The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

Star Wars: TROS -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 7:00pm CST -- 55 Days to Previews  

 

Dolby Cinema
07:00pm: 205/205 SOLD OUT 

10:40pm: 114/205

02:15am: 13/205 

 

IMAX / IMAX 3D

06:00pm: 103/151 

09:40pm: 82/151 

01:20am: 0/151

 

Real 3D

06:00pm: 13/125 

06:20pm: 0/76

06:25pm: 0/76

06:30pm: 0/76 

06:45pm: 8/60

07:00pm: 4/60

07:15pm: 2/60

09:45pm: 0/125

10:05pm: 0/76

10:10pm: 0/76

10:30pm: 2/76

10:40pm: 0/60

10:50pm: 0/60

11:10pm: 0/60

01:45am: 0/76

 

Digital 

06:00pm: 67/147

06:15pm: 31/60

07:30pm: 34/60

07:45pm: 12/44 

08:00pm: 14/44

08:15pm: 4/44

08:45pm: 31/125

09:50pm: 17/147

09:55pm: 0/76

10:00pm: 0/76

11:25pm: 0/44

11:40pm: 0/44

11:55pm: 0/44

12:25am: 0/125

1:30am: 0/147

1:40am: 0/76

 

Fan Event

05:00pm: 100/125

 

 

TOTAL

856 tickets sold out of 3638 seats available (23.53%)

 

 

 

Comps to Final Tracked Numbers

Captain Marvel = 1440 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday

Avengers: Endgame = 3623 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday 

Toy Story 4 = 822 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

The Lion King = 1570 sold @ 4:00pm - Thursday

Joker = 659 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

•  

Edited October 26, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Eric the Ape]

Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	196	9,513	2.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 6

Total Seats Added Today: 721

Total Seats Sold Today: 27

 

Comp

0.171x of It: Chapter Two 6 days before release (1.80M)

0.155x of Joker 6 days before release (2.06M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.461x of Hobbs & Shaw 6 days before release (2.67M)

[Ryan Reynolds]

Is Dark Fate gonna do as bad as The Predator?

[Alex SciChannel]

3 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Is Dark Fate gonna do as bad as The Predator?

I won't be surprised at this point. The presales have been underwhelming and the lower than normal 3,500 theater count just screams a poor per-theater average.

[Ryan Reynolds]

3 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

I won't be surprised at this point. The presales have been underwhelming and the lower than normal 3,500 theater count just screams a poor per-theater average.

not good, maybe it can do Alien: Covenant numbers domestic with some luck

[keysersoze123]

What is the best scenario for Previews to OW multi for Terminator. i cant see it more than 10x considering there should be some frontloading with this franchise. But again the fan base is a limited driver considering how bad the PS has been. I dont know why it is tracking so big. I remember seeing numbers like 50m OW !!!

 

Other things is SW9 previews. I thought I will focus on grabbing shows for beyond OW to get numbers and I am on the quest. But I saw almost another 300 shows added for previews. So I will update with just preview numbers again. We can extrapolate how rest of the weekend would behave from yesterday's numbers. I will update before i shutdown down tonight.

[TalismanRing]

42 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

What is the best scenario for Previews to OW multi for Terminator. i cant see it more than 10x considering there should be some frontloading with this franchise. But again the fan base is a limited driver considering how bad the PS has been. I dont know why it is tracking so big. I remember seeing numbers like 50m OW !!!

 

Other things is SW9 previews. I thought I will focus on grabbing shows for beyond OW to get numbers and I am on the quest. But I saw almost another 300 shows added for previews. So I will update with just preview numbers again. We can extrapolate how rest of the weekend would behave from yesterday's numbers. I will update before i shutdown down tonight.

Terminator 5 opened on a Wed but had $2.3m in Tues previews but even over Wed-Friday (summer days) that 11.357.  Over a FSS in November it should do better than that.  Maybe 13-14x.   It's sci-fi and a sequel but it probably skews older.  The latest Rambo had a 14.5x

 

Jul 1, 2015	Wednesday	2	$8,930,404	-	-	3,758	$2,376	$8,930,404	1
Jul 2, 2015	Thursday	3	$6,525,293	-26.9%	-	3,758	$1,736	$15,455,697	2
Jul 3, 2015	Friday	3	$10,690,002	+63.8%	-	3,758	$2,844	$26,145,699	3
Jul 4, 2015 Independence Day	Saturday	3	$7,883,583	-26.3%	-	3,758	$2,097	$34,029,282	4
Jul 5, 2015	Sunday	3	$8,444,901	+7.1%	-	3,758	$2,247	$42,474,183	5

 

Edited October 26, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Old Spice]

I hadn't even checked on Terminator in Salt Lake until just a few moments ago and, yikes... it's doing baaaad. Like, Gemini Man levels of bad. Total of 10 tickets sold for Preview Night so far at the Cinemark Sugarhouse. Barring a walkup miracle like Hobbs and Shaw pulled off, I can't see this opening much north of $30M, if that.

[Eric the Ape]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-55 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	164	7,478	28,790	25.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 161

[Ryan Reynolds]

Why are Disney big releases still typically half 3d showtimes on opening weekend , even though moviegoers prefer 2d by a wide margin.

[Cap]

2 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Why are Disney big releases still typically half 3d showtimes on opening weekend , even though moviegoers prefer 2d by a wide margin.

Cause they know people want to see it OW and will pay the up charge for 3D if the other options are sold out. 

[keysersoze123]

On 10/24/2019 at 10:10 PM, keysersoze123 said:

AMC previews -   231911/783448 $3455141.67 4691 shows +4314
AMC OD - 129087/999282 $2089088.37.(4882 shows) +4136
AMC D2 -  97845/989906 $1482778.26(4831 shows) +3314
AMC D3 - 43342/960655 $658027.96 (4693 shows) +1829

Total Tickets for OW sold today- +13589

 

Obvious slow down in PS but in isolation these numbers are still great as we have another 8 weeks to go. Show count is on the up.

 

Cinemark Previews - 153965/475836, $2000791 (3166 shows)

Cinemark OD - 94268/736319, $1097906 (4468 shows)

 

I think I figured out why show count was less at my end. Cinemark does not have unique showtime ids across theaters @Menor I have messaged you link which has the data from my run.  But I am not comparing to yesterday where I was missing lots of data. I will try to refresh. Cinemark seem to have slightly better occupancy than AMC which is great.

 

Edit: added Cinemark OD. Again no comparisons as yesterday data was incomplete. Cinemark OD to AMC OD ratio is even better. I will add more days to Cinemark as well by this weekend. Hope to start doing weekly updates starting this weekend but will try to pull data for entire holidays(almost till 3rd weekend !!!!!).

Update for just SW9 AMC prev/OD

AMC Previews - 249814/835609 $3739148.08 4984 shows +17903
AMC OD - 142935/1068731 $2309313.76  5224 shows +13848

 

Phenonenal day adding almost 300 shows for previews and more than that for OD. That helped propel PS big time at AMC today. 82 sellouts I can track(but many more sellouts are missed as AMC seem to remove the sellouts from the showlist) and if you take it < 10 open seats then almost 250 sellouts. OD has 40 near sellouts(including 8 sellouts).

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-55 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	193	12743	23253	10510	45.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

161

 

"Day Five" Adjusted Comps #1 

	%		Sold "Day Five"	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	500.00		98	2015		0/81	8593/10608	19.00%		103.50m
EG	58.42		247	17245		8/221	5779/23024	74.90%		35.05m
TROS (adj)	n/a		146	10075		2/193	11915/21991	45.82%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame

"DAY FIVE" NOTE: The first day of sales cited here are after 1 day and 6 hours or so for Captain Marvel, around 15 to 16 hours for Endgame, and 5+ hours for TROS.

 

"Day Five" Adjusted Comps #2 

	%		Sold "Day Five"	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	156.92		99	5761		1/107	4899/10660	54.04%		61.20m
Solo	292.84		58	3087		0/87	6261/9348	33.02%		41.29m
TROS (adj)	n/a		100	9040		2/193	8810/17850	50.84%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War and Solo.

"DAY FIVE" NOTE: The first day of sales cited here are after 25 hours or so or Solo, around 14 to 15 hours for Infinity War, and 5+ hours for TROS.

 

===

 

Still doing pretty darn well.  There was a big boost at one showing that went up last night.  A 6:15er that was added yesterday went from 2 seats sold (out of 85) to 45 seats sold (out of 85).  So the piranhas were waiting, apparently.  

 

Even without that though a nice day for this far out.  Not sure what it'll settle in as the days wind on. After it settled down, Captain Marvel averaged 28 seats sold a day for about a month or so (outside of a Super Bowl bump that lasted a few days which I am not including).  But that was also from a much lower base.  On the other hand, a hell of a lot more showings for TROS.  

 

Honestly not sure what'll settle in at on a per-day basis.  Especially if showings get randomly added.

 

Be fun to find out though. 👍

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Why are Disney big releases still typically half 3d showtimes on opening weekend , even though moviegoers prefer 2d by a wide margin.

I think it depends on the release (ie the director) and on the theater manager.  3D share has been steadily dropping in Sacramento the last few years, for instance.

 

TROS does have one of the higher 2D:3D splits of the big movies I've tracked this year.  But , it's "only" at 23.83% of showings right now for Thursday.

 

And even then, I expect the ratio to go way down.  

 

For example, even Endgame. where theaters had patrons over a barrel, only ended up at 15.85% 3D showings locally on preview night (55 out of 347).

 

Maybe sometime tomorrow I'll do a check of all the films I tracked that had 3D and give a final ratio for all of them.

Edited October 26, 2019 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

I am sure lot more prime time shows will be added to spur Previews /OD PS. But during the release week we will see real action based on how the rest of the market is. if Jumanji disappoints I could see Plexes increase show count big time. I want to see at least 50/60% more shows than what I see now.

[Ryan Reynolds]

I wonder if arrival of Disney+ will affect boxoffice soon. I don't think it will affect the holiday season movie going much, but after that will be fun to watch.

[MattW]

This may have already been noted, I don't read every post here, but I just noticed that Cinemark has a note on their theater pages that they will not be having discounted Tuesdays between 12/20 and 1/2:

 

https://cinemark.com/southern-california/cinemark-north-hollywood
 

Quote

Holiday Notice:

Discount Day value pricing will not be available from 12/20/19 to 1/2/20.

 

Edited October 26, 2019 by MattW

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, MattW said:

This may have already been noted, I don't read every post here, but I just noticed that Cinemark has a note on their theater pages that they will not be having discounted Tuesdays between 12/20 and 1/2:

 

https://cinemark.com/southern-california/cinemark-north-hollywood
 

 

Huh.

 

*checks locals*

Samesies.  Can't recall if they did that last year or not.  last year was Xmas so I don't know how it was handled chain by chain

 

Huh.

 

===

 

This year Tue is Xmas Eve and New Years Eve, which are pretty dead days anyway.  Strange that they're not trying to goose business at all though.  Maybe they just feel it isn't worth it?

 

Or maybe it's just a corparate policy no matter what the calendar placement.  Thanks for the heads up.

Edited October 26, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Just checked Regal.  They're still having "Value Days" on Dec 24th and the 31st.  No idea about AMC as we don't have them locally.

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-55 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	253	11308	52004	40696	21.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 159

Edited October 31, 2019 by FlashMaster659