The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Arlborn]

32 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Comparison of those gathered sales vs actual box office now released, with "adjusted ticket sales" were I count every 3D sales as 1.2 ticket, adding an other 15% if it is IMAX 3D and 10% for regular IMAX, a quick search for the average 3D ticket surcharge didn't brought anything quickly on Google, so I went for those made up numbers, but I imagine some people would have a better idea of what the average surcharge for what type of PLF tend to be, here it tend to be 3$ on a 10.50/11$ ticket type of deal, making that 20% boost one on the reasonable side. That why you can see a fraction for the numbers of ticket sold in the Adj Sales column.

 

With that little adjustment and by having used a long sampling of time (around 18h30 to midnight), I already upped my correlation factor from 0.89 to 0.95/.96, by sampling a complete week 10 times by hours before the days, filtering for sales for ticket showtime of the actual days we want to estimate box office and with a small correction for genre / rating how many days into the movie run we are, maybe we could get to .97-.98 or so.

 

Peter rabbit, love simon, wrinkle, etc... played a bit more comparable and sold more before 18h30 I would imagine than the rest, love how close PR:U, BP and TR are, I Can only Imagine/Paul also seem to be playing a bit in the similar way or how closer the R-rated one like Game Night/Red Sparrow/Prey at night/Annihilation are from each other versus the rest, Death wish always played a bit more walk up heavy and below that one the sampling is getting too small to be relevant.

 

Sunday March 25th, 2018

 

Title	Adj sales	Box office	$ by sales
Pacific Rim Uprising (2018)	22567.42	7,214,895	319.7
Black Panther	14855.6	5,040,386	339.3
Tomb Raider (2018)	8297.8	2,865,143	345.3
Love Simon	7159	2,101,043	293.5
I Can Only Imagine	6891	4,292,296	622.9
A Wrinkle in Time	5082.4	2,457,156	483.5
Game Night (2018)	4711	1,078,207	228.9
Sherlock Gnomes	4576.6	3,202,603	699.8
Unsane (2018)	3354	947,792	282.6
Paul Apostle of Christ	3219	1,637,641	508.7
Isle of Dogs	2841	486,894	171.4
Midnight Sun (2018)	2573	1,091,000	424.0
Red Sparrow	2418	633,730	262.1
The Strangers Prey at Night	2156	554,614	257.2
Annihilation	1380	270,439	196.0
Peter Rabbit	1083	836,919	772.8
Death Wish (2018)	907	335,346	369.7
The Death of Stalin	480	283,049	589.7
The Greatest Showman	354	181,051	511.4
7 Days in Entebbe	284	180,175	634.4
Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle	235	241,668	1028.4
Fifty Shades Freed	154	78,615	510.5
Thoroughbreds	90	53,605	595.6
The Shape of Water (2017)	75	72,158	962.1
The Hurricane Heist	50	26,599	532.0
Getting Grace	38	33,450	880.3
Star Wars The Last Jedi (2017)	31	27,506	887.3
Gringo (2018)	26	10,512	404.3
Flower (2018)	22	23,409	1064.0
Maze Runner The Death Cure	20	23,380	1169.0
The 1517 to Paris	18	23,667	1314.8
I Tonya	17.2	16,568	963.3
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri	17	30,257	1779.8
Lady Bird	14	9,393	670.9
12 Strong	13	10,162	781.7
Ferdinand	10	30,670	3067.0
Hostiles	10	6,059	605.9
Winchester (2018)	10	16,938	1693.8
Coco (2017)	7	37,000	5285.7
The Post	5	22,706	4541.2
Correlation	0.95755577

Are you... Are you a magical being? An Unicorn? An alien? Did you just get a casual 95.7% box office prediction ratio based on pre-sale or am I misunderstanding it?

[Barnack]

13 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Are you... Are you a magical being? An Unicorn? An alien? Did you just get a casual 95.7% box office prediction ratio based on pre-sale or am I misunderstanding it?

Well I will not score that high using only the sales a relevant time before the days I would think too, that technic simply make me able to make that good of a prediction of a day box office around midnight of that very day (not sure if we can still call it a prediction for something that already happened).... a bit too late to be able to use it on any betting type/fantasy BO website I would imagine.

 

How good it is to predict the box office a couple of days in advance is what could be really useful and I imagine will be more complicated to achieve and give a much smaller correlation level.

 

Still just for a fun goodies if it is only good at predicting one day or 0 day in advance, following a particular days sales with a converter in expected BO could be fun to have with a little graph that show the burst and the total sales for some day's in particular and for big movies to come.

[grim22]

RPO is on MT

 

PR2 12.4

ICOI 10.7

BP 10.3

Sherlock Gnomes 7.5

RPO 7.3

[Hiccup23]

Solid start!

[Jonwo]

10 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Ready Player One

North Shore Cinema

3/28/18 (2 days before previews, 3 days before release)

Mequon, WI

 

7:00 - 39/301 - USCR 

8:00 - 2/142 - 3D

10:30 - 6/301 - USCR 

 

Running 2% ahead of Dunkirk ($51.51M OW or 4 Day) and 95% ahead of Time ($64.58M OW/4 day (the latter is a stretch but technically the best mid range openers I can find at the same point in time))

I think $45-50m OW for the four days is doable. 

[trifle]

57 minutes ago, grim22 said:

RPO is on MT

 

PR2 12.4

ICOI 10.7

BP 10.3

Sherlock Gnomes 7.5

RPO 7.3

It has passed SG now.

 

PR 12.1%

ICOI 10.9%

BP 10.3%

RPO 7.7%

SG 7.6%

Edited March 27, 2018 by trifle

[TwoMisfits]

On 3/20/2018 at 12:01 AM, TwoMisfits said:

1st local (Cinemark) is up and not fully booked - they have allocated 10.6 screens out of 12.  Usually that means they are looking at foreign films, but not always...they have not booked every new opener, so they also could be doing some very last minute bookings or saving an extra screen for whichever opener starts rocking presales...here's the current set (I'll update it when they fill in the last screens)...

 

NEW

Pacific Rim 2 (1 - 2d/3d split - 5 showings - 3 2d/ 2 3d - biggest screen)

Sherlock Gnomes (1 - 2d/3d split - 6 showings - 4 2d/2 3d - biggest screen)

MLA (.4 - last 2 showings on Peter's screen)

EDIT - Hitchki (.4 - last 2 showings on Game Night's screen)

EDIT #2 - Rajatha (1)

 

RETURNING

ICOI (1)

Love Simon (1)

Raid (1)

Tomb Raider (2 - that's crazy - I foresee this being the movie to get showings cut left and right for whatever breakout there is)

AWiT (1) (down a screen)

Black Panther (1 - down another screen this week b/c it's getting tight)

Game Night (.6 - all early showings)

Peter Rabbit (.6 - all early showings)

 

GONE

Annihilation, previous foreign films

 

EDIT - Now 1 screen open...we'll see who wins it (I'm betting another foreign film now, but we'll see:)...

 

EDIT #2 - So, even with all those new openers, another foreign film takes the last screen...not a good sign for the lesser openers, I'd think...unless the theater is saving extra screens for RPO on March 29 (since it usually dumps its foreign films in a week unless they really perform)...

1st local (Cinemark) is up - I now know why they skipped all last weekend's movies except the not really big 2 and put in foreign ones...so they could drop all the foreign ones in a week and book most of this week's openers!  Here's the set:)...

 

NEW

Ready Player One (2 - 9 showings - 4 3d / 5 2d - biggest and above average size)

Acrimony (1 -5 showings - smallest)

God's Not Dead 3 - I am surprised they picked this one over Paul last week, but ICOI did end up rocking here, so maybe the modern tales do better (1 - 5 showings - smallest)

 

RETURNING

Pacific Rim (1) - already drops a screen

Sherlock Gnomes (1)

ICOI (1)

Tomb Raider (1)

AWiT (1)

Black Panther (1)

Foreign Film (1)

Open Screen (1) - I'm betting this is gonna be for the 1 new foreign film they will book

 

GONE

Love Simon (surprised this couldn't break out here, but I think it's the victim of ICOI rocking this theater unexpectedly), Game Night, Peter Rabbit (the rabbit just couldn't stay through Easter - not a surprise, since the cheap theater got the rabbit already this week), all the other foreign films

Edited March 27, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

IW Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-31 Days and counting  

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	114	4766	11011	56.72%

 

Total Seats Sold:      49

Edited March 27, 2018 by Porthos

[Hiccup23]

This weekend and week at my theater

 

	Showings
Sherlock Gnomes	10
Pacific Rim 2	11
Love, Simon	5
I Can Only Imagine	5
Black Panther	8
Midnight Sun	6
Paul	5
Unsane	5
Tomb Raider	5
A Wrinkle in Time	6
Strangers 2	1
Red Sparrow	1
Death Wish	1
Game Night	1
Peter Rabbit	1

 

Next Weekend/Week

 

	Showings	Change
Ready Player One	20	New
God's Not Dead 3	5	New
Tyler Perry's Acrimony	6	New
Sherlock Gnomes	5	-6
Pacific Rim 2	5	-6
Love, Simon	4	-1
I Can Only Imagine	5	No Change
Black Panther	5	-3
Midnight Sun	2	-4
Paul	5	No Change
Unsane	2	-3
Tomb Raider	4	-1
A Wrinkle in Time	5	-1
Game Night	1	No Change

 

Gone: Peter Rabbit, Red Sparrow, Strangers 2, Death Wish

 

 

Edited March 27, 2018 by Hiccup23

[KeepItU25071906]

5 hours ago, Jonwo said:

I think $45-50m OW for the four days is doable. 

I hope you don't thinks this is a good start.

[Krissykins]

According to THR, Warner Bros want $50m for Ready Player One.

 

Anything under that is below expectations.  

[dxmatrixdt]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

According to THR, Warner Bros want $50m for Ready Player One.

 

Anything under that is below expectations.  

It will be harder because Wednesday previews won't be that strong.

[KeepItU25071906]

27 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

According to THR, Warner Bros want $50m for Ready Player One.

4-days? It's really below expectations and small numbers. Good for ... LaraCroft with her budget, not for RPO. 

[Krissykins]

6 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

4-days? It's really below expectations and small numbers. Good for ... LaraCroft with her budget, not for RPO. 

Yeh I don’t think many people have had expectations much higher than that since the trailer dropped lol

[KeepItU25071906]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh I don’t think many people have had expectations much higher than that since the trailer dropped lol

After SXSW we saw good tempo of presales. 

 

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

lol

2018 is already here. It's too ancient.

[YLF]

1 hour ago, Thematrixfilm said:

It will be harder because Wednesday previews won't be that strong.

Do people even realize there are Wednesday previews? I sure didnt... and bought my tickets for thursday

[Brinatico]

7.00 am ET 5min on pulse

RP1 90/5

PRU 50/5

 

Ready player selling very well at this point, look like a 50-60 (4) days 

[Brinatico]

Trending Movies

Top tickets sold in the last 24 hours on MovieTickets.com.

10.9%

Pacific Rim: Uprising

10.8%

I Can Only Imagine

10.2%

Black Panther

9.3%

Ready Player One

7.7%

Sherlock Gnomes

[Hiccup23]

Pulse Tuesday Morning

 

1. Ready Player One

2. Black Panther 

3. Pacific Rim Uprising

4. Sherlock Gnomes

5. Avengers: Infinity War

[a2k]

50-60 4-day is possible it seems.

21 + 17 (-19%) + 11.5 (-32%) + 5.5 (-52%) = 55

 

Sorry didn't realize it was Thursday release. Don't know how to guess the days.

15 + 13 (-13%) + 16 (+23%) + 11 (-31%) = 55

Edited March 27, 2018 by a2knet