The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Barnack]

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

8m previews will happen.

 

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Previews could be even higher

 

 

more seriously would it no open the door for a 80 to 130m start an over 8M preview for a  non sequel movie ?

 

http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html

[MrPink]

Dunkirk did 5m two years ago but obviously had IMAX premiums to help boost that. I would say 4m is a good target for a director who can pull in an audience.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

Dunkirk did 5m two years ago but obviously had IMAX premiums to help boost that. I would say 4m is a good target for a director who can pull in an audience.

On the other hand, this has 4pm previews so more showings for tickets to be sold.

 

(still doing the quick-and-dirty check)

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I just liked this post, mostly reflexively from other reports.  But it inspired me to do a super quick-and-dirty check of Sacto.

 

...

 

Hmmmm....    

 

...

 

Lemme get back to this thread in a bit, as I'm still in the middle of it.

 

But...  Hmmmm....    

 

My theater is at 115 seats sold for tomorrow. That’s roughly 40% of Detective Pikachu at the same comparative timeframe. 

[Porthos]

Alright, I did a extremely sloppy quick-and-dirty check of the entire Sacramento region.  Basing on that I'd say around 4.5m to 5m+ is on the cards right now.

 

I happen to have a semi-decent comp in John Wick 3 (though that had PLF).  But that comp is at the end of the day, so I'm still missing about two hours of strong sales time and then whatever sales would happen between 8pm and 9:30pm my time.

 

Still, decent enough.  Literally right now, OUaTiH is comping around 76% of Wick 3's final Wed sales.  That'd be 4.5m in previews, more or less.

 

Haven't comped it against anything else to see how accurate that is. 

 

The thing is though, a decent amount of showtimes got added today. A lot of the showtimes already had a very high number of sales.  What's killing OUaTiH is that it doesn't have many of the largest auditoriums reserved for PLFs.

 

But could see this hitting 5m in previews.  If because of the 4pm start.

 

Might take another glance at it tonight and see if that thought sticks or not.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

My theater is at 115 seats sold for tomorrow. That’s roughly 40% of Detective Pikachu at the same comparative timeframe. 

Just checked and my number is 70% of Pika Pika's final Wed number, or 4m on the nose.  Factor in fewer kids tickets and more sales for the rest of the day, and that probably pulls it up to the 4.5m range.

 

Not gonna pull in a KotM comp since that was heavily reliant on PLFs and that will skew things.

 

If I want to do a lolcheck and check it against Aladdin (why? no idea), I get 63% of Aladdin's final Wed or 4.42m.  If Once Upon a Time is at all walkup based it might, and I stress might, kinda sorta keep pace.

 

Either way, kinda thinking 4m might be the floor.  If Sacto is any indication.  And given I haven't been tracking it, nor did I build a proper seat map, it might not be.

[cdsacken]

BOP with the 40m prediction, nice!. Let's go for 45-50!

[filmlover]

I never noticed until now that the weekends of August 9th and 16th have a whooping 10 movies opening between them. And most of them look to be nonstarters too (I honestly keep forgetting The Kitchen comes out in two weeks, which seems unthinkable for a McCarthy/Haddish/Moss crime drama).

[Eric the IF]

Once Upon A Time in Hollywood Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 Day and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	56	1,369	7,066	19.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 451

 

Adjusted Comps

8.38x of Crawl 1 day before release

11.13x of Stuber 1 day before release

0.19x of The Lion King 1 day before release

 

T-1

Crawl: 57 tickets sold that day (155 tickets sold total)

Once Upon: 439 tickets sold that day (1,299 tickets sold total)

 

Stuber: 36 tickets sold that day (111 tickets sold total)

Once Upon: 388 tickets sold that day (1,263 tickets sold total)

 

Lion King: 867 tickets sold that day (5,650 tickets sold total)

Once Upon: 351 tickets sold that day (1,062 tickets sold total)

 

So the range did come down to Earth slightly, but interestingly the lower end did see a rise. From 4.15M to 9.5M, now to 4.3M to 8.4M. It's good for two reasons. A smaller range means it's easier to extrapolate and measure things, while a higher lower end shows things are still trending in a positive direction.

 

If these comps were actually of quality and work with the movie Once Upon is, I would be more confident in 4M+, but I am more and more confident in 3M+ by the day

[Eric the IF]

Hobbs & Shaw T-8 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	30	219	5,506	3.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 27

 

Comps

0.09x of The Lion King 8 days before release

 

T-8

Lion King: 267 tickets sold that day (2,468 tickets sold in total)

 

For the record, Hobbs & Shaw has started to pick up some steam. Of course by "pick up steam", that just means selling in the single digits to the double digits. Especially compared to something like Lion King, which is sadly the only comp I have available, it makes the film seem like it is performing worse than it actually is. I'm not expecting much from the movie at the moment, but I sincerely doubt a 2M preview number is even remotely on the table.

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

 

 

more seriously would it no open the door for a 80 to 130m start an over 8M preview for a  non sequel movie ?

 

http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html

This is having a 4PM release. I am thinking previews will behave like a thursday release rather than plain previews. Release seem to be huge.

 

But I could be WAY OFF looking at anecdotal data. Would have loved to get some update from @Deep Wang to get national perspective.

[Porthos]

OUaTiH hit almost exactly a 5m comp against Wick 3 just now.

 

.8496x Wick 3 one day before the premiere (5.01m)

.7811x Pika Pika one day before the premiere (4.45m)

.7035x Aladdin one day before the premiere (4.92m)

 

If I decide to comp this tomorrow, my main problem will be only having two 4pm comps.  I do have some 4pm-ish numbers for some films though, so maybe I'll use those.

 

Or maybe I'll just blow it off and say 4.5m-5m looks pretty likely right now.  Depend on how I'm feeling tomorrow, probably.

[keysersoze123]

On 7/23/2019 at 8:10 PM, keysersoze123 said:

  Reveal hidden contents

Previews Once Hollywood

AMC Empire 25

Prime - 160/180 (A18 4PM), 168/180 (A18 745PM), 65/180 (A18 1130PM) Total 393/540
2D -  57/158(A6 515PM), 176/309 (A9 630PM), 12/146(A7 815PM),62/158(A6 9PM), 15/309 (A9 1015PM),7/144 (A20 1045PM)  Total 329/1124

Overall:- 722/1664 (44.4%)

 

 

Update.

 

Sold another 112 tickets today. Not bad considering its just one theater. Overall has sold slightly over half the tickets. One Prime time PLF show is sold out minus 4 special seats. Another one has only few seats available on front row plus few special seats.

 

Spoiler

Previews Once Hollywood
AMC Empire 25

Prime - 162/180 (A18 4PM), 176/180 (A18 745PM), 96/180 (A18 1130PM) Total 434(393)/540 2D -  71/158(A6 515PM), 199/309 (A9 630PM), 37/146(A7 815PM),65/158(A6 9PM), 20/309 (A9 1015PM),8/144 (A20 1045PM)  Total 400(329)/1124
Overall:- 834(722)/1664 (50.1%) +112

 

[Barnack]

44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is having a 4PM release. I am thinking previews will behave like a thursday release rather than plain previews. Release seem to be huge.

 

But I could be WAY OFF looking at anecdotal data. Would have loved to get some update from @Deep Wang to get national perspective.

What kind of OW / previews multiplier do you expect for this ?

 

Terrible ratio for a monster franchise entry with 4PM previews like Godzilla is 7.5, if it goes above $8M even that catastrophic multiplier would mean an OW above 60M OW, Blade Runner falled down completely and was a fanbase driven affair did 8.2, Ocean 9 did 10.4

[keysersoze123]

I wanted to look at Arclight Hollywood in LA and just 70mm shows( 3 shows) with 968 seats have 2 sellouts and another one almost sold out. That is over 2500 tickets for just 3 shows !!!! Its too big a screen to even count !!!!!! All but 1245AM 35mm show(Totally 7 shows) have great sales. Only Digital screens are showing average sales. I am sure its gonna end up in top theater list for this movie.

 

 

Edited July 25, 2019 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

What kind of OW / previews multiplier do you expect for this ?

 

Terrible ratio for a monster franchise entry with 4PM previews like Godzilla is 7.5, if it goes above $8M even that catastrophic multiplier would mean an OW above 60M OW, Blade Runner falled down completely and was a fanbase driven affair did 8.2, Ocean 9 did 10.4

R rated movie will mostly do business after work hours so Thursday should behave like a full day. I am not sure. Do you have any R rated movie comparisons. Plus this will have some upfront appeal with QT and mega star cast. Plus the reviews are there.

 

I am not great at extrapolating previews to OW as I have not looked at movies like this previously.

 

As I said I could be way off on previews but its going to have good OW for sure. I dont see sub 40m. I could see 50m+ as well.

[Barnack]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

R rated movie will mostly do business after work hours so Thursday should behave like a full day. I am not sure. Do you have any R rated movie comparisons. Plus this will have some upfront appeal with QT and mega star cast. Plus the reviews are there.

 

Blade Runner 2049: 8.188

Alien Covenant: 8.61

John Wick 3: 9.0

*Dunkirk: 9.18  (not R rated but... I imagine the audience did had to show much IDs)

Logan: 9.3

Us: 9.6

Halloween: 9.9

*Mamma Mia 2: 10.3 (not R rated but... I imagine the audience did had to show much IDs)

Ocean 8: 10.4

Deadpool: 10.428

The Meg: 11.3

Kingsman 2: 11.47

Equalizer 2: 11.6 (4:00 pm start and a sequel)

Strait outta Compton: 12

MadMax: 12.3

Star is Born: 13.4

American Sniper: 16.8

Revenant: 17

Neighbors: 19

Spy: 19.4 (5 PM start)

Ted: 20

Lone Survivor: 25

 

you can take a look http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html and https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/mpaa.htm for an idea.

 

Horror affair, franchise-sequel entry can get very frontloaded and do about 9.0/10 but it usually go above 11+.

 

It will have a lot of upfront appeal and should be on the most frontloaded one comparable (for a non sequel) maybe even like a franchise entry a la Ocean 8.

 

Edited July 25, 2019 by Barnack

[WrathOfHan]

My theater had to add about 5 extra shows for tomorrow night because the 7:30 and 8:15 shows are nearly sold out. I am confident in 40M+

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Blade Runner 2049: 8.188

Alien Covenant: 8.61

John Wick 3: 9.0

*Dunkirk: 9.18  (not R rated but... I imagine the audience did had to show much IDs)

Logan: 9.3

Us: 9.6

Halloween: 9.9

*Mamma Mia 2: 10.3 (not R rated but... I imagine the audience did had to show much IDs)

Ocean 8: 10.4

Deadpool: 10.428

The Meg: 11.3

Kingsman 2: 11.47

Strait outta Compton: 12

MadMax: 12.3

Star is Born: 13.4

American Sniper: 16.8

Revenant: 17

Neighbors: 19

Ted: 20

Lone Survivor: 25

 

you can take a look http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html and https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/mpaa.htm for an idea.

 

Horror affair, franchise-sequel entry can get very frontloaded and do about 9.0/10 but it usually go above 11+.

 

It will have a lot of upfront appeal and should be on the most frontloaded one comparable (for a non sequel) maybe even like a franchise entry a la Ocean 8.

 

Even if R-rated films are more bent to evening showings, a 4pm start should still depress the internal multiplier as it will also include 5pm and 6pm showings.

 

This link also gives the start time if it isn't 7pm: 

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O0sNH_An1oCqxZQo0hd1v6lq0KTw1uCODh4_UflRA8Y/edit#gid=1884622349

Edited July 25, 2019 by Porthos

[a2k]

EQ2 did 36 ow after 3.1 previews. That's 11.6x

10-12x for HWOOD seems fair.

4.5m previews, 11x for ~50m ow would be fantastic.