The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ThomasNicole]

Audience Scores on RT for TLK:

 

Verified: 100% with an 4.94/5 average;

Total: 72% with 3.9/5 average.

 

Thank God now we have the verified metric to compare, looking promising.

[stealthyfrog]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Audience Scores on RT for TLK:

 

Verified: 100% with an 4.94/5 average;

Total: 72% with 3.9/5 average.

 

Thank God now we have the verified metric to compare, looking promising.

How many reviews so far? Difference between total and verified looks like some review bombing going on.

[UserHN]

5 minutes ago, stealthyfrog said:

How many reviews so far? Difference between total and verified looks like some review bombing going on.

Too early. 93% Verified but only 14 audiences so far..

[Eric is Quiet]

Finally got it all organized and ready...

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-0 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	138	7,607	23,715	32.08%

 

Total Showings Added: 19

Total Seats Added: 3246

Total Seats Sold: 1957

 

Coulda been cool to see it cross 2000, but it's whatever. Still really strong results.

[Porthos]

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:30pm - 5:45pm]

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL showings with six or less seats left)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7	289	17020	27997	10977	39.21%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since 1pm:          7

Total Showings Added Since 1pm:        1

Total Seats Added Since 1pm:           166

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1800 

 

Unadjusted Comps

3.5455x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu at stop of tracking.      [20.2m]

2.8146x as many tickets sold as Aladdin at stop of tracking.                     [19.7m]

3.8141x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters at stop of tracking. [24.0m]

1.6369x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 at stop of tracking.                [19.6m]

 

Detailed Final Comps:

 

Pika Pika: [3:30pm  - 4pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	7172	10268	3096	30.15%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:              447

 

Aladdin: [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	9953	13853	3900	28.15%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             809

 

King of the Monsters: [3:20pm - 4:00pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	129	12885	15763	2878	18.26%

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day:        492

 

Toy Story 4 [4:30pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	153	11031	17237	6206	36.00%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1228

 

Adjusted Comps

1.5806x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.  [24m]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Detailed Final Comps (adj):

 

JW2: [5:30pm - 6:15pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	147	7487	13715	6228	45.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:           1275

 

TLK (JW)*: [4:30pm - 5:45pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7	289	12848	22692	9844	43.38%

* TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

 

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:      1593

 

========

 

For the record, 6 showings for a total of 23 tickets sold were manually adjusted for showings with six seats or fewer left.  Before the adjustment, the count was as follows:

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	289	17043	27997	10954	39.13%

 

 

Other comps in a few minutes.

Edited July 19, 2019 by Porthos

[UserHN]

Did you all watch the Cats trailer? Nightmare. After watching that, I was so thankful that TLK did not go that route.

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:30pm - 5:45pm]

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL showings with six or less seats left)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7	289	17020	27997	10977	39.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1800 

 

For some other, perhaps less than ideal comps...

 

For their last half day before stop of tracking:

CM sold   1520 tickets 

EG sold    1407 tickets 

Solo sold   486 tickets (versus an adj 1593 tickets sold).

DP2 sold  1262 tickets (versus an adj 1593 tickets sold).

IW sold      878 tickets (versus an adj 1593 tickets sold).

 

And for what they may or may not be worth:

 

1.0402x Captain Marvel   (21.53m)

0.4118x Endgame            (24.71m)

1.7005x Solo  (adj)           (23.98m)

1.2104x Deadpool 2 (adj) (22.51m)

0.7478x Infinity War (adj) (29.16m) (lol - disregard; theaters were practically maxed out locally)

 

Check as of two days ago:

On 7/17/2019 at 1:09 AM, Porthos said:

And now for less than ideal comps for TLK, two days out:

 

CM sold   802 tickets two days out.

EG sold  1182 tickets two days out.

Solo sold 236 tickets two days out (versus an adj 791 tickets sold).

DP2 sold 729 tickets two days out (versus an adj 791 tickets sold).

IW sold    691 tickets two days out (versus an adj 791 tickets sold).

 

And for what they (probably aren't) worth:

 

0.9874x Captain Marvel   (20.44m)

0.3076x Endgame            (18.46m)

1.3730x Solo  (adj)           (19.36m)

1.2132x Deadpool 2 (adj) (22.57m)

0.5724x Infinity War (adj) (22.32m)

 

Thoughts on all of this in a bit (gonna take me a while to type it up).

[TalismanRing]

Midsommer got annihilated .  Though int he BOM predict article it's listed as Midsommar (1,857 theaters)  So which one is it?

 

July 19
Updated Thursday afternoons
 

<< Prev. Week < Last Year	View Index	Next Year > Next Week >>
Rank LW Title Distributor Theater Count Change % Change Est. Screens Change Est. Shows Change Week # > NEW RELEASES 1 - The Lion King (2019) Buena Vista 4,725 - - - - - - 1 38 - David Crosby: Remember My Name Sony Classics 4 - - - - - - 1 > EXPANDING 15 53 The Art of Self-Defense Bleecker Street 550 +543 +7,757.1% - - - - 2 19 24 Wild Rose Neon 195 +34 +21.1% - - - - 5 24 46 Apollo 11 Neon 107 +92 +613.3% - - - - 21 25 37 Maiden Sony Classics 84 +16 +23.5% - - - - 4 31 43 Marianne & Leonard: Words of Love Roadside Attractions 55 +25 +83.3% - - - - 3 33 67 The Farewell A24 35 +31 +775.0% - - - - 2 35 86 Sword of Trust IFC 12 +10 +500.0% - - - - 2 39 89 Christ Stopped at Eboli (re-release) Rialto 2 +1 +100.0% - - - - 16 > NO CHANGE 4 4 Crawl Paramount 3,170 - - - - - - 2 5 5 Stuber Fox 3,050 - - - - - - 2 > DECLINING 2 1 Spider-Man: Far from Home Sony / Columbia 4,415 -219 -4.7% - - - - 3 3 2 Toy Story 4 Buena Vista 3,750 -460 -10.9% - - - - 5 6 6 Yesterday Universal 2,661 -94 -3.4% - - - - 4 7 8 Aladdin (2019) Buena Vista 2,105 -452 -17.7% - - - - 9 8 3 Annabelle Comes Home Warner Bros. (New Line) 1,981 -1,228 -38.3% - - - - 4 9 9 The Secret Life of Pets 2 Universal 1,375 -945 -40.7% - - - - 7 10 7 Midsommar A24 1,105 -1,602 -59.2% - - - - 3 11 11 Avengers: Endgame Buena Vista 985 -458 -31.7% - - - - 13 12 12 Rocketman Paramount 720 -612 -45.9% - - - - 8 13 13 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum Lionsgate/Summit 584 -561 -49.0% - - - - 10 14 10 Men in Black International Sony / Columbia 554 -1,058 -65.6% - - - - 6 16 18 Shaft (2019) Warner Bros. (New Line) 228 -75 -24.8% - - - - 6 17 15 Godzilla: King of the Monsters Warner Bros. 218 -216 -49.8% - - - - 8 18 14 Child's Play (2019) United Artists Releasing 207 -600 -74.3% - - - - 5 20 22 Dark Phoenix Fox 185 -15 -7.5% - - - - 7 21 20 Pokemon Detective Pikachu Warner Bros. 165 -42 -20.3% - - - - 11 22 19 The Last Black Man in San Francisco A24 149 -58 -28.0% - - - - 7 23 21 Bethany Hamilton: Unstoppable Entertainment Studios 138 -67 -32.7% - - - - 2 26 25 Booksmart United Artists Releasing 83 -77 -48.1% - - - - 9 27 32 Anna (2019) Lionsgate/Summit 73 -19 -20.7% - - - - 5 28 30 Biggest Little Farm Neon 69 -30 -30.3% - - - - 11 29 33 Dumbo (2019) Buena Vista 65 -27 -29.3% - - - - 17 30 36 Shazam! Warner Bros. (New Line) 63 -20 -24.1% - - - - 16 32 31 The Other Side of Heaven 2: Fire of Faith ArtAffects 45 -52 -53.6% - - - - 4 34 42 The Fall of the American Empire Entertainment One 16 -19 -54.3% - - - - 29 36 44 The Souvenir A24 11 -16 -59.3% - - - - 10 37 47 Amazing Grace (2019) Neon 10 -4 -28.6% - - - - 33 40 60 Last Year at Marienbad (2019 re-release) Janus Films 2 -3 -60.0% - - - - 10

[XXR & Friends]

Just got out of my showing. Theater clapped when it was over. It definitely feels like this is going to hold audiences

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Thank you to all of you for all the tracking information. This should be very interesting, as TLK is the first blockbuster that BOT members tracked all their own. Good old fashioned hard work usually pays off. No Pulse and no MT for guidance. I’m excited for you guys. 

[Porthos]

Alright, some quick thoughts.

 

It is possible Sacramento is underperforming slightly and/or it's also possible that both Aladdin and TS4 over-performed, thus dragging down the ratio (Pika PIka has its own set of problems being a 4pm start with previews).

 

And I did see even more of an uptick of sales in the 9pm window.  But gotta go where the data leads me, so locally at least Sacramento is suggesting a flat 20m in previews.  Let's say an error bar of +/- .4m to that.  I can see as high as 20.5m.  Also can see as low as 19.5m.  

 

Problem for me is, there are a LOT of seats left in the 9pm and later window.  And while another film with a shit-ton of shows locally (CM) suggests 21.5m, I have to think more kids tickets will be purchased for TLK than CM.

 

Anywho, if it's a lot higher than 20.5, say closer to the JW:FK comp of 24m, then it's very probable that far fewer children tickets were purchased for TLK than for Pika Pika, Aladdin, or TS4.  Why that would be beats me though.  

 

Find out soon enough.

[UserHN]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Just got out of my showing. Theater clapped when it was over. It definitely feels like this is going to hold audiences

92% Verified audience score. Seems like a crowd-pleasing film.

[XXR & Friends]

Avengers: Endgame -- 2nd Friday -- Status as of Thursday, May 2 @ 8pm CST

TOTALS: 51 show times, 1233 tickets sold out of 5453 available (22.61%)

 

 

The Lion King -- 1st Friday -- Status as of Thursday, July 18 @ 830pm CST

TOTALS: 34 show times, 1722 tickets sold out of 4208 available 

 

 

Notes: Endgame's 2nd Friday was $40.7 million nationally. My theater is running about 40% ahead of that right now. I fully expect TLK to be more walkup heavy tomorrow than Endgame's 2nd Friday was. If I had to make a prediction right now, I'd put my money on true Friday being between $57m - $62m. 

 

Edited July 19, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Porthos]

37 minutes ago, UserHN said:

92% Verified audience score. Seems like a crowd-pleasing film.

Dropped to 91 percent now.  Still only 462 reviews in though.  Also preview night so it might be the the most pre-disposed to liking it.

 

FWIW, which prob isn't much, Aladdin's verified is 94.

 

(gonna discount the All Audience one this time around as there is the possibility of review bombing for TLK)

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

I fully expect TLK to be more walkout heavy tomorrow than Endgame's 2nd Friday was.

Wow, for TLK's sake I sure hope not. 

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Wow, for TLK's sake I sure hope not. 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

FINAL UPDATE FOR THE LION KING

 

CINEPLEX SCOTIABANK MONTREAL

 

THE LION KING - THURSDAY JULY 18 2019

Ultra AvX 3D

6:30pm - 251/378 (+79)

9:30pm - 252/378 (+133)

Regular 3D

7:00pm - 186/347 (+91)

7:30pm Non Reserved 

10:00pm - 139/347 (+114)

10:30pm Non Reserved 

Regular

5:00pm - Fan Event - Non Reserved

6:00pm - 305/385 (+117)

8:00pm - Non Reserved

9:00pm - 318/385 (+147)

11:00pm - Non Reserved

11:45pm - 34/385 (+28)

 

Comps 

6.37x Aladdin 

2.86x Toy Story 4

 

Huuuuge final day sales. The comps I have would put previews way too high. I'll stick with low 20m range but I think it might go higher. 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

CINEPLEX FORUM (MONTREAL)

 

THE LION KING - THURSDAY JULY 18 2019

IMAX

6:30 - 175/306 (+51)

IMAX 3D

9:25 - 174/306 (+80)

 

Looks good here too but don't have comps for this cinema yet.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Inceptionzq]

https://deadline.com/2019/07/the-lion-king-weekend-box-office-july-records-1202648944/

 

“We’re hearing from non-Disney sources that Jon Favreau’s The Lion King reboot is doing some smashing business tonight with an estimated $22M-$25M off showtimes that largely started at 6PM (there were 5pm select fan screenings). Again with these estimates, sometimes they can fall outside the range we’re hearing from sources, but overall, it’s a great start.“

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, Inceptionzq said:

https://deadline.com/2019/07/the-lion-king-weekend-box-office-july-records-1202648944/

 

“We’re hearing from non-Disney sources that Jon Favreau’s The Lion King reboot is doing some smashing business tonight with an estimated $22M-$25M off showtimes that largely started at 6PM (there were 5pm select fan screenings). Again with these estimates, sometimes they can fall outside the range we’re hearing from sources, but overall, it’s a great start.“

 

That would be an amazing start, especially if it comes in towards the higher end of the range. Either way, $200m is firmly in sites and judging from my own anecdotal WOM (friends) it’s going to do just fine with the GA.

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

God sent!!!!

 

okau. So just ls13 and cm for me. HUGE RELIEF!!

I took some screenshots and updated preview a bit. Also some of the dolby shows have gone down a bit. i dont know if A-List customers can cancel bookings. I could see final shows add few more with walk ins. It has done great with walk ins.

 

Edit: holy crap even 1150PM show added 11 more folks by showtime!!! So its playing way wider than families.

 

Spoiler

AMC Empire 25

Dolby: 205/225 (6PM), 216/225 (9PM), 152/225 (12AM)
Imax - 261/303 (10PM)
3D: 204/309 (A14 630PM), 124/309 (A9 7PM), 73/262 (A17 730PM),67/158 (A6 8PM), 80/309 (A14 930PM), 21/309 (A9 10PM), 31/262 (A17 1030PM), 22/158 (A6 11PM), 25/126(A3 1130PM)

2D: 214/377(A13 6PM), 61/99(A16 610PM), 71/99(A22 620PM), 57/99(A24 640PM), 51/121(A15 650PM), 77/146(A7 710PM), 69/145(A25 720PM)  109/144(A20 740PM),44/142(A19 750PM),  71/134(A5 810PM), 32/126(A3 820PM), 56/262(A12 830PM), 16/122(A10 840PM), 31/111(A21 850PM), 43/99(A16 910PM), 16/377(A13 915PM),28/99(A22 920PM), 23/99(A24 940PM), 12/121(A15 950PM), 33/146(A7 1010PM), 18/145 (A25 1020PM), 37/144(A20 1040PM), 21/142(A19 1050PM), 27/134 (A5 1110PM),  24/262(A12 1120PM), 10/122 (A10 1140PM), 29/121(A21 1150PM)

 

Edited July 19, 2019 by keysersoze123