The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Took a look around me - the 7:45 is pretty much sold out in large auditorium and it is selling decent enough in the other screenings as well. That's great for this type of movie around here. I don't have time to count or anything but just visually it looks to be in the same place as John Wick here if not better - though I expect it to do worse in Middle America than "coastal elite" counties like mine compared to JW3.

 

I had 25-40 as my range going into the week because buzz was a bit quiet but it seems to have stepped up media wise and with these ticket sales I can see 35-50 happening instead.

Well it's not doing so hot in Atlanta.

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Well it's not doing so hot in Atlanta.

Wait never mind, I was looking at the 5:55 show. The 7:45 show is doing pretty nice.

[Alli]

Quote

our current expectation is a debut anywhere from $32-35 million and we're going to forecast on the high end of that range

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4531

[Ezen Baklattan]

I'm gonna stick with a $4.5m prediction for today and low 40s for the three day weekend.

[cannastop]

So what's the strategy behind not giving Once Upon a Time in Hollywood many screens?

[narniadis]

9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

So what's the strategy behind not giving Once Upon a Time in Hollywood many screens?

Not a sequel

R Rated

Hollywood styled which typically are not huge openers. 

Theater decisions ?

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

OUATIH Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

 

AMC Westminster Promenade 24: 

2D: 

4 PM – 51/158(+9)

4:30 PM – 24/94(+2)

7:45 PM – 118/158(+12)

8:15 PM – 55/94(+7)

11:20 PM – 11/158

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

2D: 

4 PM – 22/159(+8)

5 PM – 38/159(+5)

6:15 PM – 49/85(+8)

7:45 PM – 78/159(+33)

8:45 PM – 36/159(+17)

9:45 PM – 16/85

Total from 8 theaters (35 showings): 930(+219)/4090(+45) (22.7%)

TLK comp jumps up to 4.2M.

 

OUATIH Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

2D:

4 PM – 83/158(+32)

4:30 PM – 39/94(+15)

7:45 PM – 128/158(+10)

8:15 PM – 71/94(+16)

11:20 PM – 21/158(+10)

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

2D:

4 PM – 68/159(+46)

5 PM – 67/159(+29)

6:15 PM – 57/85(+8)

7:45 PM – 111/159(+33)

8:45 PM – 76/159(+40)

9:45 PM – 29/85(+13)

Total from 8 theaters (35 showings): 1695(+765)/4090 (41.4%)

Quite the jump, almost half of all tickets were sold in the past 24 hours. TLK comp now suggests 5.14M. Seems to be within range of what everyone else is saying with their comps. So, what the heck, maybe TLK was somehow a good comp. Let’s go with that.

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Hollywood styled which typically are not huge openers. 

What do you mean "Hollywood styled"? Like La La Land?

[Porthos]

Quote

Rank	LW	Title	Distributor	Theater Count	Change	% Change	Est. Screens	Change	Est. Shows	Change	Week #
> NEW RELEASES
3	-	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood	Sony / Columbia	3,659	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
34	42	The Fighting Preacher	Purdie Distribution	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
36	-	Honeyland	Neon	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
38	-	Skin	A24	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
13	31	Booksmart	United Artists Releasing	555	+472	+568.7%	-	-	-	-	10
17	17	Godzilla: King of the Monsters	Warner Bros.	238	+20	+9.2%	-	-	-	-	9
22	39	The Farewell	A24	135	+100	+285.7%	-	-	-	-	3
26	30	Maiden	Sony Classics	113	+29	+34.5%	-	-	-	-	5
27	36	Marianne & Leonard: Words of Love	Roadside Attractions	83	+28	+50.9%	-	-	-	-	4
32	46	Sword of Trust	IFC	41	+29	+241.7%	-	-	-	-	3
35	61	David Crosby: Remember My Name	Sony Classics	11	+7	+175.0%	-	-	-	-	2
> NO CHANGE
1	1	The Lion King (2019)	Buena Vista	4,725	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
> DECLINING
2	2	Spider-Man: Far from Home	Sony / Columbia	3,851	-564	-12.8%	-	-	-	-	4
4	3	Toy Story 4	Buena Vista	3,610	-140	-3.7%	-	-	-	-	6
5	4	Crawl	Paramount	2,720	-450	-14.2%	-	-	-	-	3
6	6	Yesterday	Universal	2,542	-120	-4.5%	-	-	-	-	5
7	5	Stuber	Fox	2,150	-900	-29.5%	-	-	-	-	3
8	7	Aladdin (2019)	Buena Vista	1,798	-307	-14.6%	-	-	-	-	10
9	8	Annabelle Comes Home	Warner Bros. (New Line)	1,287	-694	-35.0%	-	-	-	-	5
10	9	The Secret Life of Pets 2	Universal	1,000	-380	-27.5%	-	-	-	-	8
11	10	Midsommar	A24	626	-479	-43.3%	-	-	-	-	4
12	11	Avengers: Endgame	Buena Vista	580	-405	-41.1%	-	-	-	-	14
14	12	Rocketman	Paramount	516	-204	-28.3%	-	-	-	-	9
15	13	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum	Lionsgate/Summit	426	-158	-27.1%	-	-	-	-	11
16	14	Men in Black International	Sony / Columbia	343	-211	-38.1%	-	-	-	-	7
18	22	Pokemon Detective Pikachu	Warner Bros.	155	-10	-6.1%	-	-	-	-	12
19	16	Shaft (2019)	Warner Bros. (New Line)	153	-75	-32.9%	-	-	-	-	7
20	21	Dark Phoenix	Fox	145	-40	-21.6%	-	-	-	-	8
21	19	Wild Rose	Neon	144	-51	-26.2%	-	-	-	-	6
23	25	Pavarotti	CBS Films	135	-8	-5.6%	-	-	-	-	8
24	18	Child's Play (2019)	United Artists Releasing	125	-82	-39.6%	-	-	-	-	6
25	23	The Last Black Man in San Francisco	A24	114	-35	-23.5%	-	-	-	-	8
28	26	Bethany Hamilton: Unstoppable	Entertainment Studios	63	-75	-54.3%	-	-	-	-	3
29	33	Biggest Little Farm	Neon	61	-8	-11.6%	-	-	-	-	12
30	34	Dumbo (2019)	Buena Vista	45	-20	-30.8%	-	-	-	-	18
31	32	Anna (2019)	Lionsgate/Summit	44	-29	-39.7%	-	-	-	-	6
33	38	The Other Side of Heaven 2: Fire of Faith	ArtAffects	33	-12	-26.7%	-	-	-	-	5
37	68	Last Year at Marienbad (2019 re-release)	Janus Films	2	-1	-33.3%	-	-	-	-	11

 

 

Edited July 25, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Quote

ank	LW	Title	Distributor	Theater Count	Change	% Change	Est. Screens	Change	Est. Shows	Change	Week #
> NEW RELEASES
3	-	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood	Sony / Columbia	3,659	-	-	-	-	-	-	1

 

 

FWIW, Wick 3 opened at a similar 3850.

[Brainbug]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Still missing a couple of studios, including Lionsgate.

 

Are we really missing Lionsgate though?

 

Like, generally?

 

Spoiler

Jk, i like Lionsgate.

 

[narniadis]

51 minutes ago, cannastop said:

What do you mean "Hollywood styled"? Like La La Land?

I would. classify LLL as musical more than Hollywood and it made more than norm for both "groupings" but generally movies revolving around hollywood history / movie making etc do not become hits. Obviously this film is of a different variety but its still part of it, literally in the title. 

Also, my post was many sarcasm with the exception of the theater choice line. My bad for it not coming through.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

OUaTiH kinda blew up in Sacto on the half day.

 

Forgot about checking it so I did my half-day sample about 30 to 45 minutes later than I did for the following films, so depress the comp a little.  But since last night OUaTiH sold 663 tickets region wide and now stands at 2426/7552 sold (32.12%) with 92 showings region wide.

 

That's 10 more showings than John Wick 3 ended up with, but it's starting earlier and has no PLF dollars, so not exactly the same.

 

Either way:

 

.9158x Pika Pika at approx mid day of premiere (5.4m)

.9727x Wick 3 at approx mid day of premiere (5.5m)

.7849x Aladdin at approx mid day of premiere (5.5m)

Decided to do a final check after all.

 

2987/7552 sold (+561 since 1pm-ish)

 

0.9648x Pika Pika at stop of tracking.      (5.5m)

1.0181x Wick 3 at 4pm of release night.  (5.8m)

0.8400x Aladdin at 4pm of release night. (5.9m)

 

And since along with Pika Pika, it's the only 4pm-er I have, a lol-comp with KotM:

1.0379x KotM at stop of tracking.            (6.5m)

 

Looking all of that over, and taking away 3D from Pika Pika/Aladdin but adding a higher ATP for many more adults and talking away PLF from Wick 3, thinking 5.5m +/- .2m in previews.  

 

So a very nice amount of tickets in three hours.  4pm shows are filling up nicely.  Still plenty of room 9pm and beyond.

 

Always hate doing 4pm previews since I have so few of them, but that does seem to be the range looking at a lot of other tracks.  Maybe as low as 5m if we're over-performing here in Sacto.

Edited July 25, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Are we really missing Lionsgate though?

 

Like, generally?

 

  Hide contents

Jk, i like Lionsgate.

 

Didn't have Wick 3's theater count at the time, so, yeah.  Still kinda important.  Got hit hard last week and I was kinda curious to see its theater count this weekend.

[Old Spice]

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood report for Salt Lake City. Sugarhouse Cinemark, seven showtimes, 4:40 local time. (I only have six of the seven because I didn't do my homework and realize there was a 4:00 PM showing, but the data will paint a clear picture even without that first screening.)

 

4:40 PM 40/47

6:45 PM 39/46

7:40 PM 59/65

8:15 PM 40/47

9:50 PM 4/48 (just added)

10:25 PM 20/45

 

Total 202/298 67.8%

 

108% of Detective Pika = $58.9

374% of Rocketman = $96.11 (!!)

200% of Godzilla = $95.6 (But a significant amount of Zilla's $ went to the surrounding IMAX screens.)

252% of Dark Phoenix = $66.25

 

Basically, Once Upon is KILLING IT here. I'm guessing there's a certain amount of front-loading with the Tarantino name, but that doesn't explain away what looks to be a massive break from the tracking numbers. I think $50 mil is the floor.

 

 

Edited July 25, 2019 by A Star is Orm
Typo

[a2k]

ouath could be another gatsby - 51 ow, 145 dom

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

I'm guessing there's a certain amount of front-loading with the Tarantino name

I think this is something we shouldn't discount when looking at whatever the preview number is, along with the 4pm start.

 

This is the first Tarantino film that looks like a classic Tarantino film in quite a while (discounting Hateful Eight here for a moment).  So could be a huge fan rush.

 

Add in the extra showtimes from a 4pm start and I'm just saying we probably shouldn't go nuts if we see a relatively large preview number for this film.

[Brainbug]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Didn't have Wick 3's theater count at the time, so, yeah.  Still kinda important.  Got hit hard last week and I was kinda curious to see its theater count this weekend.

 

Bit OT, but Wick 3 imo has one of the most impressive runs of the summer so far. It grossed as much as Wick 2 in 9 Days and then still had some really nice holds. Its 169M DOM cume is only 2M short of Part 2's 171M WW cume.

 

Talk about WOM and growth.

[Porthos]

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

theater counts in quote

updated.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

OUATIH Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

 

 

 

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

 

2D:

 

4 PM – 83/158(+32)

 

4:30 PM – 39/94(+15)

 

7:45 PM – 128/158(+10)

 

8:15 PM – 71/94(+16)

 

11:20 PM – 21/158(+10)

 

 

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

 

2D:

 

4 PM – 68/159(+46)

 

5 PM – 67/159(+29)

 

6:15 PM – 57/85(+8)

 

7:45 PM – 111/159(+33)

 

8:45 PM – 76/159(+40)

 

9:45 PM – 29/85(+13)

 

Total from 8 theaters (35 showings): 1695(+765)/4090 (41.4%)

 

Quite the jump, almost half of all tickets were sold in the past 24 hours. TLK comp now suggests 5.14M. Seems to be within range of what everyone else is saying with their comps. So, what the heck, maybe TLK was somehow a good comp. Let’s go with that.

Are these comps factoring in lack of plf screens?