The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

80 more shows added in Harkins. 400 total already. Final may be what? 700? 800?

 

Guess I am not doing this.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

80 more shows added in Harkins. 400 total already. Final may be what? 700? 800?

 

Guess I am not doing this.

Yeah, we are in need of way more shows. I guess I am off hook for OD now

[charlie Jatinder]

We didn't get the numbers from our tracking but got official word on MTC 1. With that data incoming, I feel somewhat safe to call.

$40M+ 24 Hours Sales

 

2nd best after Endgame mostly, which I think did close to $42-43M may be.

[Porthos]

Gonna start writing up the Sacto report for tonight.

 

But for a Sneak Peek...

 

NWH Day 2 > Endgame Day 2 locally.

 

Spoiler

By 17 seats.

 

Spoiler

CONTEXT:  Okay, there's something like 60 more showings for NWH and NWH has access to a theater which didn't open until the very end of Endgame's pre-sale run.  Plus that replaced theater I've mentioned occasionally is doing very well, even on just a PLF for PLF comparison.  And this is about a week closer to release for NWH than EG was at this time.

 

Still...

 

Just...  Still..

 

 

Full report up in 10 to 20 min, I think.

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Gonna start writing up the Sacto report for tonight.

 

But for a Sneak Peek...

 

NWH Day 2 > Endgame Day 2 locally.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

By 17 seats.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

CONTEXT:  Okay, there's something like 60 more showings for NWH and NWH has access to a theater which didn't open until the very end of Endgame's pre-sale run.  Plus that replaced theater I've mentioned occasionally is doing very well, even on just a PLF for PLF comparison.  And this is about a week closer to release for NWH than EG was at this time.

 

Still...

 

Just...  Still..

 

 

Full report up in 10 to 20 min, I think.

Porthos would you be so kind as to drop a sheets friendly table of the Endgame Sacto counts? Would save me a little grunt work  

[XO21]

so NWH is the equivalent of No Time to Die in UK. *pandemic 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, XO21 said:

so NWH is the equivalent of No Time to Die in UK. *pandemic 

If you mean that it will make the top 3, boy do I have a club for you 👍

[charlie Jatinder]

24 Hours Nationwide Estimates

 

THU - $18M

FRI - $11.5M

SAT - $6.25M

SUN - $3M

Rest - $1.5M

 

Total - $40.25M

 

Day 2 seems like $6M+, for total of $47M. Safe to say 2 things,
1. $200M+ opening weekend.

2. Its no Endgame. We don't have day 2 numbers for EG, but 3 days numbers were almost +60% of day 1 per data we get from Wang, while NWH will probably be able to do +30% or so may be.

 

Other tidbits.

• It has crossed TROS Previews at same time in 2 days of sales, while TROS was 40+ days. I am thinking of $50M previews as of now, let's see how things goes.
• I guess that's it for now, I will see if I can share anything else.

[Porthos]

On 11/29/2021 at 11:15 PM, Porthos said:

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	225	14920	28199	13279	47.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Last 26 Hours*

13279

* Tickets went on sale at 9pm local time yesterday and promptly crashed all ticket sellers.  As of 2:50am last night, NWH had sold 6515 tickets.

 

No point to doing comps right now, so instead % of final tickets sold:

 

As of T-17, No Way Home has sold...

1.4440x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [19.06m]

2.2711x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [19.99m]

1.7219x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [19.97m]

2.0719x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [19.68m]

---

Regal:       3682/7071 [52.07% sold] 

Matinee:   1215/3855 [31.52% | 9.15% of all tickets sold]

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	273	19521	34161	14640	42.86%

 

Total Showings Added Today	48
Total Seats Added Today	5962
Total Seats Sold Today	1361

 

As of T-16, No Way Home has sold...

1.5920x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [22.00m]*

2.5038x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [22.03m]

1.8983x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [22.02m]

2.2843x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [21.70m]

* [adj for Ontario] (which I forgot to do yesterday)

 

Day 2 Adjusted Comp 

[Made under official protest]  [100% use at own risk — see cautionary note below]

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG	81.92		1107	16082		7/201	14975/21702	69.00%		49.15m
NWH (adj)	---		1124	13174		0/273	16037/19211	45.10%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 10 to 15 PERCENT, or even more. 

 

Regal:       3908/11152 [35.24% sold] [+226 tickets]

Matinee:    1335/4487  [29.75% | 9.12% of all tickets sold]

 

EXTREME GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO MYRAID IRRITANTS COMPS: (behind spoiler cut for space)

Spoiler

1.3742x TROS after approx 53 hours of TROS sales [54.97m]

1.0190x TROS at T-16                                            [40.76m]

0.7395x Endgame at T-16                                      [44.37m]

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

22 minutes ago, XO21 said:

so NWH is the equivalent of No Time to Die in UK. *pandemic 

Pre-sales wise bigger than NTTD. NTTD was well short of TFA and AEG in sales. 

 

Full run wise lets see.

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Porthos would you be so kind as to drop a sheets friendly table of the Endgame Sacto counts? Would save me a little grunt work  

 

I only have the final totals saved (Apple Numbers).  The Time Machine backups are on an old boot drive that I 100% am not going to play with, plus I couldn't transfer them to you anyway.

 

If having the final day totals of each theater is what you want, fine enough.  Be aware though, there's a LOT of esoteric crud that only makes sense to me, and even then looks like mad spaghetti code befitting a spreadsheet I've been tinkering with for nearly five years.   

 

EDITED TO ADD:::

 

@Eternal Legion if you want the day by day OVERVIEW of EG, sure, I could do that.  That's much easier for me to send to you.  And much prettier.

 

Is that what you wanted?

 

(tagged since I had a think about what you might want)

 

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@Eternal Legion if you want the day by day OVERVIEW of EG, sure, I could do that. That's much easier for me to send to you. And much prettier.

Yeah, this is all I was after. Don't worry, I will slap a bunch of caveats on anything I output from it in true Sacto spirit 😛 

[SchumacherFTW]

35 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Pre-sales wise bigger than NTTD. NTTD was well short of TFA and AEG in sales. 

 

Full run wise lets see.

Yeah, NTTD had big upfront demand here, but it went in to overdrive on release date especially for weekend shows. Actual presales were definitely weaker than Spectre.

[Porthos]

29 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Yeah, this is all I was after. Don't worry, I will slap a bunch of caveats on anything I output from it in true Sacto spirit 😛 

 

I'll drop it to you via PM sometime in the next 20 hours or so.

[LPLC]

Nothing can surpass AEG even not NWH.

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Nothing can surpass AEG even not NWH.

AEG OW is like, 90% safe IMO. The fact that it’s not 100% safe, says something crazy about NWH though.

 

Keep in mind also that if demand is there, NWH is 30 minutes shorter than EG and previews started ~3 hours earlier so there will probably be 10-20% more capacity for NWH OW.

 

At this pace though, AEG DOM could be in trouble if WOM is good.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

We didn't get the numbers from our tracking but got official word on MTC 1. With that data incoming, I feel somewhat safe to call.

$40M+ 24 Hours Sales

 

2nd best after Endgame mostly, which I think did close to $42-43M may be.

Based on this information, even if we extrapolate downward relative to EG and assume WOM isn’t as good as EG, I’m have a hard time seeing OW falling below TFA.

 

As of this moment I’m thinking the floor of OW is $230M and the ceiling is $310M.

Edited December 1, 2021 by VenomXXR

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

The fact that it’s not 100% safe, says something crazy about NWH though.

I can say be 100% guarantee that EG is safe.

[SpiderByte]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

We didn't get the numbers from our tracking but got official word on MTC 1. With that data incoming, I feel somewhat safe to call.

$40M+ 24 Hours Sales

 

2nd best after Endgame mostly, which I think did close to $42-43M may be.

What was Force Awakens at by that point?

[SpiderByte]

2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Based on this information, even if we extrapolate downward relative to EG and assume WOM isn’t as good as EG, I’m have a hard time seeing OW falling below TFA.

 

As of this moment I’m thinking the floor of OW is $230M and the ceiling is $310M.

Man, after two years of dead air (relative to normal) ending the year on the second 300+ ever would be nuts