The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

AEG OW is like, 90% safe IMO. The fact that it’s not 100% safe, says something crazy about NWH though.

 

You’re only 10% away 😛 

[charlie Jatinder]

Just one day in Top 4 Popular Days of this thread. Confirmed NWH is smaller event than Detective Pikachu.

Edited December 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

On 11/30/2021 at 1:28 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Spider-man: No Way Home Harkins T-17 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	273	73,383	22,084	30.09%	$237,119	$10.74
Cine 1	24	7,227	5,274	72.98%	$76,114	$14.43
Cine Capri	6	2,673	833	31.16%	$11,031	$13.24
IMAX	3	1,335	1,042	78.05%	$15,630	$15.00
3D	17	2,590	447	17.26%	$6,209	$13.89
Total	323	87,208	29,680	34.03%	$346,103	$11.66

 

Comps

1.42x Black Widow Final - $19.4M (adjusted for Canada)

2.17x Shang Chi Final - $19.1M

1.74x Eternals Final - $16.6M

 

30% of Avengers: Endgame Final - $18M

 

Well, as with everyone, this sold ton of tickets. These took roughly 1 hour to track so quite possible we hit 30k while counting. Let's see how things go. 

FML

 

Spider-man: No Way Home Harkins T-16 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	352	90,411	24,910	27.55%	$268,339	$10.77
Cine 1	24	7,227	5,387	74.54%	$77,606	$14.41
Cine Capri	6	2,673	868	32.47%	$11,412	$13.15
IMAX	3	1,335	1,056	79.10%	$15,840	$15.00
3D	18	2,712	525	19.36%	$7,279	$13.86
Total	403	104,358	32,746	31.38%	$380,476	$11.62

 

Comps

1.55x Black Widow Final - $21.1M (adjusted for Canada)

2.38x Shang Chi Final - $20.9M

1.92x Eternals Final - $18.2M

 

So like this was a mistake to track this but things we do for love. Thanks @Eternal Legion for lending two hands for completing it. The problem is with shows that are added, they take ton of time to track.

 

Anyhow, majority good seats are all gone in best theaters like Cerritos, so this need way more shows, especially for Cine 1. 

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Just one day in Top 4 Popular Days of this thread. Confirmed NWH is smaller event than Detective Pikachu.

Holy shit, are those 3 actually pika pika? Wasn’t FFH PS also around then, maybe plus TS4 or something?  
 

Not even a single day from endgame, absolutely wild.

Edited December 1, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[Legion Again]

The classic 100k seat manual track, what a glutton for punishment 😬

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Holy shit, are those 3 actually pika pika? Wasn’t FFH PS also around then, maybe plus TS4 or something?  
 

Not even a single day from endgame, absolutely wild.

Well others are just excuse, Pika Pika is one that mattered.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-16	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	89	15,195	4,117	1,787	27.09%
		Phoenix	6	84	12,833	5,941	2,751	46.29%
		Raleigh	8	68	8,285	4,049	1,759	48.87%
	Spider-Man Total		21	241	36,313	14,107	6,297	38.85%

 

No signs of slowing yet.  This is close to 24 hours since my last update with about an 81% increase in sales and about 40% increase in show count.  I expect it to pass BW+Eternals+SC final sales easily by tomorrow (16,833).    The 39% sold will drop as more shows are added, but it's very impressive with this show count.

 

Spider-Man - $190,754 (13.52 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

ATP dropped a little with standard and matinee shows catching up to PLFs.  Standard shows account for 59% of sales now in these areas.

 

 

Showtime sample is up to 15,758 (1,504 PLF) with 2,126 theaters reporting.  Obviously there are a lot of theaters left to report, but it's already more saturated than Venom, which ended at 7.04 shows per theater compared to Spiderman's 7.41.

 

Venom T-3 weeks - 12,285 (1,978 TC)

Venom T-2 weeks - 13,768 (2,381 TC)

Venom T-1 week - 15,596 (2,716 TC)

Venom final - 21,288 (3,024 TC)

 

Shows by start time

 

Time	Shows	%
3:00	1849	11.73%
3:01-3:59	1228	7.79%
4:00-4:59	1966	12.48%
5:00-5:59	1150	7.30%
6:00-6:59	2181	13.84%
7:00-7:59	2609	16.56%
8:00-8:59	1539	9.77%
9:00-9:59	1133	7.19%
10:00-10:59	1626	10.32%
11:00+	477	3.03%

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-15	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	133	19,267	4,652	535	24.14%
		Phoenix	6	116	18,073	6,511	570	36.03%
		Raleigh	8	69	8,386	4,418	369	52.68%
	Spider-Man Total		21	318	45,726	15,581	1,474	34.07%

 

I probably won't update all of the charts and other things every day, but for now....

 

Massive 77 new shows added since yesterday morning, mainly in Jacksonville and Phoenix (only one in Raleigh).  Capacity issues should be pretty small at the moment until these start filling up.  Despite 15.5k sales and counting, there still isn't a sellout in the theaters I track.  Didn't quite reach the BW+Eter+SC sales yet, but soon hopefully.  I'm not going to throw out any comps yet because I don't really see the point.  In a couple of days I'll start looking at daily trends.

 

Spider-Man - $210,316 (13.50 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

ATP dropped a little more, now below Eternals.  As others have noted, the addition of matinee shows is driving this down.  I did want to mention something that I noticed today - the PLF shows in a few theaters have dropped the prices a little since yesterday, some up to $1.  I noticed it in a couple of AMCs that were pretty full already.  For my tracking, I left them at the original price as that was where most of the tickets were bought, but it would make a pretty big difference on a larger scale.   Here are a couple of new charts for breakdown of matinees and format

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	13,603	87.31%	$188,481.62	13.86
	Y	1,978	12.69%	$21,740.90	10.99
Grand Total		15,581	100.00%	$210,222.52	13.49

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	6,234	40.01%	$100,766.88	16.16
	Standard	9,347	59.99%	$109,455.64	11.71
Grand Total		15,581	100.00%	$210,222.52	13.49

 

 

Showtime sample is up to 21,779 (4,329 PLF) with 2,615 theaters reporting.  I'm not sure where yesterday's PLF number came from, but it was definitely wrong.  With 15 days to go, it already has more preview shows than any other movie I've tracked.  The most preview theaters I've seen since tracking has been BW with 3,109, so we still have a little ways to go.  It's now up to 8.3 shows per theater, well ahead of Venom 2's 7.04 already.

 

Venom T-3 weeks - 12,285 (1,978 TC)

Venom T-2 weeks - 13,768 (2,381 TC)

Venom T-1 week - 15,596 (2,716 TC)

Venom final - 21,288 (3,024 TC)

 

Shows by start time

 

Time	Shows	%
3:00	2,119	9.73%
3:01-3:59	1,794	8.24%
4:00-4:59	2,738	12.57%
5:00-5:59	1,700	7.81%
6:00-6:59	2,876	13.21%
7:00-7:59	3,663	16.82%
8:00-8:59	2,170	9.96%
9:00-9:59	1,719	7.89%
10:00-10:59	2,168	9.95%
11:00+	832	3.82%

 

I'm starting to see some shows pop up after midnight, even as late as 1:30am!

[charlie Jatinder]

The data point is MTC1 official statement, I will change when @keysersoze123 give us update.

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I'll drop it to you via PM sometime in the next 20 hours or so.

While you are on it, send A:IW & TRoS as well.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-16	Spider-Man	PLF	38	176	6,687	8,388	79.72%	$14.08	$96,759.87
		Standard	78	1,153	6,571	10,917	60.19%	$10.87	$72,621.40
	Spider-Man Total		116	1,329	13,258	19,305	68.68%	$11.92	$169,381.27
T-17	Spider-Man (Fri)	PLF	56	5,832	5,832	12,379	47.11%	$13.49	$84,650.23
		Standard	84	3,767	3,767	13,046	28.87%	$9.78	$40,375.80
	Spidey (Fri) Total		140	9,599	9,599	25,425	37.75%	$11.26	$125,026.03

 

Santikos Theaters tracking

 

Slight correction to yesterday, Santikos has 10 theaters, 9 of which are showing previews.  Updated the table today as well.  New sales are now up front.  "Total Seats" has been replaced with "True Capacity" and now excludes seats marked as unavailable.  % Sold shows total sold / true capacity.  

 

New preview sales were relatively calm, though there were only about 18 hours between when I started the two runs.  It's gonna be tough to climb too high without adding more shows (only 8 added since last update).   Friday sales look great already too.

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-15	Spider-Man	PLF	38	123	6,810	8,388	81.19%	$14.46	$98,495.84
		Standard	78	367	6,938	10,917	63.55%	$11.02	$76,441.76
	Spider-Man Total		116	490	13,748	19,305	71.21%	$12.72	$174,937.60
T-16	Spidey (Fri)	PLF	56	352	6,184	12,379	49.96%	$14.43	$89,247.60
		Standard	84	399	4,166	13,046	31.93%	$10.68	$44,485.33
	Spidey (Fri) Total		140	751	10,350	25,425	40.71%	$12.92	$133,732.93

 

Santikos Theaters tracking

 

No new shows added in the past 24 hours which means a lighter sales day.  Available seats for previews went from 31.32% to 28.79% - hopefully more shows get added soon.  Oh, another update to the table - ATP is now the average for tickets sold instead of average price for all showings in that category.

 

Breakdown for matinee pricing

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-15	Spider-Man	N	85	325	10,654	14,045	75.86%	$13.48	$143,662.61
		Y	31	165	3,094	5,260	58.82%	$10.11	$31,274.99
	Spider-Man Total		116	490	13,748	19,305	71.21%	$12.72	$174,937.60
T-16	Spidey (Fri)	N	71	335	7,697	13,419	57.36%	$13.71	$105,535.18
		Y	69	416	2,653	12,006	22.10%	$10.63	$28,197.75
	Spidey (Fri) Total		140	751	10,350	25,425	40.71%	$12.92	$133,732.93

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

While you are on it, send A:IW & TRoS as well.

 

I veto IW as it is far too far in the past (plus too many new theaters have joined/switched to reserved seating). Not happening.

 

If @Eternal Legion wants TROS data, I suppose.  All he has to do is ask.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I veto IW as it is far too far in the past (plus too many new theaters have joined/switched to reserved seating). Not happening.

 

If @Eternal Legion wants TROS data, I suppose.  All he has to do is ask.

Thing is even I need that data, he volunteered to ask, otherwise I was gonna, so...

 

Besides just like the other time you gave me data for CM & TLK, my goal is to see the trend and not the absolute number, which I suppose remained similar all over.

Edited December 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thing is even I need that data, he volunteered to ask, otherwise I was gonna, so...

 

Besides just like the other time you gave me data for CM & TLK, my goal is to see the trend and not the absolute number, which I suppose remained similar all over.

 

Sigh.

 

Fine.  Sometime today, though not for a couple of hours.  I'll pop it into the same PM convo I have at the moment with Legion or sent it to you via PM if you prefer that.

Edited December 1, 2021 by Porthos

[spizzer]

Exciting times after so long.

 

Also cannot believe how far this board's presales tracking efforts have come!  Long way from my old tally charts on BOM... 

Edited December 1, 2021 by spizzer

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Sigh.

 

Fine.  Sometime today, though not for a couple of hours.  I'll pop it into the same PM convo I have at the moment with Legion or sent it to you via PM if you prefer that.

I also would like all the data you’ve ever accrued. Please PM it to me asap. 

Edited December 1, 2021 by VenomXXR

[keysersoze123]

26 minutes ago, spizzer said:

Exciting times after so long.

 

Also cannot believe how far this board's presales tracking efforts have come!  Long way from my old tally charts on BOM... 

Hello. How about sharing data for DC area :-)

[spizzer]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Hello. How about sharing data for DC area 🙂

 

LOL If I still had time to put that together I would still happily be sharing here regularly!

 

Does anyone else cover the DCMDVA region now? 

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I also would like all the data you’ve ever accrued. Please PM it to me asap. 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

59 minutes ago, spizzer said:

 

LOL If I still had time to put that together I would still happily be sharing here regularly!

 

Does anyone else cover the DCMDVA region now? 

Not to my knowledge. Anyway I was thinking of BOM days. Back then we had few reserved seating shows to track. People use to go hours before shows to stand in line. I remember theater being packed for TDK where people had come in from noon onwards !!!! So major tracking was around sellouts rather than seats. you were among early ones to track DC area and I remember Tele tracking LA area after that. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The Thursday AMC for Cmon Cmon currently has 16 seats sold so far. Not sure how wide it's expanding but should do over 500k this weekend I think. Let's root for a little film