The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[John Marston]

people forget Deadpool 1's opening was heavily boosted by Valentine's Day

 

Deadpool 2 doesn't have that luxury so a drop from the first one opening weekend wouldn't be too shocking. 

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

But IW is no Spider Man 3 

IW also isn’t a summer film and wasn’t released in May. 

[narniadis]

I know iw is not sm3. I was making a generalized statement about how those films played out. One big film sucking up all the hype, new opening weekend record, etc. Second big film opens big, but not as big as most and or some expected. Note, there were some who thought shrek 3 could challenge sm3 for the record, but we all know that didn't happen. Finally, solo fills the pathetic space of p3, opening way lower than expected and having terrible legs go boot. It's not  a petfect compasrison, but it is the only other May with a similar style of setup (yes, I know iw opened in April). 

[aabattery]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

IW also isn’t a summer film and wasn’t released in May. 

 

It's gonna make more money in May than any other movie. And probably gonna make more money in Summer than anything else as well. 

 

It's a bit pedantic to go on about how it was released in April when for all intents and purposes, it did kick off the Summer movie season.

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

It's gonna make more money in May than any other movie. And probably gonna make more money in Summer than anything else as well. 

 

It's a bit pedantic to go on about how it was released in April when for all intents and purposes, it did kick off the Summer movie season.

 

Nah it wont make more than Fallen Kingdom in the Summer Period. Its at 220M for the summer season now - give it an optimistic 150M more and it stands as 370M. A number that not only Fallen Kingdom, but also The Incredibles 2, Deadpool and maybe even Solo could all surpass.

[aabattery]

12 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Nah it wont make more than Fallen Kingdom in the Summer Period. Its at 220M for the summer season now - give it an optimistic 150M more and it stands as 370M. A number that not only Fallen Kingdom, but also The Incredibles 2, Deadpool and maybe even Solo could all surpass.

 

It's made 276M in May. On the really optimistic end, could end up with 410M or something past May 1. Internationally it could do ~1300M in May/June.

[TalismanRing]

This is so silly.  Avengers opened up the summer movie season which has been inching up earlier and earlier for years.    A couple of decades ago and the start was Memorial Day w/e

 

It's not as if the first week or even the last week of May is actually summer.  That starts June 21st.

[Brainbug]

Just now, aabattery said:

 

It's made 276M in May. On the really optimistic end, could end up with 410M or something past May 1. Internationally it could do ~1300M in May/June.

 

I just saw that for BOM, the summer season begins on May 4. But however one sees it, IW is the biggest "summer" movie, theres no real debate around it i think.

If we look at the complete May and beyond gross, is still think JW:FK and Incredibles could challenge that total.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

It's made 276M in May. On the really optimistic end, could end up with 410M or something past May 1. Internationally it could do ~1300M in May/June.

Yeah, IW should take the "proper" summer crown since the only other thing I can see crossing 400 is I2, and I think it just barely does it if so. I'd bet IW does 425m from May onwards. 

Edited May 16, 2018 by MovieMan89

[TalismanRing]

Fandango (the old count em yourself method)

 

Sorry, I don't have more direct comps for 6 pm hour

 

DP 2:  60 avg per minute (6pm)

 

Comps for WED:

 

WW: 45 (4pm)

SM:HC: 39 avg (12:30pm) 42 avg (3pm) , 54.2 (4pm)

IT: 90 (10:30pm)

Thor: R: 35 (9:55am), 49 (3:40), 47 (4:10pm)

JL:  26.5 (9:10), 27 (10:10am), 37.2 (12:25), 36.6 (4:10pm), 47 (5:30)

BP: 107 (2:45pm)  

A:IW:  85 (8:55am), 91 (9:10am) 157 (3pm), 200 (6:30)

[Nova]

10 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango (the old count em yourself method)

 

Sorry, I don't have more direct comps for 6 pm hour

 

DP 2:  60 avg per minute (6pm)

 

Comps for WED:

 

WW: 45 (4pm)

SM:HC: 39 avg (12:30pm) 42 avg (3pm) , 54.2 (4pm)

IT: 90 (10:30pm)

Thor: R: 35 (9:55am), 49 (3:40), 47 (4:10pm)

JL:  26.5 (9:10), 27 (10:10am), 37.2 (12:25), 36.6 (4:10pm), 47 (5:30)

BP: 107 (2:45pm)  

A:IW:  85 (8:55am), 91 (9:10am) 157 (3pm), 200 (6:30)

All this shows me is that IW was such a monster. Not that I needed any further proof (it's OW and legs afterwards speak for themselves) but omg 

*Btw I did the count them yourself a few hours ago and it was at like 58 a minute so close to the 60 you got. 

Edited May 16, 2018 by Nova

[WrathOfHan]

Book Club is at 80% on RT with 5 reviews, but the average is a 5.6/10. Maybe it's borderline fresh?

[Rthmessiah]

On 5/16/2018 at 2:51 AM, TalismanRing said:

I haven't done an in depth look at NYC theaters on Fandango but some info

 

It was at 310 showings on Sunday but accelerated to 372 this afternoon

 

Comsp:  GOTG 2 finished with 348, JL - 345 (it had a lot early),  SM:HC -320, Thor: R - 313, BP - 449, CW - 459 and AIW - 661

 

Looking at two biggest theaters and they're oddly different so far. 

 

AMC EMPIRE 25 has 28 shows (with 3 shaded sellouts) compared to the final totals of 27 for CW, 4 for GOTG2, 13 for SM:HC, 16 for WW & T:R, 18 for BP and 51 for AIW

 

Lincoln Center IMAX so far strangely only has 4 showings and more oddly only 2 in the IMAX starting at  9:30pm and 12:25pm.  They usually have an additional 7pm showing and maybe later add a 2am but they haven't assigned those times to anything on Thur - looks like a wait and see.    By opening  CW: 13, GOTG2: 7, T:R - 9 , SM:HC , WW & JL: 7,  BP: 10, AIW - 19

 

 

Just off the cuff, with Empire 25 remember that for a while now a film may also be playing at E-walk 13 across the road, unless the Empire is primarily only running Imax (if E-walk is considered main theatre for the title)  the Empire will still squash the E-walk as if it was a bug under its feet. So when your checking the Empire it may pay to see how things are lookng at E-Walk if its playing as well. Both are playing DP2 and still both playing AIW

 

Edited May 17, 2018 by Rthanos

[Sheikh]

I guess Book Club is going to do well this Weekend?

MT:

2018-05-17 01:01:33.186507 UTC
1	42.5%	Deadpool 2
2	17.9%	Avengers: Infinity War
3	6.3%	Solo: A Star Wars Story
4	6.2%	Book Club
5	4.5%	Life of the Party

2018-05-17 00:02:07.056291 UTC
1	40.1%	Deadpool 2
2	19%	Avengers: Infinity War
3	6%	Solo: A Star Wars Story
4	5.5%	Book Club
5	4.8%	Life of the Party

2018-05-16 23:01:38.252561 UTC
1	37.1%	Deadpool 2
2	19.9%	Avengers: Infinity War
3	5.8%	Solo: A Star Wars Story
4	5.2%	Life of the Party
5	5%	Book Club

[Porthos]

Deadpool 2 Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-1 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	166	10226	16155	36.70%

 

Total Showings Added Today:   25 (12 non reserved theaters)

Total Seats Added Today:     1265

Total Seats Sold Today:          835

 

==============================

 

Solo: A Star Wars Story GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-8 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

1/92 (+0/+2) [R1: 7/106]

 

2D:  0/66 (+0/+1) [R1: 5/70]

3D:  0/26 (+0/+1) [R1: 2/36]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 71 showings [+2] [R1: 46]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

2 (nc) [R1: 3]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

0 (nc) [R1: 2]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

10 (nc) [R1: 20]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

0 (nc) [R1: 0]

 

Weekend Showings

Fr:   0/195

St:   0/197

Su:  0/194

Mo: 0/185

 

---

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (69/90 showings [+2/+2]):

100%:      1 (nc)

90-99%:   2 (nc)

80-89%:   5 (nc)

70-79%:   9 (+1)

60-69%:   5 (-1)

50-59%:   5 (+2)

40-49%:   5 (-1)

30-39%:   6 (nc)

20-29%:   4 (nc)

10-19%:   6 (-1)

0-9%:     23 (+2)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	92	6511	10146	35.83%

 

Total Showings Added Today:   2

Total Seats Added Today:     346

Total Seats Sold Today:        101

----

.5713x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 13 days of pre-sales. [starting tomorrow, I will no longer report this as we are coming up on one week to go]
.4335x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 8 days before release. (IW had 21 more days of pre-sales)
1.052x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 8 days before release. (BP had 18 more days of pre-sales) [I don't have info for day four of pre-sales for BP]
1.131x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2* 8 days before release. (DP2 had two [or so] more days of pre-sales)

 

* NOTE:  DP2 is also playing in 4 more theaters locally and had 19 more screens tracked at the same point in time.  

[Porthos]

(cross posting with the DP2 thread)

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Deadpool 2 Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-1 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	166	10226	16155	36.70%

 

Total Showings Added Today:   25 (12 non reserved theaters)

Total Seats Added Today:     1265

Total Seats Sold Today:          835

A couple of super quick comps for Deadpool 2:

 

.51405x as many tickets sold as Infinity War one day before release.

1x exactly as many tickets sold as Black Panther one day before release.

 

HOWEVER,  as I've said on multiple occasions, DP2 is playing in more theaters locally than either BP or IW did.  It's got about 25% more showings than BP had locally (45) and 12 less than IW one day from release (both BP and IW would end up adding more on the day of release).  

 

Now ticket sales are ticket sales.  And it's more than likely that some/many of the people who bought tickets at the 'extra' theaters would have gone to another in the area.  But it can't be ignored, either.

 

Still, very likely that DP2 might be up for a very large preview night.   How large, I couldn't/won't say.  But whatever the number is, it won't surprise me.

 

---

(additional thoughts for this thread)

 

I'm spitballing here, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see DP2 approach or even pip over the 20m marker for Opening Night.

 

The one thing that will hurt it is the lack of 3D ticket sales.  On the other hand, the 1:51 run time means more showings can be squeezed in, plus fans rushing to see it Opening Night.  So I'm not calling for an over 20m preview number as the lack of 3D might push it down to the high teens.  But I won't be one little bit surprised if it does in fact reach it.

 

(FTR: 39 x .51409 = 20.05m)

Edited May 17, 2018 by Porthos

[TLK]

Fandango Presales Volume.

 

Date           Name                      Monday      Tuesday       Wednesday
04/06/18    A Quiet Place           2177          4003            10665
04/06/18    Blockers                  504            1106            2931
04/13/18    Rampage                705            1508            4109
04/13/18    Truth Or Dare         385            760              2133
04/20/18    Super Troopers 2    2825          3447            6811
04/20/18    I Feel Pretty             871            1610           4423
04/27/18    Avengers 3              49836        54892         68826   
05/04/18    Overboard               84              409            1044

05/11/18    Breaking In              727            1204           2899
05/11/18    Life Of The Party      587            1310          3010

05/18/18    Deadpool 2              23134        28896         41212
05/18/18    Show Dogs              6               128             369
05/18/18    Book Club                836            1599           3283

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

Book Club has better presales than last week's openers.

Deadpool 2's numbers are looking good as well. Monday sales were around 46.5% of comparative A:IW sales and had jumped to around 60% on Wednesday.

 

 

Edited May 17, 2018 by TLK

[XO21]

Thinking 125-135m for Deadpool.

Edited May 17, 2018 by XO21

[filmlover]

13 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Book Club is at 80% on RT with 5 reviews, but the average is a 5.6/10. Maybe it's borderline fresh?

I haven't checked but I'm pretty sure if you take out Finding Dory that would make it the first Diane Keaton movie to be rated "Fresh" in more than a decade.

Edited May 17, 2018 by filmlover

[narniadis]

Yup, everything is looking good.... 

 

Deadpool 135m 

Book Club 18m

Show Dog 10m

 

Very good weekend ahead.