The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Ocho]

2 hours ago, UserHN said:

Did you all watch the Cats trailer? Nightmare. After watching that, I was so thankful that TLK did not go that route.

Someone is losing a lot of $$$$$.....

[Menor the Destroyer]

Based on Cinemark TLK Friday presales could be in the 24 million range. 133% of FFH OD which means it could even be 26 million in the best case.

[XXR vs XXR]

21 minutes ago, Menor said:

Based on Cinemark TLK Friday presales could be in the 24 million range. 133% of FFH OD which means it could even be 26 million in the best case.

$70m+ Friday? I can see it but it would still astound me.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

$70m+ Friday? I can see it but it would still astound me.

With CM presale heaviness it would be 54, so 60+ should at least be happening.

[XXR vs XXR]

10 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

The Lion King -- 1st Friday -- Status as of Thursday, July 18 @ 830pm CST

TOTALS: 34 show times, 1722 tickets sold out of 4208 available 

 

Up to 1935 tickets sold. First show time is in 2 hours.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Lion King Friday (final):

Showings: 7948 (+60 from yesterday)

Theaters: 232

Tickets Sold: 270962 (+78297!!!!)(130% of FFH OD presales)

Tickets Available: 991275

Estimated ATP: 10.59

Estimated Sales: 2868223 (+782173)(133% of FFH OD presales)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 24 million (+7 million) 

And now I will be on a trip for 2 weeks and won't have my laptop so good luck to all of you tracking  OUATIH and H&S

[Permanent Magnet]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

Based on Cinemark TLK Friday presales could be in the 24 million range. 133% of FFH OD which means it could even be 26 million in the best case.

damn it is looking to break TLJ OW with these previews

 

curious to see the legs.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Permanent Magnet said:

damn it is looking to break TLJ OW with these previews

 

curious to see the legs.

Not previews. These are presales for true Friday. Although I am now pretty proud of this post as it seems I got the number right on the dot.

[FlashMaster659]

On 7/15/2019 at 9:44 AM, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Friday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

9:00 AM - 66/203

12:00 PM - 48/203

3:00 PM - 84/203

6:00 PM - 160/203

9:00 PM - 171/203

12:00 AM - 30/203

 

RealD 3D

 

10:00 AM - 2/167

1:15 PM - 4/167

4:30 PM - 18/167

7:45 PM - 32/167

11:00 PM - 2/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

10:15 AM - 35/78

1:30 PM - 28/78

4:45 PM - 45/78

8:00 PM - 55/78

11:15 PM - 25/78

 

2D

 

8:00 AM - ?/217*

8:30 AM - ?/114*

9:30 AM - 16/167

11:00 AM - 61/217

11:45 AM - 38/114

12:30 PM - 10/167

2:00 PM - 0/217

3:15 PM - 9/114

3:45 PM - 0/167

5:15 PM - 33/217

6:15 PM - 74/114

7:00 PM - 116/167

8:30 PM - 127/217

9:30 PM - 34/114

10:15 PM - 23/167

11:30 PM - 8/217

 

Total

 

1354(+262)/5150 (26.3%)

 

1.9017x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 four days before opening day

 

*Glitched sell-outs once again. Although telling from the pattern that the total-seats-in-the-theater numbers form, it's easy to assume the max capacity of those shows.

 

The Lion King - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Friday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

9:00 AM - 125/203

12:00 PM - 110/203

3:00 PM - 138/203

6:00 PM - 170/203

9:00 PM - 173/203

12:00 AM - 57/203

 

3D Dine-In (NEW)

 

11:15 AM NEW - 25/60

9:15 PM NEW - 41/60

 

RealD 3D

 

10:00 AM - 22/167

1:15 PM - 15/167

4:30 PM - 41/167

7:45 PM - 108/167

11:00 PM - 4/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

10:15 AM - 51/78

12:45 PM NEW - 52/78

1:30 PM - 54/78

4:00 PM NEW - 53/78

4:45 PM - 53/78

7:15 PM NEW - 62/78

8:00 PM - 66/78

10:30 PM NEW  - 50/78

11:15 PM - 42/78

 

2D Hindi (NEW)

 

10:30 AM NEW - 6/79

1:45 PM NEW - 2/79

 

2D

 

8:00 AM - ?/217*

8:30 AM - 27/114

8:45 AM NEW - 14/44

9:15 AM NEW - 22/44

9:30 AM - 87/167

11:00 AM - 156/217

11:30 AM NEW - 27/44

11:45 AM - 79/114

12:30 PM - 102/167

2:00 PM - 110/217

3:15 PM - 49/114

3:45 PM - 50/167

5:15 PM - 146/217

6:15 PM - 84/114

7:00 PM - 139/167

8:15 PM NEW - 57/79

8:30 PM - 168/217

9:30 PM - 79/114

10:15 PM - 109/167

11:30 PM - 41/217

 

Total

 

3066(+1712)/5951(+801) (51.5%)

 

*Unfortunately missed this show.

[Porthos]

So I try to comp TS4 against JW2 and even after ticking it down a bit, it's wildly off and nearly matches Aladdin and Detective Pikachu perfectly.

 

So then I decide to comp TLK off of all three of Aladdin, Detective Pikachu, and TS4 (which almost all sing the same song) and I'm off by three million.  But JW2 was still a bad comp as well, being off by 1m.

 

Turns out the answer all along (or a least the closest) was...

 

*checks*

 

DEADPOOL 2?!?!?  (22.5 vs 23) and/or VENOM!!!! (22.6m)

 

...

 

Edited July 19, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

VEMON!!!! 

 

[Eric Duncan]

Regardless of the most accurate comp, @Porthos let me just say thank you for taking time to track all of this data in the first place, especially since we can use this data to track the likes of Frozen and Mulan in the future. I'm also happy that you can finally enjoy a couple weeks worth of rest, since IT Chapter Two probably won't have tickets up until a couple more weeks from now.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

ME BEING PISSED OFF IN THE MORNING AND THROWING A STROMP IS WHAT THAT IS!!!!

 

(also not fully awake and forgetting to proofread - to-mah-toe/toe-may-to really)

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

VENOM!!!! (22.6m)

 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Regardless of the most accurate comp, @Porthos let me just say thank you for taking time to track all of this data in the first place, especially since we can use this data to track the likes of Frozen and Mulan in the future. I'm also happy that you can finally enjoy a couple weeks worth of rest, since IT Chapter Two probably won't have tickets up until a couple more weeks from now.

Thanks for the kind words.  I was play acting at being pissed off though. 

 

Mostly. 

 

===

 

The 'fun' thing with It 2 is that I have exactly zero good comps for it.  No clue whatsoever what to comp against it.  But if I don't comp it against something people will whine pester me rightly ask if something is good or not and I really should have something  by way of an answer.  No idea what to put in though.

[Legion Again]

You know what they say Porthos:   

 

When life gives you Vemons, make Vemonade

[JB33]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Thanks for the kind words.  I was play acting at being pissed off though. 

 

Mostly. 

 

===

 

The 'fun' thing with It 2 is that I have exactly zero good comps for it.  No clue whatsoever what to comp against it.  But if I don't comp it against something people will whine pester me rightly ask if something is good or not and I really should have something  by way of an answer.  No idea what to put in though.

Figure it out!!!

 

Kidding of course. Thanks for all the work you put in Porthos. As for IT 2, I suppose it'll just be another mystery box. I can see how it would be very difficult to comp, as we're only now entering territory where big-ish movies are slated for the post-Labor Day weekend. The natural comp would be IT, but as we've all discussed presale activity has increased exponentially in just the 2 years since.

[Eric Duncan]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Thanks for the kind words.  I was play acting at being pissed off though. 

 

Mostly. 

 

===

 

The 'fun' thing with It 2 is that I have exactly zero good comps for it.  No clue whatsoever what to comp against it.  But if I don't comp it against something people will whine pester me rightly ask if something is good or not and I really should have something  by way of an answer.  No idea what to put in though.

Deadpool 2 seems like one that would work okay. R rated tentpole sequels to breakout hits and everything (and yes, I know that superhero and horror are different beasts). I guess King of the Monsters and Venom can work too.

[Porthos]

Just now, JB33 said:

Figure it out!!!

 

Kidding of course. Thanks for all the work you put in Porthos. As for IT 2, I suppose it'll just be another mystery box. I can see how it would be very difficult to comp, as we're only now entering territory where big-ish movies are slated for the post-Labor Day weekend. The natural comp would be IT, but as we've all discussed presale activity has increased exponentially in just the 2 years since.

It's more (absolutely no pun intended) that I don't have any decent comps.   If I had tracked Halloween last year, I might have had something acceptable (as a compare/contrast).  But as it is, I don't think I really have much in my personal database.

 

I reckon there will be a bit of an initial rush from the die-hard horror aficionados, as well as the well-received sequel factor.  But for the exact pattern?  Especially after the initial rush and the week of release?  None clue whatsoever.

[XXR vs XXR]

If I had just gone all in on my theater I would have been spot on against TS4 (1570/822 x 12 = 22.92)

 

Oh well. Let’s see how tonight does.