The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Huh? Where are you getting this from. Patterns have barely changed.

 

You can look at his commenting pattern and figure out where he pulled that idea from...

[Molek]

7 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So are we suddenly looking at a preview number at or under $20 million? After showing patterns that would equate to $22-$24 million, has this week suddenly dropped that much?

People are just skeptical if it can keep up the pace to reach 22+ by Thur I think, it's still comping out to 22+ currently.

[Cap]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

ABC is doing a Lion King special tonight at 7pm CST. It’ll have interviews, BTS and an all new scene.

 

I’m curious if this will goose the presales even further.

They did the same for Mary Poppins. Does anyone have those numbers? That special aired on November 22, 2018.  So it would be the 22 and 23. We have old Pulse data for that?  Or the link to the spread sheet I can dig through? @TalismanRing @CoolEric258

 

ETA:

 

35 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So are we suddenly looking at a preview number at or under $20 million? After showing patterns that would equate to $22-$24 million, has this week suddenly dropped that much?

I think I am one of the most cautious voices on TLK in this thread, and Naaah.

 

For under 20M you’d need a perfect storm of:

 

1. (On Mobile So can’t make it, but imagine Buzz and Woody) Child’s Tickets. All the Child’s Tickets. 

 

2. Late shows remain thin / under sell for the rest of the week. 

 

3. Everyone abuses that Atom Deal and AMC Stubs. 

Edited July 16, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Menor the Destroyer]

Note:Based on DW data I lowered my multiplier of estimated Cinemark sales to estimated total sales to 8x from 9x, so that number has been adjusted

 

TLK Thursday:

Theaters:232 (+1)

Showings: 3906 (+287)

Tickets Sold: 102339 (+15445)

Tickets Available: 475051 (+21173)

Estimated ATP: 12.55

Estimated Sales: 1,284,585 (+191213)

Estimated Total Sales: 10.3 million (+1.5 million)

 

If TLK plays like CM the next days should be something like 1.5 million, 2.3 million, 4.6 million + late walkups of say 2 million so about 21 million. If it plays like TS4 then it will be more like 1.5 million, 3.6 million, 8.4 million + late walkups (again say 2 million) or 26 million. I think the 1st case is more likely given how much it's sold so far. Btw the CM and TS4 trends are drawn from Pulse.

Edited July 16, 2019 by Menor

[Eric S'ennui]

5 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

They did the same for Mary Poppins. Does anyone have those numbers? That special aired on November 22, 2018.  So it would be the 22 and 23. We have old Pulse data for that?  Or the link to the spread sheet I can dig through? @TalismanRing @CoolEric258

MPR didn't start selling tickets until a couple days after that TV special aired.

[Eric S'ennui]

36 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

You can look at his commenting pattern and figure out where he pulled that idea from...

Very odd fellow he is. The only movies he ever seems to watch or talk about are Disney movies, yet he lives in a constant fear of every Disney movie underperforming. Homeboy really out here worrying if Bob Iger can pay for his big yacht that holds all of his smaller yachts.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Lion King Friday:

Theaters: 232

Showings: 6547 (+756)

Tickets Sold: 121954 (+26615)

Tickets Available: 882221 (+69253)

Estimated ATP: 11.07

Estimated Sales: 1350042 (+286,636)

Estimated Nationwide Sales (note: multiplier adjusted down to 8 from 9): 10.8 million (+2.3 million)

 

Following CM's Pulse ratios: 2.6, 3.6, 4 for Friday presales around 21 million.

Following TS4's Pulse ratios: 2.6, 4.5, 6.8 for Friday presales around 25 million.

Edited July 16, 2019 by Menor

[FlashMaster659]

On 7/15/2019 at 10:21 AM, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 154/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 179/203

9:00 PM - 167/203

12:00 AM - 94/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 37/78

6:30 PM - 19/63

7:00 PM - 34/78

8:45 PM - 22/60

9:15 PM - 7/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 12/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 13/55

7:30 PM - 9/167

8:00 PM - 8/114

9:00 PM - 4/79

10:30 PM - 3/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 38/63

8:00 PM - 40/61

8:30 PM - 44/63

10:45 PM - 36/63

11:15 PM - 30/61

11:45 PM - 15/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 24/44

6:15 PM - 32/55

6:30 PM - 119/217

6:45 PM - 21/44

7:00 PM - 48/79

7:15 PM - 24/44

7:45 PM - 24/44

8:00 PM - 22/45

8:15 PM - 63/167

8:30 PM (1) - 19/45

8:30 PM (2) - 44/114

8:45 PM - 17/44

9:00 PM - 17/49

9:15 PM - 10/44

9:30 PM (1) - 8/55

9:30 PM (2) - 7/55

9:45 PM - 6/217

10:00 PM - 13/48

10:15 PM - 8/79

10:30 PM - 12/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 18/167

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

Total

 

1527(+125)/4089 (34.3%)

 

1.7177x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 three days before previews

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 155/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 182/203

9:00 PM - 171/203

12:00 AM - 102/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 37/78

6:30 PM - 21/63

7:00 PM - 35/78

8:45 PM - 27/60

9:15 PM - 9/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 14/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 13/55

7:30 PM - 9/167

8:00 PM - 8/114

9:00 PM - 4/79*

10:30 PM - 3/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 40/63

8:00 PM - 40/61

8:30 PM - 44/63

10:45 PM - 36/63

11:15 PM - 30/61

11:45 PM - 16/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 23/44

6:15 PM - 34/55

6:30 PM - 132/217

6:45 PM (1) - 20/44

6:45 PM (2) NEW - ?/?*

7:00 PM - 52/79

7:15 PM - 24/44

7:45 PM - 26/44

8:00 PM - 22/45

8:15 PM - 60/167

8:30 PM (1) - 21/45

8:30 PM (2) - 65/114

8:45 PM - 17/44

9:00 PM - 22/49

9:15 PM - 12/44

9:30 PM (1) - 8/55

9:30 PM (2) - 7/55

9:45 PM - 17/217

10:00 PM (1) - 15/48

10:00 PM (2) NEW - 0/44

10:15 PM - 8/79

10:30 PM - 14/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 18/167

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

Total

 

1619(+92)/4089 (39.6%)

 

1.5188x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 two days before previews

 

*9:00 PM RealD 3D became a glitched sell-out so I can't add anymore seats to that show's total until it's fixed. The new 6:45 PM 2D show is glitched as well so I have no idea how that one is doing.

 

Terrible hold from yesterday

Edited July 17, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Then you don't realize how people are moved by discounts vs full prices, especially in the non-subscriber base.  The easiest examples from this year were Wonder Park vs Missing Link vs UglyDolls...one gave DOM folks a significant discount, the other two did not.

 

If the movie isn't an actual horrific turn-off like 2019 Hellboy, nor a spectacular achievement like Titanic, discounts always help swell the possible audience.  How much is only the question...and that is usually based on what % the base already is and what % the "fence sitters" are...for Disney, the base tends to be high, but they must be worried it's not as high as they thought...thus, the significant discounts going out this week, the only ones for a Disney movie all year (and yes, I do check that:)...

 

Once they get fence sitters in with presales, their revenue is booked...so they do swell their eventual domestic...for a movie with no base, that swing is significant...for Disney, it is less so, but still there...

I'm not sure the discounts are because Disney is worried about TLK sales, they're probably just trying them out to see how it goes. Why would they be worried given the way it's been selling? I also remember a lot of people on here arguing that Dark Phoenix would be underpredicted by Fandango because of its Atom deal, and that didn't end up being the case, in fact it came in slightly below what Pulse numbers would have suggested. For a movie with such awareness as Lion King, I'd be surprised if these discounts made a big difference to the overall gross.

[Eric S'ennui]

https://deadline.com/2019/07/the-lion-king-worldwide-box-office-opening-july-record-1202646684/

 

Quote

There really aren’t any sober domestic projections on Disney’s The Lion King: Many see the Jon Favreau-directed remake heading for a record July opening, feasibly toppling 2011’s Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 ($169.1M).

 

Even though Sony’s Spider-Man: Far From Home exceeded tracking estimates with a $185M 6-day opening, some analysts’ still have shell shock over tracking’s track record this summer for over-projecting branded IP, only for such fare to under-deliver at the B.O.. We understand that a leading tracking service is seeing $180M stateside for The Lion King, while others believe the over/under is around Disney’s 2017 live action take on Beauty and the Beast which opened to $174.7M, which would still be a record July start at 4,500 theaters. Even if The Lion King comes in low at $140M, it doesn’t mean it’s the end of moviegoing as we know it, nor is the marketplace in a funk, nor would such a start be considered a failure for what we hear is a $260M-plus budget enhanced CGI pic.

 

By Sunday, global on The Lion King is bound to reach $450M+. Simba already opened to $54.2M debut last weekend in China and that country is expected to clock just over $100M by Sunday. For new markets, the film is lining up in the $160M-$170M range, with potential upside taking it higher (add in China, and that range is at $260M-$270M). In order to notch a global July opening record, Lion King would need to surpass Deathly Hallows 2‘s $483.2M.

 

A $450M start for The Lion King isn’t out of the realm of possibility when you consider that Sony’s 10-day global on Spider-Man: Far From Home, which also led with China first, racked up $580M over that time frame worldwide. Such a global opening would also be the best start ever for a Disney remake of one of its vault toons, beating Beauty and the Beast‘s $357M worldwide opening.

 

[FlashMaster659]

22 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX 2D

 

6:00 PM - 63/532

12:00 AM - 1/532

 

IMAX 3D

 

9:00 PM - 18/532

 

RPX 2D

 

6:40 PM - 1/744

 

RPX 3D

 

9:40 PM - 0/744

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 0/150

9:20 PM - 0/150

12:15 AM - 0/150

 

2D

 

6:20 PM - 14/411

6:45 PM - 1/211

7:00 PM - 11/404

7:20 PM - 2/331

7:40 PM (1) - 0/338

7:40 PM (2) - 0/133

8:00 PM - 0/196

8:15 PM - 0/154

8:30 PM - 0/123

8:45 PM - 5/157

9:15 PM - 0/138

9:30 PM - 0/411

9:45 PM - 0/211

10:00 PM - 0/404

10:20 PM - 0/331

10:40 PM - 0/338

10:45 PM - 0/133

11:00 PM - 0/196

11:10 PM - 0/154

11:20 PM - 0/155

11:30 PM - 0/123

11:45 PM - 0/157

12:10 AM - 0/138

 

Total

 

116(+36)/8881 (1.3%)

 

The Lion King - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX 2D

 

6:00 PM - 78/532

12:00 AM - 2/532

 

IMAX 3D

 

9:00 PM - 29/532

 

RPX 2D

 

6:40 PM - 8/744

 

RPX 3D

 

9:40 PM - 0/744

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 0/150

9:20 PM - 0/150

12:15 AM - 0/150

 

2D

 

6:20 PM - 21/411

6:45 PM - 5/211

7:00 PM - 17/404

7:20 PM - 2/331

7:40 PM (1) - 6/338

7:40 PM (2) - 0/133

8:00 PM - 0/196

8:15 PM - 0/154

8:30 PM - 0/123

8:45 PM - 5/157

9:15 PM - 0/138

9:30 PM - 6/411

9:45 PM - 0/211

10:00 PM - 0/404

10:20 PM - 0/331

10:40 PM - 0/338

10:45 PM - 0/133

11:00 PM - 0/196

11:10 PM - 0/154

11:20 PM - 0/155

11:30 PM - 0/123

11:45 PM - 0/157

12:10 AM - 0/138

 

Total

 

179(+63)/8881 (2.0%)

[UserHN]

38 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://deadline.com/2019/07/the-lion-king-worldwide-box-office-opening-july-record-1202646684/

 

 

$450M includes 10 days from China. Also, isn't that figure kinda low-ish for this? If this movie is supposed to gross $1.4B+, shouldn't it gross more than that Deadline prediction?

[keysersoze123]

Deadline’s OS projects are always way off. it should open way bigger than looking at country reports. I think 300m OS-C OW should be a good bet. its opening almost everyone(only Japan, Italy and Hong Kong are not opening this week).

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX 2D

 

6:00 PM - 78/532

12:00 AM - 2/532

 

IMAX 3D

 

9:00 PM - 29/532

 

RPX 2D

 

6:40 PM - 8/744

 

RPX 3D

 

9:40 PM - 0/744

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 0/150

9:20 PM - 0/150

12:15 AM - 0/150

 

2D

 

6:20 PM - 21/411

6:45 PM - 5/211

7:00 PM - 17/404

7:20 PM - 2/331

7:40 PM (1) - 6/338

7:40 PM (2) - 0/133

8:00 PM - 0/196

8:15 PM - 0/154

8:30 PM - 0/123

8:45 PM - 5/157

9:15 PM - 0/138

9:30 PM - 6/411

9:45 PM - 0/211

10:00 PM - 0/404

10:20 PM - 0/331

10:40 PM - 0/338

10:45 PM - 0/133

11:00 PM - 0/196

11:10 PM - 0/154

11:20 PM - 0/155

11:30 PM - 0/123

11:45 PM - 0/157

12:10 AM - 0/138

 

Total

 

179(+63)/8881 (2.0%)

That is horrible for sure.

[FlashMaster659]

22 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - AMC Victoria Gardens 12 (Thursday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 104/157

9:00 PM - 104/157

 

RealD 3D

 

6:00 PM - 7/231

9:00 PM - 0/231

 

2D

 

6:25 PM - 51/300

6:50 PM - 2/199

7:15 PM - 11/199

7:40 PM - 6/145

8:05 PM - 12/232

8:30 PM - 22/145

9:25 PM - 8/300

9:50 PM - 2/199

10:15 PM - 4/199

10:40 PM - 3/145

11:30 PM - 8/145

 

Total

 

344(+38)/2984 (11.5%)

 

The Lion King - AMC Victoria Gardens 12 (Thursday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 111/157

9:00 PM - 105/157

 

RealD 3D

 

6:00 PM - 7/231

9:00 PM - 0/231

 

2D

 

6:25 PM - 61/300

6:50 PM - 6/199

7:15 PM - 23/199

7:40 PM - 9/145

8:05 PM - 12/232

8:30 PM - 22/145

9:25 PM - 14/300

9:50 PM - 6/199

10:15 PM - 4/199

10:40 PM - 3/145

11:30 PM - 8/145

 

Total

 

391(+47)/2984 (13.1%)

[Cap]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://deadline.com/2019/07/the-lion-king-worldwide-box-office-opening-july-record-1202646684/

 

 

@Porthos @filmlover first bingo of the weekend. “Deadline under predicts by 20m”

Edited July 16, 2019 by captainwondyful

[FlashMaster659]

22 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - AMC Disney Springs 24 (Thursday)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 119/121

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 275/281

9:15 PM - 275/281

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 227/360

6:45 PM - 60/120

7:00 PM - 213/360

10:00 PM - 58/360

10:15 PM - 5/120

10:30 PM - 32/360

 

2D Dine-In

 

6:30 PM - 47/50

7:30 PM - 47/50

10:00 PM - 46/50

11:00 PM - 44/50

 

2D

 

6:15 PM - 133/158

7:15 PM (1) - 108/135

7:15 PM (2) - 109/137

7:45 PM (1) - 112/159

7:45 PM (2) - 94/133

8:15 PM - 410/532

9:45 PM - 110/158

10:45 PM - 82/135

10:50 PM - 83/137

11:15 PM (1) - 52/159

11:15 PM (2) - 28/133

11:30 PM - 47/532

 

Total

 

2816(+147)/5071 (55.5%)

 

The Lion King - AMC Disney Springs 24 (Thursday)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 119/121

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 276/281

9:15 PM - 275/281

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 243/360

6:45 PM - 72/120

7:00 PM - 226/360

10:00 PM - 73/360

10:15 PM - 6/120

10:30 PM - 35/360

 

2D Dine-In

 

6:30 PM - 48/50

7:30 PM - 48/50

10:00 PM - 46/50

11:00 PM - 45/50

 

2D

 

6:15 PM - 139/158

7:15 PM (1) - 109/135

7:15 PM (2) - 110/137

7:45 PM (1) - 122/159

7:45 PM (2) - 99/133

8:15 PM - 428/532

9:45 PM - 112/158

10:45 PM - 85/135

10:50 PM - 86/137

11:15 PM (1) - 61/159

11:15 PM (2) - 31/133

11:30 PM - 54/532

 

Total

 

2948(+132)/5071 (58.1%)

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://deadline.com/2019/07/the-lion-king-worldwide-box-office-opening-july-record-1202646684/

 

 

Quote

Even if The Lion King comes in low at $140M, it doesn’t mean it’s the end of moviegoing as we know it, nor is the marketplace in a funk, nor would such a start be considered a failure for what we hear is a $260M-plus budget enhanced CGI pic.

Man, I know they themselves comment about being "gun shy" but this is almost as ridiculous as those Far From Home 125m 6 day comments from Sony a while back.  

 

I understand covering your ass bases.  I'm one of the biggest covering your bases folks on this board.  But 140? Let's just say that I'd pity Water Bottle and the rest of the Admin team as they try to deal with all of their servers being on fire during the maelstrom of that WE thread.

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

Note:Based on DW data I lowered my multiplier of estimated Cinemark sales to estimated total sales to 8x from 9x, so that number has been adjusted

 

TLK Thursday:

Theaters:232 (+1)

Showings: 3906 (+287)

Tickets Sold: 102339 (+15445)

Tickets Available: 475051 (+21173)

Estimated ATP: 12.55

Estimated Sales: 1,284,585 (+191213)

Estimated Total Sales: 10.3 million (+1.5 million)

 

If TLK plays like CM the next days should be something like 1.5 million, 2.3 million, 4.6 million + late walkups of say 2 million so about 21 million. If it plays like TS4 then it will be more like 1.5 million, 3.6 million, 8.4 million + late walkups (again say 2 million) or 26 million. I think the 1st case is more likely given how much it's sold so far. Btw the CM and TS4 trends are drawn from Pulse.

For what it's worth, as of last night TLK had sold .8867x Total TS4 Tickets locally, which points to around 10.6m nationwide total which is broadly in line with this total here. 👍

[ThomasNicole]

Lol at the Deadline prediction

 

They really don’t want to be responsible for another TS4 situation, but that’s ridiculous hahah