WEEKEND THREAD | Actual: Wonder Woman 58.63M, Estimates: Mummy 32.2M, Underpants 12.3M, Pirates 10.2M, ICAN 6M

[That One Girl]

5 minutes ago, babz06 said:

The Dark Tower apparently has a 60m budget so i don't think it's gonna be a huge flop even if the marketing is shitty.

 

Judging by the trailer, I highly doubt it's that low  

[babz06]

12 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Judging by the trailer, I highly doubt it's that low  

I buy it with Tom Rothman as the CEO. 

Sony only spent 58m on LIFE. 

Rough Night only has a 20m budget. Sony issues haven't been budgets, they just suck at selling their movies.

Edited June 12, 2017 by babz06

[UNDERDOG]

15 minutes ago, babz06 said:

The Dark Tower apparently has a 60m budget so i don't think it's gonna be a huge flop even if the marketing is shitty. Emoji Movie also probably has a 60-70m budget just going by what they spent on Angry birds which was 70m. So Emoji doesn't have to be a huge blockbuster in order for them to get back a profit either. 

 

I'm sorry, but I don't believe the dark tower has only a 60 million dollar budget. Not for one second.

[That One Girl]

Just now, babz06 said:

I buy it with Tom Rothman as the CEO. 

Sony only spent 38m on LIFE. 

Rough Night only has a 20m budget. Sony issues haven't been budgets, they just suck at selling their movies.

 

Life actually had a 58M budget.  I doubt, if Life cost that much, that Dark Tower would cost only 2M more.  I think it should cost 80-90M at the minimum.

 

@EmpireCity do you happen to know anything about this?

[Water Bottle]

On the one hand, $32 million for the Mummy seems like a major domestic floppage for the movie especially with it's budget. On the other hand, taken as the next Mummy movie, it's OW fall from the last entry (Tomb of the Dragon Emperor) was pretty good. Only $7 million.

[Barnack]

20 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Judging by the trailer, I highly doubt it's that low  

 

It also depends how that production hell spending since 2007 is distributed, if sony inherited none of it, exchange rate helping south africa, South Africa tax credit, NY tax credit, canada tax credit for SFX, maybe not that low but with Rothman in charge could be pretty low, rumors were that Tom Hanks Inferno was only 75 million net (that would be like 120 million cheaper than Angels and Demon)

[grim22]

The Mummy is already being retconned a bit

 

 

 

Brendan Fraser's The Mummy Trilogy Exists In The Dark Universe - https://t.co/OF0sw3RLyu pic.twitter.com/IiU8ve5GwS

— Screen Rant (@screenrant) June 12, 2017

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The Mummy is already being retconned a bit

 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Wonder Woman will increase from estimates. I dont see it drop 30%. Most probably it will drop around 25%. So that means another 1m+ increase from estimates. 

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Downsizing is performing badly in test screenings; it's not a contender. 

 

I haven't ready that anywhere. 

 

 

3 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I heard the opposite and the footage killed at CinemaCon.  

 

This is what I had read in the trades. 

[MovieMan89]

Great hold for GotG and drops should stay pretty good for it now till July but will prob just miss 400. Could see it ending 390-395. 

Edited June 12, 2017 by MovieMan89

[a2k]

15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Great hold for GotG and drops should stay pretty good for it now till July but will prob just miss 400. Could see it ending 390-395. 

 

To be only about 15-20 short of an ensemble like CW is so creditable for GOTG2 (GOTG1 itself defeated everything except TA1 and IM3 in it's time).

Edited June 12, 2017 by a2knet

[picores]

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Great hold for GotG and drops should stay pretty good for it now till July but will prob just miss 400. Could see it ending 390-395. 

 

390-395m DOM translates into 44-45m tickets sold, first Guardians crossed the 41m tickets. so i think it's a healthy jump.

[dxmatrixdt]

the box office prophets weekly recap article suggested a possible theater expansion for Megan Leavey next weekend, so I am hoping it can get to 3,500 theaters and match 47 Meters Below. 

[James]

Looking at the BIG 6 + Lionsgate:

 

- Disney is obviously having another good year even if weaker than the last one and should definitely end up with over 2B DOM by the end of it. Thinking around 2.3B.

 

- Universal had a really strong first half, but the rest of their year looks pretty empty except for DM3 (Pitch Perfect 3 will only have opened for a few days in Dec before the year closes). Last year they made a bit over 1.4B and I am seriously wondering if they will manage that this year. Either way, I think it will be close either way.

 

- Fox also had a strong first half and their second half is also looking strong. They made 1.47b last year and I think they will come around 1.4B again this year.

 

- WB had a slower than I expected first half, but their rest of the year looks really strong. They made 1.9B last year and they should end up around the same this year, with an outside shot at 2B. Second place after Disney is guaranteed.

 

- Paramount is having a horrible year so far and I would be surprised if they close with more than 700m.

 

- Sony is also having a horrendous year, but at least they did not lose too much money imo. And with the rest of their line up they could actually come close to 900M-1B.

 

- And Lionsgate is having a really strong year for them. With the rest of their line up they could come anywhere between 800m and 1B. They will easily beat Paramount imo and Sony too if things go well. 

 

SO IT SHOULD GO LIKE THIS:

 

1. Disney - 2.3B

2. WB - 1.9B

3. Fox - 1.4B

4. Universal - 1.4B

5. Sony - 0.95B

6. Lionsgate - 0.85B

7. Paramount - 0.7B

 

Overall, Disney and WB continue to be the big 2 studios; Fox and Uni are medium sized; Paramount and Sony don't even deserve to be in the Big 6 anymore; and Lionsgate is doing very good for itself, even without big franchises. 

Edited June 12, 2017 by James

[a2k]

I wish HomeC does huge if only for the sake of Sony.

Despite how Spiderman turned out later on, I would give them credit for doing a great job bringing him to life on the big screen in a such a brilliant way.

[YSLDC]

This tells a different story.

Diseny - 3 profitable movies (3 big budget).

Universal - 5 profitable movies (1 big budget), 1 break even (big budget), 1 flop (big budget).

WB - 5 profitable movies (3 big budget), 5 flops (2 big budget).

Fox - 2 profitable movies (big budget), 3 break even (1 big budget), 2 flops.

 

[stripe]

50 minutes ago, James said:

Looking at the BIG 6 + Lionsgate:

 

- Disney is obviously having another good year even if weaker than the last one and should definitely end up with over 2B DOM by the end of it. Thinking around 2.3B.

 

- Universal had a really strong first half, but the rest of their year looks pretty empty except for DM3 (Pitch Perfect 3 will only have opened for a few days in Dec before the year closes). Last year they made a bit over 1.4B and I am seriously wondering if they will manage that this year. Either way, I think it will be close either way.

 

- Fox also had a strong first half and their second half is also looking strong. They made 1.47b last year and I think they will come around 1.4B again this year.

 

- WB had a slower than I expected first half, but their rest of the year looks really strong. They made 1.9B last year and they should end up around the same this year, with an outside shot at 2B. Second place after Disney is guaranteed.

 

- Paramount is having a horrible year so far and I would be surprised if they close with more than 700m.

 

- Sony is also having a horrendous year, but at least they did not lose too much money imo. And with the rest of their line up they could actually come close to 900M-1B.

 

- And Lionsgate is having a really strong year for them. With the rest of their line up they could come anywhere between 800m and 1B. They will easily beat Paramount imo and Sony too if things go well. 

 

SO IT SHOULD GO LIKE THIS:

 

1. Disney - 2.3B

2. WB - 1.9B

3. Fox - 1.4B

4. Universal - 1.4B

5. Sony - 0.95B

6. Lionsgate - 0.85B

7. Paramount - 0.7B

 

Overall, Disney and WB continue to be the big 2 studios; Fox and Uni are medium sized; Paramount and Sony don't even deserve to be in the Big 6 anymore; and Lionsgate is doing very good for itself, even without big franchises. 

 

I really want Paramount to recover from this awful year

[titanic2187]

53 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

I really want Paramount to recover from this awful year

they are not just being awful for this year

[DeeCee]

5 hours ago, Water Bottle said:

On the one hand, $32 million for the Mummy seems like a major domestic floppage for the movie especially with it's budget. On the other hand, taken as the next Mummy movie, it's OW fall from the last entry (Tomb of the Dragon Emperor) was pretty good. Only $7 million.

That's a very slim silver lining.