The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TalismanRing]

59 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

 

A Star Is Dead. 

That was always the other half of the story

 

[MaxAggressor]

https://deadline.com/2018/10/moviegoers-do-the-fandango-as-bohemian-rhapsody-outpaces-a-star-is-born-in-advance-ticket-sales-freddie-mercury-biopic-eyes-40m-potential-start-1202492220/

 

The appeal for the band Queen is multi-generational, and doesn’t just pertain to the original hippie-turned-yuppie fans of the 1970s into 1980s, but extends to the core fans’ sons and daughters, and ultimately, yes, their grandchildren. Talk about demand: Exhibitors have been ringing up Fox for extra screens, and we hear that Bohemian Rhapsody is now looking at a footprint of 4,000 theaters or more.

 

So it comes as no surprise to hear that Bohemian Rhapsody is already Fandango’s highest advance ticket seller of the year for a movie musical, besting Warner Bros.’/Live Nation’s A Star Is Born and Universal’s Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again at the same time  in their sales cycle. Conservative expectations is that Bohemian Rhapsody opens to $35M, but it’s a no brainer if it sails past $40M per industry sources.

[Eric Duncan]

Also of note from that DL article:

 

Nutcracker: 27M (above the projections from a couple weeks ago)

Nobody's Fool: mid-to-high teens

Halloween: 17M (I have my doubts about that, but okay)

[dxmatrixdt]

will be interested to see if a HD leak of Bohemian in the coming days will affect OW.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Halloween: 17M (I have my doubts about that, but okay)

lmao

[dxmatrixdt]

12 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

So it comes as no surprise to hear that Bohemian Rhapsody is already Fandango’s highest advance ticket seller of the year for a movie musical, besting Warner Bros.’/Live Nation’s A Star Is Born and Universal’s Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again at the same time  in their sales cycle. Conservative expectations is that Bohemian Rhapsody opens to $35M, but it’s a no brainer if it sails past $40M per industry sources.

it should be good for headline diversity too that an all-male musical will break 40 and be #1 in 2018

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Also of note from that DL article:

 

Nutcracker: 27M (above the projections from a couple weeks ago)

Nobody's Fool: mid-to-high teens

Halloween: 17M (I have my doubts about that, but okay)

yeha, Nutcracker will challenge 30M. that much is obvious by now. reverse AWIT. Where AWIT fell short of tracking, Nutcracker will exceed. It may open above AWIT since it looks like AIW but with much more charismatic female lead (though minus Depp). 

[MCKillswitch123]

I strongly hope that this weekend is as good as that prediction makes it out to be.

[dxmatrixdt]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

yeha, Nutcracker will challenge 30M. that much is obvious by now. reverse AWIT. Where AWIT fell short of tracking, Nutcracker will exceed. It may open above AWIT since it looks like AIW but with much more charismatic female lead (though minus Depp). 

all the female tracking w/ Nutcracker could easily go to Bohemian though....

Nobody's Fool was filmed in April, who knows where that will go.

I wouldn't be surprised if Bohemian went up, and Nutcracker went down + The Grinch next weekend could kill Nutcracker.

[DAJK]

9 minutes ago, gravestonedt said:

it should be good for headline diversity too that an all-male musical will break 40 and be #1 in 2018

There's not going to be any controversy there is there?

 

Given some of the people in my Pixar class and stuff they've said, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a small vocal minority who will make some stink about no lead female actors playing any prominent band members. 

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, gravestonedt said:

all the female tracking w/ Nutcracker could easily go to Bohemian though....

Nobody's Fool was filmed in April, who knows where that will go.

I wouldn't be surprised if Bohemian went up, and Nutcracker went down + The Grinch next weekend could kill Nutcracker.

Possible though Nutcracker could find a nice niche with girl audience that hasn't had a Princess movie since BatB. so I don't think Grinch will kill it unless it's truly awful and incomprehensible (I still don't know WTF is the movie about except that Clara enters an alternate realm and has to fight Keira Knightley and Helen Mirren but why?). 

[dxmatrixdt]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

There's not going to be any controversy there is there?

 

Given some of the people in my Pixar class and stuff they've said, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a small vocal minority who will make some stink about no lead female actors playing any prominent band members. 

I think it would depend if the controversy surfaces or not.  Will the controversy make a mark on what is epistemological and what isn't?  I don't think the flag thing in First Man made it out past BOT

Edited October 30, 2018 by gravestonedt

[dxmatrixdt]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Possible though Nutcracker could find a nice niche with girl audience that hasn't had a Princess movie since BatB. so I don't think Grinch will kill it unless it's truly awful and incomprehensible (I still don't know WTF is the movie about except that Clara enters an alternate realm and has to fight Keira Knightley and Helen Mirren but why?). 

I don't think Nutcrackers is mainstream at all, but is Alice in Wonderland's plot something one can recite?  BATB is a basic plot, and Nutcrackers overall plot could be as up in the air as Wrinkle in Time's.  

The niche princess audience should lessen because it will divide between teen girls who go by themselves and can pay for something different and BATB which was just consuming families.

The Grinch's advertisements should suck anyone away from Nutcracker's poster, I expect families to conclude Nutcracker is incomprehensible upon surface and fall to The Grinch.  

[Cmasterclay]

I'm ready to admit I was wrong when I said earlier this year that Bohemian was heading towards a 25m OW and wouldn't even approach Straight Outta Compton. It still won't top SOC and it won't hit @WrathOfHan's high end, but 40m OW looks good for it and that's a huge number. The commonalities between it and Compton are simple: they were advertised like blockbusters, not "adult dramas" or Oscar contenders. They were promoted by the surviving band members and had spot on casting like Malek and Ice Cube Jr. And even if Queen and NWA are no more popular or influential than James Brown, Tupac, Ray Charles, or Johnny Cash, they have the kind of crowd pleasing mega hits that can still hook an audience in more easily. Though honestly if that Tupac biopic hadn't looked and been terrible it would have done over 35m OW too IMO. Came close despite pretty much everything working against it.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm ready to admit I was wrong when I said earlier this year that Bohemian was heading towards a 25m OW and wouldn't even approach Straight Outta Compton. It still won't top SOC and it won't hit @WrathOfHan's high end, but 40m OW looks good for it and that's a huge number. The commonalities between it and Compton are simple: they were advertised like blockbusters, not "adult dramas" or Oscar contenders. They were promoted by the surviving band members and had spot on casting like Malek and Ice Cube Jr. And even if Queen and NWA are no more popular or influential than James Brown, Tupac, Ray Charles, or Johnny Cash, they have the kind of crowd pleasing mega hits that can still hook an audience in more easily. Though honestly if that Tupac biopic hadn't looked and been terrible it would have done over 35m OW too IMO. Came close despite pretty much everything working against it.

50/200 is now what I'm pushing 🤞

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

50/200 is now what I'm pushing 🤞

[FantasticBeasts]

BR's success should come as no surprise to anyone. The trailer was a blast! Every person I know got super hyped the time they saw it. It looked like so much fun.

[efialtes76]

4 hours ago, La Binoche said:

 

A Star Is Dead. 

Still dreaming...

[a2k]

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Also of note from that DL article:

 

Nutcracker: 27M (above the projections from a couple weeks ago)

Nobody's Fool: mid-to-high teens

Halloween: 17M (I have my doubts about that, but okay)

I agree about the doubts. It got the IMAX bump last weekend (which it didn't have in OW) which goes away this weekend, that too a after Halloween Wed gives the movie another boost. I think it will drop around 50-55% for 14-15.5 3rd weekend.

Edited October 30, 2018 by a2k

[WrathOfHan]

Bohemian Rhapsody is selling like crazy at my theater for Friday. The only seats left for the main night show are in the front