The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Valonqar]

reviews will be circle jerk as always. TFA got them, TLJ got them. Early reactions will say best SW since ESB. As was the case with TFA and TLJ. 

[lorddemaxus]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

reviews will be circle jerk as always. TFA got them, TLJ got them. Early reactions will say best SW since ESB. As was the case with TFA and TLJ. 

But Rogue One, Solo, and The Mandalorian weren't called that and the latter two have just above average reviews. 

[Eric Quinn]

Moderation

 

We're starting to get a touch off topic about reviews. While I understand it does relate to ticket sales and tracking here, it's starting to verge away from what this thread is all about.

 

@Valonqar @lorddemaxus I recommend taking this conversation elsewhere

[Valonqar]

@Eric Plus seen and sorry!

Edited November 25, 2019 by Valonqar

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, Eric Plus said:

 

@Valonqar @lorddemaxus I recommend taking this conversation elsewhere

Sorry, I replied without thinking.

[Marek the Jedi]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

Thank you!!! That is very helpful!!

 

It DOES seem like those who want to see it on Thursday already bought the tickets or at least a high percentage of those wanting Thursday previews have done so.

from what I see, no, not all of them bought their ticket for thursday..., just wait how many more shows will appear for thursday and whole weekend when we get closer to premere...

you are talking like almost all previews seats were bought right know... and that's not true.... there is plenty of time to fill many more seats for previews and whole weekend....

Marek

[Marek the Jedi]

oh, I am sorry for off topic,...

Marek

[StarWarsMemer]

3 hours ago, Eric Plus said:

The way Frozen and TROS are tracked were completely different.

 

With Frozen, which is typical for all other openers, I am tracking at the exact same time. So about a week before Thursday previews started, I was comparing Frozen II's tickets 7 days before release compared to Maleficent or Lion King's tickets 7 days before release. The reason why Frozen declined from 12M to 8M was because as the days went on, 5 days before release, 3 days before release, the increase in tickets sold wasn't as strong nor as prominent as those other films. That means those comps are going to go down.

 

Now TROS is done differently. Because the numbers are so high this far out in release compared to most other movies being tracked, the comps are numbers that are impossible to achieve. That's why I, and others, are comparing the final, Day 0 numbers of the movies being compared. Using It 2 as an example, TROS' sales 25 days before release are at 9,100 ticket. It 2's sales 25 days before release was at 507 tickets. By using the former as a numerator and the latter as a denominator, you get 17.949x that number. And using that multiple with It 2's 10.5M previews, you get 188.46M just for Thursday.

 

Obviously that's impossible, so to compromise, I use It 2's final presales number, where it sold 3,464 tickets once previews started, and compare that to TROS' current numbers. This leads to 2.627x, and 27.58M. So, if TROS doesn't anything from now until December 19, then we can estimate the preview numbers would be at around 27.5M, give or take a few. Of course, that's not what happens. Because each day will have at least some sort of increase in tickets sold, unless hundreds of people randomly decide to get a refund, because the denominator of 3,464 is stagnant, there's going to be an increase every day. If just 100 tickets get sold today, then the comp will increase from 27.58M to 27.89M.

 

So no, comps are not indicating 25-30M, and, at least for comps comparing final numbers, it won't drop, unless some freak accident occurs. Now, what does this actually mean? What's the number these indicate? I don't know. I'm sure once we get closer to release I'll have a better answer, but I have no clue. At the very least, it should do at least 30M, but exact numbers, or whether it will hit 40M or even 50M? No clue.

how many days before release did IT 2's PS start?

[lorddemaxus]

This is too early to even talk about it but what kind of previews to OW multiplier will TROS likely have? Under 5x like the last two sequels or over it like the spin-offs?

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	256	13441	53600	40159	25.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 150

[RockyMountain]

16 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

This is too early to even talk about it but what kind of previews to OW multiplier will TROS likely have? Under 5x like the last two sequels or over it like the spin-offs?

More people in general will go to a numbered trilogy than they would a regular spinoff movie. So it would resemble the other sequels more than it would the spin offs,

[Menor the Destroyer]

47 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

This is too early to even talk about it but what kind of previews to OW multiplier will TROS likely have? Under 5x like the last two sequels or over it like the spin-offs?

Under. This is the hyped finale and even Rogue One was barely ahead of 5x.

[cdsacken]

4 hours ago, RockyMountain said:

 

THe hardcore fans will be there regardless for this movie no matter how they felt about the previous movie. THe trick is to get the more casual fans in the theater on OW who don't necessarily make a hobby of talking about Star Wars online. That will be the difference between rather the movie makes just 180m OW or 210-230 OW. And to get that you need to get good reviews.

Did End Game get casual fans? You bet your ass. By the truck load.

 

I bet sales pick up even more. It's gonna be crazy. Just you watch.

Edited November 25, 2019 by cdsacken

[Porthos]

Switching topics...

 

Not only are Jumanji: The Next Level tickets still not on sale yet, but a bunch of theaters locally don't have showings booked yet.

 

Odd.  Would have figured they would have been released today (though there's still time in the day).  Maybe it'll be tomorrow.

 

Amusingly enough though, that Game Awards/Early Screening connected to Jumanji is up and running.  2:45pm Pacific showtime at one theater (Century Arden).

 

It's sold one ticket so far.  Which, to be fair, says nothing as I presume that Game Awards showing has hardly been marketed at all.

 

As for my plans on tracking it?  I was going to grit my teeth and double dip based on Shawn's forecasts, but those Trade tracking reports are giving me hella pause.  Whenever it does finally start, I'll probably do a quick scan of Sacto to see if it's worth my time.  If it indeed looks like a 50m opener, I won't bother.  But if there's some juice there, I'll go ahead and grit my teeth and just do it.

 

Could also just  Hobbs and Shaw it if it only takes a few minutes to track each night.  If I do end up tracking it, be curious to see how H&S holds up as a comp, even with the huge disparity in length of pre-sales.

Edited November 25, 2019 by Porthos

[PenguinHyphy]

15 hours ago, Eric Plus said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	165	9,100	30,741	29.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 144

 

Comp

4.784x of Once Upon’s final count (27.75M)

2.627x of It: Chapter Two (27.58M)

1.853x of Joker (24.65M)

13.056x of Maleficent (30.02M)

10.448x of Terminator (24.55M)

2.707x of Frozen II (23.01M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.777x of Lion King (17.86M)

3.685x of Hobbs & Shaw (21.38M)

 

This was a great day. This is the highest # of tickets sold since the first week of presales, and is a nice way to end the week. Obviously the fandom retrospective clip helped, so I do expect a decline tomorrow, but it's still strong results either way.

 

How many theaters are you using for your numbers? 

Edited November 25, 2019 by PenguinHyphy

[cdsacken]

Saw Jumanji trailer. Daughter had ZERO interest in it..I never even saw the first one. Looks horrific. No thank you. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1626

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1676

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8301	46	22870	36.30%	9	182

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1635

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1678

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8345	44	22870	36.49%	9	182

[keysersoze123]

Knives out Update

MTC1 Prev - overall 672 shows 12839/96344 168363.03 130074.20 2PM 11/25
MTC2 Prev - overall 585 shows 4417/71650 49905.00 212PM 11/25
MTC1 OD - overall 1366 shows 10761/203958 134057.75 107396.30 post 6PM 727 shows 6826/110756 88875.34 69393.82 210PM 11/25
MTC2 OD- overall 1219 shows 5166/168786 47734.00 post 6PM 510 shows 2662/70837 27887.00 230PM 11/25

 

Unfortunately PS is dismal for this. Also skewed heavily in large cities(early screenings did great in NYC). So MTC2 numbers especially looks horrific. I think its all going to be driven by walk ins. I am hoping for at least 1.5m previews and 25m over 5 days. But would be happy to see it go higher. But let us see where things are tomorrow.

[RockyMountain]

Well if Knives Out only makes 5 million dollars OW that will be 4.99m more than about ten youtube channels said it would make throughout the hundreds upon hundreds of Rian Johnson videos they made over the past two years.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Finally in the home stretch for TROS. I’ll be back on my bi-weekly updates (Wed/Sat) starting this week.