WEEKEND THREAD | 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Pirates - 62M ; Baywatch - 18M; Alien - 10.5M (71% drop) like. F8 crosses 1B OS.

[Ethan Hunt]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Han Solo will likely do sub $150M four day and under $400M domestic.

#flop

[Biggestgeekever]

Just now, GiantCALBears said:

I don't recall many of us on mojo saying AWE was going to do similar domestic numbers as DMC which broke all of the opening records. If anything AWE WW performance was a bit of an upside surprise.

Expectations were sky high for AWE. Presales were even bigger than Spider-Man 3 and I remember the MTC tracking numbers were used to get from notfabio were pointing at a $175+M. Several very good predictors, including xiayun, thought it could hit $200M for the 4-day + Thursday.

 

I also recall that being the first weekend I ever read a deadline article. It was Nikki Finke also predicting a $200M opening. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

5 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

 

Why is that exactly?

Probably will be the best received blockbuster in a month, with the marketplace kinda dead since then. That tends to bode better for a breakout, though obviously doesn't guarantee anything.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Han Solo will likely do sub $150M four day and under $400M domestic.

Oh, the horror.

[GiantCALBears]

Just now, Biggestgeekever said:

Expectations were sky high for AWE. Presales were even bigger than Spider-Man 3 and I remember the MTC tracking numbers were used to get from notfabio were pointing at a $175+M. Several very good predictors, including xiayun, thought it could hit $200M for the 4-day + Thursday.

 

I also recall that being the first weekend I ever read a deadline article. It was Nikki Finke also predicting a $200M opening. 

I guess my memory is fuzzy but in retrospect expectations should've been more conservative. Guess we were having an TA to AOU sort of feeling.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

11 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Since were talking Pirates I was just thinking was the drop between DMC and AWE seen as a big surprise back then?

 

The only reason why it wasn't a huge surprise was because both Spider Man 3 and Shrek 3 came before this already showing what was coming for Pirates.

[filmlover]

I'll give Wonder Woman this: it's the only movie for the rest of the summer that actually feels like an event movie (Despicable Me 3 has to deal with the weak reception to Minions, and Iron Man or not, Spider-Man is still the sixth movie and third overall "origin tale" for the character in just 15 years). All it needs is positive reviews and it'll take advantage immensely of a slow market.

[GiantCALBears]

1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:

Probably will be the best received blockbuster in a month, with the marketplace kinda dead since then. That tends to bode better for a breakout, though obviously doesn't guarantee anything.

I no longer buy in the streaming era that people have an itch to go to the movies in masse simply because there hasn't been a big movie out recently.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, GiantCALBears said:

I no longer buy in the streaming era that people have an itch to go to the movies in masse simply because there hasn't been a big movie out recently.

I think if it does break out, it will have more to do with quality, but I don't think the fact that it has been a month since anything huge has opened will hurt it.

[narniadis]

Yeah, AWE suffered from both the close proximity to DMC, the immediate burn that audiences got from both Spidey and Shrek and the fact that the film was divisive from the get go. However if the previews has been midnight and factored in to the weekend it still would have (barely) out opened DMC for the #2 spot on the chart. 

 

May of 2007 was the first time you really saw audience fatigue at too many huge films in a short span be noticeable. Had it opened on the first weekend I think at least in part some of the loss could have been made up. Also didn't help that any late legs such as DMC enjoyed were cut off by opening in May and not the end of summer. 

[grim22]

Was looking at Pirates box office numbers yesterday and it's pretty crazy how Pirates and Transformers franchises have followed the same trajectory.

 

First movie breaks out big in an unexpected way and becomes a massive crowd pleaser, second movie breaks the OD record (or comes really close to it) enroute to an OW record (or the 5 day opening record) and earns over 400M, third drops but is still massive (remove 3D from TF3 and the box office takes are almost the same), fourth drops further but gets past 1B WW. Kind of fitting that the 5th installment in both franchises come out the same summer.

[GiantCALBears]

WW is tracking at $100m+ OW, that's great but there isn't really any evidence there will be a massive push higher in tracking as we get closer. 

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

Yeah, AWE suffered from both the close proximity to DMC, the immediate burn that audiences got from both Spidey and Shrek and the fact that the film was divisive from the get go. However if the previews has been midnight and factored in to the weekend it still would have (barely) out opened DMC for the #2 spot on the chart. 

 

May of 2007 was the first time you really saw audience fatigue at too many huge films in a short span be noticeable. Had it opened on the first weekend I think at least in part some of the loss could have been made up. Also didn't help that any late legs such as DMC enjoyed were cut off by opening in May and not the end of summer. 

 

I imagine had Transformers not claimed July 4th weekend, it would have opened there 

[filmlover]

I'm sure there will be articles by the end of the weekend asking "Where Have All the Moviegoers Gone?" when the problem is really the movies, not audiences.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

WW is tracking at $100m+ OW, that's great but there isn't really any evidence there will be a massive push higher in tracking as we get closer. 

 

Never doubt the power of Warner Bros' marketing team 

[Daxtreme]

2 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

WW is tracking at $100m+ OW, that's great but there isn't really any evidence there will be a massive push higher in tracking as we get closer. 

 

[Biggestgeekever]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Was looking at Pirates box office numbers yesterday and it's pretty crazy how Pirates and Transformers franchises have followed the same trajectory.

 

First movie breaks out big in an unexpected way and becomes a massive crowd pleaser, second movie breaks the OD record (or comes really close to it) enroute to an OW record (or the 5 day opening record) and earns over 400M, third drops but is still massive (remove 3D from TF3 and the box office takes are almost the same), fourth drops further but gets past 1B WW. Kind of fitting that the 5th installment in both franchises come out the same summer.

Yep, it's sort of crazy how close to each other they. And Pirates faced it's decline the same summer Transformers started.

 

Dreamworks may be vindicated this summer for never trying to make Shrek 5.

[GiantCALBears]

Just now, filmlover said:

I'm sure there will be articles by the end of the weekend asking "Where Have All the Moviegoers Gone?" when the problem is really the movies, not audiences.

In fairness coming into summer, 2017 was still tracking over the previous year so it's more of a problem with sequels and summer blockbusters.

[GiantCALBears]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

Never doubt the power of Warner Bros' marketing team 

They do a pretty good job overall, maybe that can get it into the $110m-$120m range coupled with a great RT score they can plaster everywhere.

[marveldcfox]

What were people expecting from POTC? It's fifth movie in a franchise that deteriorated with successive sequels. This was always going to drop hard...not to mention there was a big gap between this and previous one. Also, there was nothing NEW in terms of vfx, world building or story telling in this new movie. It's just a fun summer movie..that's all. Something that can be watched on cable instead of going to cinema. Oh and Depp's recent public image hasn't been good.