The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cappoedameron]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Even if the books finally end during the early 2020s ?

The books are not going to end, the dude is going to die before he finishes them. 

 

He so far has made zero inclination that he's even done with the next book.

Edited February 12, 2020 by Cappoedameron

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Did you mean D-0+ D-1 “OD” or D-1 OD?

True Friday. I don't consider previews as part of OD.

 

That said, I'm a little worried that the hype among the fanbase will be driving up presales really high. It's possible that this could be a little more presale heavy. I guess the absolute worst case would be a 12 million OD (very very unlikely) if presales follow the normal pattern. I do wish we had Detective Pikachu nationwide data for a comp.

Edited February 12, 2020 by Menor

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/11/2020 at 1:56 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Sonic the Hedgehog Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

84

282

29.79%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

66

318

20.75%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
349	58	3938	8.86%	9	28

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.10M

Jumanji comp: 3.63M

Sonic the Hedgehog Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

89

282

31.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

77

318

24.21%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
444	95	4204	10.56%	9	30

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 266

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.44M

Jumanji comp: 3.48M

[MrGlass2]

19 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Even if the books finally end during the early 2020s ?

GoT is a TV franchise and will stay there for a while regardless. Only after the end of any possible TV spin-off(s) would a movie reboot be considered, whatever happens with the books. So not before a couple of decades.

2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.44M

Jumanji comp: 3.48M

Incredible numbers, you love to see it.

Edited February 12, 2020 by MrGlass2

[AdrianL]

The redesign really worked. Kudos, although I have no idea how that initial design passed. Had it stayed the same this would make less than what it's gonna do OW now. 

[TalismanRing]

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Start
Sonic			56/771	(5pm)	93/1499	(5pm)				5:00 PM
Downhill			15/410	(5pm)	15/410	(5pm)				6:00 PM
Photograph			28/760	(5pm)	29/410	(5pm)				5:00 PM

 

 

COMPS

 

Sonic   (increased from 3 to 6 screens)

Shazam: $4.25m

Toy Story 4: $4.79m

TLK: $4.82m

Abominable: $2.37m

Mal2: $4.03m

Frozen: $3.8m

Jumanji: $3.1m

Doolittle: $1.64m

 

Photograph

Black & Blue: $1.03m

Harriet: $.99m

Last Christmas: $1.39m

Just Mercy: $1.16m

 

Downhill

Downton Abbey: $,8m

A Beautiful Day: $.375m

Ford V Ferrari:  $.59m

Knives Out: $.59m

 

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by TalismanRing

[ZackM]

Sonic - MTC4 Opening Weekend Seat Report: T-1 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Shows Added	81
Seats Added	18,641
Seats Sold	2,149
	Shows	Seats Left	Total Seats	Matinee	Evening	Total Sold	Pct. Sold
D-0	86	9,643	10,497	-	854	854	8.14%
D-1	238	53,440	55,143	285	1,418	1,703	3.09%
D-2	331	63,562	64,757	880	315	1,195	1.85%
D-3	296	56,998	57,589	441	150	591	1.03%

 

 

Total sales have double in the last 20 hours.  Things are looking up.

[filmlover]

Still think Sonic doesn't look especially good even with the redesign but there's been a scarcity of family fare since Frozen (Spies in Disguise and Dolittle were mostly ignored) and it's a long holiday frame so it's on track to make a very nice sum of money this weekend. It's also gonna do much better than if it had stayed with that appalling original design.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, cJS said:

4 14 14 11

I always talk about true friday. May be I am too optimistic but data I am seeing is clear. Its bigger than Bad Boys even for Saturday PS. 

 

Also despite PS I dont see it stay flat on saturday despite VD. There is absolutely no history of a family movie staying flat in February. Plus the TMobile boost should play better during the weekend as friday is a school day. 

 

i will post updates detailed later but OD PS up to 107K. Probably will hit 130K today and then let us see how tomorrow goes. Probably not as high what I thought yesterday but still is looking good. 

[cdsacken]

So I paid for a upgrade of my LinkedIn profile and resume. Great results with one caveat. A high end match maker reached out to me 😂😂. I'm sure my wife will love that.

[Movies4Life]

Box Office Pro gives final opening weekend projections for Sonic The Hedgehog ($46M 3-day/$50-$60M 4-day): https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-sonic-the-hedgehog-tracking-for-possible-breakout-blumhouses-fantasy-island-the-photograph-aim-to-leverage-double-holiday-frame/.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I always talk about true friday. May be I am too optimistic but data I am seeing is clear. Its bigger than Bad Boys even for Saturday PS. 

 

Also despite PS I dont see it stay flat on saturday despite VD. There is absolutely no history of a family movie staying flat in February. Plus the TMobile boost should play better during the weekend as friday is a school day. 

 

i will post updates detailed later but OD PS up to 107K. Probably will hit 130K today and then let us see how tomorrow goes. Probably not as high what I thought yesterday but still is looking good. 

I get your enthusiasm, but it is still important to recognize that Sonic's gonna have more kid's tickets, especially on Saturday. Being higher on Bad Boys is commendable, but it doesn't automatically signal an opening bigger than it.

[Menor the Destroyer]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I always talk about true friday. May be I am too optimistic but data I am seeing is clear. Its bigger than Bad Boys even for Saturday PS. 

 

Also despite PS I dont see it stay flat on saturday despite VD. There is absolutely no history of a family movie staying flat in February. Plus the TMobile boost should play better during the weekend as friday is a school day. 

 

i will post updates detailed later but OD PS up to 107K. Probably will hit 130K today and then let us see how tomorrow goes. Probably not as high what I thought yesterday but still is looking good. 

If it indeed hits 130k today that would be amazing. 49k on Wednesday means it would have a good shot to add another 100k on Thursday and finish at 230k (!!!).

[TwoMisfits]

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I always talk about true friday. May be I am too optimistic but data I am seeing is clear. Its bigger than Bad Boys even for Saturday PS. 

 

Also despite PS I dont see it stay flat on saturday despite VD. There is absolutely no history of a family movie staying flat in February. Plus the TMobile boost should play better during the weekend as friday is a school day. 

 

i will post updates detailed later but OD PS up to 107K. Probably will hit 130K today and then let us see how tomorrow goes. Probably not as high what I thought yesterday but still is looking good. 

Bad Boys is a bad example, though...that both had a highly diverse audience who are the least likely to prebuy and a very late swell of interest (I mean, remember, people weren't predicting huge breakout til they were literally looking at Thursday previews).

 

For the record, here was BB3's Thurs/Fri audience breakdown...

"Friday's audience was led by African-Americans (43 percent), males (56 percent) and ticket buyers under the age of 35 (57 percent), according to PostTrak."

[Movies4Life]

Apparently, Box Office Mojo is listing the budget for Sonic The Hedgehog as $85M, not $95M as initially rumored: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl4244997633/?ref_=bo_hm_rs. Does this improve it’s box office chances now that it essentially cost the same as Birds Of Prey’s $84.5M budget?

[Eric the Fall Guy]

1 minute ago, Movies4Life said:

Apparently, Box Office Mojo is listing the budget for Sonic The Hedgehog as $85M, not $95M as initially rumored: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl4244997633/?ref_=bo_hm_rs. Does this improve it’s box office chances now that it essentially cost the same as Birds Of Prey’s $84.5M budget?

You...you just asked this question in the Sonic thread a couple minutes ago.

[Movies4Life]

1 minute ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

You...you just asked this question in the Sonic thread a couple minutes ago.

I know but, I’m asking it to the people tracking it’s opening weekend numbers in this part of the forums.

[Cappoedameron]

So we got a lot of sequels greenlit from last summer in May.

 

1. Detective Pikachu 2

2. John Wick 4

3. Godzilla vs Kong

and now Aladdin II.

 

 

Edited February 13, 2020 by Cappoedameron

[Menor the Destroyer]

20 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Bad Boys is a bad example, though...that both had a highly diverse audience who are the least likely to prebuy and a very late swell of interest (I mean, remember, people weren't predicting huge breakout til they were literally looking at Thursday previews).

 

For the record, here was BB3's Thurs/Fri audience breakdown...

"Friday's audience was led by African-Americans (43 percent), males (56 percent) and ticket buyers under the age of 35 (57 percent), according to PostTrak."

Bad Boys was selling really well even the day before. I agree that Sonic will likely be more presale heavy, but it's also looking like it will have significantly higher presales than Bad Boys did. Bad Boys sold 129k tickets between the 2 MTC by the end of Thursday, while Sonic will likely hit that number by the end of Wednesday and be above 200k by the end of Thursday.

Edited February 13, 2020 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I always talk about true friday. May be I am too optimistic but data I am seeing is clear. Its bigger than Bad Boys even for Saturday PS. 

Ohh. I thought you are talking about 18mn inc previews.

Well then it all changes.