The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cmasterclay]

4 minutes ago, Eric Quinn said:

Cool. Expectations change. And looking at the reviews, strong marketing muscle, and initial strong sales, my expectations changed. Maybe Delta isn’t the problem, but the collapse is still pretty weird IMO

My point was more that studios aren't going to cancel major release schedules on the backs of Free Guy, given what the expectations are for a movie like that in the first place. I also upped my predictions from 14 to 22, so a pretty significant jump. But if it does end up closer to 14, I don't think anything gets cancelled. I think we may have just seen a significant review bump

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm starting to think Black Widow might just be the only Marvel movie for this year. No way in hell those Shang-Chi tickets are going on sale next week. They can't do a dual release again thanks to ScarJo.

Johansson contract was in 2017, Shang-Chi was cast in 2019 and filmed in 2020, Disney+ was announced fall 2018 and launched fall 2019, we could imagine that contract by then fully took it into account and if not they should be able to strike a deal with those names (if they had large BO bonus to start with).

[Menor the Destroyer]

Shang-Chi showtimes are already up in Cinemark. No way they delay it this late. Even PA seems like it would be very late to do so. 

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, Menor said:

Shang-Chi showtimes are already up in Cinemark. No way they delay it this late. Even PA seems like it would be very late to do so. 

I mean, I think they’re going to hold firm especially since I predict that covid numbers a week before releases will be back down around 50k or so. But hypothetically if cases ride to like 350k instead, we know from last March that you can delay a movie with like 4 days left to go before it premiers, and just refund the sales.

Edited August 10, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I mean, I think they’re going to hold firm especially since I predict that covid numbers a week before releases will be back down around 50k or so. But hypothetically if cases ride to like 350k instead, we know from last March that you can delay a movie with like 4 days left to go before it premiers, and just refund the sales.

True, if we go into that kind of nightmare scenario then all bets are off. 

[keysersoze123]

I think we will see 200K in next few weeks and I doubt COVID will be down when Shang Chi opens but would movies get postponed considering lockdowns are unlikely?

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think we will see 200K in next few weeks and I doubt COVID will be down when Shang Chi opens but would movies get postponed considering lockdowns are unlikely?

no  indeed , as long as nationwide lockdowns dont happen nothing will move and again cases  by themselves dont mean much if deaths are low enough and if hospitalazions are also in a level that its ok and then we are good  , the good news in the death front is that they are very stable and very low if you make a comparison with some other periods of the pandemic you will see that even 3 months ago while cases were way lower than now deaths are almost on the same level, so thats an incredible good thing...... also i think that by mid-late aug a decline will start to happen if it follows past trends.

 

 

ps also vaccinations rates keep increasing

Edited August 10, 2021 by john2000

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think we will see 200K in next few weeks and I doubt COVID will be down when Shang Chi opens but would movies get postponed considering lockdowns are unlikely?

I think there’s more reason to postponements than strictly lockdowns. Clifford was vacated from September already. I imagine studios are looking at both current moviegoing climate and vaccine rates. If Shang-Chi bites the dust, that wouldn’t give studios hope and instead probably lead to contemplation of delays. If MCU can’t survive this landscape, what can?

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I think there’s more reason to postponements than strictly lockdowns. Clifford was vacated from September already. I imagine studios are looking at both current moviegoing climate and vaccine rates. If Shang-Chi bites the dust, that wouldn’t give studios hope and instead probably lead to contemplation of delays. If MCU can’t survive this landscape, what can?

 

The problem with more delays is this:

 

MOVIES ARE STILL BEING MADE RIGHT THIS MOMENT.

 

For a time in 2020, everything was shut down so more movies weren't being added to the backpile.

 

Now though, they are.

 

Can't delay things indefinitely.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The problem with more delays is this:

 

MOVIES ARE STILL BEING MADE RIGHT THIS MOMENT.

 

For a time in 2020, everything was shut down so more movies weren't being added to the backpile.

 

Now though, they are.

 

Can't delay things indefinitely.

that also applies to the world and the society in general.....

[AJG]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The problem with more delays is this:

 

MOVIES ARE STILL BEING MADE RIGHT THIS MOMENT.

 

PUT THAT SHIT ON NETFLIX!

 

No one out here is trying to leave their home to see five sequels to The Exorcist.

[Krissykins]

11 minutes ago, AJG said:

No one out here is trying to leave their home to see five sequels to The Exorcist.

[Inceptionzq]

On 8/9/2021 at 3:39 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Free Guy Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

37

214

17.29%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

63

421

14.96%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
258	45	7531	3.43%	14	40

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 178

 

Jungle Cruise comp: 2.68M

Free Guy Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

43

214

20.09%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

68

421

16.15%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
312	54	8298	3.76%	14	46

 

Showings added: 6

Seats added: 767

 

Jungle Cruise comp: 2.43M

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

47 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The problem with more delays is this:

 

MOVIES ARE STILL BEING MADE RIGHT THIS MOMENT.

 

For a time in 2020, everything was shut down so more movies weren't being added to the backpile.

 

Now though, they are.

 

Can't delay things indefinitely.

Yep and also I think that somewhat plays into the indecision returning to theaters. Studios will still have 2020 films in 2022. 2021 is majority backloaded of 2020 films so there's some staleness. Of course F9 hit and so did Quiet Place but Fast fmaily is loyal and Quiet Place is a conceptual experience. Look at Free Guy, that's been on the shelf for 2 years. Respect had a teaser December 2019.

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Yep and also I think that somewhat plays into the indecision returning to theaters. Studios will still have 2020 films in 2022. 2021 is majority backloaded of 2020 films so there's some staleness. Of course F9 hit and so did Quiet Place but Fast fmaily is loyal and Quiet Place is a conceptual experience. Look at Free Guy, that's been on the shelf for 2 years. Respect had a teaser December 2019.

in other words the moviea that had already a pre existing fanbase or a hook like fast9,black widow , a quite place 2 , conjuring 3  didnt have a problem and did very good at the box office ( some better than others)  .... while movies like free guy will struggle...anyways lets see how it will unfold..

Edited August 10, 2021 by john2000

[john2000]

guys i wanna ask a question as i am a little confused the preview comps for free guy seem to be all over the place to me, what is even the range that we are looking at 1,5-2,5 ?

[CJohn]

I will be absolutely shocked if Shang-Chi comes out only in theaters, and even more shocked if studios not named WB keep their big tentpole movies on their current dates in the Fall.

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I will be absolutely shocked if Shang-Chi comes out only in theaters, and even more shocked if studios not named WB keep their big tentpole movies on their current dates in the Fall.

and what, delay again ? and who says that the next date will be any different ....noone...

Edited August 10, 2021 by john2000

[ChipDerby]

I have no idea why movie studios aren't putting out vaccine campaigns. You'd think if sales continue on this trend they'd do something, but nope.

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I will be absolutely shocked if Shang-Chi comes out only in theaters, and even more shocked if studios not named WB keep their big tentpole movies on their current dates in the Fall.

Cientists are saying for some time Delta will peak in August and get better by October on US.

 

Even if studios move their tentpoles i doubt it will be for more than a month maximum just to wait the infections numbers start to drop. There's absolutely no point of throwing everything to 2022, from what we know Covid will still be there anyway.

 

At this point the only big movie right in the middle of the expected peak is Shang Chi, and even this one doesn't look like it's going to be delayed.