The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Tonight at my theater:

 

Bohemian Rhapsody:

 

7:00: 33/78

8:00: 10/78

Total: 43/156

 

The Nutcracker:

 

6:00: 13/78

8:30 3D: 16/78

Total: 29/156

 

Nobody's Fool: 2/78

 

Bohemian Rhapsody definitely has the potential to breach 120-130 tickets.

 

btw, since I'm moving in less than two months, I'm going to start tracking Tallahassee's theaters so I can get some comps down before January. I'll still be tracking my AMC's sales for the time being (potentially until I have enough good comps in Tallahassee). 

[Taylor]

https://deadline.com/2018/11/ralph-breaks-the-internet-creed-ii-robin-hood-thanksgiving-box-office-projections-1202493906/

 

5-day tracking:

 

Ralph 65m

Creed II 48m

Robin Hood 17m

Green Book high single digits

Edited November 1, 2018 by Taylor

[Litio]

3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

At this point I think sub $10m is far more likely than $10m+.   Great reviews could give a push to late but pre-sales and walk ups but the series has a strong core fan base that will buy earlier - closer to SW in that regard than JW or even AM&TW. 

I can't see how under 10m is far more likely than 10m+.

*Pre sales are fine. They started very early so they are slower.

*FB1 did 8.75m, yes, starting previews at 6 pm, but it was 2 years ago and FB2, its first sequel,will has Tuesday limited previews inflating the numbers. 

*If core fan base that will buy earlier is closer to SW, FB1 early presales should have been stronger. They weren't until some days before the release. 

Edited November 1, 2018 by Litio

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Taylor said:

https://deadline.com/2018/11/ralph-breaks-the-internet-creed-ii-robin-hood-thanksgiving-box-office-projections-1202493906/

 

5-day tracking:

 

Ralph 65m

Creed II 48m

Robin Hood 17m

Green Book high single digits

Green Book just had its release pattern change and will open in "20 markets" on the 16th to build WOM so it could go higher if the early release pays off. Either way it's likely to have a leggy run.

[Eric Duncan]

Solid for Ralph, and fantastic for Creed. Surprised at Green Book being so low. Thought it had real potential at being a Wonder-esque breakout.

 

Also of note, Nutcracker's projections are now lowered to $20M. #ohnoes

[dxmatrixdt]

,

Edited February 19, 2019 by Slave Animal Rights

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Also of note, Nutcracker's projections are now lowered to $20M. #ohnoes

[WrathOfHan]

Yeah, that's pretty bad tracking for Green Book. Could actually end up being the lowest grossing BP nominee that isn't Roma or Beale Street (if the latter is even nominated). Awesome number for Creed at least (and Robin Hood too considering we all thought it'd be in the singles)

 

[Valonqar]

I think that GB tracking will improve when WOM spreads from limited release. it's guaranteed to have super high PTA.

 

 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I think that GB tracking will improve when WOM spreads from limited release. it's guaranteed to have super high PTA.

 

 

Depends on the number of theaters and how many screens it'll get. 20 markets could mean a similar theater count to The Hate U Give's first weekend launch of 36 theaters.

 

Edit: Hollywood Reporter is saying it is 20 theaters that will play it that weekend.

Edited November 1, 2018 by filmlover

[Eric Duncan]

Also TIL Robin Hood is produced by Leonardo DiCaprio of all people. Good to know his post-Oscar career is off to a great start.

[filmlover]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

Also TIL Robin Hood is produced by Leonardo DiCaprio of all people. Good to know his post-Oscar career is off to a great start.

He also produced Orphan, Red Riding Hood, and Live by Night so clearly he's not as picky about films he produces as he is about films he actually stars in.

[Cmasterclay]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Tonight at my theater:

 

Bohemian Rhapsody:

 

7:00: 33/78

8:00: 10/78

Total: 43/156

 

The Nutcracker:

 

6:00: 13/78

8:30 3D: 16/78

Total: 29/156

 

Nobody's Fool: 2/78

 

Bohemian Rhapsody definitely has the potential to breach 120-130 tickets.

 

btw, since I'm moving in less than two months, I'm going to start tracking Tallahassee's theaters so I can get some comps down before January. I'll still be tracking my AMC's sales for the time being (potentially until I have enough good comps in Tallahassee). 

You're gonna be a Tallahassee Lassie!

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

You're gonna be a Tallahassee Lassie!

I'll be in the same city as the most progressive governor in the country (who I voted for yesterday!). Going to be a stark change from living in senior central lmao

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

He also produced Orphan, Red Riding Hood, and Live by Night so clearly he's not as picky about films he produces as he is about films he actually stars in.

He's no Brad Pitt.  More like Spielberg and directing v producing

 

 

[filmlover]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

I'll be in the same city as the most progressive governor in the country (who I voted for yesterday!). Going to be a stark change from living in senior central lmao

But what if you encounter nothing but seniors at the theater anyway? 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

But what if you encounter nothing but seniors at the theater anyway? 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Knowing your luck it'll probably happen. Poor WrathOfMRAn.

[el sid]

Pulse always 9:35-9:49 EST:
Bohemian Rhapsody: 307/15 - yesterday at the same time of the day it were 142, nice jump
The Nutcracker: 72/15 - yesterday it were 37 at the same time of the day
Nobody's Fool: 37
The Grinch: 7

And Pulse always 10:50-11:04 EST:
BR: 421 - yesterday it had 201 at the same time of the day. I'm very optimistic that BR will cross the 40M mark.
The Nutcracker: 82 -  Goosebumps 2 (15.8M OW) had 57 sold tickets same day and time of the day, would mean 22-23M
NF: 60 - yesterday it were 27 at the same time of the day, looks ok
The Grinch: 13
FB 2: 15

And MT:
#1 Bohemian Rhapsody 28.8%
#2 Halloween 24.9%
#3 ASIB 8.8%
#4 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 7.7%
#5 Venom 3.2%
 

Edited November 1, 2018 by el sid

[WrathOfHan]

Along with sellouts, I'll start doing the Tallahassee AMC's auditorium placements and showtimes (I'll scrap my other local theater considering I never do sellout reports there):

 

Bad Times at the El Royale, Free Solo, Hell Fest, London Fields, The Nun, Silencio, and The Sisters Brothers are gone.

 

Bohemian Rhapsody: 10 (IMAX, Dolby x0.4, and Biggest)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: 10 (Dolby x0.6, Biggest, and Smallest x0.5)

Nobody's Fool: 9 (Biggest x2)

Suspiria: 4 (Smallest)

The Happy Prince: 2 (Average x0.5)

 

Halloween: 7 (Average x1.5)

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween: 5 (Below Average)

Mid90s: 5 (Above Average)

Night School: 5 (Smallest)

The Old Man and the Gun: 5 (Smallest)

Smallfoot: 5 (Smallest)

Venom: 5 (Average)

The Hate U Give: 4 (Smallest)

Hunter Killer: 4 (Below Average)

Indivisible: 4 (Average)

A Star Is Born: 4 (Above Average)

Fahrenheit 11/9: 1 (Smallest x0.25)

First Man: 1 (Smallest x0.25)

 

During the weekend, The Nutcracker and Nobody's Fool gain extra shows at the expense of Smallfoot, Mid90s, Indivisible, and Goosebumps.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

Spoiler

IMAX: 372 seats

Dolby: 236 seats

Biggest: 104-107 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Above Average: 77 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Average: 67-70 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Below Average: 51-54 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Smallest: 40 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)