The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[JB33]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Oh, I thought you were riffing on my reluctance to discuss internal multis, as you noted a couple of days ago.  Apologies if that wasn't the case.

No clue whatsoever.  I only kept sellout data for R1/TLJ so I have no real frame of reference on how they really did.  Solo did seem to come in line with the nation though.  More or less, at least. 

 

I can compare contrast sellout data for both of those films when TROS gets closer to release.  But even there, the sheer increase in showtimes locally is gonna make that difficult (more on that point closer to release).

Thanks! Yeah I figured it would be an inexact science with no straight answer, at least at this point. I couldn't remember when you started fully tracking.

 

And you got it right. I was riffing. Just being sarcastic haha. Smilies are your friend, as my sister often reminds me.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

18 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Unfortunately its taking too long to get the data and so I have only partial for MTC1. I will update as I have them. that will probably be tomorrow.

 

SW9

MTC1 Prev - overall 5069 shows 287631/847172 4307219.72 +13182
MTC1 OD-  overall 5324 shows 187062/1088368 2970455.27 post 6PM 2453 shows 113422/503169 1911199.54 +21775
MTC1 D2 - overall 5265 shows 151475/1078244 2266066.97 post 6PM 2447 shows 60107/501997 1038538.70 +20439

 

Good to see increases for OD and saturday this early.

SW9(Rest)

MTC1 D3 - overall 5103 shows 76525/1045220 1144744.36 post 6PM 2391 shows 24964/492114 437259.22 +12650
MTC2 Prev - overall 3043 shows 187082/447086 2398753.00 post 6PM 2979 shows 179463/438066 2261707.00 +11650
MTC2 OD - overall 4416 shows 136416/723943 1558788.00 post 6PM 1684 shows 73552/284645 953817.00 +20678
MTC2 D2 - overall 4437 shows 104842/730404 1146845.00 post 6PM 1694 shows 30187/286643 401570.00 +19031
MTC2 D3 -overall 4377 shows 48078/723327 509510.00 post 6PM 1620 shows 10693/276114 135093.00 +11715

 

The rest. I think another great week(almost 8 days for MTC2. I did previews update sometime earlier and so its not that long). More than 131K tickets sold at 2 MTC since my previous update. Considering we have 4 weeks to go, how good is that. Its looking like its starting to accelerate as well. 

 

As I posted earlier, I feel good about 50m previews. Show count will shoot up week to release. That is when I am expecting previews PS to cross 1M tickets.

 

[XXR & Friends]

My predictions are known for always being correct, and I can say with 100% certainty that TROS previews will be somewhere between Solo and TFA previews. 

[JB33]

41 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

My predictions are known for always being correct, and I can say with 100% certainty that TROS previews will be somewhere between Solo and TFA previews. 

Alright now we're getting somewhere! 

[keysersoze123]

42 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

My predictions are known for always being correct, and I can say with 100% certainty that TROS previews will be somewhere between Solo and TFA previews. 

Now I know its beating Endgame previews for shoo.

[keysersoze123]

Since this is post weekend and post Monday thread I thought I will post it here.

 

F2 day 5(Discount Tuesday)

MTC1 - overall 5396 shows 126033/993275 1573411.87 1296243.02 pre noon 815 shows 17865/138652 131138.55 130801.76 post 6PM 2446 shows 61403/455172 844267.43 670027.40 530PM
MTC2 - overall 5757 shows 111747/908370 1059544.00 pre noon 1192 shows 20603/187118 163411.00 post 6PM 2082 shows 41841/332264 459700.00

 

Very strong considering there is a day and half to go for shows to start. I could see bigger than norm drop tomorrow as families could wait for discount tuesday. Also BO seem quite spread out as schools are out.

[ZackM]

The Rise of Skywalker - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	1	0	0
Seats Added	1	0	77	3	0
Seats Sold	94	92	~123	~123	~123
11/24/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	237	28,931	41,860	12,929	30.89%

[Eric the Minion]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	165	9,100	30,741	29.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 144

 

Comp

4.784x of Once Upon’s final count (27.75M)

2.627x of It: Chapter Two (27.58M)

1.853x of Joker (24.65M)

13.056x of Maleficent (30.02M)

10.448x of Terminator (24.55M)

2.707x of Frozen II (23.01M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.777x of Lion King (17.86M)

3.685x of Hobbs & Shaw (21.38M)

 

This was a great day. This is the highest # of tickets sold since the first week of presales, and is a nice way to end the week. Obviously the fandom retrospective clip helped, so I do expect a decline tomorrow, but it's still strong results either way.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Since this is post weekend and post Monday thread I thought I will post it here.

 

F2 day 5(Discount Tuesday)

MTC1 - overall 5396 shows 126033/993275 1573411.87 1296243.02 pre noon 815 shows 17865/138652 131138.55 130801.76 post 6PM 2446 shows 61403/455172 844267.43 670027.40 530PM
MTC2 - overall 5757 shows 111747/908370 1059544.00 pre noon 1192 shows 20603/187118 163411.00 post 6PM 2082 shows 41841/332264 459700.00

 

Very strong considering there is a day and half to go for shows to start. I could see bigger than norm drop tomorrow as families could wait for discount tuesday. Also BO seem quite spread out as schools are out.

Tuesday might be 20+, FFH OD was 2153424 at MTC2 at midnight of release day and did $36 million. What would be an expected bump for Wednesday. 

Edited November 25, 2019 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Tuesday might be 20+, FFH OD was 2153424 at MTC2 at midnight of release day and did $36 million. What would be an expected bump for Wednesday. 

Discount tuesday bumps have been crazy off late and so anything is on the table. Let us 1st see where monday ends up. Plus this week  being holiday week as well that adds a lot.

 

Question for those who track individual theaters/cities. Does Discount Tuesday apply this week as well. For example some plexes already said no discount for SW9 1st tuesday. But that is Christmas eve.

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Discount tuesday bumps have been crazy off late and so anything is on the table. Let us 1st see where monday ends up. Plus this week  being holiday week as well that adds a lot.

 

Question for those who track individual theaters/cities. Does Discount Tuesday apply this week as well. For example some plexes already said no discount for SW9 1st tuesday. But that is Christmas eve.

MTC2 has it all over their website that discounts do not apply from 12.20 to 1.1 so far its not denting this week either - wife and I are buying cheap tixs for Tuesday for our kids this week lol. 

[narniadis]

14 minutes ago, Menor said:

Tuesday might be 20+, FFH OD was 2153424 at MTC2 at midnight of release day and did $36 million. What would be an expected bump for Wednesday. 

Wednesdays benefit is more the lack of drops than big rises. At least the last couple of years as discount Tuesday has gotten massive. Biggest difference this go around is the lack of a new family film opening on Wednesday which is what tends to dent a bigger increase. Wednesday is also the busiest travel day of the week for this Holiday (followed by Sunday). 

 

All that to say - from looking at past years maybe 10% would be a good marker to look at? Thursday will also drop more than others as a family film. 

Edited November 25, 2019 by narniadis

[keysersoze123]

Discount tuesdays are crazy for sure. Joker 1st tuesday saw 43% increase. in General if weekdays are stronger then weekend holds get weaker. Wednesday increase will be softer. But every year the effect of discount tuesday is more than previous year and so we have to see how this wednesday will behave.

 

So only tomorrow would be a weekday like. Tuesday's are super strong and wednesday is like a friday. Thanksgiving could end up as weakest day if it has good hold tomorrow.

 

F2 Day 6

MTC1 - overall 4445 shows 58093/870625 683883.59 588712.72 pre noon 631 shows 15172/116748 113299.53 113112.00 post 6PM 2065 shows 17345/408330 239423.13 194047.77
MTC2 - overall 4139 shows 63300/694475 573289.00 pre noon 885 shows 19415/147014 152030.00 post 6PM 1513 shows 12406/256516 140574.00

 

Definitely at a good place with more than 2 days to go. Also looking at shows before noon being stronger than shows after 6PM clearly shows families are looking for cheap tickets early on.

Edited November 25, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	205	11452	24152	12700	52.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

122

 

T-25 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	383.93		29	3162		2/81	7454/10616	29.791%		79.47m
TROS (adj)	n/a		115	12140		2/205	10750/22890	53.04%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-25 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	162.76		64	6660		1/116	4465/11125	59.87%		63.48m
TROS (adj)	n/a		102	10840		2/205	7931/18771	57.75%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	71.51		15159		10840		27.89m
DP2	133.28		8133		10840		24.79m
Solo	187.25		5789		10840		26.40m
JW:FK	174.05		6228		10840		26.63m
AM&tW	235.40		4605		10840		27.07m
Venom	251.59		4493		11304		25.16m
CM	115.04		10553		12140		23.81m
EG	45.54		26655		12140		27.33m
TLK	110.59		10977		12140		25.44m
It 2	224.42		5659		12700		23.56m
AVG							25.81m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

===

 

Best single day in nearly a month, and the first 100+ ticket day in over two and a half weeks.  Don't know if it was the special look that dropped tonight, the TV spot on Sunday Night Football, or just a combination of ramped up promotion.  Either way, a great day no matter how it's sliced.

[keysersoze123]

@Porthos When would T- comps start with Endgame?

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Porthos When would T- comps start with Endgame?

T-19 or T-18 sounds like a good landing day.  There's no point to a T-23 comp (Endgame's first day of sales).  And its next three days were still really psycho, so they're not much better.

 

Probably bring Solo in at around T-16, as that's when its rampup finished (it started pre-sales at T-20), though I could be talked into bringing it back in at T-18 at the same time as Endgame just for symmetry and simplicity.

Edited November 25, 2019 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

T-19 or T-18 sounds like a good landing day.  There's no point to a T-23 comp (Endgame's first day of sales).  And its next three days were still really psycho, so they're not much better.

 

Probably bring Solo in at around T-16, as that's when its rampup finished (it started pre-sales at T-20), though I could be talked into bringing it back in at T-18 at the same time as Endgame just for symmetry and simplicity.

Out of likes but thanks for the update. I think what you say makes sense. 1st few days are all over the park until things go steady state. So that is week away. Solo would also be good to compare.

[keysersoze123]

I normally run SW9 only once a week as we are so far off and there is so much work to run. But I was curious after seeing boosts for @Eric Plus and @Porthos

 

So partiual updates at least.

 

SW9

MTC1 PREVIEWS - overall 5104 shows 291524/851868 4360393.66 post 6PM 4277 shows 266527/711178 4155639.83 +3893
MTC1  OD - overall 5324 shows 190943/1088368 3027216.68 post 6PM 2453 shows 115634/503169 1945450.33 +3881
MTC2  PREV - overall 3043 shows 188639/447086 2417218.00 +1577 (just under 12 hours)

 

Very good indded. If I extrapolate that would be 13-14K tickets at MTC1 for OW and  around 10-11K per day run rate at MTC2. That is really good.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

MTC1 Prev - overall 5069 shows 287631/847172 4307219.72 +13182

MTC2 Prev - overall 3043 shows 187082/447086 2398753.00 +11650

 

So about $18.5mn previews so far. I doubt $50mn. I mean this far in PS it should have sold at least half of previews. A lot can change by walk-ins but I think 40mn is likely from here.

[MCKillswitch123]

5 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

So about $18.5mn previews so far. I doubt $50mn. I mean this far in PS it should have sold at least half of previews. A lot can change by walk-ins but I think 40mn is likely from here.

Still, it is telling that 40-50M is a likely range for previews coming off the massive controversy of TLJ and the bombage of Solo. Star Wars is virtually unkillable. Either that, or JJ is just that damn good at saving franchises.

Edited November 25, 2019 by MCKillswitch123