The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cooper Legion]

Yeah, the review drop complicates stuff but it's also the case that V2 has no review bump coming up to compensate 😆

[WrathOfHan]

I'm still sticking with the 7-8M for Venom previews atm, which would be this if it follows the first:

 

7.5M Previews

16.9M Friday (24.4M Full Friday/3.25x Previews)

19.8M Saturday (-19%)

16M (-19%)

60.2M Weekend

 

I would expect a harsher Saturday/Sunday drop and/or more frontloading from previews since this is a sequel, so it'd probably fall around 50-55M rather than 60M

[Cooper Legion]

-20% was from a holiday. More like 40 for this one

[Menor the Destroyer]

34 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

Yeah, the review drop complicates stuff but it's also the case that V2 has no review bump coming up to compensate 😆

Also not sure where you are getting 100% of SC pace from MTC1. SC did 7k in a bit over two days (Sunday night - Tuesday morning, with review drop on Monday). V2 did 6k in significantly more than two days (Monday morning-ish - Wednesday night). 

[Cooper Legion]

23 minutes ago, Menor said:

Also not sure where you are getting 100% of SC pace from MTC1. SC did 7k in a bit over two days (Sunday night - Tuesday morning, with review drop on Monday). V2 did 6k in significantly more than two days (Monday morning-ish - Wednesday night). 

Got SC 10-7 at about $150k or $50k/day from @charlie Jatinder sheet.

 

Didn't realize the V2 t-10 was from 9AM, thanks for pointing that out. Makes the numbers even worse.   

 

If it runs like 80% of SC from here that wouldn't be bad per se (certainly kills my club) but I struggle to see where Keyser is getting 9 either.

Edited September 23, 2021 by Legion of the Ten Crores

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Dear Eric Hansen said:

Dear Evan Hansen Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	21	169	4964	3.40%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 468

Total Seats Sold Today: 21

 

Comp

0.311x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-2 (2.4M)

0.710x of Jungle Cruise T-2 (1.92M)

1.565x of Respect T-2 (1.02M)

 

0.173x of In the Heights' Thu+Fri Wednesday Before Release (865K)

Dear Evan Hansen Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	210	5306	3.96%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 342

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

0.263x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-1 (2.03M)

0.214x of In the Heights' Thu+Fri Wednesday Before Release (1.07M)

0.671x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (1.81M)

1.154x of Respect T-1 (750K)

 

Yeah momentum for this is nonexistent. In the Heights had the exact same issue, so...God I can't wait for October to roll around.

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Dear Eric Hansen said:

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	890	19404	4.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

0.951x of F9 T-9 (6.75M)

0.375x of Black Widow T-9 (4.95M)

2.657x of The Suicide Squad T-9 (10.89M)

0.674x of Shang-Chi T-9 (5.94M)

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	962	19404	4.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 72

 

Comp

0.960x of F9 T-8 (6.82M)

0.383x of Black Widow T-8 (5.06M)

2.505x of The Suicide Squad T-8 (10.27M)

0.683x of Shang-Chi T-8 (6.01M)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Dear Eric Hansen said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	509	14170	3.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 33

 

Comp

0.766x of F9 T-16 (5.44M)

0.296x of Black Widow T-16 (3.91M)

2.166x of The Suicide Squad T-16 (8.88M)

0.721x of Shang-Chi T-16 (6.34M)

 

Yeah, pretty poor day overall, even with good comp rises for Bond. But eh, these days happen from time to time, so you might as well roll with the punches and hope things bounce back quick.

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	532	14170	3.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp

0.758x of F9 T-15 (5.38M)

0.301x of Black Widow T-15 (3.97M)

2.136x of The Suicide Squad T-15 (8.76M)

0.642x of Shang-Chi T-15 (5.65M)

[filmlover]

DEH apparently carries a budget of less than $30M, so even with similar opening numbers to ITH, there's a 0% chance it ends up being the major financial loss that was. Still not good numbers since it'll feed into the "another failed stage adaptation" narrative, but I'm not sure much more could be expected for a movie that never seemed able to generate any positive press during the journey from announcement to release.

[keysersoze123]

58 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

Got SC 10-7 at about $150k or $50k/day from @charlie Jatinder sheet.

 

Didn't realize the V2 t-10 was from 9AM, thanks for pointing that out. Makes the numbers even worse.   

 

If it runs like 80% of SC from here that wouldn't be bad per se (certainly kills my club) but I struggle to see where Keyser is getting 9 either.

All I would say is I dont like MCU comps. MCU has very mature fanbase that helps with its PS at this point. Venom is more niche. So I am only looking at F9 comps at this point. Its looking great. Not just with ticket sales but also with average ticket price. We will know for sure next week.

[Rorschach]

Dear Evan Hansen (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

IMAX showings:

9:00: 0/388

2D showings: 31/235

7:00 P.M. (Live Q&A w/ Cast): 11/141

8:00 P.M.: 20/94

Total Sold: 31/623 (4.98% sold)

 

Friday:

IMAX showings: 0/776

2:05 P.M.: 0/388

8:45 P.M.: 0/388

2D showings: 52/952

12:20 P.M.: 3/238

3:40 P.M.: 6/238

7:00 P.M.: 43/238

10:20 P.M.: 0/238

Total Sold: 52/1,728 (3.01% sold)

Thurs + Fri: 83/1,901 (4.37% sold)

 

I don't really feel like doing comps for this one, because none of the ones I have feel remotely applicable with this film. In The Heights is probably the only appropriate comparison but that was released a month before I started regularly tracking films. So RIP me. 

 

Unrelated, but the idea of Old Man Platt's face expanded across a towering IMAX screen is amusing to think about.

Edited September 23, 2021 by Rorschach

[Cooper Legion]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

All I would say is I dont like MCU comps. MCU has very mature fanbase that helps with its PS at this point. Venom is more niche. So I am only looking at F9 comps at this point. Its looking great. Not just with ticket sales but also with average ticket price. We will know for sure next week.

You seem to think the MCU is more fanheavy than it really is. This was an issue around this time in SC run iirc. SC isn't a perfect comp by any means, I think it will improve on a straight SC comp for sure though. F9 may be an issue in the other direction though.

 

Anyway, agree on bolded. Not that interested in this movie to begin with, so "wait and see" sounds like a good way to go.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

Got SC 10-7 at about $150k or $50k/day from @charlie Jatinder sheet.

There's a lot of estimation done in those numbers for hours adjustments, etc. Not advisable to check pace especially for two days. 

[Cooper Legion]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

There's a lot of estimation done in those numbers for hours adjustments, etc. Not advisable to check pace especially for two days. 

I know there's estimated hour adjustment, but that makes it better to check pace rather than worse (though gotta make sure hours are lined up for the other movie, which I forgot about here). And it was over 3 days, so some decent averaging out of errors.    

 

Could try an average pace over like 5 or 7 days instead to smooth out even more, but then you're getting different parts of the U curve and have more stale data so it's harder to capture recent movement. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	136	20744	21379	635	2.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

73

 

Day Five Comp           

	%		Sold Day 5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	99.37		56	639		0/93	13462/14101	4.53%		7.39m

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Day Five Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	174.86		24	362		2/28	981/1343	26.95%		8.79m
NTTD (adj)	---		72	633		0/136	20596/21229	2.98%		---

COMP NOTE: The AQP II Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Regal: 134/6648 [2.02% sold] [+7 tickets]

 

===

 

T-x comps starting tomorrow...

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	136	20705	21379	674	3.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

39

 

T-15 Comp           

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	75.06		71	898		0/91	13252/14150	6.35%		5.58m

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9's tickets have been on sale for three days longer than No Time to Die.

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-15 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	146.09		31	460		5/38	1399/1859	24.74%		7.34m
NTTD (adj)	---		39	672		0/136	20557/21229	3.17%		---

PRE-SALE NOTE: AQP II's tickets have been on sale for two days longer than No Time to Die.

COMP NOTE: The AQP II Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Regal: 144/6648 [2.17% sold] [+10 tickets]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	168	26691	28050	1262	4.84%

 

Total Showings Added Today	12
Total Seats Sold Today	1972
Total Seats Sold Today	97

 

T-9 Comp         

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	91.09		122	1492		0/108	15995/17487	8.53%		8.02m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi 

 

T-9 Adjusted Comp           

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	104.33		81	1223		0/80	11347/12570	9.73%		7.76m
BW	41.44		171	3079		0/122	16185/19264	15.98%		5.73m
V2 (adj)	---		95	1276		0/153	24397/25673	4.97%		---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2 while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2. 

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's and F9's track.

 

Regal: 267/9194 [2.90% sold] [+26 tickets]

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	168	26584	28050	1466	5.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

107

 

T-8 Comp         

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	89.34		149	1641		0/108	15846/17487	9.38%		7.86m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Venom 2's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Shang-Chi 

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp           

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	104.08		100	1323		0/84	11791/13114	10.09%		7.74m
BW	40.54		204	3473		0/151	19486/22959	15.13%		5.60m
V2 (F9 adj)	---		101	1377		0/153	24296/25673	5.36%		---
V2 (BW adj)	---		107	1408		0/159	24911/26319	5.35%		---

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for five days more than Venom 2 while F9 was on sale for one more day than Venom 2. 

COMP NOTE:  Both the BW and the F9 comps has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track while V2 (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

Regal: 280/9194 [3.05% sold] [+13 tickets]

[SpiderByte]

10 hours ago, Dear Eric Hansen said:

Yeah momentum for this is nonexistent. In the Heights had the exact same issue, so...God I can't wait for October to roll around.

Will never not be upset In The Heights bombed. It's so fucking good and should have (still might, with recent reports) catapulted everyone in that cast into stars

Edited September 23, 2021 by SpiderByte

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/22/2021 at 9:17 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Dear Evan Hansen	Jacksonville	6	8	1,147	56	13	4.88%
		Phoenix	6	13	1,949	45	12	2.31%
		Raleigh	6	7	896	44	11	4.91%
	Dear Evan Hansen Total		18	28	3,992	145	36	3.63%
	Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A)	Jacksonville	3	3	345	19	2	5.51%
		Phoenix	4	4	548	40	0	7.30%
		Raleigh	4	4	462	15	-1	3.25%
	DEH (Q&A) Total		11	11	1,355	74	1	5.46%
T-14	No Time to Die (Wed)	Jacksonville	3	3	1,046	28	3	2.68%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	2	0	0.49%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	53	6	35.10%
	No Time to Die (Wed) Total		5	5	1,607	83	9	5.16%
T-15	No Time to Die	Jacksonville	7	59	10,119	140	5	1.38%
		Phoenix	6	31	5,132	95	13	1.85%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,725	119	10	3.19%
	No Time to Die Total		20	120	18,976	354	28	1.87%
T-8	Venom 2	Jacksonville	6	67	10,185	239	35	2.35%
		Phoenix	6	48	8,848	335	16	3.79%
		Raleigh	7	39	4,749	214	17	4.51%
	Venom 2 Total		19	154	23,782	788	68	3.31%

 

DEH comps

In the Heights - .508x (508k)

 

I went back to confirm the 1m previews from my sheet and found this in Deadline's article from that week:

 

 

The lack of PLF screens for DEH may be a big factor and pull it down from that comp even more.  

 

Venom comps

TSS - 2.3x (9.45m)

F9 - .875x (6.2m)

SC - .72x (6.38m)

 

Average - 7.35m

 

No Time to Die comps

F9 - .654x (4.65m)

TSS - 1.49x (6.12m)

 

Average - 5.38m

Average with Wed added - 6.65m

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Dear Evan Hansen	Jacksonville	6	9	1,536	70	14	4.56%
		Phoenix	7	15	1,790	59	16	3.30%
		Raleigh	6	10	1,293	66	22	5.10%
	Dear Evan Hansen Total		19	34	4,619	195	52	4.22%
	Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A)	Jacksonville	3	3	345	19	0	5.51%
		Phoenix	4	4	548	42	2	7.66%
		Raleigh	4	4	462	13	-2	2.81%
	DEH (Q&A) Total		11	11	1,355	74	0	5.46%
T-13	No Time to Die (Wed)	Jacksonville	3	3	1,046	29	1	2.77%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	2	0	0.49%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	56	3	37.09%
	No Time to Die (Wed) Total		5	5	1,607	87	4	5.41%
T-14	No Time to Die	Jacksonville	7	59	10,119	147	7	1.45%
		Phoenix	6	31	5,132	106	11	2.07%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,725	147	28	3.95%
	No Time to Die Total		20	120	18,976	400	46	2.11%
T-7	Venom 2	Jacksonville	6	69	10,781	263	24	2.44%
		Phoenix	6	56	9,820	363	28	3.70%
		Raleigh	7	41	5,139	232	18	4.51%
	Venom 2 Total		19	166	25,740	858	70	3.33%

 

DEH keeps falling further behind ITH the closer we get.  Comp is down to 445k for previews.  

 

Venom 2 comps

TSS - 2.167x (8.88m)

F9 - .89x (6.31m)

SC - .73x (6.46m

Average - 7.22m

 

No Time to Die comps

F9 - .7x (4.98m)

TSS - 1.62x (6.64m)

Average - 5.81m

Average incl Wed - 7.07m

 

*note: one theater in Phoenix wouldn't load future charts (NTtD & Venom) on Fandango or the corp site so I just pulled forward those sales.

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Dear Evan Hansen	Jacksonville	6	9	1,536	70	14	4.56%
		Phoenix	7	15	1,790	59	16	3.30%
		Raleigh	6	10	1,293	66	22	5.10%
	Dear Evan Hansen Total		19	34	4,619	195	52	4.22%
	Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A)	Jacksonville	3	3	345	19	0	5.51%
		Phoenix	4	4	548	42	2	7.66%
		Raleigh	4	4	462	13	-2	2.81%
	DEH (Q&A) Total		11	11	1,355	74	0	5.46%

 

DEH keeps falling further behind ITH the closer we get.  Comp is down to 445k for previews.  

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Late	Dear Evan Hansen	Jacksonville	6	9	1,536	80	10	5.21%
		Phoenix	7	15	1,790	89	30	4.97%
		Raleigh	7	10	1,293	75	9	5.80%
	DEH Total		20	34	4,619	244	49	5.28%
	Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A)	Jacksonville	3	3	345	20	1	5.80%
		Phoenix	4	4	548	39	-3	7.12%
		Raleigh	4	4	462	17	4	3.68%
	DEH (Q&A) Total		11	11	1,355	76	2	5.61%

 

Same day sales are among the worst of any I've tracked.  I'd guess that means walk-ups will be pretty poor.

 

Movie	T-1 Hour	Morning	Increase
Dear Evan Hansen (Q&A)	76	74	2.70%
Dear Evan Hansen (Tot)	320	269	18.96%
Respect (Fandango)	393	319	23.20%
Dear Evan Hansen	244	195	25.13%
F9: The Fast Saga	3836	3057	25.48%
Black Widow	7362	5791	27.13%
Roadrunner	184	138	33.33%
Shang-Chi	4099	3012	36.09%
Zola (Tuesday)	104	72	44.44%
Free Guy	869	573	51.66%
Suicide Squad	1958	1267	54.54%
The Green Knight	557	355	56.90%
Jungle Cruise	1102	682	61.58%
Respect	243	150	62.00%
Snake Eyes	687	414	65.94%
The Protégé	117	70	67.14%
Boss Baby 2	456	259	76.06%
Candyman	930	517	79.88%
The Forever Purge	402	222	81.08%
Escape Room 2	454	247	83.81%
Stillwater	134	67	100.00%
Old	660	328	101.22%
Don't Breathe 2	376	171	119.88%
The Night House	93	40	132.50%

Edited September 23, 2021 by katnisscinnaplex
Fix header

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

196

2151

9.11%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

120

2533

4.74%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
846	79	25391	3.33%	15	135

 

Showings added: 16

Seats added: 2814

 

AMCs sold	557
Cinemarks sold	136
Regals sold	85
Harkins sold	68

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.65M

Black Widow comp: 5.10M

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

198

2151

9.21%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

127

2637

4.82%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
906	60	25495	3.55%	15	137

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 104

 

AMCs sold	585
Cinemarks sold	162
Regals sold	87
Harkins sold	72

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.62M

Black Widow comp: 5.07M