The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

Chase Pay brought back their $7 off Atom ticket deal today...I admit I took advantage to make the pain of Star Wars tickets much less (since my boys are insistent this Xmas)...others may be taking advantage for holdovers and especially Frozen, since people tend to use these codes for the movies they can get right now...

 

Just a presales note...

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Chase Pay brought back their $7 off Atom ticket deal today...I admit I took advantage to make the pain of Star Wars tickets much less (since my boys are insistent this Xmas)...others may be taking advantage for holdovers and especially Frozen, since people tend to use these codes for the movies they can get right now...

 

Just a presales note...

Why is chase pay doing promotions if it's dying? So weird. BTW guys if you like promotions check out Safeway/Tom Thumb/Randall's. Oddly enough they have really good ones. 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Why is chase pay doing promotions if it's dying? So weird. BTW guys if you like promotions check out Safeway/Tom Thumb/Randall's. Oddly enough they have really good ones. 

No idea, but I got my 4 Dec 26 Star Wars 1st show tickets for under $10 (girls still refused to go, so I got off even cheaper - 2 less tickets is a win for me)...and stocking stuffer for the boys is done:)...

 

Boys will be so excited b/c I said I wasn't gonna go til $2 Tuesday at my cheap-o, so we'd wait til February...but this did meet the $2 standard to see it earlier, so we're in:).

 

Now, I'm gonna be out full price for Jumanji, b/c I'm gonna owe the girls an outing...although maybe not, if there's another December deal (I would have got those tickets instead, but they aren't for sale yet:)...

[lockmom]

https://twitter.com/BoxOffice/status/1197286494421094400

still 130M

[lockmom]

 

Exhibitors seem to be preparing for a similar result. According to the Showtimes Dashboard tracker (owned by Boxoffice PRO’s parent The Boxoffice Company), Frozen II is currently booked for 28 percent fewer showtimes than The Lion King between Thursday night and the end of Sunday (based on a sample of more than 3,300 theaters in each case). The sequel has a 30 percent lead in bookings versus Aladdin at the same point.

 

from boxoffice pro report

[Nova]

2 hours ago, Nova said:

So it’s really odd but the AMC which has a regular showing of Frozen 2 that’s sold 142/142 still hasn’t added anymore showings for Thursday night. I’d be completely shocked if they didn’t add anymore but if they do it’ll be either later tonight or early tomorrow morning. So I’ll probably have to wait on doing a seat count until closer to when showtimes begin versus doing it in the morning like I’ve been doing. It’s actually cause I’m lazy and don’t wanna count twice tomorrow 

So the an additional regular showtime and 3D showtime were added since this post. The regular showtime since it’s addition has already sold 56 tickets. Again I’d be shocked if more 2D showtimes were added for tomorrow night. 

[XXR & Friends]

Frozen 2 -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 7:00pm CST -- 1 Day to Previews

 

 

Dolby / IMAX: 4 showings, 171 tickets sold out of 712 seats available (24.02%)

Real 3D: 5 showings, 21 tickets sold out of 446 seats available (04.71%) 

Digital: 11 showings, 173 tickets sold out of 1051 seats available (16.46%)

 

TOTAL: 20 showings, 365 tickets sold out of 2209 seats available (16.52%)

 

Comps to Final Tracked Numbers

Aladdin = 267 sold @ 7:00pm - Wednesday 

Detective Pikachu = 280 sold @ 4:00pm - Wednesday 

Toy Story 4 = 822 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

The Lion King = 1570 sold @ 4:00pm - Thursday 

[Nova]

36 minutes ago, lockmom said:

 

Exhibitors seem to be preparing for a similar result. According to the Showtimes Dashboard tracker (owned by Boxoffice PRO’s parent The Boxoffice Company), Frozen II is currently booked for 28 percent fewer showtimes than The Lion King between Thursday night and the end of Sunday (based on a sample of more than 3,300 theaters in each case). The sequel has a 30 percent lead in bookings versus Aladdin at the same point.

 

from boxoffice pro report

Can someone please make this make sense. I’m not trying to sound like an ass BUT you have a bunch of films doing single digits for the weekend and the majority of them doing less than a million for dallies. Why as a theater would you not try to book as many showtimes as you can for a film like Frozen 2? I’d understand if it was crowded and other films were doing well but the box office has been pretty dead since The Joker came out. This doesn’t make sense from a financial standpoint....especially when there are other times during the year when blockbusters that have “BOMB” written all over get the max screens at theater chains. 

Edited November 21, 2019 by Nova

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Nova said:

Can someone please make this make sense. I’m not trying to sound like an ass BUT you have a bunch of films doing single digits for the weekend and the majority of them doing less than a million for dallies. Why as a theater would you not try to book as many showtimes as you can for a film like Frozen 2? I’d understand if it was crowded and other films were doing well but the box office has been pretty dead since The Joker came out. This doesn’t make sense from a financial standpoint....

TLK had a ridiculous amount of shows though tbh. Also I'm assuming that the 30% ahead of Aladdin is showings, because the gap should be way bigger in seats sold.

[cdsacken]

Doctor of credit and slickdeals.net are great ideas for stocking stuffers and over deals. I don't maximize as well as I good but I get pretty good deals.

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local Chart behind cut

 

Spoiler

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Preview Start
Shazam!					129/2229	(Afternoon)	187/2229	(3:30pm)	$5.9m	4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame	3948/4,736	(12am)			4,853/5493	(9pm)			$60m	6:00 PM
Aladdin			98/1242	(12pm)					$7m	6:00 PM
Godzilla 2					135/1915	(7:45pm)	204/2150	(3:30pm)	$6.3m	4:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
SLOP 2			38/771	(4pm)	43/771	(3:15pm)			$2.3m	6:00 PM
Toy Story 4			165/2049	(4pm)	233/2049	(7:40pm)			$12m	6:00 PM
SM:FFH	142/922								$2.8m	Midnights Only
The Lion King	236/3228	(6:30pm)	294/3228	(6:20pm)	444/3228	(4:30pm)	557/3228	(4:30pm)	$23m	6:00 PM
OUATIH			117/1179	(2:15pm)	159/1179	(4pm)	335/1179	(4:20pm)	$5.8m	4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
IT Part 2	147/2764	(9am)			239/2764	(7:10pm)			$10.5m	5:00 PM
Hustlers			45/512	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (eps)			37/301	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.2m	7:00 PM
Ad Astra			26/602	(4:30pm)	26/602	(4:30pm)	41/602	(4:30pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey			31/512	(4:30pm)	39/512	(4:30pm)	52/1015	(4:30pm)	$2.1m	7:00 PM
Rambo			29/302	(4:30pm)	53/1242	(4:30pm)	58/1242	(4:30pm)	$1.3m	6:00 PM
Abominable			30/255	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	73/1969	(4:30pm)	$.65m	6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week)	104/2766	(9am)	172/2766	(4:30pm)			217/3536	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Gemini Man			38/1004	(4pm)	38/1004	(4pm)	78/1004	[6:30pm]	$1.55m	7:00 PM
Adams Family		(4pm)	53/1373	(4pm)	49/1373	(4pm)			$1.25m	4:00 PM
Maleficent 2	39/1154	(4pm)	42/1154	(4pm)	33/834	(4pm)	96/1425	[6pm]	$2.3m	7:00 PM
Zombieland 2	51/1114	(4pm)	53/1114	(4pm)	67/1177	(4pm)	95/1478	[6pm]	$2.85m	7:00 PM
Black & Blue			19/410	(4pm)			20/410	(4pm)	$.68m	7:00 PM
Countdown			15/511	(4pm)			19/411	(4pm)	$.52m	7:00 PM
Terminator: DF	71/1242	(4pm)	71/1242	(4pm)	76/1242	(5:30pm)	113/1242	(4pm)	$2.35m	7:00 PM
Harriet	25/512	(4pm)	25/512	(4pm)	27/512	(5:30pm)	29/512	(4pm)	$.6m	7:00 PM
Midway	20/512	(4pm)	23/512	(4pm)	22/512	(4:30pm)	27/512	(5pm)	$.925m	7:00 PM
Dr Sleep	23/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4:30pm)	53/512	(5pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Last Christmas	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4:30pm)	16/496	(5pm)	$.575m	7:00 PM
Playing With Fire	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4:30pm)	18/654	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Ford v Ferrari	50/1152	(4pm)	48/1152	(4pm)	53/1152	(4pm)	65/1152	(5:30pm)	$2.1m	6:00 PM
Charlies Angels	18/903	(4pm)	18/903	(4pm)	18/903	(4pm)	20/903	(4pm)	$.9m	4:00 PM
Frozen	122/1824	(4pm)	169/ 2724	(4pm)	208/2724	(4:30pm)		(4pm)		6:00 PM
					227/2724	(7:45pm)
Beautiful Day	30/492	(4pm)	30/492	(4pm)	36/492	(4:30pm)		(4pm)		6:00 PM
21 Bridges	26/768	(4pm)	25/768	(4pm)	30/768	(4:30pm)		(4pm)		7:00 PM
Knives Out (F&S eps)	42/602	(4pm)	53/602	(4pm)	67/602	(4:30pm)		(4pm)		7:00 PM

 

 

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Preview Start
Frozen	122/1824	(4pm)	169/ 2724	(4pm)	208/ 2724	(4:30pm)		(4pm)	6:00 PM
					227/ 2724	(7:40pm)
Beautiful Day	30/492	(4pm)	30/492	(4pm)	36/492	(4:30pm)		(4pm)	6:00 PM
21 Bridges	26/768	(4pm)	25/768	(4pm)	30/768	(4:30pm)		(4pm)	7:00 PM
Knives Out (F&S eps)	42/602	(4pm)	53/602	(4pm)	67/602	(4:30pm)		(4pm)	7:00 PM

 

Frozen Thur Preview Comps: 

(4:30pm) TLK:  $10.77m

(7:40pm) TS4:  $11.69m

[PKMLover]

Weekend Box Office Predictions for Nov. 22 - Nov. 24, 2019 1. #Frozen2

 

- $136.0M 2. #FORDvFERRARI

 

- $17.5M 3. #ABeautifulDayMovie

 

- $17.0M 4. #21Bridges - $13.0M

 

from boxofficepro

[Inceptionzq]

6 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

from boxofficepro

*boxofficereport

[PKMLover]

35 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

*boxofficereport

Can it open to 150? 

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Nova said:

Can someone please make this make sense. I’m not trying to sound like an ass BUT you have a bunch of films doing single digits for the weekend and the majority of them doing less than a million for dallies. Why as a theater would you not try to book as many showtimes as you can for a film like Frozen 2? I’d understand if it was crowded and other films were doing well but the box office has been pretty dead since The Joker came out. This doesn’t make sense from a financial standpoint....especially when there are other times during the year when blockbusters that have “BOMB” written all over get the max screens at theater chains. 

Probably depends on the studio's requirements and take...

 

If Universal said "keep Last Christmas as a holdover - to sweeten the pot, we'll drop our take to 10% and we'll let you keep 90% this weekend", whereas Disney wants 65% of the take per screen (and will sell 50% kid tickets on a screen)...so, you think you have a 50 seat screen...maybe you only sell 30 tickets (out of 250) all day to Last Christmas (all adult) but you sell out Frozen 5 times (1/2 adult, 1/2 child)...what would you get?

 

$15/adult

$10/kid 

AKA simple Math

 

LC = 30*15 = 450, then 450 * .9 = 405 to theater

Frozen = (125*15 + 125*10) = 1875 + 1250 = 3125 *.35 = $1093 to theater

 

But it wouldn't take much to flip the Math in your favor to keep LC...if you could get 100 seats for the day, you'd keep LC...or if you thought Frozen would never sell the front row, so you'd only sell 40 tickets per showing...etc...

 

This gets even more complicated if Disney is requiring screen holds over weeks...maybe you don't want the empty weekdays you're sure to get post Thanksgiving Sunday if Disney is requiring a full 2 week screen hold, for example...

 

And then there's the relationships to the studios, the desire to keep options for subscribers, the desire to NOT make it too easy for subscribers to go 2/3/4 times to the same movie in the same weekend (ala the Star Wars/Avengers fan effect - AMC and Regal don't want to make it so easy for an uber-fan to keep going all weekend, etc) - that's a total money sink and loss for Regal/AMC, etc...

 

[Joyous Legion]

16 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Can it open to 150? 

Plenty of room above 150. Below also a possibility for now.

[Inceptionzq]

29 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Can it open to 150? 

It definitely can, and I think it will. The presales data seems to support that, but that could change.

 

Menor laid it out pretty well

4 hours ago, Menor said:

OD presales should finish in 15-17 million range using conservative estimates for ATP and extrapolation, following I2 or TS4 that will be  45-51 while following TLK that would be 34-39 million OD. I don't think this will be as PS heavy as TLK which played like an MCU film. So a conservative pure OD shall be ~40 million. 

 

Sat PS should end up in 20+ range, should be 56 million+. Then 30% sun drop to 40 million range again. So conservatively I would say the OW should at least get in the 140-150 million range, with a good chance to shoot far higher if walkups and late PS are strong.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

One thing also is that Wang's MTC is expecting $160m. Since that is an internal number and presumably based on actual sales, I'd be more inclined to trust that. Plus taking the average of the safe $140-150 million and the optimistic $180-190 from our presale data that is around where I'm seeing it.

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

 

 

F2 Update(T-1)

AMC Prev - 69548/423462(2393 shows)  +1938
CIN Prev -  72582/434760()2896 shows +2785
AMC OD - overall 5733 shows 139546/1080420 post 6PM 2593 shows 83563/499107 +17042
CIN OD - overall 6418 shows 150223/993188  post 6PM 2318 shows 76732/365010 +17377
AMC D3 - overall 6036 shows 109969/1115644  pre noon 1379 shows 42894/224605 +9559
CIN D3 - overall 6384 shows 100802/991162 pre noon 1438 shows 36568/219277 +7049
AMC D2 - overall 6410 shows 199196/1159565 pre noon 1543 shows 71574/243211 post 6PM 2635 shows 47417/501267 +26272
CIN D2 - overall 6400 shows 181321/986569 pre noon 1422 shows 58771/214387 post 6PM 2286 shows 29812/360424 +23438

 

1st things first. the previews data is from morning and so its just what was sold until morning from night before. So no concern. I plan to focus on previews and will update numbers tonight and couple of times tomorrow.

 

Otherwise the news is showcounts for the weekend. At this point its ginormous way bigger than all other movies i have tracked since Joker. It will probably add few thousand shows more before the show day ends and so this is not the end.

 

I will wait until tomorrow before updating my predictions. So this is just raw data for now.

Quick refresh on previews as I had previously run it early this morning. 

 

AMC Prev - overall 2455 shows 78148/429072  +8600 

Cin Prev - overall 2944 shows 80301/439953  +7719 

 

This is 10 hours at CIN and 12 hours at AMC. Pretty good increase but overall sales at these 2 chains are just under 2m. So around 6m national. Question is can it double by end of day tomorrow for 12m previews. That is almost another 160K tickets sold by end of day tomorrow. Not sure if that can happen. I will stick to 60-70% increase. That should be around 9.6-10.2 just to be conservative if its dominated by 2d screens in smaller markets then average ticket price will be even lower. I would say 9-10m previews. 

[PKMLover]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Quick refresh on previews as I had previously run it early this morning. 

 

AMC Prev - overall 2455 shows 78148/429072  +8600 

Cin Prev - overall 2944 shows 80301/439953  +7719 

 

This is 10 hours at CIN and 12 hours at AMC. Pretty good increase but overall sales at these 2 chains are just under 2m. So around 6m national. Question is can it double by end of day tomorrow for 12m previews. That is almost another 160K tickets sold by end of day tomorrow. Not sure if that can happen. I will stick to 60-70% increase. That should be around 9.6-10.2 just to be conservative if its dominated by 2d screens in smaller markets then average ticket price will be even lower. I would say 9-10m previews. 

Sad that if it is 9-10m previews. It can not manage more than x15 internal multi to make 150m+ ow.