The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

37 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Are these comps factoring in lack of plf screens?

No. Hopefully the amount of children tickets that were sold evens out the playing field.

[TomeRide]

One comp that I barely see coming up in conversations is Dunkirk. While they differ in rating and genre, both are new, original, acclaimed releases from the biggest auteurs in town, both have basically the same release date, and they both draw an old crowd. Two years ago Dunkirk opened to $50.5M on almost the same amount of theaters, off of $5.5M in Thursday previews (6PM start), and legged out to $188M.

 

I think its certainly possible we can see numbers in that ballpark, considering Thursday is already looking to deliver. With Leo on board it might even get a similar 36/64 split (may I remind everyone that he dragged The Revenant to $349M overseas and The Wolf of Wall Street to $275M).

 

Of course there are Django Unchained and Inglorious Basterds to look at, but Django was a Christmas release on a Tuesday, while Basterds is already 10 years old. Hollywood might target their inflation adjusted totals $145M-$184M, but for a day to day basis, I think Dunkirk is probably the best comp, especially if Hollywood overpreforms and goes above previous Tarantino works.

Edited July 26, 2019 by TomeRide

[TalismanRing]

I answer ed Porthos' question and didn't realize it was in the TLK topic.  So just a re-post on possible multis

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

4.5m to 5.5m in previews looks fairly reasonable in my mind.

 

My problem on the internal multi (which I HATE forecasting) is 1) 4pm previews (which WILL depress it) and 2) Fan rush for Tarantino.   

 

So, can't really comment on the OW, myself.  I'd ask @TalismanRing about that personally, as she's one of the best on the board on forecasting an internal multi, IMO.

Not a lot of Tarantino comps since Hateful Eight opened limited first and both it and Django opened on or over XMAS

 

Ergo a lot of flailing and rambling

 

Going back to Inglorious Basterds which opened during the summer

 

2009-08-21  Inglourious Basterds   Friday    1.90 (Mid Previews)/    14.4 (OD)/  38.1 (OW)  /   20.0 (Midnights/OW Multi)

 

Minus previews which aren't very big and True Friday is $12.5  /$ 36.2 (minus previews) = 2.89x

 

Recent 4pm adult R rated films

 

2018-07-20  Equalizer 2        Friday    3.10 (4pm Previews)/    13.4 (OD)/  36.0 (OW)  / 11.6 (Midnights/OW Multi)

 

True Friday 10.3/  32.9 (mins previews) = 3.19x

 

Even with Thur previews opening at 4pm instead of midnight and 63% higher it's True Friday/OW (minus previews) is less front loaded by 10%
 

Grindhouse had a OD/OW - 2.3x multi in April while  Reaping (R Horror) opened the same w/ had a 2.65x

Kill Bill 2 - 2.33x multi  while Punisher (R) had a 2.68 the same w/e

So both of those about 15% more front loaded than other R rated films opening the same w/e. 

 

Tracking Leo openers for comps is about as difficult.  His last two films also opened during X-Mas.  So back to The Great Gatsby with

3.25 previews though yielded a $50m w/e though  for a 15x - though Friday was 19.4 so heavily OD front loaded.  Sat had a 9% bump from True Friday. 

 

With previews starting at 4pm how much of that OD Leo rush is now pushed to Thur along with the Tarantino rush?

 

So - my guess based on very little info -  Tarantino films having their own fan rush factor and with previews starting at 4pm (which looked to be quite well attended)  the multi could be closer to 9 (or even 8 ) than 10.

 

Edited July 26, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

So - my guess based on very little info -  Tarantino films having their own fan rush factor and with previews starting at 4pm (which looked to be quite well attended)  the multi could be closer to 9 (or even 8 ) than 10.

Yeah, that seems pretty reasonable to me.  Bunch of 4pm'ers got in the low 9s this year as well.

 

(Then there is KotM )

[keysersoze123]

I looked at prime time shows in most west coast cities and sales are rock solid. I am seeing several sellouts as well.

[Cap]

Once Upon A Time in Hollywood

Thursday Previews

 

Sneaking back in with Numbers like:

 

 

Not even gonna front, I was totally about to come in here and say 'No Way, Jose' about all those aggressive OUATIH Preview Numbers.  Then I did the numbers:

 

v Comps Final Day
Movie	Sold	%	Est
Lincoln Square 13
OUATIH	1232	--	--
Pika Pika	613	200.97%	11.45
John Wick 3	675	182.51%	10.76
Rocketman	470	262.12%	4.58
Cinemagic
OUATIH	237	--	--
Pika Pika	158	150.00%	8.55
John Wick 3	186	127.41%	7.51
Rocketman	57	415.78%	7.27

 

This sold unbelievable tonight in both NYC and my local hick town.  1232 at Lincoln Square is outstanding.  It's almost as much as Toy Story 4 sold.  Only Dark Phoenix, The Lion King, and Endgame sold more.  AND! This did it without ANY PLFs.  No IMAX, no Dolby, no 3D.  Just Insane.  

 

At Cinemagic, only Toy Story 4, The Lion King, and Endgame have sold more since I started tracking.

 

Everything in my gut's going "LOL, NO" at the estimates.  "It's the QT Rush Factor" "There's no PLFs" "It's just Over-performing in the East Coast".

 

I feel like Rocketman is the best comp since he didn't have as many PLFs where John Wick *did* have some IMAXs (ours never switched over) and Pika was more a family film that skewed older.

 

5-7M wouldn't shock me at all.   

[keysersoze123]

Awesome stuff @captainwondyful. As I posted earlier, its not just east coast. West coast is super strong as well.

 

Midnight show at Arclight hollywood on a 968 seater 70mm screen(image below). Almost a sellout. All other 35mm and digital are close to sellouts as well. I saw strong showing in Seattle, Portland and Musketeer City as well. Alamo is SF has 2 sellouts and late shows are strong in most theaters as well.

 

https://imgur.com/Q5puots

 

[JB33]

Out of reacts but thanks @TalismanRing and @captainwondyful!

[Porthos]

On 7/21/2019 at 10:10 PM, Porthos said:

*compiles daily data*

 

Yeaaah, I think I'll hold off 'till Thr for H&S.  Then come hell or high water, I'll report them whatever they are.  Just not worth reporting a daily at the moment (and the percentages barely changed today from what I reported earlier).

 

IF this really is similar to MI:6 (as we don't have Pulse data for FF8) there really is no point in publishing a comp that will be woefully off the mark, as it will give an inaccurate/misleading reading of things.  Even is there is an amusement factor, I reckon it ain't worth it.

 

(not pictured - car probably smashing into the train and turning into a giant fireball)

[Porthos]

Hobbs & Shaw Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	58	6144	6597	453	6.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                 71

 

Apparently I don't have ANY good comps for this film given its sale pattern.  Might throw in some others at the last moment, or I might change them entirely after thinking about it some more. But here are four recent comps.  DON'T TAKE MUCH (if anything) FROM THESE:

 

Comps (probably lol - use at own risk)

0.4809x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 7 days before release.       [2.74m]

0.3855x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 7 days before release.                      [2.70m]

0.4494x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 7 days before release.  [2.83m]

0.1134x as many tickets sold as The Lion King 7 days before release.             [2.61m]

 

T-7:

Pika        75 seats sold [0 sellouts/66 shows  |   6631/7573 seats    |  942 seats sold |  12.44% sold]

Aladdin  98 seats sold [0 sellouts/74 shows  |   9543/10718 seats  | 1175 seats sold |  10.96% sold]

KotM    102 seats sold [0 sellouts/98 shows  | 12732/13740 seats  | 1008 seats sold |   7.34% sold]

TLK      289 seats sold [0 sellouts/225 shows | 19422/23416 seats | 3994 seats sold | 17.06% sold]

[Porthos]

Now you might be tempted to laugh at those totals, and I wouldn't blame you.

Except that the 71 tickets sold today is easily the best day of sales, including the first day of sales.

 

This is the sales the last eight days:

 

T-14: 19
T-13: 26
T-12:   7
T-11:   9
T-10: 21
T-9:   34
T-8:   30
T-7:   71

 

Picked up late last week, dipped again on Sat/Sun (not unusual) then picked up steam, including today.

 

Is it enough to follow M:I6 from last year?  Only time will tell.  But might, just might, be worth tracking after all.

Edited July 26, 2019 by Porthos

[Cap]

I am laughing cause you are tracking it. 😂😂

[JB33]

You just couldn't help yourself, @Porthos! I love it.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, JB33 said:

You just couldn't help yourself, @Porthos! I love it.

Been tracking it all along, just not publicly.

 

The way I look at it, if it really does massively under-perform, I get to yell at Shawn for leading me astray. Win win, in my book.

Edited July 26, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

Under 3M confirmed by resident tracking expert Porthos. Just gotta go make that reddit thread 😛 

[Porthos]

Taking practically no time at all also helps, if we’re being honest here.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Under 3M confirmed by resident tracking expert Porthos. Just gotta go make that reddit thread 😛 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

she's

@TalismanRing is a She

I have lost my powers to know people by reading their posts.

And now that I checked, it was always in her profile.

 

The next shock would be to know, either of @Thanos Legion or @ZeeSoh aren't boys.

 

Edited July 26, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

@TalismanRing is a She

I have lost my powers to know people by reading their posts.

Always be having a Chris Evans avatar-> “she”  

Edited July 26, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Always be having a Chris Evans avatar-> “she”  

@THUNDER BIRD begs to differ.

 

It's not avatar, but even username "Talisman" sound not female-ish (I hope I am not offending her, if I am, I am very sorry).

Edited July 26, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder