The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

What is going on with people? I absolutely loved TS3 and it's incredible ending, but I have no interest at all meeting those lovely characters in a new adventure. 

Why can't they just for once let us live with our good memories and own ideas how things turned out for them? 

 

Wasn't Finding Dorie enough to hurt the greatness of Finding Nemo? 

Counterpoint:

 

Keanu

mother bleeping

REEVES!

Edited May 30, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

23 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/28/19 (End of Tues)  

1	47.7%	Aladdin
2	14.1%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
3	8.1%	Avengers: Endgame
4	6.9%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	3.6%    Brightburn    

There’s a usurper in 5th place, but not KotM yet. We’ll see it tomorrow but not sure what place.

17 PT 5/29/19 (End of Wed)  

1	41.2%	Aladdin
2	10.4%	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
3	10.4%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
4	8%	Rocketman
5	5.7%    Avengers: Endgame   

2nd place, by the skin of its teeth! What I didn’t expect was Rocket-ingIntoTheTopFive-Man.    

 

Wick looking nice, but it is after all adult skewing on our first normal weekday in a long time.

[filmlover]

Ma's reviews are relatively solid for the genre. Think it can inch past $20M for the weekend.

[Porthos]

On 5/22/2019 at 6:04 PM, Porthos said:

As of right now:  http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

 

Aladdin             	2019-05-23	THU	12568	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-24	FRI	20297	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-25	SAT	13532	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-26	SUN	6529	---
Aladdin             	2019-05-27	MDY	2664	---
Aladdin             	GRAND TOTAL	TOTAL	55590	---

(http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt)

 

Compare/contrast:

Godzilla: King of the Monsters	2019-05-30	THU	13373	---
Godzilla: King of the Monsters	2019-05-31	FRI	10227	---
Godzilla: King of the Monsters	2019-06-01	SAT	7157	---
Godzilla: King of the Monsters	2019-06-02	SUN	2874	---
Godzilla: King of the Monsters	GRAND TOTAL	TOTAL	33631	---

 

As I look at my timestamp, I might have an extra hour for KotM, so keep that in mind.

 

Either way, similar Thur numbers, but not nearly the same penetration into Fri and beyond.  Won't matter if the WOM is good for KotM.  But if it isn't, it doesn't have as much "in the bank" as Aladdin did.

 

Also showing just how much forward buying there was on Memorial Day Weekend, I think.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Porthos
Editing in the link for future reference/ease of finding this post.

[Tinalera]

Im interested in seeing how rocketman does. Not expecting same as bohemian, though great if it does. For me its more does it get a bit of resurgence in eltons music like it did for BR and Queen. 

And if Rocketman blasts off do we see more music biographies down the pipe.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Poseidon said:

What is going on with people? I absolutely loved TS3 and it's incredible ending, but I have no interest at all meeting those lovely characters in a new adventure. 

Why can't they just for once let us live with our good memories and own ideas how things turned out for them? 

 

Wasn't Finding Dorie enough to hurt the greatness of Finding Nemo? 

Many said the same thing about Toy Story 3 after Toy Story 2  (also Toy Story 2 after TS 1)

 

Dorie (a charming if not great movie) didn't hurt Finding Nemo one iota

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Im interested in seeing how rocketman does. Not expecting same as bohemian, though great if it does. For me its more does it get a bit of resurgence in eltons music like it did for BR and Queen. 

And if Rocketman blasts off do we see more music biographies down the pipe.

Ask and you shall receive:

 

https://deadline.com/2019/05/boy-george-movie-mgm-sacha-gervasi-culture-club-1202623420/

 

A Boy George biopic is coming.

[dakus]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

(http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt)

 

Compare/contrast:

Godzilla: King of the Monsters	2019-05-30	THU	13373	---
Godzilla: King of the Monsters	2019-05-31	FRI	10227	---
Godzilla: King of the Monsters	2019-06-01	SAT	7157	---
Godzilla: King of the Monsters	2019-06-02	SUN	2874	---
Godzilla: King of the Monsters	GRAND TOTAL	TOTAL	33631	---

 

As I look at my timestamp, I might have an extra hour for KotM, so keep that in mind.

 

Either way, similar Thur numbers, but not nearly the same penetration into Fri and beyond.  Won't matter if the WOM is good for KotM.  But if it isn't, it doesn't have as much "in the bank" as Aladdin did.

 

Also showing just how much forward buying there was on Memorial Day Weekend, I think.

I'm almost wondering if the Godzilla being more Thursday pre-sale heavy might be a good sign, given how walk up friendly these types of movies are. We see the dedicated fans booking for Thursday, while the more lacking current FSS sales will be balanced out by the people simply coming on a whim. I think it appears to be a healthier spread then the presales being more backloaded for a monster movie, but I could be wrong.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, dakus said:

I'm almost wondering if the Godzilla being more Thursday pre-sale heavy might be a good sign, given how walk up friendly these types of movies are. We see the dedicated fans booking for Thursday, while the more lacking current FSS sales will be balanced out by the people simply coming on a whim. I think it appears to be a healthier spread then the presales being more backloaded for a monster movie, but I could be wrong.

I think it really is going to depend on how the WOM is coming out of Thur.  Folks might just give it a pass entirely if they don't hear good things.  Walk ups are fickle things, after all.

[Mulder]

9 hours ago, Mulder said:

First count of today, only thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-236 (+10), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular) Final Day

Dark Phoenix-104 (+9), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Toy Story 4-38 (+3), 6 screenings listed, only 5 up for sale (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular) Second day

 

Good start for Godzilla.

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-264 (+38), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular) Final Day

Dark Phoenix-108 (+13), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

SLoP2-7 (+2), 4 screenings (2 3D, 2 Regular)

Toy Story 4-44 (+9), 6 screenings listed, only 5 up for sale (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular) Second day

Men in Black: International-7, 9 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 3 Regular) First Day

 

Incredible day for Godzilla, good for Phoenix and Toy Story 4, SLoP2 and MiB: International....especially MiB....not good. In total KoTM bows out today with 38 tickets and Phoenix sold 13, SLoP2 sold...2, Toy Story 4 sold 9, and MiB: International sold 7.

[Mulder]

I'll fully say maybe my theater's overperforming for KoTM like it underperformed for Aladdin but....if that's a sign of things nationwide it's a really good sign.

[xiazhi]

5 hours ago, Poseidon said:

What is going on with people? I absolutely loved TS3 and it's incredible ending, but I have no interest at all meeting those lovely characters in a new adventure. 

Why can't they just for once let us live with our good memories and own ideas how things turned out for them? 

 

Wasn't Finding Dorie enough to hurt the greatness of Finding Nemo? 

One movie doesn't hurt the other. Plus dory is a solid animation.

[DAJK]

I just want to give a huge thank you to this thread and everyone in it over the past few months. BOT stands for Box Office Theory of course, and the reason I joined these Forums 5 years ago is because they were unlike any other movie-related forum on the Internet. This wasn't some fanboy site talking about CBMs all the time, but a forum with many members who genuinely cared about box office. 

 

Over the years, many newbies have come to these forums and have contributed little to box-office related discussion. Not that they do not contribute to these boards in other ways; most users on here are great and are very enthusiastic. But in regular movie threads, there is a lot less box office talk than there used to be.

 

But this thread represents the reason I came to BOT in the first place. This thread has so many members in here dedicated to box office numbers, and discussion in here rarely gets sidetracked. Not only that, but some members in here have even gotten so good at tracking to be better than many industry trackers. It really is incredible.

 

So, thank you!

[Eric Loves Rey]

@DAJK

 

[keysersoze123]

Good stuff @DAJK. I am especially amazed when folks are anxious to track BO even when they are sick !!!!!

 

I am amazed when I see  tracking not one theater but entire city !!!! That requires clicking show after show and count tickets sold.

 

There is definitely a method to the madness in this thread 🙂 Thanks again to all the trackers.

Edited May 30, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-28 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	37.943%	25349	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	12.551%	8385	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3       08.674% 5795    Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined] 
4	06.966%	4654	Avengers Endgame (2019) [combined]
5	05.430%	3628	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
6	04.661%	3114	Rocketman
7	04.438%	2965	Booksmart
8       04.396% 2937    Toy Story 4 [combined] 
9	04.326%	2890	Brightburn
10	01.394%	931	Ma (2019)

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-29 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	31.064%	19958	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	17.220%	11063	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	10.389%	6675	Rocketman
4	09.263%	5951	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
5	06.129%	3938	Avengers Endgame (2019) [combined]
6	03.787%	2433	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
7	03.603%	2315	Booksmart
8	03.426%	2201	Ma (2019)
9	02.920%	1876	Toy Story 4 [combined]
10	02.662%	1710	Brightburn
11	01.086%	698	Dark Phoenix [combined]

[keysersoze123]

There is still another hour of update left. but Zilla sold less than half what Aladdin did last week. I know the musketeer prefers comparison with Monster movies but movies so close to each other and with similar expectations have to be compared.

[Mulder]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is still another hour of update left. but Zilla sold less than half what Aladdin did last week. I know the musketeer prefers comparison with Monster movies but movies so close to each other and with similar expectations have to be compared.

Aladdin had a four day weekend, opened to 100+ million in total, and is more pre-sale based by way of being a Disney female-centric movie. Enough.

[Porthos]

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	125	13495	15483	12.84%

 

Total Showings Added Today:              5

Total Seats Added Today:                 375

Total Seats Sold Today:                    351

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be Fallen Kingdom.  I also have comps with the Aladdin and Detective Pikachu as something as a compare/contrast with current May movies.  They may not be as good comps, being in different genres. I have also added at the last moment comps for Venom and Ant-Man and the Wasp as they were walkup heavy.

 

Unadjusted Comps

0.8808x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 1 day before release. 

0.7933x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 1 day before release.

 

T-1:

Pika        472 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/112 showings   |   8001/10258 seats left  | 22.00% sold]

Aladdin   580 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/117 showings   | 11420/13926 seats left  | 18.00% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.4351x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 1 day before release.

.6914x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man & the Wasp 1 day before release.

.6724x as many tickets sold as Venom 1 day before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-1:

JW2             768 tickets sold [0 sellouts/147 showings |   9523/13715 seats left   |  30.57% sold]

AM2            347 tickets sold [0 sellouts/112 showings |   8258/10896 seats left   |  24.21% sold]

KotM (JW)    329 tickets sold [0 sellouts/120 showings | 11911/13406 seats left   |  11.15% sold]

---

Venom      498 tickets sold [0 sellouts/122 showings | 10414/13170 seats left   |  26.31% sold]

KotM (V)    331 tickets sold [0 sellouts/125 showings | 12587/14440 seats left   |  12.83% sold]

KotM (V) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp.

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	10674	11571	7.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    208

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be family friendly films such as Aladdin and Detective Pikachu .  I will also be using Fallen Kingdom and KotM as comps due to the walkup friendly nature of their genres.  I may drop them if I feel they are not working as comps.

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.2512x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after two days of pre-sales. 

2.2203x as many tickets sold as Aladdin after two days of pre-sales.

2.6856x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters after two days of pre-sales.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 24, and King of the Monsters had 20 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

Also, some theaters sold tickets for a couple of days for KotM before being officially announced for sale.

 

Day 2:

Pika         53 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/69 showings   |     7486/7697 seats left    |  2.74% sold]

Aladdin  173 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/68 showings   |     9001/9405 seats left    |  4.30% sold]

KotM        47 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/57 showings   |     7620/7954 seats left    |  4.20% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.1174x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after two days of pre-sales.       

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 22 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

Day 2:

JW2             180 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings | 9338/10113 seats left   |  7.66% sold]

TS4 (JW)      200 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings |   9040/9906 seats left   |  8.74% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.