The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

On 7/18/2019 at 5:53 PM, Eric Torrance said:

Finally got it all organized and ready...

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-0 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	138	7,607	23,715	32.08%

 

Total Showings Added: 19

Total Seats Added: 3246

Total Seats Sold: 1957

 

Coulda been cool to see it cross 2000, but it's whatever. Still really strong results.

On 11/6/2019 at 10:59 PM, Eric Torrance said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-43 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	164	8,144	28,932	28.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

I dunno man I'm tired

 

Are you using the same theaters for TLK and TROS? I don't necessarily mean the exact same theaters. just that you aren't using theaters that had both but you only tracked one of them.  I.e. if TROS and TLK both were at Theater X but you're only checking Theater X now and weren't back in July.

 

 If so, TROS long passed TLK locally in your area.  So perhaps Sacramento is just catching up with your neck of the woods.

[StarWarsMemer]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

@StarWarsMemer

 

To give a couple of examples from my tracking.

 

At T-7:

Infinity War sold      8744 tickets.

Deadpool 2 sold      3334 tickets.

Captain Marvel sold 4684 tickets

Endgame sold        19469 tickets

 

At Stop of Tracking:

Infinity War sold      13164 tickets (+4420 tickets)

Deadpool 2 sold        8133 tickets (+4799 tickets)

Captain Marvel sold 10553 tickets (+5869 tickets)

Endgame sold         26655 tickets (+7186 tickets)

 

I didn't include Solo for a reason, and that's coz it flopped in the lead up to release:

 

T-7:

Solo sold 3747 tickets

 

At Stop of Tracking:

Solo sold 5789 tickets (+2042 tickets)

 

But even then, it still sold more on a per-day basis than it had been.  Just not nearly as much as it was supposed to.

 

====

 

Other films show similar patterns.

 

Doesn't mean TROS is guaranteed to have a final strong week of sales.  Solo exists as an example, after all.  But, usually speaking, yes films do sell a TON of tickets in the last week of pre-sales, for the reasons I gave in my last post.

Omg you're so informative thank you 

 

So if TRoS sells an average 75 tickets daily from now on till a week before its release in your theater and adds 6K tickets in its final week, it would be 22% higher than IW's previews, or $47M. That's pretty great

Edited November 8, 2019 by StarWarsMemer

[jedijake]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

Very very much so. Often times doubling their ticket sales.

 

That won't happen in the case of super-heavy pre-sale movies like Star Wars or Avenger films.  But generally speaking there is a ton of sales in the run up to release.

 

Partially due to more showtimes appearing, but also because, simply put, a lot of folks don't buy their tickets weeks in advance, even for big event films.

Not to mention the fact that, due to Frozen 2 coming soon, the marketing for TROS has been stale compared to this point for TFA, TLJ, and RO.

 

When marketing ratchets up again with TV spots and who knows what, tickets will pick up a LOT.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Frozen 2 (T-14)

Cin Prev - 27298/381744 $335807 2380 shows +2234
Cin OD -  41976/733937 $448710 4330 shows +4593
Cin D2 - 50463/732976 $482997 4350 shows +5142
Cin D3 - 26363/729837 $242939 4306 shows +3220

Overall +15189

 

WOW. its on tear at Cinemark for sure. Weird why its so weak at AMC. Still at just 1500 shows and sadly I am not able to pull the data. I had thought Cinemark would slow down faster than what I am seeing. This is really crazy strong.  Barely dropping 13% from yesterday.

Passed T-10 TLK's OD sales (and D2 and D3 are now about 50% ahead of TLK's T-10 numbers). I wonder if Cinemark is actually taking away business from AMC.

[Nova]

Just now, Menor said:

Passed T-10 TLK's OD sales (and D2 and D3 are now about 50% ahead of TLK's T-10 numbers). I wonder if Cinemark is actually taking away business from AMC.

Probably considering AMC has few showtimes and people are just going to buy tickets to the theater that has showtimes available. That’s happening locally with UA and Cinemark taking business away from the two main AMC cause UA and Cinemark theaters are usually the last to start getting business in my area and yet this time around they’re keeping pace with the two AMCs. 

[WrathOfHan]

Doctor Sleep, Last Christmas, and Jojo Rabbit were all selling similarly at my theater last night (excluding the late Dolby show for DS which added like 20 seats; IMAX was selling jackshit). For a college town, the latter two had pretty strong results, but DS’ performance makes me think under 20M is happening,

[Eric Quinn]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Are you using the same theaters for TLK and TROS? I don't necessarily mean the exact same theaters. just that you aren't using theaters that had both but you only tracked one of them.  I.e. if TROS and TLK both were at Theater X but you're only checking Theater X now and weren't back in July.

 

 If so, TROS long passed TLK locally in your area.  So perhaps Sacramento is just catching up with your neck of the woods.

Well, no. With TROS, I added two more theater than when I tracked Lion King. And on that end (though I haven't tallied last night's results yet), TROS sold about 5,158 tickets, which is about 68% of Lion King. It should pass Lion King adjusted in my area, but it will probably take a while. At least, a lot longer than it did for you and @Inceptionzq

 

And btw I will get Frozen and TROS data up soon.

[ZackM]

I'm going to start tracking West Michigan this weekend.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Eric Torrance said:

Well, no. With TROS, I added two more theater than when I tracked Lion King. And on that end (though I haven't tallied last night's results yet), TROS sold about 5,158 tickets, which is about 68% of Lion King. It should pass Lion King adjusted in my area, but it will probably take a while. At least, a lot longer than it did for you and @Inceptionzq

 

And btw I will get Frozen and TROS data up soon.

Forgive me for getting into the weeds here, but did those two new theaters you added also show TLK?  Coz if not, I think it might be a mistake to adjust for them. My thinking on this has always been that there is a floating pool of movie watchers that will go to a different nearby theater if their local isn't showing it.

 

Either way, 68% of TLK sounds like a radical under-performance in your area given what we know from other markets (and here I'm including national data as well).  Hell, given what we know about the first day of sales. only 15.64m so far in your market doesn't make much sense at all to me.

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, StarWarsMemer said:

Omg you're so informative thank you 

 

So if TRoS sells an average 75 tickets daily from now on till a week before its release in your theater and adds 6K tickets in its final week, it would be 22% higher than IW's previews, or $47M. That's pretty great

I would not expect 75 tickets a day until about a week before release, FWIW.  It's gonna curve downwards for quite a while before starting to  curve upwards closer to release. 

 

Might wind up at 47m previews, but probably not in that exact manner.   So don't get too concerned if/when TROS starts doing under 75 tickets a day locally.

[Eric Quinn]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Forgive me for getting into the weeds here, but did those two new theaters you added also show TLK?  Coz if not, I think it might be a mistake to adjust for them. My thinking on this has always been that there is a floating pool of movie watchers that will go to a different nearby theater if their local isn't showing it.

 

Either way, 68% of TLK sounds like a radical under-performance in your area given what we know from other markets (and here I'm including national data as well).  Hell, given what we know about the first day of sales. only 15.64m so far in your market doesn't make much sense at all to me.

Yeah those theaters played the movie. It's just that I was only just starting my tracking when Lion King happened, and I realized I probably should have added those two after the fact, and course-corrected in the future.

[Eric Quinn]

Frozen II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	706	15,444	4.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 84

 

Comp

5.883x of Maleficent 14 days before release (13.53M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.341x of Lion King (7.85M)

 

Another great day. Even if it's a case of the film gaining ground, the fact that the gap between this and Lion King is getting smaller and smaller is still a good thing. We'll see what the next couple weeks have in store.

[Eric Quinn]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-42 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	164	8,177	28,932	28.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 33

 

Hey, an increase today in terms of seats sold. That's good! It was declining (although slowly), so it's cool to see a jump.

 

@Porthos The adjusted seats are now 5,186, which is about 28 tickets, but still only about 68%.

 

I dunno. Part of it might be a lack of good seats in the early hours. Part of it might be Lion King overperformed here. I don't know. I just don't know

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, Eric Torrance said:

Yeah those theaters played the movie. It's just that I was only just starting my tracking when Lion King happened, and I realized I probably should have added those two after the fact, and course-corrected in the future.

Fair enuf!  It's damned weird though. as there's under-performance and then there is under-performance.  Well, this is still pretty inexact in the end.  Be fascinating to see itself all sort out.

[Eric Quinn]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Fair enuf!  It's damned weird though. as there's under-performance and then there is under-performance.  Well, this is still pretty inexact in the end.  Be fascinating to see itself all sort out.

FWIW I was looking at other movies, and other movies are in line with your neck of the woods. It 2 was 24.8M, Once Upon 24.9M, Joker 22M. Hobbs & Shaw, another movie that I tracked before adding in those two theaters is at 18.8M, which is closer to Lion King though.

 

Also to be fair, said two theaters are by far the biggest money-makers, as they account for 36% of all tickets sold. Now one of them is consistently the highest-selling theater, but the other one is more on the average side, so it's really overperforming. I dunno, it could course-correct in the coming weeks when more showtimes pop up.

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Eric Torrance said:

FWIW I was looking at other movies, and other movies are in line with your neck of the woods. It 2 was 24.8M, Once Upon 24.9M, Joker 22M. Hobbs & Shaw, another movie that I tracked before adding in those two theaters is at 18.8M, which is closer to Lion King though.

 

Also to be fair, said two theaters are by far the biggest money-makers, as they account for 36% of all tickets sold. Now one of them is consistently the highest-selling theater, but the other one is more on the average side, so it's really overperforming. I dunno, it could course-correct in the coming weeks when more showtimes pop up.

I was gonna ask about those two movies, but I didn't want to look like I was pleading.   Other data points are useful as well. 👍

 

FWIW, there are the occasional weird spikes in either direction locally as well.  I already mentioned that I threw away my Joker comp as I KNOW it massively under-performed locally, leading to a current comp of 28m, which even I don't believe.  Conversely in the other direction, a comp against FB2 (which I KNOW massively over-performed locally) gives 18.3m, which I also don't believe.

 

(As a side note, there's a reason why I quietly dropped FB2 from all my comps a while back.  Part of it was having a lot more data on hand.  The other was, it was simply a terrible comp and I'll only ever use it if FB3 actually ever gets made in the near-ish future.  And possibly not even then, if the theater landscape changes too much.)

 

Either way, the occasional outlier happens but we still have to go where the data leads us.  Thanks for the extra info there, Eric.  Much appreciated as always.  

Edited November 8, 2019 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

On 11/7/2019 at 11:37 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Unfortunately no full AMC data for Frozen but I got data for 35 shows in NYC. Its not great. Well below TLK or Joker. Beyond these I see 2 3D shows listed as sellouts at 19th Street but I guess that is glitch as the 2d shows have sold very little. Similarly 6PM Imax at Lincoln Square is missing. Either that is a sellout(I did not see it listed) or it could be listed at a later date. Of course there is a possibility of group booking entire screen but I dont know Plexes will do that for Prime time PLF shows on Previews.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

AMC New York

Empire(6 shows) - 431/1810
Lincoln Sq(3 shows) - 124/1164
34th Street(5 shows)  - 124/1235
19th Street(2 shows)  - 31/326
84th Street(5 shows) - 84/883
Kips Bay(2 shows) - 95/348
Village 7(4 shows) - 64/426
Orpheum 7(2 shows) - 30/716
Newport Center 11(2 shows) - 65/212
Magic Johnson Harlem 9(4 shows) - 19/770
Overall(35 shows) - 1067/7890

 

Not much has changed when I checked this morning. Only 67 tickets sold across 35 shows.

Spoiler

AMC Empire 25,,201911212300,143,225,3359.07,600pm
AMC Empire 25,,201911220145,107,225,2513.43,845pm
AMC Empire 25,,201911212330,116,303,2724.84,630pm
AMC Empire 25,,201911220215,42,303,986.58,915pm
AMC Empire 25,,201911220000,17,377,280.33,700pm
AMC Empire 25,,201911220245,17,377,280.33,945pm
AMC 34th Street 14,,201911212300,49,219,1077.51,600pm
AMC 34th Street 14,,201911220135,41,219,901.59,835pm
AMC 34th Street 14,,201911220410,29,219,637.71,1110pm
AMC 34th Street 14,,201911212330,11,289,175.89,630pm
AMC 34th Street 14,,201911220210,6,289,95.94,910pm
AMC Kips Bay 15,,201911212300,54,174,917.46,600pm
AMC Kips Bay 15,,201911220140,45,174,764.55,840pm
AMC 19th St,,201911212300,16,163,271.84,600pm
AMC 19th St,,201911220145,14,163,237.86,845pm
AMC Lincoln Square 13,,201911220230,121,480,3084.29,930pm
AMC Lincoln Square 13,,201911212300,9,342,148.41,600pm
AMC Lincoln Square 13,,201911220200,7,342,115.43,900pm
AMC Village 7,,201911220015,26,105,571.74,715pm
AMC Village 7,,201911220245,11,105,241.89,945pm
AMC Village 7,,201911212300,21,108,377.79,600pm
AMC Village 7,,201911220130,18,108,323.82,830pm
AMC 84th Street 6,,201911212300,35,173,839.65,600pm
AMC 84th Street 6,,201911220130,18,173,431.82,830pm
AMC 84th Street 6,,201911220355,5,173,119.95,1055pm
AMC 84th Street 6,,201911212330,25,182,499.75,630pm
AMC 84th Street 6,,201911220205,11,182,219.89,905pm
AMC Orpheum 7,,201911212300,19,358,300.01,600pm
AMC Orpheum 7,,201911220130,11,358,173.69,830pm
AMC Newport Centre 11,,201911212300,27,106,499.23,600pm
AMC Newport Centre 11,,201911220200,41,106,593.68,900pm
AMC Magic Johnson Harlem 9,,201911212300,9,117,168.21,600pm
AMC Magic Johnson Harlem 9,,201911220145,7,117,130.83,845pm
AMC Magic Johnson Harlem 9,,201911212330,6,268,82.14,630pm
AMC Magic Johnson Harlem 9,,201911220215,0,268,0,915pm

Edited November 8, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1540

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1594

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7566	54	22870	33.08%	9	182

 

Only 21 tickets behind The Lion King's final total

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1543

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1599

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7614	48	22870	33.29%	9	182

 

Passed The Lion King's final total

[cdsacken]

I will die of shock if Frozen 2 does bad at AMC. Should slaughter TS4 numbers.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

177

1030

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

185

1695

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
877	95	9539	9.19%	9	55

 

I didn't do a count for TLK on the equivalent day, so no comp.

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

208

1030

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

185

1695

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
958	81	9539	10.04%	9	55

 

Adjusted Lion King comp: 11.94M

 

Interesting that Highlands Ranch sold zero tickets the past 24 hours. Still a great day overall, and the Lion King comp is looking good.