)

113% of Detective Pikachu (65.8M) (I also excluded 14-12)

 

I mentioned this before, and while yeah, maybe Aladdin's more pre-sales driven, and other factors could come in and hurt it...almost all these comps are above tracking and almost all of them seem like a solid opening. Hopefully it holds strong through this week.

 

Godzilla

Days 25-19

37% of Captain Marvel (56.5M)

 

For the first couple days, this is a very strong start.

 

Spider-Man

Days 57-51

274% of Captain Marvel (420.2M)

 

First 7 Days

94% of Captain Marvel (144.7M)

 

Former is too extreme, latter seems slightly low for the 6-Day. Probably gonna take a break from giving you guys updates on this

Edited May 13, 2019 by CoolEric258

[Mulder]

Dark Phoenix couldn't even wait until John Wick came out.... Guess I'll be tracking four movies at once.

[Porthos]

Speaking of Dark P, it actually did manage to score that Opening Night Fan Event that Disney likes to do.  Didn't see it originally scheduled in Sactown, but two popped up tonight (including one on an IMAX screen).

 

Interesting. 

 

Well, of academic nature that is, as I already said in the Dark Phoenix thread that I'm giving this one a pass.  Be interesting to see just how well it actually does though.

[Olive]

Does Far From Home only have midnight showings?

[druv10]

1 hour ago, Olive said:

Does Far From Home only have midnight showings?

Yeah, it's only midnights.

[Minnale101]

Dark Phoenix having a very good day I think 

[lorddemaxus]

20 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Dark Phoenix having a very good day I think 

They announced presales today so that is expected. 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

They announced presales today so that is expected. 

Also #xmen day is trending. Some anniversary?

[Blaze Heatnix]

2 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Also #xmen day is trending. Some anniversary?

 

Yep, they're celebrating 19 years ( the original movie was released in 2000 ).

[el sid]

Actually I didn't plan to count today but after I looked at Pulse for a moment and it was so promising I had to :

So Pulse today 8:50-9:04 EST:

John Wick 3: 49/15 – e.g. Hellboy had 5/15, Cold Pursuit 1/10, Glass 16/15 all same day and time of the day, Hunter Killer had 12/15 on Wednesday.
A Dog's Journey: 1/15

Aladdin: 12/15
GKotM: 9/15
Dark Phoenix: 29/15

And Pulse 11:20-11:34 EST (half an hour too late, I really tried but was too busy before. So maybe subtract at a max 20 tickets for JW 3):

 

JW3: 120/15 – Hellboy 10/15, Glass 41/15, both same day and (almost) time of the day, Hunter Killer had 19/15 on Wednesday. Just great! This is almost on par with Us on Monday.

A Dog's Journey: 5/15
The Sun Is Also a Star: 0/15

Aladdin: 21/15
GKotM: 55/15 - nice
Dark Phoenix: 46/15

Edited May 13, 2019 by el sid

[keysersoze123]

John Wick 3 is breaking out for sure. Question is what is the ceiling for this movie. I am hoping for 60m.

Zilla should go up with tracking with better marketing push. Plus the reviews could matter for it for folks sitting on the fence. A movie with Kong level of reviews could open > 70m.

Dark Phoenix needs to be pushed as finale with this XMen team. That could help its OW. Otherwise its headed towards mediocre run ( 50/110).

Aladdin is definitely looking like underperforming. It’s going to go below tracking.

[Mulder]

14 hours ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-87 (+21), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular) Third Day

Aladdin-81 (+9), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-136 (+21), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final week

 

KoTM and John Wick both had really good days today, KoTM not slowing down much at all and John Wick picking up speed as it's final week continues. Hoping it can beat Pikachu within the next three days but we'll see. Aladdin had a decent day after all, finally selling some tickets but KoTM is still ahead of it. In total today Aladdin sold 9 tickets and both John Wick and Godzilla sold 21 tickets.

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-87, 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-84 (+3), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-139 (+3), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final Week

Dark Phoenix-9 (+9), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Dark Phoenix seems pretty muted so far at my theater as I expected. We'll see if it picks up later. Aladdin got a bit of a boost and John Wick's proceeding nicely if a bit slower then I'd expect from the final Monday, but I'll say more once I see how it ends today.

[Porthos]

Cinema West finally getting off its duff today in regards to KotM. 👍

 

(still missing at 2 theaters but at least it's starting to show up now)

[Galactic Specter]

20 hours ago, Mulder said:

I meeeean-

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dumbo_2019

Dumbo was too different, the animals didn't even talk.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Galactic Specter said:

Dumbo was too different, the animals didn't even talk.

In the original movie it was just the mouse and the crows and the crows are cut for uuuuh obvious reasons.

[Mulder]

Nvm my earlier report, Dark Phoenix somehow blew up at my theater in the last hour or so. Went from 9 tickets to 27 tickets (Though one of those is mine) which is...wtf. Went over Aladdin's entire first day of ticket sales as a result.

[Biggestgeekever]

John Wick 3 makes its debut on MT

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Dark Phoenix is having a pretty soft first day on Pulse from what I can see, not even over 2000 and it's already slowing down fast

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Biggestgeekever said:

John Wick 3 makes its debut on MT

 

(I was already in the middle of posting this, but might as well quote at the same time for compare/contrast)

 

Fandango Sales Past 16 Hours
Since: 2019-05-12 16:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	29.718%	9477	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	20.599%	6569	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
3	10.931%	3486	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
4	04.064%	1296	The Hustle (2019)
5	03.478%	1109	Dark Phoenix
6	03.283%	1047	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
7	03.177%	1013	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
8	02.963%	945	Long Shot
9	02.546%	812	The Intruder (2019)
10	02.396%	764	Poms
11	02.195%	700	Aladdin (2019)
12	01.606%	512	Godzilla King of the Monsters -
13	01.188%	379	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)

Edited May 13, 2019 by Porthos