The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Sounds about right for the December 13 openers.

Jumanji seems like a 60 mil opener to me.

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, Menor said:

Yeah, that's why I'm estimating multiples below TS4. TS4 had 12 million Friday PS which went up to a 36 million pure OD. I don't think 40 is too much to ask from 15 million in PS.

based on current data, F2 needs to sell another 150K tickets for OD by morning tomorrow to hit 5m between the 2 chains I track so that its 15m national. Possible but late acceleration have not been great.

 

I will update OD number tonight for sure. I will skip D2 and D3 and rather run previews more than once to get run rate for final day.

Edited November 21, 2019 by keysersoze123

[filmlover]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

Jumanji seems like a 60 mil opener to me.

Given the way the holidays work it could open to $40M+ and still finish with $250-300M. That December 20-January 5 section is gonna be very good to it.

[Eric is Quiet]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Given the way the holidays work it could open to $40M+ and still finish with $250-300M. That December 20-January 5 section is gonna be very good to it.

I dunno, I'd be surprised if it has a better multiplier than Spider-Verse tbh

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Eric Plus said:

I dunno, I'd be surprised if it has a better multiplier than Spider-Verse tbh

We shall see. This always felt like another IT Chapter Two where it was always gonna see a noticeable drop-off from the previous movie considering what an utterly massive overperformer it was but will make a ton of money regardless.

[keysersoze123]

40m OW for jumanji 2 would be a disaster. irrespective of holidays its 2nd weekend drop wont be pretty as SW9 will have a mega release taking away all the big screens. Great run after that will only take it to 150m domestic. So it needs to open 70m to have a reasonable domestic run. Let us see how PS goes. 

[Alli]

First one opened to 36M and legged its way to 400M.   40M would not be bad at all.it opens a week earlier. has time to show off some crazy legs. as deadline said: Moviegoing typically doesn’t explode until after Christmas Day

Edited November 21, 2019 by Alli

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

40m OW for jumanji 2 would be a disaster. irrespective of holidays its 2nd weekend drop wont be pretty as SW9 will have a mega release taking away all the big screens. Great run after that will only take it to 150m domestic. So it needs to open 70m to have a reasonable domestic run. Let us see how PS goes. 

It would probably need to drop 65%+ in its second weekend for that to happen. Even with Star Wars arriving, I highly doubt that happens. Besides, it's not like January provides a ton of competition looking at the release schedule. What's supposed to be the big movies that month? Dolittle? Bad Boys 3? It's gonna be a really slow month (which will allow holiday holdovers to flourish).

[keysersoze123]

@captainwondyful Empire 25 has had significant boost to show count.

 

Empire - 995/4057 21633.55(19 shows)

LS - 395/1600 8943.55(5 shows)

Universal AMC(LA) - 725/2743 (17 shows)

AMC Ontario Mills(LA) - 734/2288(23 shows) @FlashMaster659 tracks this one I think.

 

I believe all these are well below TLK and probably TS4 as well.

 

 

 

[Nova]

The first Jumanji existed just fine with Star Wars. Don’t see why the sequel would have any problems existing with Star Wars too. 

[lorddemaxus]

25 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Given the way the holidays work it could open to $40M+ and still finish with $250-300M. That December 20-January 5 section is gonna be very good to it.

I mean thats true but I have hard time beliving barely more people will be hyped for the film and decide to watch on OW. Should have more anticipation than that. 

[DAJK]

I'd say Jumanji needs 50M to not at least be 'seen' as a disappointment (relative to expectations, not budget). 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

I mean thats true but I have hard time beliving barely more people will be hyped for the film and decide to watch on OW. Should have more anticipation than that. 

Tbh I don't think anyone could've expected the previous Jumanji would go on to make $400M+ even after its 6-day Christmas opening. This just might be a franchise where people just don't rush out on opening weekend.

[Inceptionzq]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

40m OW for jumanji 2 would be a disaster. irrespective of holidays its 2nd weekend drop wont be pretty as SW9 will have a mega release taking away all the big screens. Great run after that will only take it to 150m domestic. So it needs to open 70m to have a reasonable domestic run. Let us see how PS goes. 

That’s a low multiplier for this imo. Should at least be 4.5-5x

[a2k]

32 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I'd say Jumanji needs 50M to not at least be 'seen' as a disappointment (relative to expectations, not budget). 

Variety says 45 (40-50) with Sony saying 35 cautiously. Budget reported at 125.

 

IT1 to IT2 dom drop would give 261 to Jumanji3, down from predecessor's 405.

45 ow and 5.75-6.0x multi would give it 260-270 total.

 

250-275 dom + 250-275 os-ch + 100-125 ch = 600-675 ww on 125-150 prod budget would be fantastic.

Seems disappointing compared to previous one but that a flash in the pan run.

 

14 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

That’s a low multiplier for this imo. Should at least be 4.5-5x

Assuming a Fri od Jum2 could have done 40-45 ow and 9-10x multi. So about 5.5-6x for Jum3 seems feasible if the word of mouth is good.

Edited November 21, 2019 by a2k

[el sid]

Today I followed the advice of several members and checked its Saturday showtimes and sold tickets...and indeed this day is way stronger.

Counted today at 11am EST:
Frozen II:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 1.022 (total tickets sold for Saturday, 18 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 1.056 (19 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 557 (17 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 1.138 (25 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 859 (25 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 5 theaters till today for Saturday: 4.632.

For comparison: Its number for Friday in the same 5 theaters was 2.955 yesterday (which means counted also two days before).

21 Bridges (normal days):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 182 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 245 (total tickets sold for Friday, 8 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 22 / 51 (5 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 10 / 23 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 20 / 10 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 20 / 5 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 / 6 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 14 / 7 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): private event / 33 (still only 2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 28 / 48 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 46 / 47 (5 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 9/10 theaters till today for Thursday: 346 and for Friday: 475.

Yesterday: 250/366.
Comp: Black and Blue had on Thursday 244/262. 21 Bridges looks a bit weak between the coasts but B&B had the same problem. So judging from the presale numbers above the e.g. 8.4M prediction of boxofficepro seems (way) too low.

Edited November 21, 2019 by el sid

[Porthos]

53 minutes ago, Nova said:

The first Jumanji existed just fine with Star Wars. Don’t see why the sequel would have any problems existing with Star Wars too. 

The problem for Jumanji isn't necessarily TROS... It's being sandwiched between BOTH Frozen 2 and TROS.

 

Call it a mini version of what happened to Shazaam! when it was bracketed between CM and EG.

 

I've been worried about Jumanji for a while now and have been thinking that the only thing that might save it is either holiday legs, which are no joke for a film that opens "low" or if both TROS and Frozen 2 both underperform to one degree or another.

 

But let's say TROS does 600m for sake of argument and Frozen 2 does 450.  I'm expecting more on both, but that's a LOT of entertainment dollars sucked out of the market.

 

====

 

Now it could just be pre-sales which get crippled for Jumanji and then it becomes a WOM monster like its predecssor did.  Or, hell, pre-sales could be fantastic.  Just saying "Jumanji co-existed with TLJ just fine" might not be the indicator we think it might be.

[keysersoze123]

what is different from previous movie was that J2 is opening ahead of SW9. Previously it opened during 2nd weekend of SW8. So impact will be harder. I am expecting J2 to drop 60%. Based on show count I am thinking SW9 will have 55-60% of overall shows and that will impact everything especially movie in the 2nd weekend.

 

So it has to open bigger. This is without taking into account that Sequel to a 400m movie will be more frontloaded.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

 

And this is with One full day, the biggest day of PS, to go.

For whatever reason, this tweet was deleted.  Reposting the new version of it for when it goes away entirely:

 

 

Edited November 21, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

what is different from previous movie was that J2 is opening ahead of SW9. Previously it opened during 2nd weekend of SW8. So impact will be harder. I am expecting J2 to drop 60%. Based on show count I am thinking SW9 will have 55-60% of overall shows and that will impact everything especially movie in the 2nd weekend.

 

So it has to open bigger. This is without taking into account that Sequel to a 400m movie will be more frontloaded.

That's a good point, but can't discount holiday legs, even if the second weekend is cut out from under it.  Not with weekdays acting more like weekends.  Even with a depressed show count could still see a leggy run out of a 50m OW like its predecessor (which had to deal with Disney mandates over auditorium sizes).

 

What probably concerns me more is this year is practically the poster child for Beware of Sequels of Well Liked Films That No One Asked For.

 

The F2/TROS sandwich is just more on top of that.

 

But, hey, could be wrong about all of this.  Not a single ticket has pre-sold yet, after all.  Just ruminating out loud more than anything.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Porthos