The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[dxmatrixdt]

On 4/12/2019 at 9:04 PM, 2010s Painkiller Race said:

665 - Avengers: Endgame (-10)  - overseas - $1,300,000,000

550 - The Lion King (-25) - overseas - $700,000,000

375 - Detective Pikachu (n.c.)- overseas - $850,000,000

290 - Spider-Man (-10) - overseas - $550,000,000

250 - IT: Chapter Two (n.c.) - 

 

250 - Secret Life of Pets 2 (+30) - overseas - $500,000,000

250 - Toy Story 4 (+30) - overseas - $500,000,000

200 - Hobbes & Shaw (-15) - overseas - $550,000,000

200 - Aladdin (n.c.) - overseas - $400,000,000

200 - Joker (n.c.)

180 - Godzilla (-10) - overseas - $450,000,000

180 - Us (n.c.)

150 - Shazam! (-10)

130 - Men in Black (+5)

120 - Rocketman (+20)

 

110 - Artemis Fowl (-15)

110 - Dumbo (n.c.)

105 - Dark Phoenix (-5)

100 - … Hollywood (n.c.)

95 - Annabelle 3 (n.c.)

95 - Child's Play (n.c.)

95 - John Wick 3 (n.c.)

85 - New Mutants (n.c.)

80 - Angry Birds 2 (-10)

75 - Dora (-15)

75 - Shaft (n.c.)

65 - Pet Semetary (-5)

60 - Ma (+5)

60 - Scary Stories (+5)

60 - La Llorona (+5)

 

if anyone bets real money on the box office performances of movies in the annual summer schedule,

if there is such at stake,

this summer would have sunken everyone. 

is this the summer that got away, relative to box office forecasting, or will everything be this hard to gauge?

Imagine if Incredibles 2 opened next month to around 180 OW

[Yandereprime101189]

Any early word on when It Chapter 2 tickets go on pre-sales?

[Eric Duncan]

23 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Any early word on when It Chapter 2 tickets go on pre-sales?

No definitive word, but my feeling is it'll drop after Hobbs & Shaw opens

[el sid]

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, sold tickets for the previews today and for Friday,
counted today ca. at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 186 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 232 (total tickets sold for Friday, 6 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 194 / 306 ( 9 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 542 / 376 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 264 / 160 (13 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 184 / 79 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 97 / 97 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 136 / 125 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 574 / 327 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 335 / 251 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.132 (22 showtimes) / 621 (13 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 10 theaters till Thursday for today: 3.644 and for Friday: 2.765.

Stuber had on Thursday 457 / 441 sold tickets (with showtimes in 10 theaters) and Crawl 417 / 334 (also in 10 theaters).

I was too lazy to count The Lion King again on Thursday .
But compared to yesterday its sold tickets increased by 40% and again 40%. Not bad at all for a movie that was already in good shape before! I'm also confident that it will reach ca. The Revenant numbers, maybe a bit more? 

[keysersoze123]

Another update. Once Upon has sold another 111 tickets. Not bad at all. I am expecting it to ramp up close to showtime.

 

Spoiler

AMC Empire 25
Prime - 167(162)/180 (A18 4PM), 174/180 (A18 745PM), 107(96)/180 (A18 1130PM) Total 448(434)(393)/540

2D -  87(71)/158(A6 515PM), 226(199)/309 (A9 630PM), 68(37)/146(A7 815PM),76(65)/158(A6 9PM), 32(20)/309 (A9 1015PM),8/144 (A20 1045PM)  Total 497(400(329))/1124
Overall:- 945/1664 (56.8%) +111

 

[FlashMaster659]

OUATIH - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

2D Dine-In

 

5:00 PM - 56/78

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 39/63

9:00 PM - 48/78

9:30 PM - 34/63

 

2D

 

4:00 PM - 81/114

6:00 PM - 87/167

7:00 PM - 57/79

7:45 PM - 84/114

10:00 PM - 42/167

10:45 PM - 22/79

 

Total

 

587/1063 (55.2%)

 

0.2721x as many seats sold as The Lion King mid-day of previews

0.4015x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 mid-day of previews

[Eric Duncan]

Once Upon A Time in Hollywood Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-0 Days and Counting (FINAL REPORT)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	56	1,902	7,066	26.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 533

 

Adjusted Comps

4.19x of Crawl 0 days before release

6.83x of Stuber 0 days before release

0.19x of The Lion King 0 days before release

 

T-0

Crawl: 274 tickets sold (429 total)

Once Upon: 500 tickets sold (1,799 total)

 

Stuber: 140 tickets sold (251 total)

Once Upon: 478 tickets sold (1,714 total)

 

Lion King: 1,957 tickets sold (7,607 total)

Once Upon: 406 tickets sold (1,468 total)

 

And now, we end with a range that seems more definitive, about 4.2M to 5.1M. Now part of why things came down to Earth is how early I began tracking the finals for Once Upon. All the other movies had previews later, and I don't really have the time to track stuff at 6 or 7 right now. Either way, this range is what most people here have been indicating for the past couple days, so I'd say it's fair to pick a number somewhere around that.

Edited July 25, 2019 by CoolEric258

[FlashMaster659]

OUATIH - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

2D

 

4:00 PM - 13/196

5:00 PM - 8/208

6:00 PM - 8/411

7:45 PM - 44/196

8:45 PM - 13/208

9:45 PM - 3/411

10:15 PM - 4/155

 

Total

 

93/1785 (5.2%)

 

0.2004x as many seats sold as The Lion King mid-day of previews

0.2246x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 mid-day of previews

0.6370x as many seats sold as Aladdin mid-day of previews

[Porthos]

OUaTiH kinda blew up in Sacto on the half day.

 

Forgot about checking it so I did my half-day sample about 30 to 45 minutes later than I did for the following films, so depress the comp a little.  But since last night OUaTiH sold 663 tickets region wide and now stands at 2426/7552 sold (32.12%) with 92 showings region wide.

 

That's 10 more showings than John Wick 3 ended up with, but it's starting earlier and has no PLF dollars, so not exactly the same.

 

Either way:

 

.9158x Pika Pika at approx mid day of premiere (5.4m)

.9727x Wick 3 at approx mid day of premiere (5.5m)

.7849x Aladdin at approx mid day of premiere (5.5m)

 

It's actually ahead of KotM at this point in time, but that had an inordinate PLF share, so I ain't comping it.

 

===

 

Now I did take this sample later a tiny bit later.  Pika Pika had 3D.  Aladdin and Wick 3 had later start times and PLFs.  On the other hand, the share of kids tickets is gonna be far less for OUaTiH than any film except for Wick 3 (understatement, I would hope).

 

Kinda thinking then 5m to 5.25m right now.  And I might be conservative here.

Edited July 25, 2019 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

22 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

OUATIH - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

2D

 

4:00 PM - 13/196

5:00 PM - 8/208

6:00 PM - 8/411

7:45 PM - 44/196

8:45 PM - 13/208

9:45 PM - 3/411

10:15 PM - 4/155

 

Total

 

93/1785 (5.2%)

 

0.2004x as many seats sold as The Lion King mid-day of previews

0.2246x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 mid-day of previews

0.6370x as many seats sold as Aladdin mid-day of previews

That is the weakest plex I have seen. At NYC most theaters have started great. Prime show at Empire 25 sold 170/180 and E-Walk and 34th St also sold great.

This is one of the movies which could go either way as we don’t have any macro data. I am hoping for 5+ previews looking at the anecdotal data.

[TalismanRing]

On 7/24/2019 at 4:12 PM, TalismanRing said:

OUATIH (WED 4pm)

 

4:15    24/255
7:50    99/255
8:30    14/205
9:30    14/246
10:25    8/218

159/1179 = 13.48%

 

 

TS4 (WEd 4:30pm)  233/2049 = 11.37%

X-Men 6 (WED 3:15pm) 209/942 = 22.19%

TLK (Wed 7PM) 557/3228 = 17.26% 

 

NYC LOCAL

 

OUATIH (THUR 4:20pm)

 

4:15    95/255
7:50    135/255
8:30    40/205
9:30    42/246
10:25    23/218

 

335/1179 = 28.41%

 

X6 (Thur 3:45pm) = 272/942 = 28.87%   (6pm start)

GODZ2 (Thur 3:30pm) 204 / 2150 = 9.488%  (4pm start)

SHAZAM (THUR 3:30pm)" =187 / 2229 = 8.3%    (4pm start)

 

Edited July 25, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

OUATIH (THUR 4:20pm)

 

4:15    95/255
7:50    135/255
8:30    40/205
9:30    42/246
10:25    23/218

 

335/1179 = 28.41%

 

X6 (Thur 3:45pm) = 272/942 = 28.87%   (6pm start)

GODZ2 (Thur 3:30pm) 204 / 2150 = 9.488%  (4pm start)

SHAZAM (THUR 3:30pm)" =187 / 2229 = 8.3%    (4pm start)

 

335/187 = 1.79x

 

1.79 x 5.9 = 10.57m

 

More adult tickets sold = 11m previews guaranteed!!!! 

 

(sorry )

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

335/187 = 1.79x

 

1.79 x 5.9 = 10.57m

 

More adult tickets sold = 11m previews guaranteed!!!! 

[XXR vs XXR]

OUATIH previews will be stronger than I anticipated. Looking at $7m 

[Alli]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

OUATIH previews will be stronger than I anticipated. Looking at $7m 

but my club....😧

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

OUATIH previews will be stronger than I anticipated. Looking at $7m 

Little too optimistic, I think.  No PLF and no 3D, don't forget.  Wick 3 had an explosion the final week and could "only" get to 5.7m.  And it had at least a decent share of PLFs out there.

[VENOM]

7 minutes ago, Alli said:

but my club....😧

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Little too optimistic, I think.  No PLF and no 3D, don't forget.  Wick 3 had an explosion the final week and could "only" get to 5.7m.  And it had at least a decent share of PLFs out there.

Good point. Let’s knock 20-ish% off of it and go with $5.4m

[narniadis]

Thank you all! 5m seems like a good expectation line so any over that will be bonus for me. 

Appreciate all the work. 

[Cmasterclay]

Took a look around me - the 7:45 is pretty much sold out in large auditorium and it is selling decent enough in the other screenings as well. That's great for this type of movie around here. I don't have time to count or anything but just visually it looks to be in the same place as John Wick here if not better - though I expect it to do worse in Middle America than "coastal elite" counties like mine compared to JW3.

 

I had 25-40 as my range going into the week because buzz was a bit quiet but it seems to have stepped up media wise and with these ticket sales I can see 35-50 happening instead.