The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[dxmatrixdt]

100 - It: Chapter 2 - 110

 4.0 - Angel Has Fallen - 32.0

 4.0 - Good Boy - 54.0

 3.0 - Don't Let Go - 12.0

 3.0 - Hobbes & Shaw - 163.0

 3.0 - Ready or Not - 28.0

 3.0 - The Lion King - 525.0

 2.0 - Angry Birds 2 - 37.0

 2.0 - Dora the Explorer - 54.0

 2.0 - … Hollywood - 131.0

 1.0 - 47 Meters Down - 24.5

 1.0 - Scary Stories - 59.0

 1.0 - Spider-Man - 385.0

[Inceptionzq]

On 8/17/2019 at 4:27 PM, Inceptionzq said:

IT: Chapter 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 20/411(+2)

10:45 PM – 0/411

Prime: 

7 PM – 24/187(+3)

10:45 PM – 7/187

Dolby: 

7 PM – 93/217(+4)

10:45 PM – 5/217(+1)

2D: 

5 PM – 4/56

5:15 PM – 0/38

5:30 PM – 1/38

5:45 PM – 0/48

6 PM – 14/48

6:15 PM – 0/44

6:30 PM – 0/44

7 PM – 2/158

7 PM – 2/92

7:15 PM – 2/92

7:30 PM – 0/94

7:45 PM – 0/94

8 PM – 0/48

8:15 PM – 0/48

8:30 PM – 0/44

8:45 PM – 0/56

9 PM – 0/38

9:15 PM – 0/38

9:30 PM – 0/48

9:45 PM – 0/48

10 PM – 0/44

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:30 PM – 0/44

10:45 PM – 0/158

10:45 PM – 0/92

11 PM – 0/92

11:15 PM – 0/94

11:30 PM – 0/94

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 10/384

10:45 PM – 5/384

Dolby:

7 PM – 89/210

10:45 PM – 7/210

2D: 

5 PM – 0/85

5:30 PM – 2/52(+2)

6 PM – 0/52

6:30 PM – 2/52

7 PM – 9/159

7:30 PM – 0/85

7:45 PM – 0/85

8:45 PM – 0/85

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:45 PM – 0/52

10:15 PM – 3/52

Total from 9 theaters(97 showings): 619(+32)/14474 (4.3%)

TLK comp: 13.73M

Hobbs comp: 24.93M

I realized that the comps I used yesterday were for today. Oh well

IT: Chapter 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 20/411

10:45 PM – 0/411

Prime:

7 PM – 28/187(+4)

10:45 PM – 7/187

Dolby:

7 PM – 97/217(+4)

10:45 PM – 5/217

2D:

5 PM – 4/56

5:15 PM – 0/38

5:30 PM – 1/38

5:45 PM – 0/48

6 PM – 14/48

6:15 PM – 0/44

6:30 PM – 0/44

7 PM – 2/158

7 PM – 2/92

7:15 PM – 2/92

7:30 PM – 0/94

7:45 PM – 0/94

8 PM – 0/48

8:15 PM – 0/48

8:30 PM – 0/44

8:45 PM – 0/56

9 PM – 0/38

9:15 PM – 0/38

9:30 PM – 0/48

9:45 PM – 0/48

10 PM – 0/44

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:30 PM – 0/44

10:45 PM – 0/158

10:45 PM – 0/92

11 PM – 0/92

11:15 PM – 0/94

11:30 PM – 0/94

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 10/384

10:45 PM – 5/384

Dolby:

7 PM – 92/210(+3)

10:45 PM – 7/210

2D:

5 PM – 2/85(+2)

5:30 PM – 2/52

6 PM – 0/52

6:30 PM – 2/52

7 PM – 19/159(+10)

7:30 PM – 0/85

7:45 PM – 0/85

8:45 PM – 0/85

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:45 PM – 0/52

10:15 PM – 3/52

Total from 9 theaters(97 showings): 665(+46)/14474 (4.6%)

[Eric Duncan]

It: Chapter Two Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	638	18,817	3.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Adjusted Comp

5.27x of Hobbs & Shaw 18 days before release (30.6M)

 

I know it seems weird that this jumped so high in ticket sales but went solow in the comps department, but 13 out of the 23 tickets sold were from a theater I didn't track before I started this dang thing. But it doesn't matter, because it still seems good.

 

I started tracking Lion King on Day 17, so now we'll have two comps to look at. Whether or not that will make things clearer for me is up in the air though.  

[Porthos]

It: Chapter 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	12651	13395	744	5.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

24

 

Not really sure what to use as a comp for this film, since as I understand it horror isn't that pre-sale heavy.  Maybe.  For now, gonna throw in a few recent ones along with JW2 and, by request, DP2 and hope for the best.

 

T-18 Comps (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Pika	182.80		19	407		0/78	8763/9170	4.44%		10.42m
Aladdin	122.98		32	605		0/68	9178/9783	6.18%		8.61m
KotM	200.00		38	372		0/57	7582/7954	4.68%		12.60m
TS4	57.32		71	1298		0/89	10900/12198	10.64%		6.88m
TLK	37.65		120	1976		0/179	17730/19706	10.03%		8.66m

PRE-SALES NOTE: Detective Pikachu had 30 days of pre-sales, Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and KotM had 21 days of pre-sales.  In comparison It 2 had 36 days of pre-sales. 

 

T-18 Adjusted Comps (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-189	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
JW2	64.74		97	1055		0/97	905810113	10.43%		9.91m
DP2	34.43		83	1984		0/92	9773/11757	16.88%		6.40m
It 2 (adj)	n/a		24	683		0/98	10422/11105	6.15%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 23 days of pre-sales and Deadpool 2 had 30 days of pre-sales, while It 2 had 36. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  It 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Deadpool 2.

[Valonqar]

Any tracking for IT2?

[XXR vs XXR]

13 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Any tracking for IT2?

 

You’re joking, right?

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

You’re joking, right?

No because I wasn't around much lately so I must have missed it. 

[MattW]

4 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Any tracking for IT2?

https://www.thewrap.com/it-chapter-two-projected-to-at-least-match-predecessors-horror-record-opening/

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/box-office-it-chapter-two-opening-weekend-tracking-1203302473/

https://deadline.com/2019/08/it-chapter-two-opening-weekend-box-office-projections-bill-hader-jessica-chastain-1202669396/

 

 

My feeling before seeing any of the posts here was around $12m for previews for IT2, with a slightly lower IM compared to IT (9.14), maybe 8.5-9.0 for a weekend at or just over 100m.

[Valonqar]

I want it to open with over 100M so this is encouraging. Is it going to start at 6 pm on Thursday due to long running time?

Edited August 19, 2019 by Valonqar

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Any tracking for IT2?

BOP:        115-155 OW (138 currently)

Variety:     95-110 OW

Deadline:  95-120+OW

 

Box Office Pro is the really optimistic one right now, but that's not unusual, as they're doing something slightly different from the other tracking services out there.

 

EDIT:::  

 

Didn't refresh the page (went away to do some other things), and didn't see @MattW already answered this. 👍

 

But since I'm here, I'll answer this bit:

 

12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I want it to open with over 100M so this is encouraging. Is it going to start at 6 pm on Thursday due to long running time?

5pm previews.  

Edited August 19, 2019 by Porthos

[Valonqar]

Ah, thanks! 

[Taruseth]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

BOP:        115-155 OW (138 currently)

Variety:     95-110 OW

Deadline:  95-120+OW

 

Box Office Pro is the really optimistic one right now, but that's not unusual, as they're doing something slightly different from the other tracking services out there.

 

EDIT:::  

 

Didn't refresh the page (went away to do some other things), and didn't see @MattW already answered this. 👍

 

But since I'm here, I'll answer this bit:

 

5pm previews.  

Why does it get 5pm Previews in the US but previews in Germany can't start before 10:30?

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Why does it get 5pm Previews in the US but previews in Germany can't start before 10:30?

Local traditions.

 

Probably "should" be 6pm at the earliest, but WB is obviously trying to squeeze in as many showtimes as it can so it went to 5pm instead.  Aiming at the college crowd also might have something to do with it.

 

(not to start up the debate on ever longer preview windows again)

[Legion Again]

Wonder how much money Disney left of the table for Endgame previews by not starting until 6 

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Local traditions.

 

Probably "should" be 6pm at the earliest, but WB is obviously trying to squeeze in as many showtimes as it can so it went to 5pm instead.  Aiming at the college crowd also might have something to do with it.

 

(not to start up the debate on ever longer preview windows again)

In Germany previews tend to always start between 7:45 and 8:15pm unless they are midnights (00:01). But WB specifically said cinemas couldn't start a showing before 10:30pm.

[el sid]

Since Ready Or Not is already released tomorrow (with first showtimes at 6pm from what I saw) I had a glimse at it and it didn't do that bad:
RON had at my normal counting time 215 tickets sold for tomorrow and 95 for Friday. For comps, that's a bit more than what Crawl had on Tuesday for its Thursday previews (194) and a bit less than what Crawl had on Monday for Friday (114).
If it's indeed as good as the critics say and if WOM spreads till the weekend it will not sink (completely).
Too bad that the horror movies have to cannibalize each other so much this summer...

Edited August 19, 2019 by el sid

[LookingforMrGoodbar]

I know it's a month out but does anyone have any thoughts on what will be the biggest new release for September 20th?

 

Downton Abbey tickets start tomorrow (Abominable was actually last week) and I see that it's actually being blocked until then so maybe they are expecting big things for the movie. Some locations have an early 7:00pm showing for September 12th.

[Eric Duncan]

3 hours ago, LookingforMrGoodbar said:

I know it's a month out but does anyone have any thoughts on what will be the biggest new release for September 20th?

 

Downton Abbey tickets start tomorrow (Abominable was actually last week) and I see that it's actually being blocked until then so maybe they are expecting big things for the movie. Some locations have an early 7:00pm showing for September 12th.

Pretty sure it'll be Ad Astra by default. Speaking of, do you know when tickets start for that film?

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, LookingforMrGoodbar said:

I know it's a month out but does anyone have any thoughts on what will be the biggest new release for September 20th?

 

Downton Abbey tickets start tomorrow (Abominable was actually last week) and I see that it's actually being blocked until then so maybe they are expecting big things for the movie. Some locations have an early 7:00pm showing for September 12th.

*checks Sacto*

 

Huh.  Double Previews (12th AND 19th).  The one on the 12th does appear to be hard-locked at one showing like you said.

 

Interesting.

 

Anyway, here's the latest from boxofficepro:

 

 

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Range	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
9/20/2019	Ad Astra	$17,000,000 – $22,000,000	$20,000,000		$65,000,000			Fox
9/20/2019	Downton Abbey	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	n/a		n/a			Universal
9/20/2019	Rambo: Last Blood	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000	$14,500,000		$35,000,000			Lionsgate

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Wonder how much money Disney left of the table for Endgame previews by not starting until 6 

Imagine if Endgame

-had a 2 hr runtime

-4 pm previews

-released on a hypothetical Christmas Day Thursday