The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

11 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

 

What is happening to Mid90s? It has a rocketing high Thursday number.

 

2354	2018-10-25	THU	Mid90s
644	2018-10-26	FRI	Mid90s
248	2018-10-27	SAT	Mid90s
102	2018-10-28	SUN	Mid90s

The POWAH of Lucas Hedges

 

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Spagspiria said:

At my nearby art house, FREE SOLO is overshadowing so much it isn’t funny. The Saturday matinee has sold more than all of MID90s’ shows combined.

Beautiful Boy is actually selling much better here and was put in one of the smallest auditoriums while Mid90s was put in one of the biggest. Perhaps they should've traded places. Speaking of which...

 

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

The POWAH of Lucas Hedges

 

I'm seeing Beautiful Boy tomorrow (or make that today since it's past midnight). Control your jealousy, CE.

[Porthos]

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	94	12105	13377	9.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:       49 

 

.2053x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after ten days of pre-sales.

.1818x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 21 ten before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6187x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 21 days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.7430x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 21 days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.3737x as many tickets sold as Solo after ten days of pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.8566x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after ten days of pre-sales (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

 

[Starting on Sunday, "X days before the release" will be the comp for all movies]

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-21 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	6	940	1399	32.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      11

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-21 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	88	11165	11978	6.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      38

 

===

 

Couldn't get info on a couple of theaters tonight, either via Fandango or their own website.  I'll edit in the adjusted numbers, if any, if I can get the theater info before I check out for the night

[el sid]

7 hours ago, gravestonedt said:

any solid evidence to show Hunter Killer having issues with reaching 10 million OW?

Fandango Pulse is showing a lot of Michael Myers masks and Star is Born vs Hunter Killer.

can this flip like Chappaquiddick and do like 7x+ previews on Friday and onward...?

I don't completely exclude that it reaches this mark. With the last(?) update yesterday Hunter Killer finally entered the Top 5 of MT. 
#1 Halloween 29.5%
#2 ASIB 17.2%
#3 Venom 6.6%
#4 Goosebumps 2 4.8%
#5 Hunter Killer 3.8%

Hunter Killer had at Pulse ca. 60% of Peppermint in the evening (where I live). With a little Butler-bonus...it could maybe reach 10M or come close.

Edited October 26, 2018 by el sid

[dxmatrixdt]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunter_Killer_(film)

 

it is at 0.48 on Wikipedia, that would give ~ $240 avg. @ 2,000 screens.  ~ 240-250 ppl/per

[Eric Duncan]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,890	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
*4pm-12am

 

 

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
Bohemian	1035	1049	1547	1591
Nutcracker	191	204	239	287
Nobodys Fool	39	46	37	55
The Grinch	153	192	188	162
Spider's Web	0	0	24	12
Overlord	18	15	15	6
Fantastic Beasts	1018	769	891	924
Instant Family	0	4	15	6
Creed II	0	0	0	5
Green Book	0	1	0	4

Edited October 26, 2018 by CoolEric258

[Finnick]

Boxofficepro long range for Christmas movies

 

12/14/2018	Mortal Engines	$16,000,000		$55,000,000			Universal
12/14/2018	The Mule	$14,000,000		$80,000,000			Warner Bros.
12/14/2018	Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse	$22,000,000		$90,000,000			Sony / Columbia
12/19/2018	Mary Poppins Returns	$40,000,000	NEW	$350,000,000	NEW		Disney
12/21/2018	Aquaman	$45,000,000	NEW	$175,000,000	NEW		Warner Bros.
12/21/2018	Bumblebee	$20,000,000	NEW	$100,000,000	NEW		Paramount
12/21/2018	Second Act	$7,000,000	NEW	$40,000,000	NEW		STX

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-mary-poppins-returns-aquaman-bumblebee/

 

Mary Poppins Returns
Opening 3-Day Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million

 

Aquaman
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

 

Bumblebee
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

Edited October 26, 2018 by EarlyDeadlinePredictions

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-mary-poppins-returns-aquaman-bumblebee/

 

Mary Poppins Returns
Opening 3-Day Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million

 

Aquaman
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

 

Bumblebee
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

 

All ranges make sense. A lot will depend on reviews in the end I feel. If Aquaman gets the "Very fun to watch" reviews and around a 80%, it will probably do 60/250. Bumblebee will be the most review dependent of the bunch.

 

All the movies will get 5-6x legs if good. It's a pretty clear 4 week run for all of them. There's a reason the week ending the 21st is the big week for release this year, the releases will pretty much do opening Saturday level numbers for a full 12 days at least.

[raulbalarezo]

11 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-mary-poppins-returns-aquaman-bumblebee/

 

Mary Poppins Returns
Opening 3-Day Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million

 

Aquaman
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

 

Bumblebee
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

12/19/2018	Mary Poppins Returns	$40,000,000	NEW	$350,000,000	NEW		Disney
12/21/2018	Aquaman	$45,000,000	NEW	$175,000,000	NEW		Warner Bros.
12/21/2018	Bumblebee	$20,000,000	NEW	$100,000,000	NEW		Paramoun

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

All ranges make sense. A lot will depend on reviews in the end I feel. If Aquaman gets the "Very fun to watch" reviews and around a 80%, it will probably do 60/250. Bumblebee will be the most review dependent of the bunch.

 

All the movies will get 5-6x legs if good. It's a pretty clear 4 week run for all of them. There's a reason the week ending the 21st is the big week for release this year, the releases will pretty much do opening Saturday level numbers for a full 12 days at least.

I think all the big Dec 2018 (MP, AM, SV, BB) releases have gotten good buzz so far in terms of test screenings and footage shown closed doors. 

[ThomasNicole]

14 minutes ago, Finnick said:

Boxofficepro long range for Christmas movies

 

12/14/2018	Mortal Engines	$16,000,000		$55,000,000			Universal
12/14/2018	The Mule	$14,000,000		$80,000,000			Warner Bros.
12/14/2018	Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse	$22,000,000		$90,000,000			Sony / Columbia
12/19/2018	Mary Poppins Returns	$40,000,000	NEW	$350,000,000	NEW		Disney
12/21/2018	Aquaman	$45,000,000	NEW	$175,000,000	NEW		Warner Bros.
12/21/2018	Bumblebee	$20,000,000	NEW	$100,000,000	NEW		Paramount
12/21/2018	Second Act	$7,000,000	NEW	$40,000,000	NEW		STX

Mary Poppins seems right [i personally think it could do + $ 400M]

 

Aquaman is really conservative... should do around $ 230 - 260M

[Jonwo]

14 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

All ranges make sense. A lot will depend on reviews in the end I feel. If Aquaman gets the "Very fun to watch" reviews and around a 80%, it will probably do 60/250. Bumblebee will be the most review dependent of the bunch.

 

All the movies will get 5-6x legs if good. It's a pretty clear 4 week run for all of them. There's a reason the week ending the 21st is the big week for release this year, the releases will pretty much do opening Saturday level numbers for a full 12 days at least.

I reckon Aquaman will be closer to $70-74m if buzz is strong. I mentioned on the weekend thread that Aquaman should move up to the 19th. 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I reckon Aquaman will be closer to $70-74m if buzz is strong. I mentioned on the weekend thread that Aquaman should move up to the 19th. 

Christmas usually leads to more spaced out grosses so Aquaman could debut to $60M over the 3 day and still make $200M+.

[DAJK]

That Poppins forecast is GOD. Don't disagree with it at all. Disney should really capitalize on their live-action remake goldmine until they inevitable run out of properties to re-make  

 

Think Aquaman will go over 200. Bumblebee seems like a fair prediction so far, but I'm confident the movie will be well-received (relatively speaking) so I wouldn't be surprised at a 30/120 run or something a bit higher. 

[el sid]

Not that it would become very interesting this weekend but maybe good for some comparisons in the following weeks...

Pulse 6 hours ago (always 8:35-8:49 EST) :
Hunter Killer: 47/15 - yesterday it were 11 sold tickets at the same time of the day
Bohemian Rhapsody: 22/15
FB 2: 16/15
The Nutcracker: 4/15

And 4 hours ago (always 10:40-10:49 EST) :
Hunter Killer: 86/10 minutes - so at least both times much better than yesterday, yesterday it had 24 at the same time of the day and that in 15 minutes; 5.0% at MT now

Indivisible: 13/10
Bohemian Rhapsody: 28/10
FB 2: 16/10
The Nutcracker: 4/10

 

Saw that Creed II (12) and Robin Hood (3) sold some tickets too . Did I overlook Ralph 2?

Edited October 26, 2018 by el sid

[Porthos]

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	94	12055	13377	9.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:       50 

 

.2117x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after eleven days of pre-sales.

.1818x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 20 days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

[Missing Data for Black Panther for the next couple of days]

.7369x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 20 days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.3831x as many tickets sold as Solo after eleven days of pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.8641x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after eleven days of pre-sales (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

 

[Starting on Sunday, "X days before the release" will be the comp for all movies]

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-20 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	6	932	1399	33.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                       8

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-20 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	88	11123	11978	7.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      42

Edited October 27, 2018 by Porthos

[Valonqar]

what's the tracking for Creed 2? 

[filmlover]

41 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

what's the tracking for Creed 2? 

Tracking for the Thanksgiving weekend openers doesn't come in until next week.

[Valonqar]

9 hours ago, filmlover said:

Tracking for the Thanksgiving weekend openers doesn't come in until next week.

Ah, OK! Thanks!