The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MovieMan89]

4 hours ago, a2knet said:

50-60 4-day is possible it seems.

21 + 17 (-19%) + 11.5 (-32%) + 5.5 (-52%) = 55

I'd be pretty shocked if it did that much on Thursday. I feel like Thursday is a pretty big wild card and the numbers could be really low even if it does well over the 3 day. It's just such a bizarre release date for something that doesn't have loads of built in hype and awareness. Can imagine plenty of the GA being completely oblivious to it being out on Thursday. 

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'd be pretty shocked if it did that much on Thursday. I feel like Thursday is a pretty big wild card and the numbers could be really low even if it does well over the 3 day. It's just such a bizarre release date for something that doesn't have loads of built in hype and awareness. Can imagine plenty of the GA being completely oblivious to it being out on Thursday. 

haha, i thought it was FSSM. didn't even know it's releasing on thrusday.

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'd be pretty shocked if it did that much on Thursday. I feel like Thursday is a pretty big wild card and the numbers could be really low even if it does well over the 3 day

Even considering the movie would have opened a day before (at least in Canada you can buy ticket for this Wednesday the 28th and they tend to match the US nowaday) ?

 

They are going for a 5 days of BO opening weekend...

Edited March 27, 2018 by Barnack

[MovieMan89]

Has the Thursday release thing ever even been tried with an unestablished franchise? It's mainly been an exclusive thing to the '99-'09 LucasFilm releases or Xmas Day when it falls on Thursday. There's also Matrix Reloaded, Hangover 2, Pirates 3. What else? 

Edited March 27, 2018 by MovieMan89

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Has the Thursday release thing ever even been tried with an unestablished franchise? It's mainly been an exclusive thing to the '99-'09 LucasFilm releases or Xmas Day when it falls on Thursday. There's also Matrix Reloaded, Hangover 2, Pirates 3. What else? 

Kung Fu Panda 2

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Kung Fu Panda 2

So basically it's either a Memorial Day weekend thing or an Xmas Day thing. Matrix Reloaded being the oddball since it was a week before MD, which is an even further oddball since it had some Wed showings so not a true Wed or Thu opener. 

[KeepItU25071906]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

haha, i thought it was FSSM. didn't even know it's releasing on thrusday.

Now it makes sense, cause Saturday and Sunday drops looked wierd.

Edited March 27, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Has the Thursday release thing ever even been tried with an unestablished franchise? It's mainly been an exclusive thing to the '99-'09 LucasFilm releases or Xmas Day when it falls on Thursday. There's also Matrix Reloaded, Hangover 2, Pirates 3. What else? 

 

Baby Driver and The End of the world were summer Wednesday if I remember correctly ? they did extremely well, I think it is common for Holiday type weekend to not open a Friday with thuersday previews.

 

I think you can see a list of movie that didn't start Friday here, section Previews For Midweek Opener:

 

http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html

 

Last Airbender seem to be the other big previews/OD numbers in live action outside the 2 mentioned above.

[Plain Old Tele]

26 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Baby Driver and The End of the world were summer Wednesday if I remember correctly ? they did extremely well, I think it is common for Holiday type weekend to not open a Friday with thuersday previews.

 

I think you can see a list of movie that didn't start Friday here, section Previews For Midweek Opener:

 

http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html

 

Last Airbender seem to be the other big previews/OD numbers in live action outside the 2 mentioned above.

 

STID was one -- a fairly last-minute change, too, from what I remember.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Has the Thursday release thing ever even been tried with an unestablished franchise? It's mainly been an exclusive thing to the '99-'09 LucasFilm releases or Xmas Day when it falls on Thursday. There's also Matrix Reloaded, Hangover 2, Pirates 3. What else? 

GI Joe Retaliation did this over Easter Weekend. Not an amazing comparison, but maybe our best one 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

GI Joe Retaliation did this over Easter Weekend. Not an amazing comparison, but maybe our best one 

Thanks, that will definitely be our best comp then. That had a 45% Fri increase, 1% Sat, and -37% Sun. Will expect similar holds for RPO then. 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Thanks, that will definitely be our best comp then. That had a 45% Fri increase, 1% Sat, and -37% Sun. Will expect similar holds for RPO then. 

Sat and Sunday are going to be easier to predict for everything this weekend. Friday is a crapshoot because of Good Friday. On the one hand, I expect RPO to have less of an increase just because of Wednesday previews alone (GI Joe managed 2.2 into a 10.5 Thursday). On the other hand, how many people know it’s open all day Thursday?

 

 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Sat and Sunday are going to be easier to predict for everything this weekend. Friday is a crapshoot because of Good Friday. On the one hand, I expect RPO to have less of an increase just because of Wednesday previews alone (GI Joe managed 2.2 into a 10.5 Thursday). On the other hand, how many people know it’s open all day Thursday?

 

 

I would be really surprised if much of the GA realize there will be Wednesday evening and Thursday day showings. 

[Barnack]

22 minutes ago, Trolltastic Tele said:

 

STID was one -- a fairly last-minute change, too, from what I remember.

Would not call Star Trek an unestablished franchise too.

[dxmatrixdt]

Wed previews + Thursday opening day makes it difficult for RP1 to reach the 50 million that WB might expect come Sunday.  One would have to assume crazy WOM and sell outs for good Friday with no one running to a second option like Jumanji vs TLJ

[Barnack]

31 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

Wed previews + Thursday opening day makes it difficult for RP1 to reach the 50 million that WB might expect come Sunday.  One would have to assume crazy WOM and sell outs for good Friday with no one running to a second option like Jumanji vs TLJ

I would imagine they are counting all those days into that 50m they want no ? Or it is they want a FSS 50m + what they make wednesday and thursday ?

[dxmatrixdt]

27 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I would imagine they are counting all those days into that 50m they want no ? Or it is they want a FSS 50m + what they make wednesday and thursday ?

I assumed it was 50 come Sunday.  50 over the weekend would be too much.

[Barnack]

11 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

I assumed it was 50 come Sunday.  50 over the weekend would be too much.

So why opening Wednesday is not 100% helping it I am not sure to follow what is going on, you mean versus a Tuesday opening ?

[WrathOfHan]

Thursday showings are up at my theater: RPO has 6 shows, yet only one of them is in 2D  Red Sparrow/Jumanji and Peter Rabbit/Death Wish are leaving, so Love, Simon might be safe after all @Hiccup23

[WrathOfHan]

Tracking for the other releases this week (go to the RPO thread to discuss that  ): http://deadline.com/2018/03/ready-player-one-steven-spielberg-tye-sherdian-global-box-office-preview-1202354201/

 

Acrimony: 10-15M

God's Not Dead: 4-6M

 

That would be a fucking terrible start for Acrimony and the lowest Tyler Perry opening in a long ass time. 10M could mean it barely goes over 20M.

Edited March 27, 2018 by WrathOfHan