THE INCREDIBLES II | 634.2 M overseas ● 1242.8 M worldwide

[kayumanggi]

371.6 M THE INCREDIBLES (2004)

 

I expect incredible numbers for this.

Edited February 8, 2019 by kayumanggi

[keysersoze123]

This should hopefully breakout in China Where Pixar has always underperformed. I would say around dory numbers for now. Rest depends on trailers/buzz.

[PanaMovie]

450M OS

 

775M WW

[MattW]

I wouldn't bet on anything over 500 for now. 900-something worldwide

[kayumanggi]

I say 600 M. The world has been waiting for this.

[Quigley]

The first Incredibles made $2.4M in China in 2004. The total box office market is now about 45-50 times bigger. The Incredibles 2 should therefore earn at least $110M to match the market share of its predecessor. Could it beat Coco though?

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/incredibles-2-lands-lucrative-late-june-china-release-date-1115653

[FantasticBeasts]

600m at least.

[Joel M]

Better slow your roll with the 600m predictions, especially after Dory.

[peludo]

5 minutes ago, Joel M said:

Better slow your roll with the 600m predictions, especially after Dory.

Agreed. Unless China explodes, I do not see so enormous numbers. 450-550, depending mostly on China behaviour.

[Brainbug]

I can see Rogue One numbers for this - both DOM and OS.

[Tower]

24 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I can see Rogue One numbers for this - both DOM and OS.

I'd be shocked if this made more DOM than OS.

[Marathon]

According to BOM, the original had a DOM/OS split of 41.3% / 58.7%.

 

With that kind of split, I2 would "only" need $587m overseas to reach billion worldwide. 

 

If the movie does, like Box Office Pro have in their long range tracking, $425m domestic, I don't see the original's split holding (hard to see overseas going over $600m unless China goes crazy); with a 45/55 split the OS gross would then be $519.4m, with $944.4m worldwide. Using the über-pessimistic(?) Finding Dory split (47.3% / 52.7%) would give $473.5m OS and $898.5m worldwide.

 

And the possible shocker 50/50 split would of course give $850m worldwide.

[ThomasNicole]

well, this should do around $ 450M DOM

in China thread Olive are guessing $ 80-100M

 

I think $ 450M OS-C is likely, since the 1st made $ 368M back in 2004

 

I think I2 will gross $ 1B, but i'll be happy with anything over $ 900M

[ThomasNicole]

right now, i'm expecting $ 550 - 650M OS

[Quigley]

8 hours ago, Joel M said:

Better slow your roll with the 600m predictions, especially after Dory.

OS without China

Zootopia made $447M -> incl China it's $683M

Coco made $408M -> incl China it's $597M

Finding Dory made $504M -> incl China it's $542M

 

Notice how these numbers are turned on their heads when adding China.

It really does boil down to this single market and I would say that Incredibles 2 has the capacity to earn as much as Dory everywhere else. As for China, it really is an unknown but $600M is not out of the question or overoptimistic, in my opinion. Of course, something around $500M could be equally likely. We'll see.

[a2k]

400-500 dom + 500-600 os = 900-1100 ww looks like it atm

[Darth Lehnsherr]

I'll split the difference and go $550M

[Omni]

I'm going with 1.1/1.15B WW, with like a 41/59 split.

[Joel M]

15 hours ago, Quigley said:

OS without China

Zootopia made $447M -> incl China it's $683M

Coco made $408M -> incl China it's $597M

Finding Dory made $504M -> incl China it's $542M

 

Notice how these numbers are turned on their heads when adding China.

It really does boil down to this single market and I would say that Incredibles 2 has the capacity to earn as much as Dory everywhere else. As for China, it really is an unknown but $600M is not out of the question or overoptimistic, in my opinion. Of course, something around $500M could be equally likely. We'll see.

It might I guess but it's not exactly probable considering Dory's run. Leaving China aside I don't think it's that easy to do Dory's 500m OS-China. Dory was very well reviewed and Nemo is one of the most beloved animations ever worldwide, and Dory still lost to Nemo in half the markets despite a decade of inflation +3D. It's an animation sequel to a movie from 15 years ago. Not the same thing with Shrek2,DM2,Ice Age 2 etc. It's far from a sure thing that it would explode in all the markets the first one made very little because they were much smaller in 2004.

 

[Quigley]

2 minutes ago, Joel M said:

It might I guess but it's not exactly probable considering Dory's run. Leaving China aside I don't think it's that easy to do Dory's 500m OS-China. Dory was very well reviewed and Nemo is one of the most beloved animations ever worldwide, and Dory still lost to Nemo in half the markets despite a decade of inflation +3D. It's an animation sequel to a movie from 15 years ago. Not the same thing with Shrek2,DM2,Ice Age 2 etc. It's far from a sure thing that it would explode in all the markets the first one made very little because they were much smaller in 2004.

 

True, it's far from a given. But the first one opened in November and I would say that the summer is a more lucrative period in general, so it is possible. North America will clearly have one of the biggest boosts. For other countries, it could be anynoe's guess.