The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

Unless cinema are closed, moving will be dumb.

[charlie Jatinder]

So Cine1 shows for Free Guy popped up in Harkins but for FRI only and not in California. The normal shows also had a bit of lift up but still less than half of what were for JC.

 

@keysersoze123 how is it doing in MTC1. I can't tell because you didn't post JC pre-sales I think.

[Napoleon]

I like reading this thread but I don't know how to interpret the numbers. What exactly are the presales showing by now for the Free Guy opening weekend? I hope it can do $25 million at least.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

I like reading this thread but I don't know how to interpret the numbers. What exactly are the presales showing by now for the Free Guy opening weekend? I hope it can do $25 million at least.

The big coverage data that we have, i.e. MTCs, they are bit low, $1.5M previews but local trackers' data is showing $2-2.5M. I am holding my projections till I see MTC1 data.

 

In case of 1.5M, we will be having $17M Approx weekend while in case of later $23-28M is possible.

[charlie Jatinder]

So I was wondering why so gloom in thread today, turns out USA has 250k cases yesterday. That's bad. Why can't you guys force vaccinate people. It's not like govt is all goody goody beacon of freedom in past.

May be need to publish death data by those who are vaccinated and those are not. If it isn't already done, may be that will motivate some folks.

[ThomasNicole]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So I was wondering why so gloom in thread today, turns out USA has 250k cases yesterday. That's bad. Why can't you guys force vaccinate people. It's not like govt is all goody goody beacon of freedom in past.

May be need to publish death data by those who are vaccinated and those are not. If it isn't already done, may be that will motivate some folks.

I read about this just yesterday, 99% of people who died in July on US didn't take the vaccine according to Anthony Fauce (White House Counselor).

 

On the hospitalization side, non-vaccinated people was 97%.

 

When you have data like that is clearly that despite the gigantic amount of cases, the people being really affected is pretty much people dumb enough to deny vaccines. It's shockinly how little effort government seems to be doing to actually make this people surrender, they are the main reason for this chaos.

Edited August 11, 2021 by ThomasNicole

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

With New York announcing vaccine passports in Sept and theater owners admitting to being open to idea, that seems the way to go. Of course it will become a logistical nightmare with other states (Red states) fighting it but to me, it's the only reasonable scenario

[Menor the Destroyer]

Free Guy MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 1395 (+212)

Seats Sold: 4646/202865 (+864)

Adjusted JC Comp (took this about 3 hrs early): 1.47 million

 

Friday

Showtimes: 3165 (+652)

Seats Sold: 7592/483845 (+1538)

Adjusted JC Comp: 4.64 million

 

Blech. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Menor

[filmlover]

If any movie is going to start a whole new wave of delays I highly doubt it would be Free Guy, which always looked like a wild card even pre-COVID (it's probably lucky if it makes $100M total in its original July 4th Weekend 2020 spot). Shang-Chi is going to be the next real test, since it comes from the hottest selling brand at the multiplex these days.

[tonytr87]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If any movie is going to start a whole new wave of delays I highly doubt it would be Free Guy, which always looked like a wild card even pre-COVID (it's probably lucky if it makes $100M total in its original July 4th Weekend 2020 spot). Shang-Chi is going to be the next real test, since it comes from the hottest selling brand at the multiplex these days.

 

It would've cracked 100mil pre-COVID. If Hustlers and other less bankable movies could it, Free Guy could. 

 

With Delta bringing us back to Feb numbers, there won't be a domestic 100 mil grosser again until Bond. That's right, unless we get the virus under control again, Shang Chi won't be hitting it either. 

[Eric Prime]

On 8/9/2021 at 11:14 PM, Eric Quinn said:

Don't Breathe 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	15	121	2505	4.83%

 

Comp

0.120x of Conjuring 3 T-3 (1.18M)

1.833x of Forever Purge T-3 (2.44M)

1.287x of Escape Room 2 T-3 (1.54M)

0.896x of Old T-3 (1.34M)

Don't Breathe 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	180	3497	5.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

 

Comp

0.119x of Conjuring 3 T-2 (1.17M)

1.956x of Forever Purge T-2 (2.6M)

1.241x of Escape Room 2 T-2 (1.49M)

0.947x of Old T-2 (1.42M)

[Eric Prime]

On 8/9/2021 at 11:16 PM, Eric Quinn said:

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	35	155	7501	2.07%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 807

Total Seats Sold Today: 34

 

Comp

1.033x of Snake Eyes T-3 (1.45M)

0.866x of Jungle Cruise T-3 (2.34M)

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	223	9187	2.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 68

 

Comp

1.098x of Snake Eyes T-2 (1.54M)

0.937x of Jungle Cruise T-2 (2.53M)

 

Well despite my meltdowns and everybody else seeing a decline, my comps for Free Guy inexplicably went up. Gotta love it 🙈

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, tonytr87 said:

 

It would've cracked 100mil pre-COVID. If Hustlers and other less bankable movies could it, Free Guy could. 

Looking back at what would have been the Summer 2020 movie season, it was set to open a week after Top Gun and would've been followed by Ghostbusters, Tenet, Jungle Cruise, and Morbius over each of the following weekends, not to mention would've faced close enough competition on the same weekend from Minions 2. $100M might have been possible (even just shy of the mark would make it among the bigger non-Deadpool Reynolds vehicles) but far from a guarantee since July 4th falling on a Saturday would've resulted in a diminished opening. It's all moot now because we'll never know.

[Eric Prime]

On 8/9/2021 at 11:22 PM, Eric Quinn said:

Respect Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	103	2706	3.81%

 

Comp

0.243x of Spiral Thu+Fri T-3 (906K)

0.204x of Cruella Thu+Fri T-3 (1.57M)

0.063x of Space Jam 2 Fri T-3 (824K)

 

Just to clarify, yes I know Spiral and Space Jam 2 are weird comps, but Black-led movies overindex here in Philly and these are the two best options I have. Either way, those numbers sound about right even in normal times and don't seem to signal anything bad in terms of the overall weekend.

Respect Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	182	3910	4.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 79

 

Comp

0.324x of Spiral Thu+Fri T-2 (1.21M)

0.336x of Cruella Thu+Fri T-2 (2.59M)

0.111x of Space Jam 2 2 Days Before Release (1.45M)

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, tonytr87 said:

 

It would've cracked 100mil pre-COVID. If Hustlers and other less bankable movies could it, Free Guy could. 

Hustlers went all in for women, especially WOC, a demo that's rarely targeted by Hollywood so that had that to its advantage. With its original release date, Free Guy would be releasing in a spot where it would be competing with half a dozen other movies going for the same audience in the same month.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/9/2021 at 9:27 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Free Guy Harkins California T-4 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	11	3,289	18	0.55%	$234	$13.00
Cine 1	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	$0	#DIV/0!
Total	11	3,289	18	0.55%	$234	$13.00

 

Just normal screenings are on sale now and they don't really start selling till final days for small movies. Sold just 10 seats in last 6 days. Need to open Cine1 ASAP. Normal shows are 28% of The Suicide Squad now. 

 

Addendum

Arizona Mills and Estrella Falls

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	4	631	28	4.44%	$336	$12.00
Cine 1	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	$0	#DIV/0!
IMAX	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	$0	#DIV/0!
Total	11	631	28	4.44%	$336	$12.00

 

Sales in Phoenix are better, especially at Estrella Falls. Sales are 116% of The Suicide Squad in normal screenings, but in here TSS was selling much better in IMAX and Cine1.

 

Free Guy Harkins California T-2 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	11	3,069	53	1.73%	$680	$12.83
Cine 1	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	$0	#DIV/0!
Total	11	3,069	53	1.73%	$680	$12.83

 

Comp

43% of Jungle Cruise Normal Shows - $1.03M

35% of The Suicide Squad Normal Shows - $1.45M

 

As a broken record, it need Cine1 showing but even without them sales are quite low in normal ones. May be Jungle Cruise overperformed in these but TSS comp isn't great either. Need big bumps.

 

Estrella Falls and Arizona Mills

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	4	631	39	6.18%	$468	$12.00
Cine 1	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	$0	#DIV/0!
IMAX	2	890	4	0.45%	$60	$15.00
Total	11	1,521	43	2.83%	$528	$12.28

 

Normal screenings in these two are actually not that bad. They are slightly better than TSS but TSS had IMAX and Cine 1 doing much better. 

 

Harkins numbers are par or worse than MTC2 ones. MTC1 would need to do heavy lifting.

[john2000]

Um yesterdays cases were 101k or so where the 250 came from ? @charlie Jatinder,?

 

[Jamiem]

Free Guy presales here in NZ for tomorrow, not looking good here either so some clear lack of interest as no Covid/Delta here at the moment, but I'm sure in the US/Domestic has a bit of both factors. Hopefully WoM is great and it has a solid IM and legs. 

 

Quote

Albany Event Cinemas, New Zealand - Free Guy Opening Day (12 hours before release)

 

10:00am 9/216

11:15am VMAX 5/185

12:40pm 11/216

2:00pm VMAX 6/185

3:25pm 14/216

4:40pm VMAX 4/185

6:05pm 15/216

7:30pm VMAX 13/185

8:45pm 11/216

 

Total: 88/1820 (4.84%)

 

TSS comp leads to $395k weekend.

 

Important to note no GC which hurts opening weekend as those sessions usually sell well and are a high ticket price.

Quote

HOYTS pre-sales nation wide for Free Guy opening day (Thursday) roughly 12 hours before opening

 

Mission Bay (5 Regular Shows)

28/420 - $504

 

Botany Downs (3 Regular Shows, 4 X Shows, 3 Lux Shows, 10 Total Shows)

Regular - 14/375 - $294

X - 11/940 - $275

Lux - 13/91 - $481

 

Chirstchurch (1 Regular Show, 4 X Shows, 2 Lux shows, 7 Total Shows)

Regular - 2/93 $30

X - 70/1108 - $1,330

Lux - 10/96 - $350

 

Hibiscus Coast (5 Regular Shows)

37/787 - $666

 

Hamilton (7 Regular Shows)

21/353 - $462

 

Northlands (5 Regular Shows)

36/724 - $540

 

Ormiston (2 Regular Shows, 5 X Shows, 7 Total Shows)

Regular - 10/168 - $210

X - 10/1110 - $250

 

Riccarton (2 Regular Show, 4 X Shows, 6 Total Shows)

Regular - 20/337 - $260

X - 71/1800 - $1,207

 

Sylvia Park (3 Regular Shows, 5 X Shows, 3 Lux Shows, 11 Total Shows)

Regular - 16/794 - $336

X - 51/2110 - $1,275

Lux - 16/112 - $592

 

Te Awa (2 Regular Shows, 5 X Shows, 3 Lux Shows, 10 Total Shows)

Regular - 20/324 - $390

X - 69/1920 - $1,621

Lux - 10/144 - $370

 

Wairau Park (7 Regular Shows)

31/856 - $620

 

Totals:

Regular Shows - 235/5231 (4.49%) $4,312

X Shows -  282/8988 (3.14%) $5,958

Lux Shows - 49/443 (11.06%) $1,793

 

All Shows 566/14662 (3.86%) $12,063

 

TSS was 1536/18301 (8.39%) $32,946 at the same period for opening day and had a $670k opening weekend. Would guess this is a bit more walkup heavy but see it being below TSS at maybe $500k if walkups are strong.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-2	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	24	8	2.00%
		Phoenix	4	6	612	13	7	2.12%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,317	15	7	1.14%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			16	26	3,128	52	22	1.66%
Free Guy	T-2	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	116	24	2.67%
		Phoenix	6	15	2,604	112	7	4.30%
		Raleigh	7	18	2,055	123	15	5.99%
Free Guy Total			19	60	9,006	351	46	3.90%
Paw Patrol (Friday)	T-10	Jacksonville	3	10	1,080	10	10	0.93%
		Phoenix	6	16	2,557	26	26	1.02%
		Raleigh	2	8	676	40	40	5.92%
Paw Patrol (Friday) Total			11	34	4,313	76	76	1.76%
Reminiscence (Friday)	T-10	Jacksonville	5	18	2,646	3	3	0.11%
		Phoenix	6	23	3,008	0	0	0.00%
		Raleigh	6	24	3,285	0	0	0.00%
Reminiscence (Friday) Total			17	65	8,939	3	3	0.03%
Respect	T-2	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	18	4	1.17%
		Phoenix	6	10	1,270	13	0	1.02%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	40	3	2.47%
Respect Total			17	30	4,435	71	7	1.60%
The Night House	T-9	Jacksonville	5	8	811	3	3	0.37%
		Phoenix	5	8	878	2	2	0.23%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,484	3	3	0.20%
The Night House Total			16	28	3,173	8	8	0.25%
The Protégé	T-9	Jacksonville	5	8	970	3	3	0.31%
		Phoenix	6	9	1,370	2	2	0.15%
		Raleigh	6	11	1,328	8	8	0.60%
The Protégé Total			17	28	3,668	13	13	0.35%

 

Had a little free time this morning so I took a look at next week's openers.  Paw Patrol seems to be the only one doing much; I saw a couple of shows for next Tuesday but didn't think they'd be worth tracking.  No Thursday shows for Paw Patrol or Reminiscence but there are plenty of other Friday openers to compare to by now. 

 

Free Guy is quickly losing the lead it had over Jungle Cruise.  It's still ahead 351-328 which would give it around 2.89m, but I don't see that sticking at all - especially with how MTC sales are looking overall.  

 

Don't Breathe 2 is staying around 50% of Forever Purge and Escape Room 2, both of which had sold 102 tickets at this point. 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Don't Breathe 2	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	34	10	2.84%
		Phoenix	7	11	1,056	15	2	1.42%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,317	38	23	2.89%
	Don't Breathe 2 Total		19	31	3,572	87	35	2.44%
	Free Guy	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	135	19	3.11%
		Phoenix	7	17	2,735	134	22	4.90%
		Raleigh	7	18	2,055	135	12	6.57%
	Free Guy Total		20	62	9,137	404	53	4.42%
	Respect	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	27	9	1.75%
		Phoenix	7	11	1,310	24	11	1.83%
		Raleigh	7	13	1,673	54	14	3.23%
	Respect Total		19	32	4,527	105	34	2.32%
T-8	The Night House	Jacksonville	5	8	811	3	0	0.37%
		Phoenix	5	8	878	2	0	0.23%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,246	7	4	0.56%
	The Night House Total		16	28	2,935	12	4	0.41%
	The Protégé	Jacksonville	5	8	970	4	1	0.41%
		Phoenix	6	9	1,370	2	0	0.15%
		Raleigh	6	11	1,328	8	0	0.60%
	The Protégé Total		17	28	3,668	14	1	0.38%
T-9	Paw Patrol (Friday)	Jacksonville	3	10	1,080	10	0	0.93%
		Phoenix	6	15	2,487	29	3	1.17%
		Raleigh	2	8	676	45	5	6.66%
	Paw Patrol (Friday) Total		11	33	4,243	84	8	1.98%
	Reminiscence (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	18	2,646	3	0	0.11%
		Phoenix	6	22	2,931	2	2	0.07%
		Raleigh	6	24	3,285	0	0	0.00%
	Reminiscence (Friday) Total		17	64	8,862	5	2	0.06%

 

Free Guy is now at .87x where Jungle Cruise was at this point.   While it isn't following JC's sales pattern, I don't really have a better comp.  Today's number was pretty far below any of the action comps; it could be more of a comedy pattern, but there haven't been any since I've started tracking.  The chart below shows a how Free Guy is selling compared to other action movies.  T-9 was the first day for Free Guy so that data point is total sales up to that point.

 

 

Don't Breathe 2 is maintaining distance behind Escape Room 2 (150) and Forever Purge (135).  I'm not sure if Friday being the 13th will depress Thursday sales, but they sure aren't impressive so far.  

 

Respect is staying right with Roadrunner (107) for the second day in a row. The weekend sales look much better though.

 

For the questions about how there are conflicting projections for preview numbers - the trackers are looking at pretty small sample sizes and comparing them to how other movies were selling at the same point in time.  Movies don't all have the same sales patterns, so we try to compare to movies that we think will preform the same way using genre, target audience, rating, etc.   There's no perfect formula to predicting a preview number, especially with the majority of sales coming on the night the shows start. As we get closer to Thursday night, predictions usually start to converge around the same number which tends to be pretty close. All that being said, I think the people on here are probably the best you'll find at predicting preview numbers.

 

*Note - I reordered my table to sort by release date

[BadOlCatSylvester]

So, what are we thinking for Free Guy now? Reaching $20M seems like a pipe dream at this point. If Deadline is proven right then Shang-Chi is absolutely fucked. There's no way Hollywood will not freak out when a Marvel movie opens to $23M over 4 days.