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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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spizzer Box Office Gold

spizzer

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Not to my knowledge. Anyway I was thinking of BOM days. Back then we had few reserved seating shows to track. People use to go hours before shows to stand in line. I remember theater being packed for TDK where people had come in from noon onwards !!!! So major tracking was around sellouts rather than seats. you were among early ones to track DC area and I remember Tele tracking LA area after that. 

 

Yes the entire DC area had only 2 theaters with reserved seating even in the early 2010s.  Back during TDK I think it was only the AMC in Arlington Courthouse that offered reserved seating.  For SM3 I sat in the bottom row corner of a native 90ft IMAX screen lol.

 

Tele and I put in a hell of a run in 2011-2012 when we first moved to this place, tracking Hobbit/Twilight/THG/Avengers/TDK.  It was so manual.

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Deep Wang Global Phenomenon

Deep Wang

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, spizzer said:

 

Yes the entire DC area had only 2 theaters with reserved seating even in the early 2010s.  Back during TDK I think it was only the AMC in Arlington Courthouse that offered reserved seating.  For SM3 I sat in the bottom row corner of a native 90ft IMAX screen lol.

 

Tele and I put in a hell of a run in 2011-2012 when we first moved to this place, tracking Hobbit/Twilight/THG/Avengers/TDK.  It was so manual.

 

Tele would rather cut his own balls off and staple them back on today.

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BestPicturePlutoNash Box Office Gold

BestPicturePlutoNash

Posted
Posted

i'm not tracking Spiderman because it's obviously going to be major and i'm not putting all the effort in. I'll just say that I believe 250m is the floor. Yes. These are the most sales I've seen since Endgame. Cinemark's XD screenings on Thursday are all over 70% full. The 3 and 645 will sellout by the 16th. The AMC and Dolby already have sellouts for the 7 and 8 showtimes. The 4pm IMAX is almost full

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I remember at one time there was a list of all the MCU previews floating around this forum. Anyone have that on hand?

Courtesy @charlie Jatinder:

Spoiler
Film Previews Friday % Share
Iron Man $3.50 $35.23 9.93%
Incredible Hulk $1.60 $21.47 7.45%
Iron Man 2 $7.50 $51.24 14.64%
Captain America $4.00 $25.70 15.56%
Thor $3.25 $25.48 12.75%
The Avengers $18.70 $80.81 23.14%
 
Iron Man 3 $15.60 $68.86 22.66%
Thor 2 $7.10 $31.90 22.26%
Captain America: Winter Soldier $10.30 $36.93 27.89%
GOTG $11.20 $37.85 29.59%
Avengers: Age of Ultron $27.60 $84.42 32.69%
 
Ant-Man $6.40 $22.65 28.26%
Captain America: Civil War $25.00 $75.50 33.11%
Doctor Strange $9.40 $32.59 28.85%
GOTG 2 $17.00 $56.08 30.31%
Spider-Man: Homecoming $15.40 $50.78 30.33%
Thor: Ragnarok $14.50 $46.47 31.20%
Black Panther $24.25 $75.94 31.93%
Avengers: Infinity War $39.00 $106.33 36.68%
 
Ant-Man and The Wasp $11.50 $33.73 34.10%
Captain Marvel $20.70 $61.70 33.55%
Avengers: Endgame $60.00 $157.46 38.10%
 
Spider-man: Far From Home $3.00 $36.25 8.28%
Black Widow $13.20 $39.50 33.42%
Shang Chi $8.80 $29.50 29.83%
Eternals $9.50 $30.84 30.80%

 

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cax16 Blockbuster

cax16

Posted
Posted
On 11/29/2021 at 10:37 PM, cax16 said:

NWH has sold nearly 1000 tickets for preview night already at my theatre, that’s more then any movies final presale number that I’ve tracked. (except EG)

 

I only have sales for EG after day 3 so I can compare better on Wednesday of this week but EG had sold 1440 seats at that point. 

NWH sitting at 1104 tickets sold at the same time EG had its 1440, good numbers for sure, they’ll probably start adding shows soon I imagine. 

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1948 2487 78.33%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1565 3300 47.42%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 18 HOURS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
10392 709 27390 39.22% 15 170

 

Showings added: 32

Seats added: 3372

 

AMCs sold 5896
Cinemarks sold 2036
Regals sold 1570
Harkins sold 890

 

Eternals final comp: 22.17M

NTTD final comp: 22.07M

Shang-Chi final comp: 22.67M

Black Widow final comp: 21.56M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 25.51M

 

Adjusted T-16 days TRoS comp: 40.30M

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2005 2885 69.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1748 3450 50.67%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
11135 743 30080 37.02% 15 195

 

Showings added: 25

Seats added: 2690

 

AMCs sold 6195
Cinemarks sold 2207
Regals sold 1752
Harkins sold 981

 

Eternals final comp: 23.76M

NTTD final comp: 23.64M

Shang-Chi final comp: 24.28M

Black Widow final comp: 23.10M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 27.23M

 

Adjusted T-15 days TRoS comp: 42.57M

 

I fat fingered one of the showings yesterday, so yesterday's increase was really +709 not +1059. I'll start doing daily pace comparisons tomorrow

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 11/30/2021 at 4:16 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-16 days Thursday(139 showings): 15171(+975)/34336(+996) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 23.50M

Black Widow final comp: 24.19M

 

T-17 days Friday(153 showings): 9839(+811)/44864 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 22.67M

Black Widow final comp: 27.86M

 

T-18 days Saturday(156 showings): 4268(+469)/43692 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 12.00M

 

T-19 days Sunday(142 showings): 827(+96)/42874(+2193) in 15 theaters

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-15 days Thursday(150 showings): 16180(+1009)/36391(+2055) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 25.06M

Black Widow final comp: 25.80M

 

T-16 days Friday(178 showings): 10620(+781)/49656(+4792) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 24.47M

Black Widow final comp: 30.07M

 

T-17 days Saturday(175 showings): 4958(+690)/47474(+3782) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 13.94M

 

T-18 days Sunday(150 showings): 950(+123)/45074(+2200) in 15 theaters

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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Courtesy @charlie Jatinder:

  Reveal hidden contents

 


BP seems wrong. Should be $25.2M per Disney

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-16 days Thursday(247 showings): 21730(+925)/32516(+153)

 

Eternals final comp: 20.55M

 

T-17 days Friday(309 showings): 16931(+1394)/41664

 

Eternals final comp: 27.56M

 

T-18 days Saturday(343 showings): 14104(+1750)/45852

 

Eternals final comp: 22.80M

 

T-19 days Sunday(285 showings): 5713(+815)/38205

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-15 days Thursday(254 showings): 22824(+1094)/33299(+783)

 

Eternals final comp: 21.59M

 

T-16 days Friday(316 showings): 18559(+1628)/42336(+672)

 

Eternals final comp: 30.21M

 

T-17 days Saturday(352 showings): 16093(+1989)/46773(+921)

 

Eternals final comp: 26.02M

 

T-18 days Sunday(295 showings): 7166(+1453)/39325(+1120)

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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
On 11/30/2021 at 6:00 PM, VenomXXR said:

 


Went back again into the archives and Endgame T-19 was at 2149 here, and T-15 was 2590. So probably about 2450 T-16 to equalize today (I only recorded numbers on Sat and Wed from what I recall). 
 

So that points to a previews number nearly at $50M without ATP adjustment….

 

16 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

24 Hours Nationwide Estimates

 

THU - $18M

FRI - $11.5M

SAT - $6.25M

SUN - $3M

Rest - $1.5M

 

Total - $40.25M

 

Day 2 seems like $6M+, for total of $47M. Safe to say 2 things,
1. $200M+ opening weekend.

2. Its no Endgame. We don't have day 2 numbers for EG, but 3 days numbers were almost +60% of day 1 per data we get from Wang, while NWH will probably be able to do +30% or so may be.

 

Other tidbits.

  • It has crossed TROS Previews at same time in 2 days of sales, while TROS was 40+ days. I am thinking of $50M previews as of now, let's see how things goes.
  • I guess that's it for now, I will see if I can share anything else.

 

Told You So Comedy GIF by NETFLIX

 

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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/19/2019 at 5:32 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Quick update on SW9 previews. This is about 3 hours after last one.

 

MTC1 Prev - overall 6802 shows 494426/1023251 7215149.27
MTC2 Prev - overall 4199 shows 324066/554210 3969825.00

 

Trickle of shows are being added as well. Let us see how things go with walk ups. I will update at least MTC1 once in the evening and will update both late in the night. Dont forget unlike normal movies this has preview shows as late as 530AM !!!!

 

18 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spiderman No Way Home MTC2 

Previews(T-16) - 293140/737244 3798686.59 5105 shows +33316

Friday(T-17) - 212143/894524 2576216.87 5783 shows +27051

Saturday(T-18) - 138355/912800 1657003.94 5929 shows +27550

 

Another big Jump in show count and crazy strong day as well. Its well ahead of SW9 and so unchartered territory for me(I did not track Endgame). I am not sure how final week PS would be but there is limited potential with peak time shows close to sellouts. I already see really late shows put in which were non existent in COVID era. 



SW9 Previews (T-16)

MTC1 - overall 5141 shows 314867/857840 4700212.38  +3516
MTC2 - overall 3063 shows 207321/448881 2637776.00 +2660

 

TROS increased 56.3% at MTC2 from T-16 to final run from Keyser. I can't imagine NWH is more front loaded than TROS (though it could be on par...)

Maybe I'm putting the cart before the horse here but could this not challenge AEG previews if it improves at an "expected" rate? Even without increased ATP (which may cancel out the an MTC2 over index), the numbers are right at $60M.....

 

Edited by VenomXXR
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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted

Ok, I didn't make as much progress as I'd hoped, but I do have one theater chain working.

 

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home
Various theater chains (Michigan)
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting
           
12/1/2021 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 102 12755 18730 5975 31.90%

 

 

 

And I have TROS comps from the same set of theaters.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Various theater chains (Michigan)
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting
           
12/4/2019 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 59 4739 10869 6130 56.40%

 

 

The difference in # of shows is entirely captured by the early screenings for Spider-Man.  Otherwise they have the same number of shows.

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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted

It helps that i'm pretty sure Spider man has the earliest previews of a Marvel movie so far, starting at 3PM, unless things are absolutley insane it's going to be more front-loaded simply due to the front being larger. If it's busy enough that Thursday is basically at capacity everywhere and things DO end up being forced to spill over into later in the weekend..... well the numbers will be rather big.

It's been awhile but i think the overall record number of tickets sold over a weekend at my theater is just under 4k for The Lion King live action, 

So far Spiderman is just under 800 tickets for the weekend here.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

 

 


 

SW9 Previews (T-16)

MTC1 - overall 5141 shows 314867/857840 4700212.38  +3516
MTC2 - overall 3063 shows 207321/448881 2637776.00 +2660

 

TROS increased 56.3% at MTC2 from T-16 to final run from Keyser. I can't imagine NWH is more front loaded than TROS (though it could be on par...)

Maybe I'm putting the cart before the horse here but could this not challenge AEG previews if it improves at an "expected" rate? Even without increased ATP (which may cancel out the an MTC2 over index), the numbers are right at $60M.....

 

We have more coverage now at MTC2 than back then. I think about 20% more as Keyser did not track all the MTC2 theaters then (I had 3384 shows for TROS, so 10% more coverage than Keyser and even my coverage has increased around 10% since that time). So don't take that comp too literally. 

Edited by Menor
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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted
On 12/1/2021 at 12:40 AM, Eric Madrigal said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 176 13,128 32,356 40.57%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 47

Total Seats Added Today: 6,874

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,358

 

Comp

1.729x of Black Widow's Final Count (22.82M)

2.506x of Venom 2's Final Count (29.07M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.080x of Star Wars: TROS T-16 (43.2M)

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 197 13,851 36,796 37.64%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 21

Total Seats Added Today: 4,440

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 723

 

Comp

1.824x of Black Widow's Final Count (24.08M)

2.644x of Venom 2's Final Count (30.67M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.117x of Star Wars: TROS T-15 (44.68M)

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted
On 12/1/2021 at 12:47 AM, Eric Madrigal said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 50 1465 9642 15.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 52 1475 9706 15.20%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 64

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spiderman No Way Home MTC2 

Previews(T-16) - 293140/737244 3798686.59 5105 shows +33316

Friday(T-17) - 212143/894524 2576216.87 5783 shows +27051

Saturday(T-18) - 138355/912800 1657003.94 5929 shows +27550

Spider-man No Way Home MTC2

Previews(T-15) -  326221/786783 4220884.58 5418 shows +33081

Friday(T-16) -      245668/964001 2963908.30 6225 shows +33525

Saturday(T-17) - 166676/981947 1988769.52 6370 shows +28321

 

Another crazy strong day. No signs of slowing down so far. 

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