The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Nothing at Empire 25 as well. Interesting thing is for SW9 shows had popped up by now for monday sale. Obviously F2 is a family flick and comparisons should be I2 or TS4 or TLK but without Pulse we dont have apples to apples data. We have to rely on @Porthos, @FlashMaster659 , @Eric, @captainwondyful and @TalismanRing to provide comparable data. I think I can search for my Lion king data as well.

[FlashMaster659]

Can't guarantee I'll be able to track Frozen 2 all the way through since 2 movies at once is a hassle but I'll do my best to stick with it.

[Cap]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nothing at Empire 25 as well. Interesting thing is for SW9 shows had popped up by now for monday sale. Obviously F2 is a family flick and comparisons should be I2 or TS4 or TLK but without Pulse we dont have apples to apples data. We have to rely on @Porthos, @FlashMaster659 , @Eric, @captainwondyful and @TalismanRing to provide comparable data. I think I can search for my Lion king data as well.

For AMC Empire 25, I have Avengers and Lion King data.  For Lincoln Square, I have everything.

[Cap]

2 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Can't guarantee I'll be able to track Frozen 2 all the way through since 2 movies at once is a hassle but I'll do my best to stick with it.

You should do Frozen cause who cares about Star Wars? 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

You should do Frozen cause who cares about Star Wars? 

 

Spoiler

😘 😘 😘 

 

[Cap]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

😘 😘 😘 

 

I almost added "don't worry, I'll just warn myself." 

 

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I almost added "don't worry, I'll just warn myself." 

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

  Hide contents

 

tbf I almost went with a pic of a Google Search saying, "How do I report a mod?"

 

But I decided to stick with the classics.

 

 

 

[cdsacken]

29 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

You should do Frozen cause who cares about Star Wars? 

Can't hold back it anymore huh? I love this lol. Frozen 2 will crush it. 100% on the hype train.

 

I sincerely hope both overachieve. Would be wonderful!

Edited October 27, 2019 by cdsacken

[Cap]

8 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Can't hold back it anymore huh?

I feel it's more For The First Time In Forever.

[keysersoze123]

Not to make it a franchise wars thread. But I am also fully vested in SW9 tracking and so will do something similar to what I am doing for Terminator(not that I think they will have similar BO 🙂 ).

 

Anyway I doubt F2 will be a PS monster. But even if it does like Quarter of SW9 numbers, I am willing to get on the train for the movie. For now I am skeptical.

[keysersoze123]

On 10/24/2019 at 10:53 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Terminator - Dark Fate (T-7)

AMC - 8605/168890 $147834.10(778 shows) +3266

CIN - 2902/163170 $38286(914 shows) +1538

 

So overall PS of 186K and if we take 1/3rd share for the 3 chains then we are looking at 560K national previews PS at this point. Real action should start next week. If I have to guess I would say 3-3.5m previews.

Terminator - Dark Fate (T-5)

AMC Prev - 9920/169881 $169653 790 shows  +1315
Cinemark  Prev - 3344/163170 $44260 914 shows +442

 

So its under 215K with Cinemark way weaker than AMC which means AMC is over indexing. I would think National previews would be at 550K. Needs to finish at at least 55k between 2 chains to hit 3m previews. May be its going to just have like sub 2.5m previews but still do great over the weekend to hit 40m OW.

 

So I looked at AMC OD to see if the PS is backloaded.

 

AMC OD - 12527/461164 $216254

 

Good news is its higher than previews. So there is some hope for good OW though raw numbers are still meh.

[Porthos]

54 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Anyway I doubt F2 will be a PS monster.

I think it's very likely to at least get Incredible 2's previews for a couple of reasons.

 

It's a massively hyped sequel to a beloved property that fans have been demanding a sequel for years.

it's also going to get a lot of women buying tickets and, historically at least, films that appeal to women tend to be heavier pre-sales than other films.

 

There's other more prosaic reasons (trailer views, general buzz and the like), but I'd be very surprised if:

 

1) It doesn't do at least 15m in previews at the absolute least.

2) it doesn't blow the doors off of TS4's 24 hour numbers.

 

Much like TS4, I think It'll settle down a bit after the initial rush.  But overall I see a monster hurricane brewing.  

 

So I tend to think capturing its first 24 hours at least is a good idea, if you can.  If only for future animation monsters.

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

I think it's very likely to at least get Incredible 2's previews for a couple of reasons.

 

It's a massively hyped sequel to a beloved property that fans have been demanding a sequel for years.

it's also going to get a lot of women buying tickets and, historically at least, films that appeal to women tend to be heavier pre-sales than other films.

 

There's other more prosaic reasons (trailer views, general buzz and the like), but I'd be very surprised if:

 

1) It doesn't do at least 15m in previews at the absolute least.

2) it doesn't blow the doors off of TS4's 24 hour numbers.

 

Much like TS4, I think It'll settle down a bit after the initial rush.  But overall I see a monster hurricane brewing.  

 

So I tend to think capturing its first 24 hours at least is a good idea, if you can.  If only for future animation monsters.

When it comes right down to it, and being more than a bit reductive, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Frozen 2 be the "female Incredibles 2" for the reasons I cited above.  Only real difference between the two is the amount of time between the films, I think.

 

Mind, I could be wrong. It might "only" do 375 to 425.  Wouldn't be the first time I was massively wrong about a film and won't be the last. 

 

But, gotta tell ya, I think a storm's a brewin' out there.

[Eric the Ape]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-54 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	164	7,617	28,790	26.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 139

 

It's a tiny bit frustrating that there's nothing to talk about comps-wise, but it's still selling way above 100 tickets per day, which has to mean something.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I think it's very likely to at least get Incredible 2's previews for a couple of reasons.

 

It's a massively hyped sequel to a beloved property that fans have been demanding a sequel for years.

it's also going to get a lot of women buying tickets and, historically at least, films that appeal to women tend to be heavier pre-sales than other films.

 

There's other more prosaic reasons (trailer views, general buzz and the like), but I'd be very surprised if:

 

1) It doesn't do at least 15m in previews at the absolute least.

2) it doesn't blow the doors off of TS4's 24 hour numbers.

 

Much like TS4, I think It'll settle down a bit after the initial rush.  But overall I see a monster hurricane brewing.  

 

So I tend to think capturing its first 24 hours at least is a good idea, if you can.  If only for future animation monsters.

That is given. I am doing it for couple of days at least and then on a weekly interval until week before the release when I will do it daily. If I can track Mal 2, Zombieland and Terminator, I will track Frozen 2.

 

I dont have absolute numbers for I2 or TS4 but did track Empire 25 but @captainwondyful has everything. So she along with you and others will have comparative data. My goal is to capture data for future. Though next year you dont have a animation sequel though Mulan Live action is there but I am not convinced domestic hype would be there.

[MattW]

Star wars is huge in my area, endgame is the only non-SW movie that looked like this. 

The cinemark has 8 shows listed for Thurs night, 5 have already sold out, 2 are near sold out (only first row seats left).

The local chain has 6 shows listed, 2 are near sold out, and the other 4 are about halfway sold.  

All told about 75% of the seats currently offered for opening night at these two theaters are sold.

 

(I don't have any actual comps bc I'm lazy. Sorry.)

[Old Spice]

Just picked up my Ford vs Ferarri tix. Weird time to release them though; almost 1:00 AM on the East Coast... 🤔

[keysersoze123]

On 10/25/2019 at 10:43 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Update for just SW9 AMC prev/OD

AMC Previews - 249814/835609 $3739148.08 4984 shows +17903
AMC OD - 142935/1068731 $2309313.76  5224 shows +13848

 

Phenonenal day adding almost 300 shows for previews and more than that for OD. That helped propel PS big time at AMC today. 82 sellouts I can track(but many more sellouts are missed as AMC seem to remove the sellouts from the showlist) and if you take it < 10 open seats then almost 250 sellouts. OD has 40 near sellouts(including 8 sellouts).

AMC Previews - 251899/838532 $3770155 (5004 shows)
AMC OD - 145393/1073302 $2347370 5241 shows
AMC D2 - 110246/1058677 $1667012 (5177 shows)
AMC D3- 49994/1029430 $756905(5026 shows)

AMC D4 - 13901/910488 $212608.74(4427 shows)

AMC D5 -  10853/831297 $156181.65 (4041 shows)

AMC D6 - 13355/907756 $190887.65 (4436 shows)

 

 The previews/od move was quite slow today but that is when you look at SW RR. These numbers are insane otherwise. Dont forget it has 54 days to release.

Edited October 27, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-54 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	193	12619	23240*	10621	45.70%

* NOTE:  The seat maps for some showings were adjusted resulting in a net loss of 13 available seats.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

111

 

"Day Six" Adjusted Comps #1 

	%		Sold "Day Six"	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	488.11		71	2086		0/81	8522/10608	19.66%		101.04m
EG	58.35		204	17449		9/221	5575/23024	75.79%		35.01m
TROS (adj)	n/a		107	10182		2/193	11796/21978	45.82%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame

"DAY SIX" NOTE: The first day of sales cited here are after 1 day and 6 hours or so for Captain Marvel, around 15 to 16 hours for Endgame, and 5+ hours for TROS.

 

"Day Six" Adjusted Comps #2 

	%		Sold "Day Six"	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	155.79		102	5863		1/107	4797/10660	55.00%		60.76m
Solo	289.05		73	3160		0/87	6188/9348	33.80%		40.76m
TROS (adj)	n/a		94	9134		2/193	8716/17850	51.71%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War and Solo.

"DAY SIX" NOTE: The first day of sales cited here are after 25 hours or so or Solo, around 14 to 15 hours for Infinity War, and 5+ hours for TROS.

 

===

 

Still liking what I'm seeing at more than 50 days out.  The total sold today would have been higher, but I had to remove 13 seats sold from the total due to a theater adjusting the seats they had available.  No idea when it actually happened.  Might have been today; might have been a couple of days ago.  Either way, most if not all of those seats had been previously marked as sold, depressing today's turn out slightly.  Would have been over 120 seats sold otherwise.

 

Coming Monday, ALL comps except Captain Marvel get nuked (and CM will have a gigantic LOL-don't take seriously warning).  By rights, I should probably nuke both Solo and Endgame starting tomorrow, as they're now too close to release night, IMO.  But one week makes a nice breaking point so I don't see anything wrong with one last day of comps for them.

[kitik]

1 hour ago, A Star is Orm said:

Just picked up my Ford vs Ferarri tix. Weird time to release them though; almost 1:00 AM on the East Coast... 🤔

 

 

I was just checking out my theater's website to see if Frozen times were listed yet (they're not), and I noticed they had Ford v Ferrari tickets on sale for the first time. Did that just happen?

 

Also, my theater doesn't have Last Christmas tickets on sale yet. Are they on sale everywhere else?