The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[The Panda]

6 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

2013 Oscar season was the best, All the BP nominees grossed big-big raw number after nom, and they did so as a whole!

 

Still wonder why there was such a huge influx that year..... 

The movies were studio releases and GA friendly overall.

 

Gravity was a big hit pre-Oscar, as was Captain Phillips.

 

WOWS had Leo, and American Hustle was star studded with J-Law fresh off of Catching Fire and another 100m Oscar win.

 

Her, Nebraska, DBC, Philomena and 12YAS didn’t do huge numbers.

 

2012 was impressive, you had 6 100m movies, 1 90m Movie and the two that weren’t near 100m were a foreign language drama and a Sundance summer release

 

 

Edited January 26, 2018 by New Year New Panda

[WrathOfHan]

Final preview counts:

 

Maze Runner: 42/124

Hostiles: 28/78

 

Maze Runner comps:

 

12% of Ragnarok (14.7M)

13% of Justice League (12.2M)

50% of Blade Runner (16.4M)

50% of Kingsman (19.5M)

130% of HDD (33.8M)

150% of Insidious (44.4M)

155% of Jigsaw (25.7M)

 

Hard to say what direction this could go given it has the audience of a horror film yet behavior of a franchise film.

 

Hostiles:

 

70% of AM (11.8M)

70% of THB (15M)

75% of The Post (14.6M)

90% of Logan Lucky (6.8M)

90% of 12 Strong (14.2M)

100% of Den of Thieves (15.2M)

110% of The Commuter (15.1M)

215% of Only the Brave (12.9M)

 

GG Entertainment Studios  

[WrathOfHan]

What if Hostiles wins the weekend?  

 

[WrathOfHan]

@DAJK is your theater gettimg Hostiles?

[Pinacolada]

53 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Final preview counts:

 

Maze Runner: 42/124

Hostiles: 28/78

 

Maze Runner comps:

 

12% of Ragnarok (14.7M)

13% of Justice League (12.2M)

50% of Blade Runner (16.4M)

50% of Kingsman (19.5M)

130% of HDD (33.8M)

150% of Insidious (44.4M)

155% of Jigsaw (25.7M)

 

Hard to say what direction this could go given it has the audience of a horror film yet behavior of a franchise film.

 

Hostiles:

 

70% of AM (11.8M)

70% of THB (15M)

75% of The Post (14.6M)

90% of Logan Lucky (6.8M)

90% of 12 Strong (14.2M)

100% of Den of Thieves (15.2M)

110% of The Commuter (15.1M)

215% of Only the Brave (12.9M)

 

GG Entertainment Studios  

Can anyone explain what these statistics mean? Do they bode well for Hostiles?

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Pinacolada said:

Can anyone explain what these statistics mean? Do they bode well for Hostiles?

These numbers are how much tickets Hostiles sold tonight at my theater compared to similar movies, and the numbers in parentheses are what they'd be if the weekend gross matched. 

[Hiccup23]

Final for Maze Runner 3

 

Maze Runner: The Death Cure

140

848

16.5%

[DAJK]

28 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

@DAJK is your theater gettimg Hostiles?

No  We are getting Darkest Hour and 3 Billboards though, so I'll have a chance to catch those 2

[MrPink]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Hostiles:

 

70% of AM (11.8M)

70% of THB (15M)

75% of The Post (14.6M)

90% of Logan Lucky (6.8M)

90% of 12 Strong (14.2M)

100% of Den of Thieves (15.2M)

110% of The Commuter (15.1M)

215% of Only the Brave (12.9M)

 

GG Entertainment Studios  

 

Double digits would be a win. Get dat money Baleman

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, Barnack said:

oscar-nominated JL?

[WrathOfHan]

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

 

Spoiler

Hostiles:

 

10:20: 19/78

1:35: 12/78

4:40: 0/78

7:45: 10/78

10:45: 0/78

 

Maze Runner:

 

10:00: 11/124

1:10: 2/124

4:20: 7/124

7:30: 20/124

9:15: 0/67

10:45: 0/124

 

 

12 Strong:

 

10:00: 8/113

1:00: 9/113

4:00: 0/113

7:00: 0/113

10:00: 0/113

 

The Post:

 

11:00: 2/78

1:45: 7/78

4:30: 6/78

7:15: 0/78

10:10: 0/78

 

Shape of Water: 

 

10:55: 11/78

2:00: 4/78

7:35: 0/78

 

Showman:

 

11:35: 2/63

2:05: 4/63

4:40: 0/63

7:10: 0/63

9:45: 0/63

 

Thieves:

 

10:15: 3/78

1:25: 0/78

4:35: 2/78

7:45: 0/78

10:50: 0/78

 

Jumanji:

 

10:30: 0/78

1:20 3D: 0/78

4:15: 0/78

7:05 3D: 4/78

9:55: 0/78

 

Commuter:

 

11:45: 4/78

2:30: 0/78

5:15: 0/78

7:50: 0/78

10:30: 0/78

 

My Girl:

 

11:10: 2/67

1:40: 0/67

4:10: 0/67

6:40: 0/67

10:25: 0/69

 

Hostiles: 41/390

Maze Runner: 40/687

12 Strong: 17/565

The Post: 15/390

Shape of Water: 15/234

Showman: 6/315

Thieves: 5/390

Jumanji: 5/390

Commuter: 4/390

My Girl: 2/337

3B, Paddington, and Star Wars have sold nothing.

 

Maze Runner:

 

13% of Ragnarok (16.4M)

15% of Justice League (14.1M)

75% of Kingsman (29.3M)

85% of HDD (22.1M)

105% of Blade Runner (34.4M)

140% of Insidious (41.4M)

150% of Jigsaw (24.6M)

 

Ragnarok and JL are going to be the comps to go with IMO. Presales in general have been weak as hell.

 

Hostiles:

 

50% of The Post (9.7M)

55% of OE (15.3M)

95% of 12 Strong (15M)

105% of The Commuter (14.4M)

130% of THB (27.8M)

150% of AM (25.2M)

205% of Logan Lucky (15.6M)

 

This is performing SUPER close to 12 Strong and The Commuter for both tomorrow and previews (Den of Thieves was very walkup based last week, so I'm not comparing it here). You've been warned.

 

[The Panda]

Han, you live in old people ville Florida.  Of course Hostiles is selling well.  Tele’s old and loved Hostiles, therefore all old people do.

 

Its in the name.  Old People are hostile therefore they see hostiles

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, New Year New Panda said:

The movies were studio releases and GA friendly overall.

 

Gravity was a big hit pre-Oscar, as was Captain Phillips.

 

WOWS had Leo, and American Hustle was star studded with J-Law fresh off of Catching Fire and another 100m Oscar win.

 

Her, Nebraska, DBC, Philomena and 12YAS didn’t do huge numbers.

 

2012 was impressive, you had 6 100m movies, 1 90m Movie and the two that weren’t near 100m were a foreign language drama and a Sundance summer release

 

 

erm...when I say 2013 oscar season, I was referring all those nominees from 2012 which did so well after the oscar-nom 2013

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, New Year New Panda said:

Han, you live in old people ville Florida.  Of course Hostiles is selling well.  Tele’s old and loved Hostiles, therefore all old people do.

 

Its in the name.  Old People are hostile therefore they see hostiles

My comps have been pretty great the past few weeks save for The Post (a little high but a lot of comps weren't far off from the 19.4M). Everyone thought I was nuts for bringing up the possibility of Paddington being around 12M, and we all know how that went  There's a reason Entertainment Studios has this tracking at 12M

Edited January 26, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, New Year New Panda said:

Han, you live in old people ville Florida.  Of course Hostiles is selling well.  Tele’s old and loved Hostiles, therefore all old people do.

 

Its in the name.  Old People are hostile therefore they see hostiles

I live in a section of Florida highly populated by seniors (though a more upscale crowd) and my theater didn't even get Hostiles (they opted to get the Oscar films back instead).  Granted they currently have half of their 20 screens closed off due to renovations.

Edited January 26, 2018 by filmlover

[DAJK]

@WrathOfHan and his theatre comps have been surprisingly reliable given the small sample size. I really want to thank you for putting in so much effort into keeping track of all this

[The Panda]

I do think seeing samples of theaters and presale numbers can tell you a little bit about how a movie’s playing.  In many cases it likely will match up similarly to what’s actually happening.

 

However you have to be careful, as it’s obvious certain movies play better in certain areas.  It’s a single datapoint.

 

Florida is probably more like the General american public then say Panhandle Oklahoma, but it’s definitely more of a grain of salt data point.

 

That being said, I don’t see why Hostiles couldn’t open over 10m.

[DAJK]

54 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

I do think seeing samples of theaters and presale numbers can tell you a little bit about how a movie’s playing.  In many cases it likely will match up similarly to what’s actually happening.

 

However you have to be careful, as it’s obvious certain movies play better in certain areas.  It’s a single datapoint.

 

Florida is probably more like the General american public then say Panhandle Oklahoma, but it’s definitely more of a grain of salt data point.

 

That being said, I don’t see why Hostiles couldn’t open over 10m.

It's something I've noticed I really need to take into account when looking at numbers from my theatre due to the small sample size. I've always had to take that considering I live in a smaller city, big events in town are always going to affect a movie's attendance. If something like The Post was opening the same weekend a vintage car show was happening in town, you would expect numbers to be lower than expected with the seniors crowd being distracted. Kids shows play extremely well here as our town's 2 big demographics are young families and retirees. Oscar films open like blockbusters, and their legs are like typical horror legs. Not a lot of 20-somethings in town, so a lot of horror flicks don't do well, and action films have a hard time unless they appeal to seniors.

 

YA movies used to be big here. I'm pretty sure Catching Fire made over our equivalent of 520M, Scorch Trials opened to 52M, and even the 5th Wave made 60M during its 2-week run. Can really be chalked up to, in part, teenagers not having much to do in a place like this other than go to the movies or get high

[MCKillswitch123]

If Hostiles actually gets into the double digit territory, that would put Entertainment Studios at 2/3 in terms of hits, between this and 47 Meters Down  

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

I guess my main issue with Hostiles is it needs an incredible PTA hold to even cross 10 mil. Some say impossible. But perhaps it just didn’t click with the limited audience