Weekend Actuals: 36.2 M ALIEN: COVENANT | 34.7 M GOTG II | 11.7 M EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING

[somebody85]

I knew Covenant would get a B cinemascore. I figured after seeing it that the marketing is going to leave many disappointed when they find out that what's been shown in the trailers is not much of the film. Your satisfaction of the movie is largely going to depend on the answers it provides. 

I really liked it but I can see why others would not. The market seems prime if POTC ends up being good next weekend!

[a2k]

34 minutes ago, wileECoyote said:

 

Your club isn't dead yet.  Friday - previews for AC looks like 11 versus Prometheus which was 17.9 (21.466-3.56).  Points to AC being more front loaded.  And Prometheus' Saturday dropped from Friday - previews.  If AC follows that pattern it could go as low as 33-34

 

PTHEUS had a June Friday, so the true Friday was inflated imo as schools are off.

ALIENC could rise from true Friday of 11 but not by much (could at least stay flat).

Using 0-20% Sat bump:

 

4.2 + 11 + 11.00 (+0%) + 8.30 (-24.5%) = 35.5

4.2 + 11 + 12.10 (+10%) + 9.20 (-24.0%) = 36.5

4.2 + 11 + 12.65 (+15%) + 9.65 (-23.7%) = 37.5

4.2 + 11 + 13.20 (+20%) + 10.1 (-23.5%) = 38.5

 

My Sunday % is optimistic.

Edited May 20, 2017 by a2knet

[a2k]

RT Aud score starting off at 65% for A:C

[baumer]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

Alien faces competition every single weekend and will certainly begin bleeding theaters fast by the fourth weekend. Never gonna get a chance to develop good legs.

 

Every movie in the summer faces competition every weekend.

[MrGlass2]

I hope A:C makes it to $40M, but it seems successful enough for a sequel anyway.

[baumer]

This number seems pretty awful to me.  I think it's going to come in under 40, probably about 38.  If you give it Prometheus multiplier, that gets it to 95 mill.  Overseas looks like it will do possibly another 200.  300 million for this doesn't seem all that great.  

[Biggestgeekever]

I think an Alien followup, if of similar quality, would probably struggle to hit $50M DOM. Or about the same gross as Alien: Resurrection. Even if they slash the budget in half, that would be quite a poor result, and be the end of the franchise for some time.

[picores]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

This number seems pretty awful to me.  I think it's going to come in under 40, probably about 38.  If you give it Prometheus multiplier, that gets it to 95 mill.  Overseas looks like it will do possibly another 200.  300 million for this doesn't seem all that great.  

 

If budget were 150m...300m WW would be troublesome. Budget is just under 100m, so achieve 3x that money WW is a similar ratio than Prometheus. (403m WW on a 130m budget)

 

Overall looks like a solid enough amount, yet unimpressive. 

[a2k]

13 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

I hope A:C makes it to $40M, but it seems successful enough for a sequel anyway.

 

PTHEUS did 400 ww on a 130 budget.

A:C could do 300 ww on a 110 budget.

Next one could do say, 240-250 ww (down 15-20% from A:C)...So as long they continue keeping the budget in check sequel makes sense.

Edited May 20, 2017 by a2knet

[MCKillswitch123]

Oh, well @Blankments, guess 40M+ isn't in the bank after all. It's my fault, everyone, I jinxed the movie. Sorry.

 

God, under 40M for this? I mean, it's not like it was impossible (it really wasn't), it just seemed unlikely after that strong preview number. Couldn't imagine this movie being that frontloaded.

[Poseidon]

What a horrible weekend ahead.
 

Let's hope next weekend breaks out, though. 

BatB is assured to cross $500m on MD WE now. 

[a2k]

GOTG2 will have a couple of milestones this weekend (crossing 300) and next (crossing GOTG1).

[CJohn]

RIP the Alien franchise.

[baumer]

31 minutes ago, picores said:

 

If budget were 150m...300m WW would be troublesome. Budget is just under 100m, so achieve 3x that money WW is a similar ratio than Prometheus. (403m WW on a 130m budget)

 

Overall looks like a solid enough amount, yet unimpressive. 

 

Well it's not really a solid amount because 100,000,000 is without marketing. And when you toss in marketing you're talking at least another 75 million dollars worldwide if not more. So it's not a great number at all.

[picores]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Well it's not really a solid amount because 100,000,000 is without marketing. And when you toss in marketing you're talking at least another 75 million dollars worldwide if not more. So it's not a great number at all.

 

Nothing great for sure, but making 3x the budget (not counting marketing) i think has always been consider as a solid run. Not for an Avengers movie, but if Prometheus made money at the end of the day...same rule should be applied here. 

[James]

I hope we get at least one more Alien movie. And Everything, Everything it is doing pretty well considering it's 10m budget.

[a2k]

Quote

In September 2015, Ridley Scott revealed he was planning two sequels to Prometheus, which would lead into the first Alien film, even adding: "Maybe [there will] even [be] a fourth film before we get back into the Alien franchise."^[92][93] In November 2015, Scott confirmed that Alien: Covenant would be the first of three additional films in the Alien prequel series, before linking up with the original Alien,^[94][95] and stated that the Prometheus sequels will reveal who created the xenomorph aliens.^[96] The screenplay for the third prequel film was written during production of Alien: Covenant and finished in 2017. Production is scheduled to begin in 2018.^[97] In March 2017, Scott said, "If you really want a franchise, I can keep cranking it for another six. I'm not going to close it down again. No way."^[98] In April, Scott announced that Neill Blomkamp’s Alien 5 had been cancelled. In a later interview he said he would have participated as a producer, but that 20th Century Fox had decided not to pursue the project.^[99][100]

 

If this does 3x the budget (97) ww, which looks likely right now, there could be at least one more film.

If A:C does 90+ dom, how much could that one drop...70+? (make it on 90 budget and then hope for 230-250 ww)

[Premium George]

This is ASM situation.

If franchise id dropping both domestic and OS, I don't think we are getting a sequel.

[That One Girl]

53 minutes ago, CJohn said:

RIP the Alien franchise.

 

RIP Fox, RIP Ridley Scott, RIP The Fassdick, RIP everyone involved in production.

[DeeCee]

John Wick 2 was a solid sequel. Slight increase in head shot count. 

 

PENCIL!