The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, FlashMaster659 said:

On MT, the last Thursday update was 89.6% I think.

Interesting. I believe Endgame can go even higher (not sure about the 95% that TFA hit). Competition this year will be weaker in the lead up to Endgame (Shazam in 4th weekend, Hellboy in 3rd weekend.)

I think it'll get to...... 91.5% 

[LordNox]

I didn't expect this but it does seem that Dumbo has much higher hype than Shazam and will easily do better than Shazam in NA. I thought the bad reviews for Dumbo and the great reviews for Shazam to alter things a bit but Dumbo will easily beat Shazam in NA.

 

Don't know if its the marketing's fault or if the audiences are still lukewarm about the DCEU. Dumbo seems to be the families top choice the coming weeks.

[DisposedData]

29 minutes ago, LordNox said:

I didn't expect this but it does seem that Dumbo has much higher hype than Shazam and will easily do better than Shazam in NA. I thought the bad reviews for Dumbo and the great reviews for Shazam to alter things a bit but Dumbo will easily beat Shazam in NA.

 

Don't know if its the marketing's fault or if the audiences are still lukewarm about the DCEU. Dumbo seems to be the families top choice the coming weeks.

In your head maybe.

[Nova]

30 minutes ago, LordNox said:

I didn't expect this but it does seem that Dumbo has much higher hype than Shazam and will easily do better than Shazam in NA. I thought the bad reviews for Dumbo and the great reviews for Shazam to alter things a bit but Dumbo will easily beat Shazam in NA.

 

Don't know if its the marketing's fault or if the audiences are still lukewarm about the DCEU. Dumbo seems to be the families top choice the coming weeks.

After reading through Monday and Tuesday's dumpster style threads I thought I'd have read the stupidest post on this forum but nope. It's this one. So congratulations for accomplishing such a feat. 

[MrGlass2]

24 minutes ago, LordNox said:

I didn't expect this but it does seem that Dumbo has much higher hype than Shazam and will easily do better than Shazam in NA. I thought the bad reviews for Dumbo and the great reviews for Shazam to alter things a bit but Dumbo will easily beat Shazam in NA.

In what sense? Shazam has a lot more trailer views and got a nice bump on Internet "buzz" last weekend thanks to reviews and early access. In terms of hype, Dumbo is lagging behind not only Shazam but Aladdin and The Lion King (releasing months later).

[LordNox]

I'm basing it on the fact that Dumbo has been selling better than Shazam in presales every comparable date as of now. Presales show the hype for a movie, and Dumbo has consistenly done better than Shazam by that metric. 

 

Early box office tracking has also time and time again put Dumbo higher than Shazam.

 

There is as of now no evidence at all that Shazam will outdo Dumbo in NA but all figures and tracking has shown the opposite.

 

I want Shazam to do better than Dumbo but sorry to say the reviews have not led to any increase at all in the presales for Shazam.

[John Marston]

44 minutes ago, LordNox said:

I didn't expect this but it does seem that Dumbo has much higher hype than Shazam and will easily do better than Shazam in NA. I thought the bad reviews for Dumbo and the great reviews for Shazam to alter things a bit but Dumbo will easily beat Shazam in NA.

 

Don't know if its the marketing's fault or if the audiences are still lukewarm about the DCEU. Dumbo seems to be the families top choice the coming weeks.

 

 

I mean Egan I think Dumbo could do better than some might think but I think Shazam will end up the higher grosser 

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, LordNox said:

I'm basing it on the fact that Dumbo has been selling better than Shazam in presales every comparable date as of now. Presales show the hype for a movie, and Dumbo has consistenly done better than Shazam by that metric. 

 

Early box office tracking has also time and time again put Dumbo higher than Shazam.

 

There is as of now no evidence at all that Shazam will outdo Dumbo in NA but all figures and tracking has shown the opposite.

 

I want Shazam to do better than Dumbo but sorry to say the reviews have not led to any increase at all in the presales for Shazam.

You realize that one movie opens tomorrow night, and one opens a full week later, right?  I mean, if you are literally comparing today's presales against each other, you are missing the boat on presale analysis...

Edited March 28, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

You realize that one movie opens tomorrow night, and one opens a full week later, right?  I mean, if you are literally comparing today's presales against each other, you are missing the boat on presale analysis...

Plus one film already burned off over 3m dollars worth of demand.

[Litio]

9 minutes ago, LordNox said:

I'm basing it on the fact that Dumbo has been selling better than Shazam in presales every comparable date as of now. Presales show the hype for a movie, and Dumbo has consistenly done better than Shazam by that metric. 

 

Early box office tracking has also time and time again put Dumbo higher than Shazam.

  

There is as of now no evidence at all that Shazam will outdo Dumbo in NA but all figures and tracking has shown the opposite.

 

I want Shazam to do better than Dumbo but sorry to say the reviews have not led to any increase at all in the presales for Shazam.

Shazam has burned up some of urgent demands with early access last Saturday, so presales will slow down until the week of release.

[LordNox]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

You realize that one movie opens tomorrow night, and one opens a full week later, right?  I mean, if you are literally comparing today's presales against each other, you are missing the boat on presale analysis...

My point is that Dumbo had better presales last week than Shazam has this week. Of course Shazam will have better presales the closer it gets to release, but Endgame starting presales next week will considerably lessen the presales Shazam will sell up to OW.

 

As of now there is literally nothing except hope to think Shazam will open higher than Dumbo. The presales and tracking point in a clear direction in Dumbo's favour.

[mulderfox]

1 hour ago, LordNox said:

I didn't expect this but it does seem that Dumbo has much higher hype than Shazam and will easily do better than Shazam in NA. I thought the bad reviews for Dumbo and the great reviews for Shazam to alter things a bit but Dumbo will easily beat Shazam in NA.

 

Don't know if its the marketing's fault or if the audiences are still lukewarm about the DCEU. Dumbo seems to be the families top choice the coming weeks.

Are you trolling LOL. Dumbo is coming out this weekend. Shazam next weekend. You act like they are coming out the same weekend. Also did you forget its fantastic preview night of 3.3 million. There is demand for it or it would not have had a preview night so big.

[Menor the Destroyer]

23 minutes ago, LordNox said:

I'm basing it on the fact that Dumbo has been selling better than Shazam in presales every comparable date as of now. Presales show the hype for a movie, and Dumbo has consistenly done better than Shazam by that metric. 

 

Early box office tracking has also time and time again put Dumbo higher than Shazam.

 

There is as of now no evidence at all that Shazam will outdo Dumbo in NA but all figures and tracking has shown the opposite.

 

I want Shazam to do better than Dumbo but sorry to say the reviews have not led to any increase at all in the presales for Shazam.

Dumbo 11 Days out - 3630 tickets on Fandango

Shazam 11 Days out - 5040 tickets sold on Fandango

And that's even with the early previews for Shazam burning off demand

[Matthew]

This weekend prediction

 

Dumbo 57M+/-

 

US  30-33M

 

Captain Marvel   19-22M

[Matthew]

Do somebody here keep track of Fandango presales?

 

I want to compare Dumbo with CR and NFR. 

 

Also Shazam with CM and Aquaman 

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Do somebody here keep track of Fandango presales?

 

I think a lot of it is kept there:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NBK-Sj8qK3GXl-iOdHYeD94YRNxWJ9HqZ9OKdGoSx2o/edit#gid=1246392742

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zNm6jmYaVu4doQWQR6psnxz6f2AMSuKVlfEe6TOnZ5k/edit#gid=1758182291

[Matthew]

10 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I think a lot of it is kept there:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NBK-Sj8qK3GXl-iOdHYeD94YRNxWJ9HqZ9OKdGoSx2o/edit#gid=1246392742

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zNm6jmYaVu4doQWQR6psnxz6f2AMSuKVlfEe6TOnZ5k/edit#gid=1758182291

Thanks

[Neucentro]

Two days before release, Dumbo made a big gain and is now selling four times that of The Nutcracker on Fandango.

 

17:00 - 21:00 Tue/Wed

Dumbo - 1374/2932 (+113%)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 624/700 (+12%)

 

Nine days out, Shazam is about 40% of Aquaman at the same point.  And sales for Pet Sematary is 27% of that for Us at the same point. 

 

17:00 - 21:00 Tue/Wed

Shazam - 245/338 (+38%)

Aquaman - 562/847 (+50%)

 

Pet Sematary - 77/118 (+53%)

Us - 324/433 (+34%)

[Matthew]

17 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

Two days before release, Dumbo made a big gain and is now selling four times that of The Nutcracker on Fandango.

 

17:00 - 21:00 Tue/Wed

Dumbo - 1374/2932 (+113%)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 624/700 (+12%)

 

Nine days out, Shazam is about 40% of Aquaman at the same point.  And sales for Pet Sematary is 27% of that for Us at the same point. 

 

17:00 - 21:00 Tue/Wed

Shazam - 245/338 (+38%)

Aquaman - 562/847 (+50%)

 

Pet Sematary - 77/118 (+53%)

Us - 324/433 (+34%)

Negative Reviews are not hurting Dumbo in any substantial manner. 

 

My prediction of 57m+/- bodes very well. 

 

Shazam is doing Ok. Positive reviews have not bumped the sales like BP or WW. 

 

Also people should remember  Aquaman came out in Christmas so these presales of Aquaman are more likely for the holiday period and not concentrated towards OW. 

 

My Prediction for Shazam is... 

45M+/- OW and a total of 180M. I am expecting a very less drop in second and 3rd weekend as this movie will play into word of mouth. 

[cdsacken]

Shazam over Dumbo LMAO. Shazam had 3 million in screenings already and comes out a week later with amazing reviews versus mediocre ones. Yeah no way. Dumbo will open lower and have worse legs.