The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Legion Again]

Friday accelerating by like 25% vs day 2 

 

Also it's above Th pace already -- clear sign Th is hurt by lack of shows imo.

Edited December 2, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

17 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

FML

 

Spider-man: No Way Home Harkins T-16 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	352	90,411	24,910	27.55%	$268,339	$10.77
Cine 1	24	7,227	5,387	74.54%	$77,606	$14.41
Cine Capri	6	2,673	868	32.47%	$11,412	$13.15
IMAX	3	1,335	1,056	79.10%	$15,840	$15.00
3D	18	2,712	525	19.36%	$7,279	$13.86
Total	403	104,358	32,746	31.38%	$380,476	$11.62

 

Comps

1.55x Black Widow Final - $21.1M (adjusted for Canada)

2.38x Shang Chi Final - $20.9M

1.92x Eternals Final - $18.2M

 

So like this was a mistake to track this but things we do for love. Thanks @Eternal Legion for lending two hands for completing it. The problem is with shows that are added, they take ton of time to track.

 

Anyhow, majority good seats are all gone in best theaters like Cerritos, so this need way more shows, especially for Cine 1. 

Spider-man: No Way Home Harkins T-15 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	352	90,411	26,317	29.11%	$283,144	$10.76
Cine 1	24	7,227	5,474	75.74%	$78,769	$14.39
Cine Capri	6	2,673	882	33.00%	$11,574	$13.12
IMAX	3	1,335	1,066	79.85%	$15,990	$15.00
3D	18	2,712	546	20.13%	$7,572	$13.87
Total	403	104,358	34,285	32.85%	$397,049	$11.58

 

Added 1539 seats, yesterday was probably around 2.5-2.8K. There was no show addition today, which hurt the top performing locs. The locs which had spare capacity increased well.

 

A sample of few locs.

 

Best locs

Cerritos 16 - 2831 vs 2731 (+3.6%)

Mountain Grove - 2394 vs 2365 (+1.2%)

Chino Hills - 2255 vs 2178 (+3.5%)

Arizona Mills - 2138 vs 2083 (+2.6%)

Arrowhead - 2022 vs 1944 (+4%) - added like 5 shows late day before y'day

 

Usually Average locs

Yuma Palms - 1350 vs 1272 (+6%)

Arizona Pavillions - 515 vs 464 (+11%)

Metrocenter - 405 vs 375 (+8%)

 

Today luckily no shows were added, I suppose we won't be lucky tomorrow, so this is probably last time I will track it. Unless I get may be 4 more hands.

 

Edited December 2, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

On 11/30/2021 at 11:40 PM, Porthos said:

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	273	19521	34161	14640	42.86%

 

Total Showings Added Today	48
Total Seats Added Today	5962
Total Seats Sold Today	1361

 

As of T-16, No Way Home has sold...

1.5920x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [22.00m]*

2.5038x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [22.03m]

1.8983x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [22.02m]

2.2843x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [21.70m]

* [adj for Ontario] (which I forgot to do yesterday)

 

Day 2 Adjusted Comp 

[Made under official protest]  [100% use at own risk — see cautionary note below]

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG	81.92		1107	16082		7/201	14975/21702	69.00%		49.15m
NWH (adj)	---		1124	13174		0/273	16037/29211	45.10%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 10 to 15 PERCENT, or even more. 

 

Regal:       3908/11152 [35.24% sold] [+226 tickets]

Matinee:    1335/4487  [29.75% | 9.12% of all tickets sold]

 

EXTREME GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO MYRAID IRRITANTS COMPS: (behind spoiler cut for space)

  Reveal hidden contents

1.3742x TROS after approx 53 hours of TROS sales [54.97m]

1.0190x TROS at T-16                                            [40.76m]

0.7395x Endgame at T-16                                      [44.37m]

 

 

 No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	298	21158	36426	15268	41.92%

 

Total Showings Added Today	24
Total Seats Added Today	2265
Total Seats Sold Today	628

 

As of T-15, No Way Home has sold...

1.6602x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [22.94m]*

2.6111x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [22.97m]

1.9798x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [22.96m]

2.3823x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [22.63m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

Day 3 Adjusted Comp 

[Made under official protest]  [100% use at own risk — see cautionary note below]

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG	82.33		566	16648		9/219	6257/22905	72.68%		49.40m
NWH (adj)	---		533	13707		0/298	17769/31476	43.55%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 10 to 15 PERCENT, or even more. 

 

Regal:       4035/12528 [32.21% sold] [+127 tickets]

Matinee:    1409/5023  [28.05% | 9.23% of all tickets sold]

 

EXTREME GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO MYRAID IRRITANTS COMPS: (behind spoiler cut for space)

Spoiler

1.4067x TROS after approx 77 hours of TROS sales [56.27m]

1.0513x TROS at T-15                                            [42.05m]

0.7608x Endgame at T-15                                      [45.65m]

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by Porthos
Put the wrong figure in the seats sold. Oops

[anti-Pedantic]

43 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Friday accelerating by like 25% vs day 2 

 

Also it's above Th pace already -- clear sign Th is hurt by lack of shows imo.

I hope you can get another sig where Charlie is sayin  "We underestimated [NWH]. We never learn."

[Legion Again]

Why is the Endgame adjustment so dramatic today vs day 2?

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Why is the Endgame adjustment so dramatic today vs day 2?

Wait, it makes sense with the difference in total seats sold. I think the seats sold today got an extra leading 1 as a typo?   
 

the ratio of total seats sold doesn’t make sense with growth in final comps, so I have no idea what’s going on and will just wait 😆

Edited December 2, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[Legion Again]

Starting to feel a little nervous about getting too noticed 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Oh and it crossed $50M in pre-sales. In 3 days. ~$50M.

 

Previews I don't see go below $45M at this point. Somehow I am feeling a bit dodgy on how its THU/FRI ratio be. On one hand it is deflated by matinee, on other hand it has huge no. of shows. 

 

I guess

45-50

60-70

62-75

50-64 = 217-259

 

for now. Let's see, how things change

Edited December 6, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[LPLC]

49 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Oh and it crossed $50M in pre-sales. In 3 days. ~$52M.

 

Previews I don't see go below $45M at this point. Somehow I am feeling a bit dodgy on how its THU/FRI ratio be. On one hand it is deflated by matinee, on other hand it has huge no. of shows. 

 

I guess

45-50

60-70

62-75

50-64 = 217-259

 

for now. Let's see, how things change

If $217M-$259M OW, $550M-$600M total ?

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, LPLC said:

If $217M-$259M OW, $550M-$600M total ?

More like 600-800

[john2000]

30 minutes ago, LPLC said:

If $217M-$259M OW, $550M-$600M total ?

Dude stop it with this ridiculous legs...

[LPLC]

24 minutes ago, john2000 said:

Dude stop it with this ridiculous legs...

Yesterday Charlie said he could see $500M-$550M and you said nothing.

[john2000]

Just now, LPLC said:

Yesterday Charlie said he could see $500M-$550M and you said nothing.

i said go back to that thread and you will see , i said to him the same thing i said to you , and his answer was that these legs COULD be possible  but its not what he is predicting though...

[LPLC]

Just now, john2000 said:

i said go back to that thread and you will see , i said to him the same thing i said to you , and his answer was that these legs COULD be possible  but its not what he is predicting though...

Yes it's possible, who knows ? It wasn't a prediction on my part but just a question.

[john2000]

even rise of skywalker got a 2,,85 multi , i really dont see a single reason as to why no way home wouldnt be in that range too AT LEAST.... Rise of skywalker got a B+ cinemascore  NWH even if its a mess of a movie from the moment that you know who ARE in the movie , you will see at worse a A Cinemascore and even a A+ i would say is possible....

Edited December 2, 2021 by john2000

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Oh and it crossed $50M in pre-sales. In 3 days. ~$52M.

 

Previews I don't see go below $45M at this point. Somehow I am feeling a bit dodgy on how its THU/FRI ratio be. On one hand it is deflated by matinee, on other hand it has huge no. of shows. 

 

I guess

45-50

60-70

62-75

50-64 = 217-259

 

for now. Let's see, how things change

 

This just feels too low at this point. I mean it’s already crossed final Keyser MTC2 tracking for SW9 previews. Even if we bump total tickets up by 15% on that thing to account for expanded/better coverage today, it likely passes it for real by the end of this week. Still gives it 10 days to expand.

 

TFA true previews is in trouble, I think.

[Legion Again]

If you wanna continue this convo, take it to the NWH thread.    
 

And true FSS legs are better anyway

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Eternal Legion said:

If you wanna continue this convo, take it to the NWH thread.    
 

And true FSS legs are better anyway

indeed , i got ahead of myself...lets continue with the numbers

[peludo]

If NWH opens to $200m I do not see how it can miss $550m, even if the film sucks like the other 2 Spideys MCU's films.

 

Asuming the OW range 217-259 that I read some posts above, I would see it in the 600s final (2.70-2.75 multiplier).

 

These numbers are always asuming the same quality than both predecessors. Of course, if the film is good enough, 700s would be the target and even EG would be in danger. But I do not trust in this hypothesis.

[john2000]

35 minutes ago, peludo said:

If NWH opens to $200m I do not see how it can miss $550m, even if the film sucks like the other 2 Spideys MCU's films.

 

Asuming the OW range 217-259 that I read some posts above, I would see it in the 600s-700 final (2.70-2.75 multiplier).

 

These numbers are always asuming the same quality than both predecessors. Of course, if the film is good enough, 700s would be the target and even EG would be in danger. But I do not trust in this hypothesis.

 

Edited December 2, 2021 by john2000