The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[VanillaSkies]

23 minutes ago, Movies4Life said:

Apparently, Box Office Mojo is listing the budget for Sonic The Hedgehog as $85M, not $95M as initially rumored: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl4244997633/?ref_=bo_hm_rs. Does this improve it’s box office chances now that it essentially cost the same as Birds Of Prey’s $84.5M budget?

What?
The cost of a film won't improve or impair a film's box office. 

It will only change the perception as to whether or not it's a successful invest for the studio. 

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

Sonic - MTC4 Opening Weekend Seat Report: T-1 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Shows Added	81
Seats Added	18,641
Seats Sold	2,149
	Shows	Seats Left	Total Seats	Matinee	Evening	Total Sold	Pct. Sold
D-0	86	9,643	10,497	-	854	854	8.14%
D-1	238	53,440	55,143	285	1,418	1,703	3.09%
D-2	331	63,562	64,757	880	315	1,195	1.85%
D-3	296	56,998	57,589	441	150	591	1.03%

 

 

Total sales have double in the last 20 hours.  Things are looking up.

I've done some digging and found that Sonic is playing on a bunch of screens that don't have reserved seats, even in theaters that have reserved seats for other movies.  I'm going to update my table to include how many shows there are in addition to the ones that can be tracked, just for some added context.  Should have those numbers in an hour or so.

[Menor the Destroyer]

42 minutes ago, cJS said:

Ohh. I thought you are talking about 18mn inc previews.

Well then it all changes.

Even accounting for kids tickets Friday ps is on track for 7 million+. 

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

Even accounting for kids tickets Friday ps is on track for 7 million+. 

really? That's more like 22mn true Friday easily. Alita did 3x.

[Menor the Destroyer]

14 minutes ago, cJS said:

really? That's more like 22mn true Friday easily. Alita did 3x.

Yeah, unless my ratio calculations are wrong. It should finish at about 230k tickets between the 2 MTC. Based on F2 ratios that would be close to 7.5-8 million in national ps, but being a smaller film I'd guess this is more MTC heavy. I think this will be more presale heavy than Alita though, it has hype from gamer crowds.

 

Edit: Do you know about how heavy Pikachu was? Based on old Pulse data it was more presale heavy than Alita. Presale heaviness was closer to Aladdin on Pulse. But I'm not sure if the Pulse data is reliable for this sort of calculation.

Edited February 13, 2020 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Bad Boys is a bad example, though...that both had a highly diverse audience who are the least likely to prebuy and a very late swell of interest (I mean, remember, people weren't predicting huge breakout til they were literally looking at Thursday previews).

 

For the record, here was BB3's Thurs/Fri audience breakdown...

"Friday's audience was led by African-Americans (43 percent), males (56 percent) and ticket buyers under the age of 35 (57 percent), according to PostTrak."

I am not comparing them as similar movies but movies with big PS. I did not think Sonic is so big that it has to have this big a PS. I dont remember seeing them in most anticipated for the year or anything. Normally kiddie flicks dont have big PS. I dont know if Pikachu was this big and that was in the anticipated list if I am not wrong. 

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, cJS said:

really? That's more like 22mn true Friday easily. Alita did 3x.

Alita Thursday OD, or Alita Fri? Both present some complications. 
 

If you can see Pika I would start there.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Alita Thursday OD, or Alita Fri? Both present some complications. 
 

If you can see Pika I would start there.

Alita Valentines Day.

Pika wasn't VD but 3x is okay to expect.

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, Menor said:

Do you know about how heavy Pikachu was

About 2.8x. Even with that, it's easily beating Pikachu as Pikachu true Friday was $14.875mn.

Edited February 13, 2020 by cJS

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, cJS said:

Alita Valentines Day.

Pika wasn't VD but 3x is okay to expect.

Alita actually isn't that sucky a compare b/c it also had the $4 Atom deal...although it was a much-less popular domestic franchise...and less kid-friendly...

[ZackM]

Sonic - MTC4 Opening Weekend Seat Report: T-1 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Shows Added	96	-	-	-	-
Seats Added	26,352	-	-	-	-
Seats Sold	2,892	-	-	-	-
	Shows w/o Reserved Seats	Shows w/ Reserved Seats	Seats Left	Total Seats	Matinee	Evening	Total Sold	Pct. Sold
D-0	209	82	9,518	10,347	-	829	829	8.01%
D-1	399	248	53,976	56,113	428	1,709	2,137	3.81%
D-2	549	337	66,408	67,835	1,038	389	1,427	2.10%
D-3	518	299	60,709	61,402	491	202	693	1.13%
Total	1,675	966	190,611	195,697	1,957	3,129	5086	2.60%

 

Updated with all MTC4 shows.

Edited February 13, 2020 by ZackM

[charlie Jatinder]

So 65 weekend and 75 4 days is almost there. Shouldn't have a problem reaching $160mn, that there is budget covered. Hopefully OS could cover release cost, which will need $200mn Approx.

[Eric Prime]

Sonic the Hedgehog Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	63	693	10,284	6.74%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 98

Total Seats Sold Today: 198

 

Comp

5.544x of Dora 1 day before release (6.93M)

9.000x of Abominable (5.85M)

3.193x of Addams Family (3.99M)

2.235x of Maleficent (5.14M)

0.295x of Frozen II (2.51M)

6.478x of Dolittle (5.72M)

 

Shoot, today was great. Now I'm on the breakout train.

[Eric Prime]

The Photograph Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	51	291	7,524	3.87%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 334

Total Seats Sold Today: 78

 

Comp

0.615x of Hustlers 1 day before release (1.54M)

1.626x of Black and Blue (1.1M)

1.244x of Harriet (746K)

1.626x of Just Mercy (1.3M)

1.070x of Like a Boss (1.07M)

0.128x of Bad Boys (812K)

 

Pretty disappointed with the numbers here. We'll see how tomorrow's walk-ups do.

[Eric Prime]

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-99 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	359	12,658	2.84%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 192

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

[DAJK]

16 minutes ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

The Photograph Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	51	291	7,524	3.87%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 334

Total Seats Sold Today: 78

 

Comp

0.615x of Hustlers 1 day before release (1.54M)

1.626x of Black and Blue (1.1M)

1.244x of Harriet (746K)

1.626x of Just Mercy (1.3M)

1.070x of Like a Boss (1.07M)

0.128x of Bad Boys (812K)

 

Pretty disappointed with the numbers here. We'll see how tomorrow's walk-ups do.

I can't see Photograph being anything BUT a walk-up heavy movie. Not gonna be surprised if it is something like another About Last Night (minus the a-list talent). 

9M opening day, 18M weekend, 40M domestic. 

 

Also your Sonic numbers are nuts. This really is going to be another Detective Pikachu isn't it?

[keysersoze123]

On 2/11/2020 at 7:37 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Sonic the hedgehog (T-2)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1198 shows 20223/192772 305491.07 246391.92 +4442
MTC2 Prev - overall 1542 shows 13544/231221 166909.05 118975.37 +3021
MTC1 D1 - overall 2255 shows 41490/389272 560205.36 455871.57 +12830
MTC2 D1 - overall 3034 shows 40985/483422 434845.86 345851.57 +11880
MTC1 D2 - overall 2479 shows 26078/413217 320802.21 280145.80 +8872
MTC2 D2 - overall 3089 shows 23809/490251 232642.45 196859.52 +6148

 

Thinking 20m+ OD can happen at this point. Let us see how PS moves in next 2 days. MTC1 still will add tons of shows by tomorrow. That would mean huge boost tomorrow. 

Sonic the hedgehog (T-1)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1512 shows 27613/235631 414979.05 334210.19 +7390
MTC2 Prev - overall 1783 shows 18799/256331 230628.34 164405.34 +5255
MTC1 OD - overall 3545 shows 63886/592581 855607.25 696350.93 +22396
MTC2 OD - overall 3511 shows 60404/548771 644493.47 511724.49 +19419
MTC1 D2 - overall 3562 shows 38544/592039 474017.35 413735.30 +12466
MTC2 D2 - overall 3515 shows 32911/549857 323916.70 274090.48 +9102

 

Good day but not as good as I expected 🙂 If the preview numbers double tomorrow it should be good for 3.5m. With better walkins even 4m can happen. OD is where the main action is and that had another good day though it tapered off a bit in the evening. Saturday PS is also very robust and what is great is MTC1/2 ratio which shows movie is playing strong in big cities and smaller cities overall. I will stick to 50m+ 3 day and 60m+ 4 day for now. 

[keysersoze123]

On 2/11/2020 at 10:27 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Photograph(T-2)

MTC1 Prev - overall 773 shows 4246/106148 57879.06 45388.27

MTC2 Prev - overall 855 shows 1631/112260 18874.91 13075.81

MTC1 OD - overall 1546 shows 17058/240368 229696.09 182355.43

MTC2 OD - overall 1612 shows 11688/222080 126669.82 92867.12

 

OD PS looks good to me. Looking like low 20's over 4 day weekend. 

Photograph(T-1) previews

MTC1 prev - overall 963 shows 6830/132886 91447.15 71357.72 +2584
MTC2 prev - overall 940 shows 2393/119901 27698.66 19183.80 +772

MTC1 OD - overall 1905 shows 26624/292669 357842.57 284372.31 +9566

MTC2 OD - overall 1634 shows 16327/225195 176917.28 130237.72 +4639

 

Not much action for previews. if it triples this number it will hit 800K previews. Let us see how walks up go tomorrow. 

 

Edit: updated with OD numbers and they are quite good. With good walkups I could see Photograph true friday > BOP True Friday !!!!!

Edited February 13, 2020 by keysersoze123

[TwoMisfits]

Birds of Prey Atom deal 5 for $35 is back...get them while you can!

 

PS - Someone beat me to this in another thread:)...but it should help float the next few days higher for the movie...

Edited February 13, 2020 by TwoMisfits

[john2000]

hey guys i know thats irrelevant,but any idea about when the onward presales start ?